1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of SG5 in carbide process), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on March 24 was 6000 yuan / ton, down 1.84% compared with the previous day, and down 4.99% compared with the same period last year. On March 24, the PVC commodity index was 76.03, down 1.43 points from yesterday, down 23.97% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 30.48% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2、 Market analysis
Products: the domestic PVC market continued to decline on Tuesday. PVC futures fell in a row, driving spot prices down. On the foreign side, due to the recent continuous decline of crude oil market and the impact of foreign public health events, the demand for PVC has been greatly reduced, which has greatly affected the export of PVC, and the confidence of the industry is poor; on the domestic side, the downstream enterprises of PVC have resumed their work in succession, and the demand shows a slow growth trend, but the multi-dimensional system just needs to purchase, the transaction is limited, and most manufacturers are difficult to ship. At present, the supply side of PVC is a little abundant, the inventory is still at a high level, and the manufacturers cut prices more to facilitate the delivery, but the actual delivery is general, the focus of the transaction moves down, and the manufacturers may enter the maintenance in advance to maintain the cost. In the short term, there is no significant positive signal in the PVC market at home and abroad. Futures and spot prices have fallen frequently. The overall market is relatively low and the market is weak.
According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of March 24, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is around 5800-6200 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is around 5730-5900 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is about 5750-5900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 5780-5800 yuan / ton. The real deal can be negotiated.
Futures: pvc2005 contract opened at 5740 yuan / ton, with a maximum of 5795 yuan / ton and a minimum of 5575 yuan / ton, and closed at 5680 yuan / ton, down 125 yuan / ton, or 2.15% compared with the previous transaction, with trading volume increased to 227756 and positions decreased by 3152 to 112483. V2005 futures continued to fall, ending at a low of 5575.
Industry chain: according to the business community, although crude oil rebounds sharply, it is difficult to reverse the long-term downturn of oil price. It is expected that crude oil will still fluctuate at a low level in the near future. It is not ruled out that it is possible to continue to explore the low level. The prevalence of public health events may lead to a sharp contraction of economic activities, which cannot support the price of ethylene, so analysts of business data expect that the price of ethylene will keep a narrow decline in the future. In terms of calcium carbide, in late March, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly. The future market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fall slightly in late March.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on March 24, 2020, there was a total of one kind of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which natural rubber (0.21%) rose. There are 12 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are SBR (- 5.07%), cis-4.99% and PS (- 4.56%).
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of the business club think: at present, PVC futures are down, while the spot market is down. There is no obvious positive signal at home and abroad, and it is expected that the PVC market will continue to decline in the short term.