On March 23, the PX commodity index was 44.00, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 57.03% lower than the highest point of 102.40 on February 28, 2013. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).
According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is declining, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi is started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang is started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant is overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical is put into operation, the operation of other units is stable temporarily, and the operation rate of domestic p-xylene plant is stable In about 70%, the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, but the domestic market price of p-xylene has declined significantly due to the lower crude oil price. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On March 23, the closing price of PX market in Asia fell by 36 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 476-478 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 496-498 US dollars / ton CFR China. More than 40% of PX in China needs to be imported. Since March, the external price of PX has dropped by 200 US dollars / ton. The sharp decline of external price has a certain impact on the domestic market price of PX As a result, the market price of p-xylene fell sharply.
As of the 23rd, the main price contract of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was 23.36 yuan / barrel, and the main price contract of Brent crude oil futures market was 29.29 US dollars / barrel. Due to the failure of the production reduction agreement between OPEC and Texas, and the forced delay of the US rescue plan, the oil price fell to the lowest level since 2003. Starting in April, the world’s oil supply will have the largest oversupply in a single quarter in history, resulting in a supply imbalance of about 10 million barrels per day. An exclusive analysis by resta energy shows that the global storage infrastructure is in trouble and will not be able to receive more crude oil and products in just a few months. Upstream crude oil prices plummeted, while domestic p-xylene prices fell sharply.
In terms of downstream PTA, the spot market price of domestic PTA continued to fall, with the market average price at 3385.56 yuan / ton as of March 24, down 20.26% from the beginning of the month, reaching a new low in nearly 10 years. In addition, the downstream polyester gradually recovered, but the PTA inventory removal speed was slow. Only from January to February, the PTA social inventory accumulated more than 1.5 million tons, and the overall social inventory reached more than 3 million tons, which is a historical high in the past five years. The contradiction between market supply and demand is still prominent. International oil prices fell, dragging down the cost of chemicals and market mentality. Some downstream polyester units were restarted, and the comprehensive load was increased to 82.43%. With the introduction of resumption policies and government support policies, polyester construction began to rise slowly in March. However, in terms of price, the price of mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell sharply due to the cost drag, while the lower price in the downstream impacted the PX market, and the domestic price of p-xylene fell.
In the near future, the crude oil price is still at a low level, the downstream PTA market price is significantly lower, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not significantly improved. Business analysts believe that PX market price may maintain a downward trend.