OPEC said that despite the increasing demand for energy in the global economic expansion, its oil supply will continue to decrease in the next five years as the production of shale oil and other competing energy in the United States increases, the National Daily reported on November 5.
OPEC’s crude oil and other liquid fuel production is expected to drop to 32.8 million barrels a day by 2024, it said in its November 5 world oil outlook 2019. By contrast, this year’s output is 35 million barrels a day.
The growing climate activism and the widespread use of alternative fuels in western countries are making the intensity of long-term oil demand more closely examined. OPEC lowered its forecast for medium – and long-term oil demand in its report.
In the past few years, OPEC has been reducing its supply under a market support agreement with Russia and other non OPEC members. The resulting rise in oil prices has boosted production in non OPEC countries, which is expected to continue to limit production in 2020.
“The supply prospects of non OPEC countries have been significantly raised, especially the performance of tight oil in the United States once again exceeded expectations,” OPEC Secretary General Mohammed bajindo wrote in the foreword of the report
The US has pushed its oil production to a record high as the shale gas revolution has enabled new technologies to develop reserves previously considered uneconomical. OPEC’s oil supply has declined as a result of voluntary containment and US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran.
OPEC, based in Vienna, expects tight oil supply in the us to grow from 12 million barrels per day this year to 16.9 million barrels per day in 2024. Although expansion will slow, supply will peak at 17.4 million barrels per day in 2029.
OPEC is an organization of 14 oil producing countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, as well as Iraq and Iran. The organization lowered its forecast for global medium-term oil demand.
OPEC’s oil supply accounts for about a third of the world’s total supply, and the organization currently expects oil consumption to reach 103.9 million barrels / day by 2023, down from 104.5 million barrels / day in last year’s report.
In the long run, oil demand is expected to increase by 12 million barrels per day, reaching 110.6 million barrels per day by 2040, lower than last year’s forecast.