I. price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market fell in October and the spot price weakened. As of October 31, the main offer price of T30S by domestic producers and traders was about 8550.00 yuan / ton, down 3.57% from the beginning of the month.
|ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)|
II. Cause analysis
Upstream: in terms of upstream propylene, due to the impact of the policy of production restriction and operation restriction on the National Day holiday at the beginning of October, the price of propylene has been generally stable, with occasional downward trend. After the end of the policy, the spot prices of most enterprises began to fluctuate and fall on the 17th. At present, it is reported that the haze weather is aggravating, which has adverse effects on the devices and logistics transportation in the area. In the upstream, the explosion of Iranian oil tanker in early October led to an obvious rise in international crude oil, which had a certain effect on propylene. However, in the later period, the crude oil market failed to maintain the upward trend, which was relatively low and weak support for propylene. The downstream demand is general, which has no positive impact on propylene. It is expected that the price of propylene in Shandong Province will still decline in the short term.
|Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)|
Product: the overall price of PP market fell in October, weak callback. The upstream propylene market was weakened, and the cost support for PP was limited. In terms of supply, in the middle of this month, the units such as Anyuan united and Daqing Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. were put into operation again, with the domestic operation rate reaching 90%, and the peak season of PP maintenance was ended. New equipment capacity is also gradually put into production. In addition, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical are expected to be put into production in November. Qinghai Damei coal, Lihe Zhixin will be put into production in the fourth quarter, and domestic supply pressure will continue to increase. In terms of demand, the replenishment of downstream factories after saving has been completed one after another, and a few factories are seeking for bargains and just need to purchase, without centralized replenishment. Under the influence of environmental protection policies, it is difficult to further improve the downstream operating rate, which is still low compared with the same period last year. Merchants offer to follow the fall, let the profit go single, the floor trading is flat. At present, the speed of petrochemical de stocking is slowing down.
III. future forecast
PP analysts of business club think: the overall domestic PP price fell in October. The upstream propylene market is poor, and the cost end support is limited. The demand for replenishment of downstream factories has become weak, and the demand for replenishment is mainly rigid. Due to the increase of domestic operation rate, PP supply is large and price is under pressure. It is expected that the PP market will continue to fluctuate and adjust in the near future. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply of PP in the near future.