1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, on April 20, the nickel price rose sharply to 101216.67 yuan / ton, 3.14% higher than the previous day, up 0.40% year on year. Shanghai nickel opened at 98970 yuan, followed by a sharp rise in price, closing at 102300 yuan, up 3.29%. LME3 ended at $12385, up 2.61%.

2、 Market analysis

Supply blocked: at present, the production and transportation of nickel mining area in the Philippines is suspended until April 30. Last week, only 8 ships were loaded, far less than the 23 ships in the same period last year. If the supply is restored at the end of April, it is estimated that the metal loss will be about 30000 metal tons, and if it is restored at the end of May, the metal loss will reach 70000 metal tons. On the Indonesian side, the six lines put into operation this year are lagging behind the release increment of this month, Jinchuan The maintenance of two lines in Indonesia affected the supply of nickel and iron, and the epidemic also affected production efficiency.

In terms of inventory, LME inventory increased by 1242 tons to 330000 tons, while domestic inventory in the previous period decreased by 179 tons to 28000 tons, bonded area inventory decreased by 1700 tons to 17900 tons, and inventory in three areas increased by 363 tons to 276000 tons on a month on month basis, an increase of 61000 tons compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 64000 tons compared with the beginning of the year.

Downstream rise: the downstream stainless steel price rose nearly one thousand yuan in two weeks, which led to a substantial increase in spot price and supported nickel price.

3、 Future prospects

Future forecast: the supply of nickel is blocked, and the price of stainless steel in the downstream is rising, which forms support for nickel. It is expected that the short-term nickel price shocks are relatively strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the large scale list of business agencies, the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China rose and fell sharply from April 10 to April 18. The prices on April 10 and April 18 were 5957 yuan / ton, with no increase or decrease. However, the highest price was 9446 yuan / ton from April 12 and 13, with an amplitude of 58.56%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Product: the price of propylene in Shandong Province fell in shock last month, and dropped sharply again at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of more than 15%. On the first day, the price continued to decline by 100-200 yuan / ton, and on the second day, it still declined by 50 yuan / ton. On the third day, the price of some enterprises slightly increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. After the Qing Dynasty, the price of propylene increased steadily. On the seventh day, the price began to rise by 100 yuan / ton, and on the tenth day, it rose by 200-300 yuan / ton, while on the 11th day of Saturday, it rose by more than 1000 yuan / ton. On the 12th day of Sunday, it continued to soar by 1000-5000 yuan / ton, Monday After the sharp rise on weekends, the market may need to digest, and the price remained unchanged on the 13th. On the 14th, most of the enterprises’ prices dropped significantly by 1000 yuan / ton, and some of them recovered to the price before the sharp rise. On the 15th, the price dropped more than 500-1000 yuan / ton, and on the 16th, the price continued to drop by 200 yuan / ton. On the 17th, the price still fell by 400 yuan / ton. On the 18th, Saturday, the market made up for the drop. Saturday, the transaction was concluded Between 5850-6300 yuan / ton, the mainstream price is 5850-6000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, affected by the international situation, many countries have introduced production reduction policies to improve the crude oil market, but recently the crude oil price is not ideal and fluctuates frequently. Last Friday, the crude oil price rose slightly, but it is reported that it declined in the later period, so it has a certain negative impact on the future market of propylene.

Under the influence of public health events, the modified special material in PP is melt blown cloth raw material, and the price is soaring. However, PP futures returned to rationality last week after the previous surge. In the near future (April 10 to April 18), PP increased by 10.05% with an amplitude of 19.18%, which had less positive impact on propylene.

Recently (April 10 to April 18) acrylic acid market continued to rise, up as high as 30.94%, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.

In the near future (April 10-18), propylene oxide Market is similar to propylene market. After the rise, it fell, with an increase of 4.39% and an amplitude of 21.05%, which has little impact on propylene.

Recently (April 10 to April 18), epichlorohydrin increased continuously, with an increase of 9.74%, which had a certain positive impact on propylene.

Recently (from April 10 to April 18), the price of n-butanol in China fell slightly after rising, with an increase of 25.46% and an amplitude of 31.37%, which had a small positive impact on propylene.

Recently (from April 10 to April 18), octanol market also fell slightly after the upward shock, with an increase of 12.30% and an amplitude of 16.09%, which had a slight positive impact on propylene.

Affected by the epidemic situation, the isopropanol market, as one of the raw materials of foreign disinfectants, continued to rise steadily in the near future (April 10 to April 18), with an increase of 15.14%, which still had a positive impact on propylene.

The phenol Market in Shandong Province recently (April 10 to April 18) rose steadily, with an increase of 15.17%. However, the subsequent weakness has limited positive impact on propylene.

The acetone market in Shandong Province recently (April 10 to April 18) also rose steadily, up 29.55%, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of business and chemical branch, although the international crude oil market has reached an agreement to reduce production, the demand is not strong and the market is volatile, so the impact on propylene is limited. While the downstream PP futures have begun to return, and although other downstream markets have a positive impact, they are unable to continue. Now, the propylene price has fallen to the level before the surge, and it is expected that the propylene price will start to stabilize in recent days, not excluding the possibility of small shocks.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on April 20, the domestic PTA spot market price maintained a slight decline. The average spot market price was 3314 yuan / ton, down 0.90% compared with the previous trading day, down 49.42% year on year. The main futures market closed at 3412, down 64 or 1.84% from the previous trading day.

At present, due to the centralized volume of transactions at the end of March, the spot liquidity supply is abundant, and PTA continues to maintain a high level of more than 92%, with relatively sufficient supply. In terms of plant, 340000 ton PTA plant of Tianjin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was overhauled on April 17, and it is planned to be overhauled for one month. The 600000 ton PTA plant of Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was restarted over the weekend. The 500 thousand ton PTA unit of Taiwan Ya Dong Petrochemical line 2 started to stop for maintenance today (April 20th) and is scheduled to be maintained until July.

Crude oil market, last week, due to OPEC + production reduction less than expected, but not enough to offset the sudden drop in demand caused by public safety and health prevention and control, the crude oil rally was blocked and fell. At the same time, with the sharp increase in U.S. crude oil inventory and the decline of 9.3 million barrels per day global oil demand, the oil market was bad news, and the cost support was insufficient. However, due to the surging demand of the global mask market, domestic polyester staple fiber, polyester chips and other downstream production and sales are picking up, PTA has been supported by the rising demand. At the same time, after the production and sales volume at the beginning of the month, the inventory pressure of polyester factory has been relieved, and the polyester profit has been maintained at a relatively good level at present, the unit maintenance plan has been reduced, and the polyester starting load has been maintained around 83%. However, the overall transaction atmosphere in the downstream polyester filament market continues to be light, and the prices of mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are still stable. At present, the price of polyester poy150d / 48F is 5050-5350 yuan / ton.

Xia Ting, an analyst with business club, believes that the end support of crude oil’s sharp drop in cost has been weakened, the quotation of mainstream polyester factories in the downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has been temporarily stable, the overall production and sales performance is weak, the purchasing sentiment of weaving and texturing is still not high, and there is a possibility of further decline in the start-up of terminal links. Demand has cooled, PTA supply has continued to increase, and supply and demand pressure remains. PTA market is expected to continue to fluctuate and weaken.

1、 Price data

This week (4.13-4.17) the price of ground refined petroleum coke decreased slightly. According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries was 1080.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1055.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 25 yuan / ton in the week and down – 2.31% in the week.

On April 17, the petroleum coke commodity index was 82.06, unchanged from yesterday, 47.26% lower than 155.59 (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 22.68% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the overall delivery of refined petroleum coke this week is general, the operating rate of refining is increased, and the inventory pressure of the refinery is large.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is 22.76 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 19.87 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down by – 12.70%; Brent crude oil is 31.48 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 27.82 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down by – 11.63%. Although OPEC + production reduction meeting achieved production reduction, it was less than the expected quantity. In addition, with the continuous increase of US crude oil inventory, the demand of crude oil market is expected to decline sharply, and the international crude oil price continues to decline. Downstream: some calcined coke burning enterprises will produce, and the overall demand of downstream enterprises is general. The operating rate of downstream carbon enterprises is low, and the demand is general. The price of electrolytic aluminum is supported by cost, and the price has increased. According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market as of April 17 is 12016.67 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 15th week of 2020 (4.13-4.17), there are 5 commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top 3 commodities are liquefied gas (8.62%), dimethyl ether (4.47%) and MTBE (3.86%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are WTI crude oil (- 12.70%), Brent crude oil (- 11.63%) and naphtha (- 10.17%). This week’s average was – 1.58%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of petroleum coke of business association predict that the market price of petroleum coke in this week will drop slightly, mainly due to the increase of the operating rate of local refining enterprises, the increase of market supply, the large inventory pressure, the limited operating rate in the downstream, the general demand, and the strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke in the local refining industry will stabilize in the near future, and some enterprises will fluctuate slightly, with the price range of 950-1100 About yuan / ton.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, the spot nickel price fluctuated narrowly this week. The weekend price was 98133.33 yuan / ton, up 0.29% from 97850 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 4.6% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

The main nickel market in Shanghai opened at 97100 at the beginning of this week. Since then, the price is relatively strong. It rose sharply on Friday to close at 98970, up 1.71% in the week. Lennie closed at $12035 at the end of Friday, up 2.82% on a weekly basis.

In recent years, the price of stainless steel has continued to rise, the spot profit of stainless steel has been quickly repaired, and most domestic ferronickel plants are still in a loss state. Due to the tight supply of nickel ore and the recovery of downstream demand, ferronickel plants are reluctant to sell. In the near future, nickel supply end is affected by the epidemic. In April, nickel supply in the Philippines may decline significantly. The nickel ore inventory of main domestic nickel iron plants can still support January March. The nickel ore raw material inventory of some nickel iron plants is in short supply. The domestic nickel iron production may remain low in April and may.

3、 Future prospects

Future market forecast: the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is affected by the epidemic situation. In April, the shipment of nickel ore may be significantly reduced. The domestic port inventory of nickel ore continues to decline. In April and may, the output of nickel iron may remain low. In the later period, the price of nickel ore may rise to raise the cost of nickel iron. It is predicted that nickel may fluctuate strongly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, this week’s pure benzene continued the last week’s market and continued to rise, but the rise slowed down; the focus of the talks fell in the near weekend. On April 12, the price of pure benzene was 2850-3800 yuan / ton (average price 3180 yuan / ton); this weekend (April 19), the price of pure benzene was 3000-3900 yuan / ton (average price 3350 yuan / ton), 5.35% higher than last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: after last week’s bottom reading, the market speculation started to slow down this week. On Tuesday, Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton to 3050 yuan / ton. East China’s port inventory continued to accumulate. This week, the downstream factories in the north were active in purchasing, the spot supply in the market was insufficient and the price was high. The East China Shandong arbitrage window opened to support the pure benzene market.

3. Outside: on Friday (April 17), South Korea imported 345.67 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 27.34 US dollars / ton, up 8.59% from April 10; East China imported 372 US dollars / ton, down 4 US dollars / ton, down 1.06% from April 10.

3. Crude oil: OPEC + oil producing countries finally reached the largest production reduction agreement in history, but the strength was not as expected by the market, unable to offset the impact of public health events on demand collapse. This week investors returned to reason after a brief “euphoria” over the agreement to cut production and crude oil fell back. Brent fell $3.59, or 15.13%, this week from April 9, while WTI fell $3.79, or 13.15%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 69.83% and WTI by 58.81%.

4. Downstream industry: this week, the styrene market price fell, and the rising sentiment in the market dissipated. Most domestic enterprises reduced prices and promoted sales, and kept stable shipments. On Friday, Shandong’s price was 5150 yuan / ton, down 0.64% from last week.

Stimulated by the sharp increase in cost, the downstream enterprises of aniline stepped up their stock preparation; the inventory of aniline enterprises was cleaned up, and the price rebounded. On Friday, Shandong’s price was 5500 yuan / ton, while Nanjing’s price was 5600 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 9.93%.

3、 Future forecast

1. Crude oil: relevant people predict that the world crude oil consumption will shrink by 20 million barrels / day in 2020. If demand collapses, without strong intervention from the supply side, it will be difficult for oil prices to strengthen. Moreover, the short-term agreement on production reduction cannot offset the negative impact of the sharp contraction of demand, and the oil market cannot get rid of the dilemma of excess supply and demand. In addition, crude oil consumption enters into the off-season from April to may, and seasonal factors will aggravate the imbalance between supply and demand in the oil market, thus making the oil price face the risk of downward focus.

2. Market: East China – Shandong arbitrage open, East China region source of goods into Shandong, or inhibit its price. At the same time, the support of pure benzene was weakened. It is expected that the purchase of pure benzene will return to light in the later stage. Downstream styrene just need to take the goods, wait and see.

It is expected that pure benzene will go down next week, but not much.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, this week’s aniline was stimulated by good news, and the price rebounded sharply. On Friday (April 17), the price in Shandong Province was 5500 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 5600 yuan / ton, up 9.93% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials: after last week’s bottom reading, the market speculation started this week is obviously slowing down. On Tuesday, Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton to 3050 yuan / ton. This week, pure benzene continued the upward trend of last week, but the upward trend slowed down; the focus of discussions near the weekend dropped. On April 19, the listing price of pure benzene was 3000-3900 yuan / ton (the average price was 3350 yuan / ton), up 5.35% from last week. East China’s port inventory continued to accumulate. This week, the downstream factories in the north were active in purchasing, the spot supply was insufficient and the price was high. The arbitrage window between East China and Shandong opened to support the pure benzene market..

Nitric acid continued its downward trend in the week, and the production price in East China was 1516.67 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 2.15% from last week.

Products: stimulated by the sharp increase in cost, downstream enterprises of aniline stepped up their stock preparation; inventories of aniline enterprises were cleared and prices rebounded.

3、 Future expectation

Raw materials: East China Shandong arbitrage opened, East China regional sources of goods into Shandong, or inhibit their prices. At the same time, the support of pure benzene was weakened. It is expected that the purchase of pure benzene will return to light in the later period, and the market is likely to decline, but the decline is not large.

The maintenance of a 100000 t / a aniline plant in Nanhua is expected to benefit the aniline Market.

Aluminum market trend

On April 16, 2020, the average price of domestic spot aluminum ingots was 12016.67 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum returned to 12000.

According to the data of business agency, as of April 16, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 12016.67 yuan / ton, up 4.25% from 11526.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (April 1).

Cost support

Since the end of March, there have been about 6 domestic enterprises (including the plan) engaged in centralized production reduction and maintenance, affecting the production capacity of 445000 tons / year. Based on the current low price of aluminum ingots, some manufacturers avoid large losses through production reduction, shutdown and maintenance. Meanwhile, some new production capacity is willing to reduce, with a slight delay.

Although the price of upstream raw material alumina has moved down, the cost side support of electrolytic aluminum price is still strong.

Reduction of unsalable inventory caused by the epidemic

Due to the continuous production characteristics of electrolytic aluminum, there is a cumulative inventory difference between this year and the downstream. With the resumption of upstream and downstream production and the solution of transportation problems, downstream aluminum deep processing enterprises have sufficient aluminum water supply, and the orderly resumption of production of aluminum profiles, finished products and other industries, the slow-moving inventory of aluminum ingots is gradually reduced.

Aluminum enterprises adjust product structure flexibly to reduce cost and create efficiency

The decline of aluminum price has a great impact on aluminum enterprises. In the early stage, sales and inventory reduction will further lower the market price. Aluminum enterprises have to take various measures to reduce the purchase cost of raw and auxiliary materials. At the same time, some enterprises flexibly adjust the product structure, such as aluminum nose strips for N95 masks issued by Yunnan Aluminum research and Development Co., Ltd., to help win the prevention and control of the epidemic.

Expected market outlook

According to the historical price trend, the current price is not high and the cost is strongly supported. In the second quarter, the demand is expected to turn warm. It is expected that the near-term rate will be stable and strong.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic cocoon and silk market has been declining all the way in the past three months. As of April 16, the average price of the dry cocoon market was 88000 yuan / ton, 29.88% lower than that of January 16, and the average price of the raw silk market was 276500 yuan / ton, 26.85% lower than that of January 16. At present, the price of dry cocoon in Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province is 87000 yuan / ton, the price of raw silk is 270000-290000 yuan / ton, the price of dry cocoon in Guangxi Province is 89000 yuan / ton, and the price of raw silk is 279000 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction is still cold, there is no market for low-grade raw silk, and there are few transactions for high-grade raw silk.

With the sunny weather, spring cocoons in Guangxi began to be listed one after another. Since last week (around April 10), the first batch of spring cocoons in Xincheng of Guangxi began to be listed in succession in the first half of the year. On April 14, it was learned from some local cocoon purchasing units that the number of local spring cocoons on the market was gradually increasing, and the quality of fresh cocoons on the market was different. The price of factory purchase was based on the quality. At present, the price was basically kept at about 28-30 yuan / kg, which is currently at the peak of cocoon listing, and the local cocoons are continuously on the market 。 At present, the purchase price in Hengxian County, Nanning is about 26-32 yuan / kg, and that in Baise Napo County is between 26-40 yuan / kg. According to the different quality, the purchase price varies greatly, with good quality and high price.

It is learned from some cocoon stations in Hengxian and Xincheng that on April 10, the first batch of spring cocoons in Xincheng silkworm district this year began to appear on the market. Thanks to the warm winter of this year, the listing time was earlier than last year, and the spring cocoon collection and drying work in Guangxi was fully started. According to some local purchasing units, the purchase price is about 30 yuan / kg, down from last year. With the continuous downturn of cocoon silk market, some factories automatically lowered the purchase price of fresh cocoon. As of April 15, Xincheng’s purchase price is about 26-28 yuan / kg. The purchase price of Hengxian County in Guangxi is 25-27 yuan / kg, down 1-5 yuan / kg compared with the previous day.

In addition, Yizhou silkworm district and Liucheng silkworm District of Guangxi, as the main production area of sericulture in Guangxi and even in China, will begin to market spring cocoons around April 25.

In terms of import and export, from January to February, the total import and export volume of China’s real silk goods was US $255 million, down 24.18% year on year, accounting for 0.74% of China’s total import and export volume of textiles and clothing. The export volume was US $225 million, down 24.02% year-on-year. Influenced by public health events, the export of China’s real silk goods fell sharply in February, resulting in a year-on-year drop of 10-30% in the three categories of exports from January to February, of which the decline of silk products was the largest, reaching 30.26%. From January to February, the import value of real silk goods was US $29.513 million, down 25.41% year on year.

There is a serious shortage of orders in the downstream end textile market, and textile enterprises generally face greater operating pressure. Since the resumption of production, the utilization rate of steadily improved production capacity has gradually declined, and some enterprises have begun to reduce the start-up rate in the form of rotation and holidays. At the same time, due to the influence of insufficient demand and declining production and sales, many enterprises have overstocked inventory recently, and the pressure of capital turnover is prominent. Due to the demand for recovery funds or lack of confidence in the market prospect, many enterprises ship goods at low prices, which leads to the decline of silk price transaction price.

Business analysts believe that the traditional “gold, silver and four” demand peak season is difficult to flourish, the terminal enterprises cancel the external orders frequently, the internal single market is also relatively low, and the textile enterprise inventory is rising again. The consumption situation and market confidence have fallen sharply, and it is expected that the construction will be lowered. The demand lacks strong support, and the price of cocoon and silk will continue to weaken in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of maleic anhydride as of April 16 was 6466.67 yuan / ton (including tax), up 19.02% from April 13.

On April 16, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 60.92, up 1.26 points from yesterday, down 50.74% from 123.67 (2017-12-26), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.03% from 51.18, the lowest point on April 14, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: domestic maleic anhydride market price jumped this week. This week, the domestic maleic anhydride inventory is low, and the supply of solid anhydride in the main production area is limited.

Industry chain: the international crude oil fell, the downstream unsaturated resin rose steadily, and the terminal demand eased, but the order was received cautiously, and the purchase was mainly on demand. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of pure benzene has been rising continuously in the near future, and the price of pure benzene was listed at 3000-4000 yuan / ton on the 16th. Recently, the price of hydrogenated benzene continued to rise, and the main quotation range of the East China hydrogenated benzene market was 3400-3500 yuan / ton on the 16th, with an average price of 3450 yuan / ton. The price of n-butane increased with the increase of propylene. The rise of raw material price drives the maleic anhydride market.

3、 Future forecast

According to the maleic anhydride product analyst of the business association, at present, the maleic anhydride factory is in short supply, the supply of solid anhydrite in the main production area is limited, the downstream cost is mainly due to demand procurement, the impact of foreign epidemic situation, the crude oil price is still low, and the operating rate of maleic anhydride rose in May. The short-term supply side supports the price of maleic anhydride, but the demand is limited, and the maleic anhydride market is expected to have a callback risk in May.