Trade name: TDI

Latest price (June 22): 17525 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the average price of TDI market in East China today is the same as that of the previous working day, and the market situation is on the sidelines. The factory is mainly in a market-oriented attitude, the offer of the goods holder is temporarily stable, the downstream demand is weak, the enthusiasm for inquiry is general, the purchase in the market just needs to be followed up, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 17200-17300 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 17500-17600 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: in the later stage, TDI market will wait and see, focusing on market supply and downstream follow-up.

On June 21, the rare earth index was 854 points, a decrease of 1 point compared with yesterday, a decrease of 15.19% compared with the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 215.13% compared with the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index has declined slightly. The prices of some light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium series have declined. The prices of praseodymium and neodymium oxides have declined by 4000 yuan / ton to 943500 yuan / ton. The prices of praseodymium and neodymium metals have declined by 6500 yuan / ton to 1150000 yuan / ton. The prices of praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide, metal praseodymium, metal neodymium, metal neodymium and dysprosium oxide have declined by 10000 yuan / ton to 2535000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy fell by 10000 yuan / ton to 2525000 yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium metal fell by 25000 yuan / ton to 3290000 yuan / ton, the domestic light rare earth market price fell slightly, the recent procurement is general, the price trend of dysprosium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market fell, the price of terbium series fell, and the downstream purchase was mainly on demand. Myanmar banned exports, and it is expected that the domestic rare earth market price will decline slightly in the later period.

Price trend

On the 20th, the mainstream price of vitamin C was 32-38 yuan / kg for food grade and 32-35 yuan / kg for feed grade. The factory continues to stop reporting, and the actual situation is single and single. The downstream just needs to be the main, and there is room for price negotiation.

On the 20th, the price of vitamin a continued to fall. The mainstream price of feed grade vitamin A was 150-160 yuan / kg, and the European market price was 54-60 euros / kg. The market said that on June 15, Zhejiang Pharmaceutical VA and ve production lines were planned to be overhauled for 8-10 weeks in mid July, and the market attention increased. However, the overall market price continued to be weak and downward in the atmosphere of buying up rather than buying down.

On the 20th, the price of vitamin E dropped, and the price of feed grade vitamin E was around 82-85 yuan / kg. The European market quotation is 9.9-10.2 euros / kg, with a downward trend. It is reported that on June 14, the quotation of XinHeCheng VE was raised to 90 yuan / kg, the demand was weak, and the price of vitamin E was loose.

Aftermarket forecast

According to vitamin analysts of the chemical branch of the business community, the overall vitamin market is weak and the mainstream trend is weak. In the future, we will pay close attention to the status of enterprises’ opening and parking and the delivery of goods.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the domestic polyester filament market fell this week (June 13-17). As of June 17, various products showed different degrees of decline, of which polyester FDY fell the most significantly, by 2.21%, followed by polyester DTY and polyester POY, by 1.73% and 1.6% respectively.

Rise and fall of average price of polyester filament market this week unit: yuan / ton

Products, 2022-06-13., 2022-06-17., Up and down, Year on year rise and fall

Polyester POY (150d/48f) ., 9383., 9233., – 1.60%., 27.36%

Polyester FDY (150d/96f) ., 9813., 9596., – 2.21%., 27.30%

Polyester DTY (150d/48f low elasticity) ., 10521., 10339., – 1.73% ., 19.07%

At present, in mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, polyester POY (150d/48f) is quoted at 9200-9350 yuan / ton, polyester DTY (150d/48f low elasticity) is quoted at 10200-10500 yuan / ton, and polyester FDY (150d/96f) is quoted at 9400-9850 yuan / ton. In terms of inventory, polyester filament inventory is still high. Now the overall inventory in the polyester market is concentrated in 26-29 days, of which POY inventory is 25-30 days, FDY inventory is around 20-26 days, and DTY inventory is about 24-26 days.

Cost support was significantly weakened. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points more than expected. The market was disturbed by macro bad news, and the expectation of demand setback put pressure on oil prices. As of June 16, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $117.59/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $119.81/barrel. At the same time, with the improvement of PX supply, the stage speculation of PX may have ended, and the PX price fell sharply after rising to the high point since 2014.

The domestic PTA market rose and fell. As of June 17, the domestic market was 7289 yuan / ton, down 3.13% compared with the beginning of the week and up 49.71% year-on-year. In addition, the 650000 ton unit of Yizheng Chemical fiber was shut down for a short time this week, and the 2.2 million ton unit of Ningbo Yisheng was shut down for maintenance around June 12. Yisheng Hainan was restarted to 90%, PTA maintenance units were reduced, and the operating rate of the industry was increased to more than 76%.

At present, the terminal demand is weak, the startup rate of downstream industries is low, the weaving load is reduced to about 57%, and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent. With the rising temperature and poor terminal orders, the downstream weaving industry is expected to see a decline in construction.

Business analysts believe that the terminal transaction atmosphere is still weak, and most factories say that autumn and winter orders have not yet been fully opened. The demand side has not improved, the cost drive is weakened, and the price of polyester filament will maintain a weak trend.

On June 16, the rare earth index was 856 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.00% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 215.87% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index is temporarily stable. The prices of some light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium Series in China have declined. The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has declined by 5000 yuan / ton to 952500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium and neodymium metal has declined by 5000 yuan / ton to 1157500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 980000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is 1265000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium is 1.2 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide has increased by 5000 yuan / ton to 2545000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.535 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium metal is 3.315 million yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic light rare earth market is temporarily stable, and the recent procurement is general. In the domestic heavy rare earth market, the price of dysprosium series is mainly stable, the price of terbium series is temporarily stable, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. Myanmar prohibits exports, and it is expected that the price of domestic rare earth market will remain stable in the later period.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (June 15): 4700 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today’s acetic acid market price trend has been significantly reduced, and the average market price in East China has been reduced by 6.37% compared with the previous working day. Except for the maintenance of some acetic acid devices, other enterprises in the field are running smoothly, the market supply has increased compared with the previous period, the downstream demand is weak, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is general. Due to the resistance to high price acetic acid, the trading atmosphere in the field is light, and the enterprises have strong intention to ship. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, The quotation continues to decline, the mentality of the floor operators is weak, and the market situation is weak.

Aftermarket forecast: the short-term acetic acid market will continue to operate in a weak position, with specific attention to market transactions.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (June 14): 17200 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the average price of TDI market in East China today is flat compared with the previous working day, and the market is stable for the time being. The news on the floor was quiet, the factory was in a positive attitude, the offer of the goods holder was temporarily stable, the enthusiasm of the downstream inquiry was ok, the purchase in the market just needed to be followed up, and the market was in a stalemate. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 16800 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 17000-17300 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: in the later stage, TDI market will be on the sidelines, focusing on market supply and downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (June 13):8556.25 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on June 13, the average price of pvc5 in the domestic market was 581.25 yuan / ton, up 1.08% over the previous trading day and down 6.23% year-on-year. At present, the futures market is declining at a high level, the spot market is following a downward trend, downstream procurement continues to maintain rigid demand, the buyer and the seller negotiate carefully and maintain a wait-and-see state, and the mentality of the industry is poor. Up to now, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 3750-4050 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8250-8700 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to decline slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, aniline rose continuously this week. On June 2, the price in Shandong was 11200-11430 yuan / ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing was 11800 yuan / ton; On June 10, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12500 yuan / ton, up 5.51% over last week and 30.64% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

On the cost side, pure benzene: this week, pure benzene rose strongly. External factors: the recent strong rise in international crude oil, coupled with the rise in the price of pure benzene in the US gold plate, drove the rise of pure benzene in Asia. Positive external news gave strong support to the domestic pure benzene market. Domestic factors: due to the high external price, the import of pure benzene in East China port decreased, the inventory continued to decline, and the shortage of deliverable inventory led to strong short pressure and rising prices. In addition, in the early stage of the main refinery, due to production cost factors, the output of pure benzene decreased and the price remained high. With multiple positive effects, pure benzene exceeded 10000 yuan. On Friday (June 10), the price of pure benzene was 9900-10050 yuan / ton (the average price was 9984 yuan / ton), an increase of 8.91% over last week and 28% over the same period last year.

Nitric acid: domestic nitric acid stabilized after rising this week. On June 2, the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2683.33 yuan / ton, and on June 10, it was 2800 yuan / ton. The price increased by 4.35% compared with last week and 23.53% compared with the same period last year.

Boosted by the positive cost side, aniline rose continuously this week. However, due to the rapid rise of pure benzene, the increase of aniline was less than that of pure benzene, and the cost pressure of aniline increased.

3、 Aftermarket expectation

In terms of cost and pure benzene, the short-term crude oil and external price are still high, and under the influence of external price, the East China port will continue to have low inventory. However, under the pressure of high cost, economic production reduction in the downstream and the arrival of summer maintenance season for main products will lead to negative demand for pure benzene in the future. In general, pure benzene still operates at a high level, but there is no lack of callback possibility.

In terms of nitric acid, the supply of nitric acid is tight, and the price of nitric acid is expected to be strong.

At present, there is no inventory pressure for aniline enterprises. Enterprises are watching the downstream to buy gas and rising cautiously. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline prices.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on June 9 was 5158.33 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The year-on-year increase was 2.15%.

Crude oil prices continued to rise today, with strong cost side support. The total port inventory is slightly reduced, but the remaining space of storage tanks is limited, and American goods arrive this month. MEG port inventory will remain high in the short term. The external market of ethylene glycol has stabilized. Recently, the negotiated price of cargo is around 640 US dollars / ton. MEG operating rate has not fluctuated significantly for the time being. Affected by the continuous low purchasing sentiment in the downstream market, the production and sales are poor, and the increase of ethylene glycol cost is difficult to transmit to the downstream. In terms of units, the restart of Yangzi Petrochemical’s 300000 ton ethylene glycol unit was postponed to June 14. It is reported that the main production of EO and eg will be reduced to a low level in this later period.

Forecast: the cost is high but the downstream is weak, and the overall range of the market fluctuates widely.