Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (August 3):7650 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price trend of cryolite in Henan continued to run smoothly, and the average price of cryolite production was flat compared with the previous working day. At present, the upstream raw materials are still tight, the price is high, coupled with the high fuel costs of coal, natural gas and other fuels, the production cost of enterprises is large, the operation of on-site devices is mainly low, the enterprise inventory is tight, and the cryolite price is high.

Aftermarket forecast: the short-term cryolite market remains stable at a high level, and the aftermarket will pay attention to the market supply.

On August 2, the price of acetic acid in East China was 3512.50 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous working day. Last week, the acetic acid market operated weakly and stably, and the domestic market was mainly on the sidelines. At present, the downstream demand continued to be weak, the enthusiasm for entering the market was general, and the just need to follow up was mainly. The mentality of the operators was temporarily stable and on the sidelines, the enterprise quotation was stable, the on-site supply and demand were deadlocked, and the short-term acetic acid market continued to operate on the sidelines, with specific attention to market transactions.

On August 1, the average market price of TDI in East China was 15750 yuan / ton, down 0.63% from the previous working day, and the market was weak. At present, the market supply is stable, the shippers offer to negotiate shipment, the downstream wait-and-see mentality is mainly, the market purchase just needs to be followed up, the terminal industry is depressed, the operator’s mentality is cautious, and the on-site trading is mainly looking for low prices. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 15000-15200 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 15300-15700 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

It is expected that the short-term TDI market consolidation will be the main operation, and the price may be reduced slightly. Specific attention will be paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business agency, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners fell this week. On July 31, the average market price in Shandong was 4082.50 yuan / ton, down 3.14% from 4215.00 yuan / ton on July 25.

On July 31, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 317.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.31% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (2022-05-11), and up 374.70% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in refineries fell, the refinery shipments were general, the transactions were light, and the downstream procurement was mainly on demand.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuated. On the one hand, the EIA inventory data of the United States showed that the node refined oil unexpectedly surged during the peak driving season. In addition, Beixi No. 1 was restarted, and the easing of the European energy crisis brought bad news to the oil market. In addition, the European Central Bank raised interest rates, causing concerns about falling demand. It can be seen that the oil market long and short performance is quite sticky. Under the background of the global central bank raising interest rates, controlling inflation will bring downward pressure on all kinds of risky assets. On the other hand, the peak driving season in August in the United States may come to an end. According to the latest data, gasoline inventories in the United States have increased unexpectedly in the recent week, which also indicates that demand may end ahead of schedule. In addition, the repeated outbreaks in Asia and the blockade measures may bring some pressure to the oil market.

Downstream: Calcined coke prices fell this week; The market price of metallic silicon fell slightly; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose. As of July 31, the price was 18633.33 yuan / ton.

Analysts of petroleum coke of business agency believe that the international crude oil fluctuated this week, and the cost support of petroleum coke is limited; At the beginning of the week, the inventory of local refining enterprises was high, the shipment of petroleum coke was under pressure, and the refinery reduced the price for shipment; In the second half of the week, the downstream procurement was active, and the prices of some refineries were callback. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke may be weak in the near future.

On the 28th, the aluminum price hit the bottom and rebounded

According to the data of business agency, on July 28, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 18373.33 yuan / ton, Zha% per day, 3.64% lower than the average market price of 19066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (7.1), and 5.19% lower than the average market price of 19090 yuan / ton in the same period last year.

Fundamentals overview

On the macro level, the Fed’s expected interest rate hike fell, expectations were released, pessimism improved, and market risk appetite returned. However, the sustainability needs to be tested. After all, the expectation of interest rate hike in September still exists.

On the supply and demand side, the output continues to rise, and there is a certain pressure on the supply side. The positive news about real estate on Thursday stimulated the sharp rise in prices. On the demand side, the measures to stabilize real estate are conducive to the improvement of aluminum consumption in the real estate sector, but whether the relevant benefits can be realized and the degree of realization remains to be seen. In the absence of substantial improvement in real estate consumption, the recent cyclical destocking began to slow down. On the 28th, the domestic social inventory was 672000 tons, and the inventory accumulated slightly during the week. The overall inventory is still at a relatively low level. The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum inventory decreased by 4375 tons, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is still in place. It is comprehensively expected that the rebound of aluminum prices is limited.

At the raw material end, China’s alumina port inventory totaled 273000 tons on the 28th, an increase of 5000 tons over last week. Among them, there are 6000 tons in Lianyungang, 80000 tons in Qingdao, 87000 tons in Bayuquan, 52000 tons in Panjin, 38000 tons in Jinzhou, 10000 tons in Qinzhou, Fangcheng, Rizhao, Longkou and Caofeidian.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable. As of the 27th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 7975 yuan / ton. The on-site spot supply was sufficient, and the marketing situation was general.

The domestic phthalic anhydride market price trend is temporarily stable, the phthalic anhydride market delivery situation is general, the recent downstream demand changes little, the upstream orthobenzene price trend is stable, the plasticizer market declines, the on-site phthalic anhydride spot supply is normal, and the phthalic anhydride market price is affected by the downstream, and the price remains low. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers has not changed much. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the market is less than 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the market price trend is mainly falling. The downstream plasticizer industry market is declining, and the actual transaction is normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China fell slightly, and the high-end transactions on the floor were limited. The mainstream of the adjacent France source negotiation in East China was 7900-8000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of the naphthalene method source negotiation was 7800-7900 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8100-8200 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride is still in the market, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. The recent trend of phthalic anhydride market is stable, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will decline slightly in the later period.

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 26th, the average nickel spot market price was 188100 yuan / ton, up 1.35% from the previous trading day and 28.03% year-on-year.

London nickel closed down 1.45% overnight after the Federal Reserve’s policy decision in July hit. The global economic recession affected the rebound space of nickel price, but the short-term market resources were tight, and the inventory was at the low level over the years, which supported the nickel price. In June, domestic refined nickel imports were only 9274 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 46.6%, and the overall import volume was lower than expected. The volume of intermediate projects in Indonesia has increased significantly, some domestic iron mills have lost money and reduced production, and ferronickel mills have a strong willingness to support prices.

Forecast: supported by low inventory, nickel price is strong, but the supply and demand side and product prices in various industrial chains continue to be weak, and do not have strong rebound momentum. It is expected that nickel price will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of sulfur in East China was 1506.67 yuan / ton on the 25th, down 8.13% from the previous working day. At the weekend, the market was weak. The quotation of Shandong refinery was significantly reduced, and the price of some refineries fell 300 yuan / ton.

At present, the downstream demand is weak, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is general. There are low-cost sources of goods in the market. The downstream purchase is cautious, the shipment situation of enterprises is poor, and the inventory pressure increases. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, some price enterprises quote lower on weekends, the price difference in the floor is obvious, and the market mentality is bearish. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will continue to operate in a weak manner. Pay more attention to the downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated this week, with regional trends varying. On July 15, the price was 8230 yuan / ton; On Friday (July 22), the price was 8230 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 40.44%.

2、 Analysis and comment

The trend of crude oil fluctuated during the week, and the support of external news was weak. Mixed xylene fluctuated with crude oil. Mixed xylene regional tight supply situation still exists, supporting the market price mentality.

In the external market, mixed xylene in Asia fell this week. On Thursday (July 21), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was 943.5 dollars / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5 dollars / ton, or 2.13%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 940.5 dollars / ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.5 dollars / ton, or 1.83%.

In terms of crude oil, the market expressed doubts about Saudi Arabia’s ability to increase production, and tight supply is expected to support the rise of oil prices for three consecutive days. However, there were signs of weakening gasoline demand in the United States, which combined with the European Central Bank’s interest rate hike to suppress the economy, and oil prices fell. As of July 22, Brent’s price rose by $2.04 per barrel or 2.02% this week compared with last week; WTI fell $2.89 / barrel, or 2.96%.

Downstream, in the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (July 22), the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9550 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with last week and increased by 34.51% compared with the same period last year. As of July 21, the closing price in Asia was $1030 / ton FOB South Korea and $1048 / ton CFR China.

In the ox market, the price of ox in East China fell this week. On Friday (July 22), the price of ox in East China was 8300 yuan / ton, down 3.49% from last week and up 33.87% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong fell violently this week. The price was 8787 yuan / ton on July 15 and 8606 yuan / ton on July 22, down 2.06% from last week and up 8.1% from the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of crude oil, the oil market has been stuck recently, and the expectation of oil supply shortage is still there. However, global inflation, the accelerated pace of interest rate hikes by central banks, and the increased risk of future economic recession have suppressed energy demand. Crude oil long short game, the trend is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

The trend of crude oil is full of uncertainty, and the support of external news is weakened; Under the high pressure of cost, the follow-up of downstream products of mixed xylene is blocked. If crude oil and outer disk continue to weaken, mixed xylene may continue to decline. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory, external market, etc. on the price of mixed xylene.

On July 21, the mainstream quotation range of 1 × tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 194000-197000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 195500 yuan / ton, up 5500 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

On the night of the 20th, the metal market closed up across the board. In recent days, the continued weakness of the US dollar index and the macro concerns about European natural gas supply boosted the stock market, and the metal market was boosted and rose across the board. Lun tin rose 2.29%, Shanghai tin rose 2.74%. On the morning of the 21st, Shanghai tin continued to be the main player in the night trend. As of the close of the 21st, the main 2208 contract of Shanghai tin closed up 2.71%.

In terms of supply, smelters stopped production for maintenance in July, and the overall output is expected to decline in July. However, the downstream demand has not changed much recently, and the overall start-up of tin solder enterprises is still low, with fewer orders. The recent trend of tin price is still disturbed by macro factors, and it is expected that tin price will remain wide and volatile under the pattern of weak supply and demand.