price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market remained strong in early April, with some spot prices of certain brands fluctuating. As of April 8th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 15733.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.21% compared to the end of March.
cause analysis
On the supply side: In April, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises basically flattened, and the current industry average operating level is close to 84%. In recent weeks, the average weekly production has remained above 60000 tons, still at a super high level, and the on-site supply is very abundant. The mid stream inventory position is relatively high, and there is pressure on manufacturers to ship. However, some companies in the future have maintenance tasks, and there is an expectation of reduced supply, resulting in a strong trend of factory pricing. The market supply side is generally supportive of PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the price of bisphenol A increased in early April. Affected by the recent low point in the industry, some regions are experiencing tight supply, supporting the upward trend of spot prices. At the beginning of the month, both acetone and phenol experienced an increase in temperature, with a tendency towards bullish guidance within the market. However, recently, the prices of upstream crude oil in the far end have been hit by US tariffs, and both upstream and downstream materials have started to decline, which has dealt a blow to the confidence of industry players in the future. However, the downstream consumption documents of bisphenol A still have some price flexibility. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs has rebounded.
In terms of demand: In early April, the PC consumption pattern shifted from long-term weakness to rigid demand pattern, and new orders in the market basically returned to the same period in previous years. Downstream factories are returning to normal load and stocking up as scheduled. Be cautious in purchasing logic. However, due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site sources of goods, the supply-demand imbalance tends towards destocking. Merchants tend to have a wait-and-see attitude towards low positions, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. The circulation of goods on site is average, and the demand side is constrained in supporting PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In early April, the domestic PC market experienced volatility. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently on the rise, providing increased support for PC costs. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has flattened, and there is an expectation of supply contraction. At present, downstream demand follows the logic of rigid demand, and market trading has slightly recovered. The market is about to enter the peak season for maintenance, which may stimulate some new orders to enter the market. However, due to the impact of US tariff policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices, concerns about the future have increased among industry players. At the same time, the industry’s inventory is high, and there is great pressure for sellers to sell their products. Therefore, it is expected that the PC market will continue to be light and stable in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor relevant news on the foreign trade environment.

Returning from the Qingming Festival holiday this week (4.1-4.7), nickel prices have dropped significantly due to the impact of tariff policies.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 7th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 122683 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 5.83%.
Macro storm: China US tariff game ignites market panic
On April 2, 2025, the US government announced the imposition of “equivalent tariffs” on Chinese goods exported to the United States. China quickly responded by imposing a 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the United States starting from 12:01 pm on April 10, 2025. The tariff game between China and the United States has triggered a deep panic in the market demand for bulk commodities, leading to a sharp decline in the non-ferrous metal market.
Electrolytic nickel inventory surges: high inventory suppresses prices
On April 7th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 27166 tons, an increase of 420 tons during the week; On April 7th, LME nickel inventory was 202308 tons, an increase of 2004 tons for the week.
Waiting for significant improvement on the demand side
Stainless steel plants, which account for 70% of nickel consumption, are expected to produce 3.4845 million tons of crude steel from 43 domestic stainless steel plants in April, an increase of 0.45% month on month and 8.18% year-on-year. Some steel mills have reported production cuts, but production remains high and supply pressure continues. On April 7th, the benchmark price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 13805.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to the beginning of this month (13780.00 yuan/ton).
Market forecast: Customs policy panic, coupled with high inventory pressure, is expected to lead to a decline in nickel prices. Attention should be paid to nickel mining policies and downstream demand.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on April 3rd, the reference price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 10760 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as March 27th. Compared with March 1st (silicon metal # 441 market price of 11180 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.58%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the overall consolidation and operation of the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 is the main focus. Entering April, the overall performance of the silicon metal market remains relatively weak, and the focus of market negotiations is moving towards a lower level. As of April 3rd, the reference market price for metal silicon 441 in East China is 10500-10700 yuan/ton, and the reference market price for metal silicon 441 # in Tianjin is 10400-10600 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Sichuan region is 10400~10700 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Huangpu Port area is 10600~10700 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton.
analysis of influencing factors
In terms of supply: Currently, among the regions supplying silicon metal, the production in Xinjiang and Sichuan has slightly increased, while the production in the northwest region has decreased. The overall market supply has not changed much. It is reported that there will be a production reduction plan in Xinjiang in April. If the reduction is implemented, it is expected that the overall market supply will be reduced.
In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream performance of silicon metal is average, with downstream users mainly purchasing according to their needs, and the overall transaction atmosphere in the market is relatively weak.
In terms of raw materials: Currently, the price of silica in the market is stable, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. At present, the ex factory price of high-grade silica ore in Inner Mongolia is around 350-380 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of high-grade silica ore in Hubei is around 400-450 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of high-grade silica ore in Jiangxi is around 430-460 yuan/ton.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the enthusiasm for inquiries in the metal silicon market is limited, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The metal silicon data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly focus on multi range consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand news.

This week, the mainstream market price of melamine rebounded from a low level, and some companies raised their quotes by 100-300 yuan/ton. However, transactions were mainly for essential needs, and there was significant resistance to high price transactions. As of April 1st, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6050 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.42% compared to the beginning of last month (6137.50 yuan/ton).

As the main raw material of melamine, the price increase of urea will directly increase the production cost of melamine. In order to maintain profit levels, melamine companies may choose to increase product prices.
During the peak season of agricultural production, the demand for urea increases significantly, leading to a shortage of supply in the market and often causing prices to rise. As the temperature warms up, the demand for agricultural fertilizers is gradually released. March and April are the peak season for spring wheat to turn green and become fertilizer, followed by the peak season for high nitrogen compound fertilizer production, which has to some extent driven up the price of urea. As of April 1st, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1997.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.55% compared to the beginning of last month (1892.00 yuan/ton).
Although melamine production remains neutral, inventory remains at seasonal highs, and the sluggish real estate industry limits the growth potential of industrial demand. However, in certain regions or specific time periods, if the supply of melamine is tight and the demand is relatively stable or increases, the price may also experience a slight increase.
Local melamine enterprises may face challenges in transportation or shipping, such as rising logistics costs and limited transportation capacity. These issues may lead to a tight supply of melamine, thereby pushing up prices.
Reasonably arrange the production and procurement plans of urea and melamine based on market demand and price trends, in order to reduce costs and cope with the challenges brought by price fluctuations.
In summary, the gradual increase in raw material urea prices in the second half of the year and the slight rise in prices of local melamine enterprises under cost pressure are the result of multiple factors working together. In the future, we should continue to pay attention to market dynamics, arrange production and procurement reasonably, and strengthen risk management to address potential challenges.

On April 2nd, the average market price in East China was 297990 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.91% compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream price range for 1 # tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 298500-299500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 299000 yuan/ton, an increase of 12000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

The early opening of Shanghai Tin rose, with a slight discount on the spot market basis. By the second trading session, the price trend had expanded, and the main contract of Shanghai Tin 2505 closed up 3.89% on the 2nd.
The largest tin mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been shut down, and the earthquake in Myanmar has hindered the resumption of tin production, exacerbating the shortage of tin supply and driving up tin prices significantly. Futures prices have risen sharply, reaching new highs during trading. Buyers’ fear of high prices has intensified, and short-term buying enthusiasm has been suppressed. Downstream enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see approach, resulting in a decrease in acceptance and shipment obstacles, making it difficult to increase short-term market activity.
In terms of follow-up, it is heard that Xiaopai has a discount of around 500-200 yuan/ton for May, Yunzi Tou has a discount of around 200 yuan/ton for May, and Yunxi has a discount of around 200 yuan/ton for May.

After hovering at the bottom for nearly two weeks, the domestic acrylonitrile market price showed a fluctuating rebound trend towards the end of the month. As of March 31st, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is around 8900-9100 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 300-400 yuan/ton compared to the mid low point (8600-8700). The price for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 8900-9100 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 300-400 yuan/ton compared to the mid low point (8600-8700).

Supply phase reduction
Some facilities in East China and Shandong have reduced or undergone maintenance. According to statistics, as of March 27th, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 82.69%, a decrease of 6.49% from the mid month high of 89.18%. Therefore, there will be a temporary reduction in supply in the short term.
Industry inventory has slightly decreased
After the initial low price inventory reduction, the industry’s inventory has slightly decreased. According to statistics, as of March 27th, the inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was about 51000 tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the mid month high. Although the inventory is still high, there is no pressure.
Downstream demand has rebounded slightly
The capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile has rebounded, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate is 72.8%, an increase of 1.3% from last week, and raw materials are purchased on demand.
Market forecast: The domestic acrylonitrile market is expected to fluctuate and rise, with industry capacity utilization gradually decreasing. There are also many maintenance plans in the second quarter, and new production capacity has not yet been released, resulting in a temporary reduction in supply in the short term. Moreover, after the initial low price inventory reduction, there is currently no pressure on the industry’s inventory, which provides conditions for market growth. However, considering that the overall supply is still abundant, the short-term market growth ma

y still be limited.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic PVC spot market continued its downward trend from the previous month in March. As of March 31st, the average price of PVC in China was 4930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.44% for the whole month.

2、 Market analysis
This month, the PVC spot market continued its downward trend, with a slight narrowing of the decline. Prices slightly turned red in the latter half of the month, but the rebound was limited and the overall decline has not changed.
Specifically, on the one hand, due to the weak performance of upstream crude oil and ethylene, coupled with the suppression of the futures market, the spot PVC market generally experienced a bearish trend. On the other hand, there is a certain pressure on supply and demand, and the spot market has not yet escaped the downward channel. There is basically no rebound trend after a decline in the market during the month, and the operating rate continues to be high. Production continues to increase, and there is a slight surplus of supply. At present, there is no signal of bottoming out and stabilizing in the market. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of March 31st, the mainstream price range of PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4880-5000 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the price of calcium carbide has stopped falling since March, and the price range has been adjusted this month. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price increase of calcium carbide since March has been zero. Overall, calcium carbide lacks positive guidance and has limited support. With the weak performance of downstream PVC market, the price of calcium carbide may not stabilize and improve in the near future.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply and demand of PVC will continue to remain weak in the short term, mainly due to the sustained high operating rates of manufacturers and the high inventory levels of both enterprises and the market. On the cost side, the upstream price of calcium carbide is unlikely to rebound, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will remain weak and volatile in April 2025, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on March 28th, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 10780 yuan/ton. Compared with March 1st (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 11180 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.58%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has shown an overall downward trend since March. Entering March, the overall performance of the silicon metal market has been sluggish, and the focus of market negotiations has shifted towards a lower level. As of March 28th, the reference market price for metal silicon 441 in East China is 10500-10700 yuan/ton, and the reference market price for metal silicon 441 # in Tianjin is 10400-10600 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Sichuan region is 10400~10700 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Huangpu Port area is 10600~10700 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton.
analysis of influencing factors
In terms of supply and demand: In March, some silicon companies in certain regions experienced production shutdowns and reductions, while also resuming production and adding new capacity, resulting in a slight increase in overall supply of metallic silicon in the market. There is a certain supply pressure on the overall supply side of silicon metal, and the downstream demand for silicon metal is weak. The recovery of the demand side is slow, and the overall supply and demand transmission is hindered, resulting in poor market confidence.
In terms of raw materials: In March, the domestic market for metallic silicon raw materials, such as silica, remained stable. Downstream markets had weak demand for raw materials, and overall market adjustments were limited, providing moderate support for metallic silicon. At present, the ex factory price of low-grade silica ore in Yunnan is around 330-350 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of high-grade silica ore in Inner Mongolia is around 350-380 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of high-grade silica ore in Hubei is around 400-450 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of high-grade silica ore in Jiangxi is around 430-460 yuan/ton.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is light, and downstream factories mainly purchase for essential needs. At the beginning of the week, the focus of negotiations in the metal silicon spot market narrowly declined. During the mid week and weekend periods, there is a confrontation between demand side price suppression and supply side price increase. Some regions have a slight trend of offering discounts after increasing production, but there are also some regions where the cost pressure is low and the willingness is not strong, leading to a stalemate in the overall market operation.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices rose sharply in March. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 76846.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the copper price rose sharply to 81536.67 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 6.1% and a year-on-year increase of 13.83%.
According to the Business Society’s current chart, copper spot prices in March were mostly higher than futures prices, with the main contract being the expected price two months later, and the expected future price may be under pressure.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory slightly decreased in March. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 216750 tons, up 16.97% from the beginning of the month.
Macro wise: In March 2025, the global economy is facing many uncertainties. Concerns about a US economic recession have intensified, with global manufacturing PMI continuing to decline since June. The US job market is weak, and there is growing concern in the market about the US economy falling into recession. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has slowed down its balance sheet tightening, while the US dollar remains high, putting some pressure on the global copper market. The US government launched a copper import security investigation on February 25th, and the market expects that copper tariffs may accelerate their implementation. This policy is expected to have a significant impact on copper prices, driving them up. In addition, the economic stimulus policies and demand expectations of major economies such as China have also had a positive impact on the copper market.
Supply side: The global copper production growth rate is expected to slow down in 2025, with a projected supply growth rate of only 1.3%. Chile, Peru and other major producing countries have seen lower than expected production growth due to tightened environmental policies and declining ore grades. Chinese copper smelters are facing dual pressures of overcapacity and tight raw material supply. Some smelters will start equipment maintenance in March 2025, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. Global copper mining project reserves are gradually depleting, new projects are scarce, ore supply is limited, and the problem of overcapacity in smelting still exists.
Downstream: The new energy vehicle industry continues to develop, and it is expected that the global sales growth rate of new energy vehicles will be around 23.85% by 2025, which will bring a new increase in copper demand of 656000 tons. In addition, the demand for copper in new energy sectors such as photovoltaics and wind power is steadily increasing, providing strong support for copper prices. In 2025, the demand for China’s power grid will remain stable, and the production of household air conditioners from March to May will continue to grow rapidly, supporting the demand for copper. At the same time, although the global manufacturing PMI has fallen slightly, it is still in the expansion range overall, and the demand for copper remains stable.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper prices have mostly risen in April.
In summary, as the end of the month approaches, the US automobile tariff policy has been implemented and the possibility of negotiated exemptions has been clearly ruled out. Federal Reserve officials have warned that trade barriers will exacerbate imported inflationary pressures, and the strengthening of the US dollar will suppress commodity prices. As a result, US copper prices have fallen from their high levels. The fundamentals show a mixed pattern of long and short positions: the sudden force majeure event at the Altonorte smelter in Chile on the supply side, coupled with the tightening trend of global copper mine supply, still maintains stable cost support; On the spot side, there is still a strong demand for copper in the domestic market, but high prices are suppressing demand. As the end of the month and the Qingming holiday approach, there is a lack of downstream willingness to replenish inventory, and there is a strong fear of high prices among end-users. Against the backdrop of weak supply and demand, copper prices lack trend breaking momentum and may continue to fluctuate at high levels in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region stopped falling this week (3.22-3.26), with an average market price of 15966 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15825 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.89%.

Supply and demand side

Magnesium prices saw a slight correction in the last week of March. At present, the inventory pressure of factories is at a relatively low level, but the accounting results of overall operating conditions still show significant challenges. Supported by cost factors, factories have a strong willingness to maintain price stability. Most factories are still in the stage of reducing production.

At present, there is no significant sign of market demand recovery, and there is no major positive news to boost market confidence. Therefore, it is expected that the magnesium market will still face considerable operational pressure in the short term. Downstream users are only satisfied with maintaining basic procurement needs, and the number of new orders is relatively limited. In this context, some manufacturers choose to slightly lower their prices to cope with market changes, while others insist on maintaining current prices unchanged, resulting in low overall transaction activity in the market.

Raw material end

The price of Fugu 75 silicon iron remained stable compared to the middle of last week. The silicon iron market is currently in a stable state, with futures prices fluctuating upwards and then falling back. The spot market is slightly weak but overall stable in a stalemate. In the Fugu orchid charcoal market, orchid charcoal prices have shown a weak trend, and companies have successively implemented price reduction measures, resulting in a slight decrease in quotations.

comprehensive analysis

In summary, downstream industries have weak demand, mainly focusing on purchasing to meet basic needs. Market inquiries and transaction activity have decreased, and the transaction atmosphere appears relatively quiet. It is expected that the short-term adjustment of magnesium prices within the range will not be significant.