According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market for locally refined and hydrogenated naphtha continued to rise in March. As of March 31, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8401.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.31% from 8211.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month.

The market for locally refined straight run naphtha continued to rise in March. As of March 31, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 8291.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.25% from 8109.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month.

Product: The price of ground refined naphtha continued to rise in March. Currently, the mainstream price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha is around 8400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is around 8300 yuan/ton. The rise in international crude oil in March supported the naphtha market, with refineries actively pushing for an increase; The demand for downstream ethylene continues to be weak, and there is a lack of substantial positive news at the end. Market trading is mainly focused on the local refining and restructuring, and the market mentality is cautious.

Upstream: The crude oil market rose first and then fell in March, with a relatively stable performance in the first ten days. As of March 13th, international crude oil futures rose significantly, with a daily increase of nearly 3%. The main reason is that the US EIA inventory data is positive, coupled with Ukraine’s attack on Russian refineries, geopolitical tensions have pushed up the risk premium of crude oil. In the latter half of the year, the crude oil market experienced a slight decline due to the strengthening of the US dollar combined with an increase in US crude oil inventories.

Downstream: The toluene market rose in March. Affected by the fluctuation and rise in international crude oil prices, the cost of toluene continues to support; After the holiday, the profit margin for downstream disproportionation has increased, supporting the demand for toluene; The decrease in port inventory has supported the upward trend of toluene. The mixed xylene market continued to rise slightly in March. The downstream polyester industry has strong support for the high starting point, but the support for the phthalic anhydride and blending industries is relatively weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decrease. In February, the price trend of xylene increased, and the domestic xylene market had sufficient spot supply. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, and overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%.

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the high international crude oil market is supported by the cost of the naphtha market; However, currently there is a lack of significant positive news for the local refining naphtha terminal. Downstream demand is cautious in chasing higher prices, with a focus on on-demand procurement. It is expected that the local refining naphtha market may consolidate at a high level in the near future.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China remained stable this week, with a main price of around 13440 yuan/ton as of the 31st. The prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid have risen, the fuel market has fallen, and the cost of polyacrylamide has fluctuated. Enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally, and the market supply is abundant. The mainstream market of polyacrylamide is mainly consolidating.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market has risen this week. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9600 to 10000 yuan/ton. The price of raw material propylene has stopped falling and rebounded, with costs supporting acrylonitrile; Downstream ABS production is at a low level, with industry equipment load around 56%, maintaining only essential support for acrylonitrile; Acrylonitrile production has steadily increased slightly, with a slight increase in the supply of acrylonitrile.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the acrylic acid market has been on the rise this week. As of March 31st, the average quoted price for acrylic acid in the East China region is 6500.00 yuan/ton. The price of raw material propylene has risen, cost pressure has increased, and some equipment on the supply side has been shut down for maintenance. The industry’s capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the quotes from major factories have increased, supporting the market’s price push mentality. Low priced goods on the market have decreased, and downstream inquiries are still promising. Buying continues with a strong demand for follow-up, and actual market transactions are average. As the end of the month approaches, some devices undergo maintenance and there is a shortage of spot supply, resulting in a favorable market trend on the supply side.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has fallen this week. The market is dominated by oversupply, coupled with the downward trend in raw gas prices, leading to a weakening of the liquefied natural gas market.

Market forecast: In the near future, the prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid have risen, the fuel market has fallen, and the cost of polyacrylamide has fluctuated. On the supply side, the production of enterprises in the main production area was normal this week; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with little change in market transactions. It is expected that domestic polyacrylamide sorting will be the main focus in the near future.

Product name: Isooctanol

Latest price (March 27th): 9575.00/ton

On March 27th, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province dropped significantly, with a price drop of 625 yuan/ton compared to March 26th, a decrease of 6.13% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.14%. Upstream propylene prices have dropped significantly, with insufficient cost support. The downstream plasticizer market has experienced a significant decline, and downstream demand has weakened. Manufacturers are operating at a high level, lowering prices to attract orders.

Recently, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong region may experience a slight fluctuation and decline, with an average market price of around 9300 yuan/ton.

Aluminum prices fluctuated and rose in March

Aluminum prices fluctuated and rose in March. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on March 26, 2024 was 19460 yuan/ton, an increase of 490 yuan/ton compared to the average market price of 18970 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.58%.

Electrolytic aluminum fundamentals:

On the supply side, the production of electrolytic aluminum in March was higher than the same period last year. Currently, Shandong, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other regions have good profits and high operating rates. Yunnan region is expected to resume production of 520000 tons by mid April due to the easing of power supply shortages. In addition, Guizhou Anshun Aluminum Industry’s production capacity of 130000 tons, which has been suspended due to technological upgrades, may resume production by the end of March. In terms of production reduction, a certain aluminum plant in Sichuan started to shut down for technical renovation from March 10th until September, which may affect the operation and construction of 125000 tons of production capacity. Overall, there is an expectation of an increase in domestic supply.

Inventory: As of March 25th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic mainstream market was 913000 tons, which is a cumulative inventory of 98000 tons compared to 815000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic mainstream market on February 29th.

On the demand side: As the traditional consumption peak season approaches, the demand for downstream aluminum industries is gradually recovering; The production capacity operating rate of leading enterprises in the downstream aluminum industry has increased compared to the previous month, with a significant increase in the production capacity operating rate of aluminum profiles, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys; The production capacity and operating rate of aluminum cables, aluminum plates and strips, and aluminum foil are relatively stable. Recently, the outbound volume of aluminum rods from mainstream consumer areas in China has increased month on month, while the inventory of aluminum rods in various regions of China has decreased.

Cost side: On the raw material side, the production of alumina is higher than the same period last year, and the supply is relatively loose. Although the price of domestic bauxite is high, the market is highly dependent on imported ore. Guinea’s imports are smooth, and the price of alumina is relatively weak compared to electrolytic aluminum, resulting in stronger profits for aluminum plants.

Future Market Forecast

At present, the domestic aluminum ingot supply is at a historical high level, with relatively large actual production. Social inventory is beginning to accumulate, and the absolute value is lower than the same period, mainly due to a significant increase in the proportion of aluminum water. There are rumors in the market that Yunnan will partially resume production in late March, but the probability of large-scale resumption in Yunnan is relatively low, as hydropower has not significantly increased and new energy installed capacity has grown rapidly. However, the promotion of electrolytic aluminum resumption is limited. Supply changes, observe the situation during the rainy season.

On the consumer side, as the traditional peak season approaches, downstream demand may improve. The production capacity of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, aluminum plates and strips, aluminum foil, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys is gradually recovering with the resumption of production and work. The future spot trading is expected to improve from the current light trend. It is expected that aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the market will observe changes in the supply situation during the rainy season in May.

The price of plasticizers dropped significantly in March

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 22, the price of DOP was 10370 yuan/ton, a significant decrease from March 1′s DOP price of 11780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.97%; On March 22nd, the price of DOTP was 10475 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 11.79% compared to the price of DOTP on March 1st, which was 11875 yuan/ton; On March 22nd, the DBP price was 9212.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.16% compared to the DBP price of 9612.50 yuan/ton on March 1st. In March, the prices of plasticizers DOP and DOTP decreased significantly, while the prices of DBP decreased slightly; The price of high priced plasticizers has significantly decreased, while the price of low priced plasticizers has slightly decreased, and the price difference of plasticizers has weakened.

During the Spring Festival, the production of plasticizer manufacturers decreased significantly, dropping to around 50%. However, with the end of the holiday, the production of plasticizer manufacturers quickly recovered to around 70%. In March, the production of plasticizer enterprises reached a high level, and the supply of plasticizers was sufficient; Domestic PVC manufacturers are operating at a high level, with poor downstream demand support for PVC. The PVC market has high inventory levels, and PVC is expected to continue to enter the market. In March, the PVC market supported the demand for plasticizers, but with the arrival of the PVC Spring Festival maintenance season, the demand for plasticizers is expected to decrease. Adequate supply and poor demand have led to a significant decrease in plasticizer profits.

The price of isooctanol dropped significantly in March

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 22, the price of isooctanol was 11225 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 9.66% compared to the price of isooctanol on March 1, which was 12425 yuan/ton. In March, the price of isooctanol fell unilaterally, and in March, the equipment of isooctanol enterprises resumed operation. The supply of isooctanol increased, and imported isooctanol arrived at ports from February to March, increasing the pressure on the supply of isooctanol; In terms of demand, downstream plasticizer manufacturers are operating at high loads, and there is an upward trend in demand for isooctanol. In addition, the increase in exports of isooctanol provides certain positive support for isooctanol. The supply and demand of isooctanol have increased, and the isooctanol market may remain weak. With the slow decline of inventory in the isooctanol market, the expected decline in the future isooctanol market is expected to slow down.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell in March

According to the analysis system of n-butanol commodity market by Business Society, as of March 22, the price of n-butanol was 7733.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.75% from the price of n-butanol on March 1, which was 8383.33 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the overall downstream production of n-butanol has significantly declined, while n-butanol enterprises have maintained a relatively high level of production. The inventory of n-butanol has accumulated, and the import volume of n-butanol has increased. With the gradual return of downstream production of n-butanol, downstream stocking has increased, and the demand for n-butanol has rebounded. However, n-butanol inventory has remained high, coupled with the problem of n-butanol inventory accumulation in February, the n-butanol market is still oversupplied. With the continuous decline in the price of n-butanol, downstream customers have increased their willingness to stock on dips, and the trading volume of low-priced n-butanol has increased. At present, n-butanol manufacturers have a strong willingness to reduce inventory at low prices, and it is expected that n-butanol prices will operate weakly in the future.

Downstream PVC prices fluctuate and rise in an N-shaped pattern

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 22, the PVC quotation was 5654 yuan/ton, a slight fluctuation and increase of 0.82% compared to the PVC price of 5608 yuan/ton on March 1; The price of PVC has increased significantly by 1.58% compared to March 15th, with a price of 5566 yuan/ton. In terms of inventory, domestic PVC social inventory is high, PVC downstream production is low, order continuity is not strong, PVC manufacturers have a lot of inventory waiting to be stored, and PVC inventory continues to maintain high levels. In terms of operating rate, PVC manufacturers have a high operating rate, and spring maintenance has not yet started. Some enterprises are not actively engaged in maintenance, and the operating rate of PVC is higher than the same period last year. In terms of demand, the increase in domestic demand is limited, and PVC exports are exchanged for quantity at price. The overall demand for PVC in the market is weak, and inventory removal is slow. High priced PVC sources are still difficult to trade. In March, there is still support for PVC’s demand for plasticizers, but with the arrival of the PVC Spring Festival maintenance season, PVC manufacturers have lower expectations of starting production, leading to a decrease in PVC’s demand for plasticizers. The downward pressure on the demand side of plasticizers in the future is increasing.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials, the price of isooctanol has significantly decreased, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, the price of n-butanol has significantly decreased, and the cost of plasticizers has decreased. Subsequently, the expected decline in prices of isooctanol and n-butanol in the market has slowed down; In terms of supply, plasticizer manufacturers maintained a high level of production in March, with sufficient supply of plasticizers. With a significant drop in plasticizer prices, which is far greater than the decline in raw material products, plasticizer profits have decreased, and the enthusiasm of plasticizer manufacturers to start production has decreased. The expected operating load of plasticizer manufacturers in the future will decrease; In terms of demand, PVC has strong support for plasticizers in March, with PVC manufacturers operating at a high level and PVC social inventory at a high level. However, PVC demand growth is limited, and PVC inventory accumulation is severe; In April, PVC manufacturers had limited support for the demand for plasticizers. In addition, as April entered the traditional Spring Festival maintenance season, PVC manufacturers had increased expectations for maintenance, resulting in weak demand for plasticizers in the PVC market in the future.

In the future, the cost decline of plasticizers has slowed down, and supply and demand expectations have both decreased. However, plasticizer manufacturers are slow to destock, and the situation of plasticizer oversupply is difficult to change. Downstream customers have a strong resistance to high priced plasticizers, and it is expected that high priced plasticizer prices will fluctuate and fall in the future, while low priced plasticizer prices will mainly stabilize.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 21, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7325.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68% compared to March 15 (the reference price of melamine was 7375.00 yuan).

During this period (3.15-3.21), the melamine market continued to decline, and the supply-demand contradiction in the market still existed. Small transactions were mainly in demand, and some companies were under pressure to ship, resulting in price reductions. On March 21, the mainstream ex factory price reference for melamine in East China was around 6600-6700 yuan/ton, with actual orders mainly negotiated.

Cost side: According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyishe, the reference price for urea on March 20th was 2501.67, a decrease of 0.73% compared to March 1st (2520.00). Recently, the urea market in Shandong has slightly declined, providing moderate support for the melamine market. Short term cost side support may still be limited.

Supply and demand side: Some companies on the supply side are experiencing fluctuations in their equipment, and the industry is still operating at a high level of around 70%. The market supply is sufficient, but the demand side is following slowly. The downstream board market is mainly affected by the real estate industry, and the demand for melamine in the market is average. The demand side is generally weak, and companies are willing to offer more profits and take orders. The downstream procurement mentality is still cautious, and in the short term, the market supply is strong and the demand is weak, which may continue.

In summary, there is still insufficient short-term market support, but in the early stage, the price of melamine has continued to weaken, and companies have weak intentions to sell low. Downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious, and the market atmosphere is average. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may remain stagnant and wait-and-see. The specific trend still needs to pay attention to market news guidance.

The price of ethylene oxide slightly increased in mid March. According to data from Business Society, as of March 21st, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China was 6900 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6700-6900 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6900 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 6900 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China market is 6800 yuan/ton.

At present, the domestic production of ethylene oxide has started relatively steadily, and there are expectations of tight supply in some regions. In the short term, there are some maintenance plans for individual units that need to be fulfilled.

Overview of the ethylene oxide industry chain

The prices of downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomers have rebounded, and the prices of related products such as ethylene glycol have started to loosen recently. Overall, the demand for downstream monomers is average, while the demand for polyethers, esters, and other materials for purchasing ethylene oxide is good.

Future market forecast

The demand for downstream products of ethylene oxide may have positive expectations with the start of terminal real estate construction. The supply side is affected by factors related to production conversion, resulting in an improvement in supply expectations. However, overall, the downstream infrastructure industry is cautious about high priced monomers, and it is expected that the upward space is relatively limited, which may suppress the upward trend of raw material ethylene oxide. In the short term, it is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will continue to fluctuate strongly.

Product Name: PVC

Latest price: 5642 yuan/ton

Analysis point: On March 20th, the spot market price of PVC continued to rise. The significant increase in futures prices has boosted confidence in the spot market, with most manufacturers raising prices and distributors following suit, making it difficult to find low prices in the market. At present, the quotation for PVC SG5 is mostly around 5450-5790 yuan/ton. On site traders are relatively active, while downstream processing enterprises have a calm demand and are more cautious in market transactions.

It is expected that the PVC spot market will operate strongly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic tetrachloroethylene market has been operating steadily this week (3.11-3.15). The average market price at the beginning of the week is 5012 yuan/ton, and the average weekend price is 5050 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.75%.

2、 Analysis and Review

The price of tetrachloroethylene remained stable among major manufacturers this week, with mainstream prices ranging from 5000 to 5200 yuan/ton. Dealers closely follow the market’s upward trend, with tight supply and stable market operation. Due to the variety structure of downstream refrigerant R125, the production enterprise has a low quota and is mostly used for mixing. The enterprise has a strong reluctance to sell and a strong willingness to raise prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s tetrachloroethylene analyst believes that demand continues to support, and it is expected that the tetrachloroethylene market will have the possibility of stabilizing and exploring an increase in the future.

Aluminum prices slightly rebounded at the end of the month

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on March 15, 2024 was 19190 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan/ton from the average market price of 18970 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.16%.

Macro positive aluminum price resonance

The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in June is strong, and the non-ferrous sector continues to strengthen. As an international product with strong financial attributes, aluminum prices slightly rebounded in March.

Fundamentals of supply and demand: Strong supply-demand relationship

At present, the domestic aluminum ingot supply is at a historical high level, and the actual production is relatively large. Although the social inventory is lower than expected, it is mainly due to the significant increase in the proportion of aluminum water. There are rumors in the market that Yunnan will partially resume production in late March, but the probability of large-scale resumption in Yunnan is relatively low, as hydropower has not significantly increased and new energy installed capacity has grown rapidly. However, the promotion of electrolytic aluminum resumption is limited.

On the consumer side, downstream work continues to resume, and orders for other sectors except for building profiles are still available. Downstream aluminum rod production continues to rise, while the recovery speed of aluminum profiles and aluminum plates is slightly weak. The domestic meeting in March continues to release positive consumer sentiment.

Future Market Forecast

The traditional peak season for consumption is approaching, and downstream demand may improve. The production capacity and operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, aluminum plates and strips, aluminum foils, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys are gradually recovering with the resumption of production and work. The future spot trading is expected to improve from the current light trend. It is expected that aluminum prices will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.