According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene has recently risen due to cost support (1.5-1.26). On January 26th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6960 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.19% from 6680 yuan/ton on January 26th.
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International crude oil prices fluctuate higher, with support from toluene cost and external prices
Recently (1.5-1.26), international crude oil prices have risen due to factors such as the Red Sea situation, which has provided short-term support for the cost of toluene. As of January 26th, WTI03 contract settlement is $77.36 per barrel; Brent 04 contract settlement is $81.96 per barrel. With a slight rebound in crude oil prices, the price of toluene in Asia has rebounded, providing some support for the domestic market. As of January 26, February, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 860-862 US dollars/ton.
Starting production of xylene temporarily stabilizes toluene and obtains necessary support
The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance. The spot supply is normal. This week, the international crude oil price trend has fluctuated, and the external PX price has not changed much. As of the 26th, the closing price in Asia is 1000-1002 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1041-1043 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region is normal, and the price range of crude oil has fluctuated recently. The domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.
Small fluctuations in the domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand
Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a low season, with weak downstream inquiries and weak demand for toluene mixed blending. As of late January, the operating rate of refinery facilities nationwide was around 7.3%.
Continuous increase in toluene port inventory and increased supply pressure
During the off-season of demand, domestic toluene port inventories have significantly increased. As of January 26th, toluene inventories in East China were 90000 tons and in South China were 14000 tons, a significant increase from 81000 tons in early January. This has increased the pressure on toluene supply. The domestic production of toluene continued to increase compared to the beginning of the month, and as of late January, the production rate was around 740%.
Market forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices are fluctuating widely, with support for the cost of toluene; Secondly, downstream demand support during the off-season is relatively weak; Finally, the inventory of toluene at the port increased and there was a slight increase in production, but the pressure on the supply side of toluene remains. With weak supply and demand support and cost support, it is expected that the toluene market will experience narrow fluctuations and consolidation in the later period.
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