Ethylene glycol rose 4.03% in September and may gradually return to fundamentals in the future

List of ethylene glycol prices


According to data from Business News Agency, on September 19th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4303.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.03% compared to the beginning of the month. The prices in various regions are as follows:


The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4250 and 4300 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4250 yuan/ton, while the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 4100 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4350 yuan/ton.


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The ex factory tax price of coal based polyester grade ethylene glycol is low, and the current price range is between 3680-3790 yuan/ton.


On September 18th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 496 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is $499 per ton.


Ethylene glycol fundamentals


Strong cost support


Recently, oil prices, coal prices, ethane prices, and ethylene prices have all shown a strong operating trend. As raw materials for various paths, they have also brought cost support, providing strong positive guidance for the overall price valuation of ethylene glycol.


Port accumulation has slightly eased


In September 2023, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main port of East China was slightly depleted. As of September 18, 2023, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1.0165 million tons, which is 1.1448 million tons compared to the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on August 31 and 128300 tons removed from the warehouse.


The port inventory is high, and the main inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still above 1 million tons. However, the pressure on accumulated inventory has eased recently, mainly due to the fact that many imported ethylene glycol goods from the United States have failed quality inspection. In addition, the subsequent arrival volume was to some extent affected by the expected maintenance of overseas devices from September to October, which has weakened the pressure on port supply of goods.


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However, the domestic supply is still at a relatively high level, with a relatively large production capacity and a restart of equipment in the early stage. Although there are maintenance expectations in the near future, there are expectations of a slight contraction at a high level in the trend;


Downstream polyester operating rate decreases


Supported by the high start-up rate of polyester in the early stage, ethylene glycol still shows a surplus state despite exceeding the expected downstream start-up rate of polyester; As the Asian Games approaches, the actual operating rates of downstream polyester and textile factories have decreased, and the current polyester load is around 88.9%. The specific change devices are as follows (incomplete statistics):


Several polyester units in Xiaoshan have been shut down, with a total production capacity of 2.58 million tons, all of which are filament or chip production units; The two major factories in Xiaoshan will be shut down for maintenance on the evening of the 17th and are expected to restart on October 8th; In addition, a set of 150000 ton/year polyester bottle chip device in Central China has been shut down due to some reasons, and the restart time is uncertain.


Future market forecast


Ethylene glycol by-products have a large attribute, and in the process of integrated devices, cost considerations are weakened. In the case of high profits from other products, it is difficult to make significant changes in the supply and demand fundamentals. In the early stage, the ethylene glycol market was mainly dominated by cost factors, and in the later stage, it will gradually return to fundamental reality. It is expected that short-term ethylene glycol prices will still fluctuate strongly, but the upward space will narrow.