Monthly Archives: January 2022

On January 13, domestic PVC prices rose

1、 Price trend

Latest price (January 13): 8280 yuan / ton


Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, the average domestic spot price of pvcc5 was 8280 yuan / ton on January 13, up 0.24% compared with the previous day, and the enterprise quotation increased slightly, about 50-100 yuan / ton. The futures rebound has driven the spot market. At present, the price of pvc5 calcium carbide method remains in the range of 8000-8600 yuan / ton, and the raw material price has temporarily stabilized to around 4570 yuan / ton.


The PVC market is expected to adjust in a narrow range.

Ethylene oxide daily review (2022 / 1 / 12)

The price of ethylene oxide is stable. The ex factory price in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 7300 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price in Central China is 7400 yuan / ton.


In terms of upstream ethylene, the external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was US $975 / T and that in Southeast Asia was US $965 / T, which was flat compared with the previous trading day.


The upstream ethylene price fell steadily. I heard that the domestic ethylene price fell today and the cost side support weakened. The supply and demand of ethylene oxide in the region is uneven, some units are shut down and production is reduced, and the supply of goods in East China is tight. The downstream monomer demand is light, the stock market has not yet come, the price has stabilized, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.


Long short game, temporary stability

On January 11, the sulfur market price was sorted upward

Trade name: sulfur


Latest price (January 11): 2096.67 yuan / ton


Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of sulfur in East China today increased by 1.78% compared with yesterday. The domestic sulfur market was stable and upward. Refineries in various regions adjusted their quotation according to their shipment and inventory, which increased by different ranges compared with the previous working day. Solid and liquid sulfur in Shandong increased by 20-30 yuan / ton at the same time; In East China, the fixed sulfur is increased by 60-80 yuan / ton, and the liquid sulfur is increased by 20 yuan / ton; Sulfur fixation in North China was increased by 40-50 yuan / ton, and liquid sulfur was temporarily stable. There is no inventory pressure in domestic refineries, downstream sulfuric acid is purchased on demand, the market demand for liquid sulfur is weak, and the price is slightly adjusted; The demand for sulfur in downstream phosphate fertilizer has increased, the shipment of enterprises is smooth, the market progress of winter storage fertilizer is good, and the price of sulfur fixation has increased.


Future forecast: the future sulfur market may continue the upward trend, with specific attention to the downstream follow-up.

Ethylene glycol daily review (20220110)

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on January 10 was 5108.33 yuan / ton.


In terms of devices, a 150000 ton C device in Xinjiang Tianying was shut down for maintenance in early January and is expected to be around 2 months. A new 800000 ton ethylene glycol unit in Zhenhai, Ningbo is expected to be put into operation near January 12, and its front cracking has been put into trial operation on January 5. A 750000 ton Weg unit 2# line of Zhejiang Petrochemical stopped near January 3, and the restart time is uncertain. Yangzi’s 300000 ton ethylene glycol production capacity recently shut down due to equipment reasons, and the shutdown time is expected to be around the 10th.


The restriction of international turbulence and epidemic situation on the demand side has led to repeated horizontal jumps in crude oil prices, fluctuations in the mentality of naphtha market, cautious pursuit of higher prices, and continuous rise in thermal coal. Downstream polyester demand is soft, PTA market is declining, and the demand side is weak.


Forecast: MEG storage callback pressure.

Magnesium prices rose steadily after the New Year Festival (1.3-1.7)

Trend of metallic magnesium in recent March


Market analysis this week


In the first week of the new year, the magnesium market was running steadily. After the festival, there are many inquiries from downstream customers. The mainstream ex factory quotation including tax in the market is about 51000 yuan / ton. With the promotion of high prices, the market procurement also tends to be mild, and the procurement rhythm slows down gradually. In terms of quotation, the price of magnesium has increased by 3500 yuan / ton since January. By the 7th, the average price of magnesium ingot remained at 52500 yuan / ton, with an obvious upward trend. According to the traders, they are not willing to offer a high price and ship at a low price. They are unwilling to ship if it is lower than 51000 yuan / ton.


As of January 7, the specific price range of each region is as follows: ex factory tax cash exchange in fugu area is 51400-51500 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Ningxia is 51400-51500 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Taiyuan is 51500-51600 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Wenxi area is 51600-51700 yuan / ton.


The environmental protection policy has not been implemented yet


At present, both upstream and downstream magnesium ingots are paying attention to the rectification plan, waiting for the introduction of relevant policies and making further plans. Relatively speaking, it is difficult for magnesium ingots to fall back, different environmental protection news flows out from the market, the hype atmosphere is very high, and magnesium ingot merchants have a strong bullish mentality.


Need to be cautious


The downstream demand is flat, mainly for customers with just needs. At present, the magnesium ingot Market is still in a high shock stage. Although many merchants hold a bullish attitude, the demand side indicates that the procurement risk is high, and is very cautious about high price procurement, with more transactions than just needs.


Future forecast


The downstream demand is flat, mainly for customers with just needs. At present, the magnesium ingot Market is still in a high shock stage. Although many merchants hold a bullish attitude, the demand side indicates that the procurement risk is high, and is very cautious about high price procurement, with more transactions than just needs.

On January 6, the TDI market was strong

Trade name: TDI


Latest price (January 6): 16900.00 yuan / ton


Key points of analysis: today, the average price of TDI market in East China increased by 3.52% compared with yesterday. The domestic TDI market is relatively strong, the on-site supply continues to be tight, the spot filling is slow, the restart time of Fujian unit is delayed, the factory has strong intention to support the market, the offer of goods holders continues to rise, and it is difficult to find low-price goods on the site. Although the downstream market just needs to enter the market, based on the mentality of preparing goods and replenishing positions at the end of the year, The market may continue to rise. The quotation of the distribution market in East China closely follows the rise of the market. The quotation of domestic goods is about 16200-17000 yuan / ton and that of Shanghai goods is about 16500-17500 yuan / ton.


Future forecast: the short-term TDI market will continue to be strong, with specific attention to market supply and downstream follow-up.

On January 5, the price of diammonium phosphate was stable

Trade name: diammonium phosphate


Latest price: 3600 yuan / ton


Key points of analysis: the price of diammonium phosphate was stable on January 5, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. At present, the price of diammonium raw material sulfur is rising and the cost pressure is great. Most enterprises suspend quotation and mainly issue early orders. The export market slowed down and demand weakened. Today, the mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in China is 3550-3700 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction can be negotiated.


Future forecast: the price of diammonium phosphate will be stable in the short term.

On January 4, the EXW price of domestic potassium chloride increased

Trade name: potassium chloride


Latest price (January 4): 3190.00 yuan / ton


On January 4, the ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride increased by 300 yuan / ton compared with the quotation on December 31. The market price of 60% white potassium in domestic potassium is about 3600-3900 yuan / ton. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 4000-4100 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 3800-3900 yuan / ton. The market of downstream potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate has been consolidated at a high level recently, and the enthusiasm for purchasing next time has been enhanced.


Recently, the price of domestic potassium chloride may rise slightly, and the ex factory price is about 3200 yuan / ton.

In 2021, the domestic bisphenol a experienced ups and downs and reached a new high. What is the future market for bisphenol A?

The domestic bisphenol a market fluctuated in 2021, showing an “m” trend as a whole. According to the monitoring data of business society, the bisphenol a market made rapid progress in the first quarter, from the lowest point of 12725 yuan / ton in the year to the highest point of 29933 yuan / ton in the year (April 16), with the maximum amplitude of 135%, reaching a record high (incomplete statistics are the highest point in 20 years). The downward trend has been obvious since April 16. The market corrected in early June, but there was a lack of real benefits, and the downward trend ended at the end of the second quarter. In the second half of the year, bisphenol A entered another round of high and deep decline. At the beginning, domestic devices were regulated by the “double control” policy, and the energy and chemical sector showed an upward trend. However, with the production of new devices in the fourth quarter and the impact of downstream demand, the market fell down in September. After two consecutive months of subduction and decline, the weakness was adjusted to the end of the year, and the market stalemate was around 16000 yuan / ton, In the last week of December, it rose again to 16750 yuan / ton. Looking at the whole year, 2021 is a very unusual year for bisphenol A products. The annual market has ups and downs, completely separated from the market at the raw material end, and walked out of an independent landscape. On the contrary, the attention of the downstream has increased significantly. Near the end of the year, review the market of the year together.


In the first stage, the “bull market” of bisphenol a market was ignited in the first quarter, with a rapid increase of 135%


Entering 2021, the overall tight spot supply of bisphenol A and the lack of market supply are the main reasons for the “bull market” of bisphenol A. After the sharp rise and fall in 2020, the market supply is extremely tight. At this time, the downstream epoxy resin industry is driven by the impact of wind power subsidies. In the first quarter, the bisphenol a market hit a new high in a decade. According to the monitoring data of business society, on January 1, 2021, the domestic bisphenol a market offer was 13000 yuan / ton, up to 26500 yuan / ton by the end of the quarter, with an increase of 100.4%. As of April 16, the market offer was 29933 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of 135% in the cycle.


Firstly, at the beginning of the year, the operating rate of bisphenol a plant decreased, and there were few and concentrated sources of imported goods during the Spring Festival. After the festival, with the improvement of downstream market procurement, the supply of bisphenol A was tight, and the cargo holders soared sharply, with a daily increase of 1000 yuan.


Chitosan oligosaccharide

Secondly, after the Spring Festival, the extremely cold weather in Europe caused a large area of damage to overseas devices, fueled by the demand of the international market, and the linkage of bulk commodities increased significantly. At this time, the main downstream epoxy resin of bisphenol A was strongly affected by the wind power and electronics industry, and the operating rate of PC end finishing decreased. However, the industrial capacity increased, the demand expectation for bisphenol A increased, and the market offer continued to rise.


Again, the cost side is good support. Affected by the sharp rise of crude oil during the holidays, all products are now making a good start on the first working day after the festival, and the market heat is rising. Especially in the chemical industry circle, the price rise information has opened various screen brushing modes. In the year of the ox, the phenol Market kept reaching new highs. According to the data of the business society, the phenol market increased from 6000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 9000 yuan / ton at the end of the quarter. Another important raw material acetone has experienced a wave of upward movement before the festival. After the festival, the guiding price of Sinopec North China acetone has increased by 1200 yuan / ton, and that of East China plant has increased by 900-1200 yuan / ton, with an implementation rate of 9000-9300 yuan / ton. Raw materials continue to rise, and the cost side supports the continuous rise of bisphenol a market. Although there is a large upward space for dual raw materials, it is still small compared with bisphenol A. bisphenol A showed a unilateral market in the first quarter, with optimistic industry gross profit, which is very bright in the chemical industry.


In the second stage, bisphenol a continued to soar in the second quarter and plunged sharply, cutting the market.


In the second quarter, the quarterly trend continued in mid and early April and continued to rise. As of the 16th, the average market offer was 29933 yuan / ton. The high bisphenol A was difficult for the downstream to digest, the terminal enterprises were difficult to deliver orders and even broke the contract, so they had to stop work and suspend receiving orders. The market plunged after a few days of high stalemate. According to the monitoring data of business society, the market offer was 26833 yuan / ton on April 1, 29933 yuan / ton on April 16, 20300 yuan / ton on June 3, and then rebounded slightly to 22800 yuan / ton. However, the upward positive support was limited, and then fell back. As of June 30, the market offer was 20340 yuan / ton.


First of all, the bulk chemical market was named in the second quarter. The State Council held several meetings to mention the bulk market, which attracted market attention. The chemical industry continued to decline, and bisphenol A was hardly spared. After entering the downward channel, although the offer of the cargo holders continued to decline, the terminal was difficult to improve.


Secondly, after the market fell due to misconduct, the leading enterprise Changchun chemical reduced 5000 yuan / ton per day and implemented 22000 yuan / ton, resulting in an increase in negative factors. The transaction situation is even worse, and the mentality is seriously frustrated, which is difficult to say good. Subject to the sluggish terminal demand market, the bearish mentality of cargo holders is serious, and the terminal’s wait-and-see mood for raw materials increases.


Thirdly, the cost side fell, and after the bulk market was named, the chemical industry showed a downward trend as a whole. There was bad news under the industrial chain, and the market mentality was seriously frustrated. The expected price of bisphenol A in East China market fell to 20000 yuan / ton.


In the third stage, the supply of goods at home and abroad was tight, the shipping schedule was delayed, and under the imbalance of supply and demand, bisphenol a continued to open high, the superimposed Petrochemical auction reached new highs, and the high-level mode was gradually consolidated.


From July to August, the internal and external tension of bisphenol A was highlighted again, the import shipping schedule was delayed, the market spot circulation was tense again, and the expected maintenance plans of domestic enterprises were constantly reported, and some contract quantities were supplied to corresponding customers for a long time, and the spot tension was increasing. On July 1, the market offer was 20500 yuan / ton, and on August 31, the market offer was 28040 yuan / ton. In August, the average price reached the second monthly high in the year! Specifically:


First, the external price is relatively high, the supply of imported resources is small except for the contract, and it is difficult to improve the expected supply in the future. Since April, the import of bisphenol A has remained within 40000 tons for four consecutive months. In July, Mitsui chemical’s 65000 T / a unit was overhauled for one month. In Singapore, it was shut down for 10 days. In late August, South Korea’s Jinhu line 2 began to shut down for maintenance until early September. In September, the periodic inspection of South Asia No. 2 and No. 3 units in Taiwan was carried out until early October. Downstream and importers were worried about follow-up risks and had little interest in negotiation. It is expected that the import in September is still a probability event within 40000 tons. The amount of spot circulation resources of bisphenol A is relatively small. Domestic enterprises mainly supply oriented contracts. Some enterprises are close to overhaul or prepare for subsequent overhaul, and regulate the proportion of export commodities. The internal and external superposition is that bisphenol a spot resources are tight and it is difficult to improve in the future.


Second, the seven rounds of bidding of petrochemical enterprises rose from 20000 yuan / ton to 20950 yuan / ton, which injected a booster into the market, boosted market confidence and greatly improved the industry mentality. At this time, the inventory of downstream resin raw materials is low, and there is a demand for stock replenishment. Although the industry was not in the off-season at that time, the industry’s expectation of raw materials fell and there was basically no inventory of raw materials. Then, Nantong Xingchen and Sanmu, the leading enterprises of the industry, stopped for a short time and prepared goods for driving. Under the original tight supply situation, the market was hard to find a lot of goods, and the negotiation atmosphere increased, which helped push the market upward.


In the fourth stage, the “golden nine and silver ten” suffered a cold winter, stumbled and fell to the end of the year, stuck at 16000 yuan / ton, with a cumulative decline of 43% in four months.


Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

The transfer of high costs was not smooth, and the sharp rise of related products eroded bisphenol A’s decline to spit out the cost space. In September, the industrial chain repeatedly suppressed the market, and the market fell. The market offer was 28040 yuan / ton on September 1 and 16000 yuan / ton as of December 23, a cumulative decline of 43%. In these four months, the decline was obvious in the early stage and the decline rate was fast. In the later stage, bisphenol A was in a continuous stalemate, which was very obvious in the bidding price of petrochemical industry.


Since September, bisphenol A has entered the downward channel, and the related product ECH has soared. With the further rise of ECH, the space of bisphenol A has been squeezed, the bearish atmosphere in the market has increased, and the middlemen actively follow the import and export goods according to the market. Under the guidance of the bidding price of East China Zhejiang Petrochemical every week, the decline has been amplified. At the end of September, some traders have said that they will not offer any more, falling nearly 1000 yuan in one day, Market offer to 22167 yuan / ton. The sharp rise of raw material ECH led to a sharp increase in the cost of epoxy resin. Driven by the cost, epoxy resin had to be overestimated, but bisphenol A had to callback and give up part of the cost space. After the National Day holiday, the demand decline was difficult to change. With the production and output of Tianjin Zhongsha unit, the operating load of downstream PC units decreased. In late October, domestic maintenance units were completed one after another, and the supply was expected to increase. However, it was difficult for the demand side to be stimulated by positive news. The pressure of the owner’s offer fell, the inquiry of the purchasing side was low, and the auction of a petrochemical in East China continued to fall, In the two months at the end of the year, the market continued to be depressed and deadlocked at 16000 yuan / ton. In the last week of the year, bisphenol A rebounded strongly to 16750 yuan / ton again, but there were few transactions on the floor, and we still need to pay attention to the follow-up actual orders.


Frequent price fluctuations, sharp rises and falls have become the main tone of market operation in 2021. As of December 28, 2021, the average price of bisphenol A was 22491.06 yuan / ton, an increase of 10832.56 yuan / ton, or about 93%, compared with the average price of 11658.5 yuan / ton in 2020. The annual lowest price of 12725 yuan / ton appeared on January 4, and the highest price of 29933 yuan / ton appeared on April 16, a record high. In 2021, the maximum fluctuation range of bisphenol a market was 17208 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of 135%. As of December 28, 2021, the mainstream transaction price of bisphenol A in East China was 16000 yuan / ton, an increase of 3375 yuan / ton or 22.1% over the price at the beginning of the year. What about the bisphenol a market in the future?


From the supply side, the output of bisphenol A in China has been increasing in recent years, and bisphenol A will enter a high business cycle in the next five years.


In 2021, the production capacity of bisphenol A in China will be about 1.77 million tons, and the comprehensive operating rate of major bisphenol A units will be 70%, which is at a high level. It is expected that from 2022, with the continuous operation of bisphenol A units under construction, the annual output is expected to gradually increase. In the first five years, China’s import of bisphenol A increased slowly, and the import dependence of bisphenol A was close to 30%. It is expected that in the future, with the significant increase of domestic production capacity, the import dependence of bisphenol A is expected to continue to decline.


From the demand side, the downstream demand is concentrated in PC and epoxy resin, and the downstream production will continue to expand in the future. The downstream demand structure of bisphenol A is concentrated, which is mainly used for PC and epoxy resin, accounting for almost half of each. With the continuous operation of new downstream PC and epoxy resin units, the demand for bisphenol A is expected to increase significantly.


At present, the downstream epoxy resin of bisphenol A has a capacity under construction of 1.54 million tons and PC has a capacity under construction of 1.425 million tons. These capacities will be put into operation in the next 2-3 years, which will strongly stimulate the demand for bisphenol A.


From the perspective of cost, domestic bisphenol A will leave the cost line in 2021, and the gross profit margin will increase significantly.


The comparison between bisphenol A and upstream commodity index in the figure above shows that bisphenol A is completely out of the trend of cost line and high. In 2021, the bisphenol a market soared and plummeted, and the annual average price in 2021 was still 22500 yuan / ton. Calculated according to the theoretical profit of bisphenol A (0.87 * Phenol + 0.27 * acetone + 2300, the price of phenol and acetone here is calculated according to the factory price in East China, and the actual market situation is slightly different), the annual average gross profit of bisphenol A was around 47.5%, which should be the best year since the industrialization of bisphenol A in China in history. In 2021, the downstream demand for bisphenol a further increased, the market supply was tight throughout the year, and the annual average price increased by 93% compared with last year.


To sum up, the future development of bisphenol a market will mainly focus on the production capacity and output increase of bisphenol A enterprises expected to be put into operation, as well as the production capacity increase of downstream PC and epoxy resin enterprises.

Under the influence of supply and demand, the price of maleic anhydride fell after soaring in December

1、 Price trend


Business agency: under the influence of supply and demand, maleic anhydride fell after soaring in December


Chitosan oligosaccharide

According to the data of business society, as of December 31, the average offer price of maleic anhydride was 12166.67 yuan / ton (including tax), a decrease of 3.95% compared with 12666.67 yuan / ton on December 1. The highest price of maleic anhydride this month was 17666.67 yuan / ton and the lowest price was 12166.67 yuan / ton.


On December 31, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 114.61, down 3.14 points from yesterday, down 31.14% from the highest point of 166.43 in the cycle (2021-12-15), and up 123.94% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)


2、 Analysis of influencing factors


In the first ten days of December, affected by the epidemic situation, the shipment of maleic anhydride in Zhejiang was blocked, and the factories in other regions limited the shipment. The supply of goods in the yard was tight, and the price of maleic anhydride rose sharply; In the middle of the year, the tight supply situation in the early stage was alleviated, the maleic anhydride shipment in South China was normal, the new production capacity began to be sold abroad, the domestic maleic anhydride factory shipment was positive, the demand slowed down in the last ten days, the transaction was light, and the maleic anhydride price continued to decline. In November, international crude oil rose sharply and domestic chemical prices rose. The operating rate of the downstream unsaturated resin market has declined, and the purchasing sentiment is general. As of the 31st, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 11000 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 11000 yuan / ton.


Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

In December, the international crude oil price fluctuated sharply, and the Omicron mutant virus spread rapidly, but the symptoms seemed milder than the previous variants; The market hopes that Omicron will weaken its impact on global demand in 2022 and oil prices will be supported. The main reason is that Saudi Arabia believes that oil supply is still very scarce. In addition, although the epidemic trend is still serious, the symptoms of omiron infected people are relatively mild, which brings some optimism to the market. In a report on Monday, JPMorgan said that Omicron would not have any significant impact on the growth prospects. US stocks were boosted and rose, which was also good for oil prices. In addition, a preliminary survey released on Monday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the fifth consecutive week last week, while gasoline inventories are expected to remain generally stable. Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullah Hyan said through the media on the 27th that the parties concerned with the comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear issue began the eighth round of us Iran resumption of performance negotiations in the Austrian capital Vienna on the same day, and will focus on a “new common draft”, which focuses on the “unrestricted” sale of Iranian petroleum oil, and the sale funds will be deposited into Iran’s bank account in foreign currency. However, at present, it is still difficult to promote the negotiations.


In December 2021, the hydrobenzene market fluctuated upward. The ex factory price in North China was 6687.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 6825 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.06%. In December, the hydrobenzene market was mainly volatile, the price fell at the beginning of the month, and entered the upward channel after running smoothly for a period of time. Boosted by the recovery of market prices, the operating rate of hydrobenzene enterprises increased slightly in December. Compared with pure benzene, the start-up and shutdown costs of hydrogenated benzene enterprises are lower, and most manufacturers schedule their production according to their profits.


3、 Future forecast


Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that in December, affected by supply and demand, the price of domestic maleic anhydride market soared and plummeted, the operating rate of downstream resin raw materials fell, the willingness to receive goods downstream was low, the demand slowed down, and the wait-and-see mood was strong; At the end of the month, the maleic anhydride factory shipped actively and the price fell sharply. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may be dominated by weak consolidation in January.