Commodity index: on August 31, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 94.90, down 0.3 points from yesterday, down 12.94% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 12.55% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

According to the monitoring of the business community, from July to August 2021, China’s water treatment manufacturers experienced the biggest twists and turns in recent years. In late July, Gongyi, Henan, the main production area, experienced a severe rainstorm. So far, the rainstorm has raided the local area, the road transportation is blocked, the manufacturers are difficult to find a car to ship, the freight has increased by 50 yuan to hundreds of yuan, and the cost has increased; The rainstorm also led to the flooding of warehouses of some industrial and mining enterprises, the shortage of raw materials for production and the shortage of market supply, resulting in the rise of the price of aquatic products; In addition, the delta virus has led to strict epidemic prevention and control, and the operation of the water treatment industry has been affected to a certain extent, especially in the first half of the month, and it continues to affect in the second half of the month. In the first half of this month, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in China showed an upward trend. The domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride on the 1st was 1687.78 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 15th was 1733.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.7%; In the second half of the month, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in China continued to rise steadily. On the 16th, the domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 1735.56 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, the mainstream price was 1755.56 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.15%. To sum up, the domestic mainstream price of polyacrylamide increased by 4.02% in August.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society, the ex factory price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong rose sharply in August, with a quotation of 226.67 yuan / ton on the 1st and about 293.33 yuan / ton on the 31st, with a monthly increase of 29.41%. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak, while the high market price of downstream ammonium chloride has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. According to the manufacturer’s introduction, in Henan Province, due to strict environmental protection, some hydrochloric acid manufacturers stopped for maintenance. In addition, the previous flood damaged the manufacturer’s warehouse, and the transportation cost increased. The market price of hydrochloric acid increased, the supply of goods was tight, and the price was high, which had a great impact on the price of polyaluminium chloride.

LNG is used in the production process. On August 31, the average price of domestic LNG was 6076.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 930 yuan compared with 5146.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 18.07% in the month and 150.07% compared with the same period last year. The price rise this month is still a commonplace cost rise, the low inventory of liquid plant, the increase of urban fuel replenishment demand and other favorable factors continue to increase, and the price of domestic LNG market continues to rise in the off-season. According to the analysis of the business society, the domestic LNG off-season fluctuated higher in August, and the prices in many places have exceeded the 6000 mark. At present, the favorable factors have not been reduced, and the costs continue to be high. The off-season factors may be difficult to contain the upward trend of liquid prices. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to rise, which is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the future.

Downstream demand: in July and August, the water treatment industry experienced too much. The weather and epidemic disasters affected the production, raw material supply and shipment to a certain extent, Limited Logistics and transportation, and it was difficult to find one vehicle. The price of some raw materials was high due to shutdown and tight supply; In the second half of this month, Gongyi region suffered another rainstorm disaster, and the local response to the rainstorm disaster was strengthened, but some enterprises also had to stop production and business for a few days. It is reported that the demand improved slightly this month, especially under the influence of Rainstorm in the early stage, the influence of Rainstorm in the later stage gradually subsided, the demand became lighter, and the purchase price returned to normal.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, the supply of raw materials has been tight since the rainstorm in Zhengzhou, and the downstream demand has improved to a certain extent, which still plays an obvious role in supporting the price of polyaluminium chloride this month; Epidemic control and rainstorm damage the roads, making it difficult to get a car, rising freight costs and rising delivery costs of manufacturers. In the future, according to the traditional consumption characteristics, the current water treatment industry should usher in the annual peak consumption season, and then superimposed with the influence of supply side and freight factors, the subsequent market of polyaluminium chloride is likely to rise gently.