According to the data monitoring of business society, as of March 10, the average price of domestic butanone market was 8500 yuan / ton, and the average price rose 134 yuan / T, down 1.59% compared with the 9-day (average value of butanone reference 8366 yuan / ton); compared with the price of 1 day (the average value of butanone reference is 8766 yuan / ton), the average price has been decreased by 266 yuan / ton, down 3.04%. Compared with the price of February 18 after the Spring Festival (the average price of butanone reference is 7133 yuan / ton), the average price is up 1367 yuan / T, or 19.16%.

In February, from the end of the Spring Festival to the end of the Spring Festival, the domestic butanone price rose rapidly. In just ten days, butanone market reached a high-end in half a year. The high-end market quotation exceeded 9000 yuan / T, and the 10-day increase reached 18%.

Butanone market continued to decline in March when domestic demand was less than March

In March, under the high price, the wait-and-see mood of the domestic trade market increased, and the downstream recovery was slow. The spot delivery of butanone was generally performed. On March and 4th, the overall price of butanone market declined, and the market price in South China was greatly reduced, and the price fell from 8800-9000 yuan / ton to 8200-8400 yuan / ton, and the market price in East China was also lowered to different degrees, and the price fell from 8650-8850 yuan / ton to 8 250-8450 yuan / ton. In early June, the main factories of Ding mainly received foreign trade orders and processed the pre orders. The inventory pressure of the factory was relatively small, and the spot of butanone market in Shandong Province was tight. However, the sharp decline in the market for several consecutive days brought a heavy drop. The market price of butanone was difficult to support. On August 8, the butanone price fell again, down by 100-200 yuan / T, and the sales price of butanone was 8200-8300 yuan / ton. Then, butanone was sold in advance at 8200-8300 yuan / ton The market of ketone basically remained stable. On September 9, spot traders began to settle prices. It was heard that on September 9, the quotation of individual traders in South China increased slightly, but the market investment atmosphere was general. On October, driven by the upward price of carbon four after the upstream raw material ether, the cost support of butanone was enhanced, and the butanone price rebounded slightly. The ex factory price of butanone in East China was 8400-8500 yuan / ton, up by 100-300 yuan/ About tons. The cost pressure is increasing, downstream factory procurement is depressed, and the market is mainly stable for operation.

According to the business agency, the following is the reference price of butanone in some parts of China in March

Product region: March 1 March August March 10 rise and fall

Butanone: East China: 8650-8850 yuan / T: 8250-8350 yuan / ton: 8400-8500 yuan / t-300

Butanone South China RMB 8800-9000 / T 8200-8400 yuan / T 8400-8600 yuan / T-400

The game of cold supply and demand in downstream is continuously high and weak, and the short-term market is adjusted mainly by narrow amplitude fluctuation

The demand downstream of butanone is cold and the wait-and-see mood is relatively strong. The market supply and demand game is obvious. From the supply and demand side, the driving force of butanone is not enough. Therefore, the analysis of butanone data of business society believes that the domestic butanone market market in the short term is mainly adjusted by narrow range fluctuation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the demand change of downstream raw materials.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business news agency, as of March 9, the average price of domestic Mannheim potassium sulfate 50 particle samples was 2833.33 yuan / ton, up 1.80% from the average price at the beginning of the month, and up 1.74% from the same period of last month.

In early March, the potassium sulfate Market was positive, and the domestic potassium sulfate price was stable after rising. In terms of inventory, it is reported that the potassium sulfate inventory of major ports is stable recently, and the inventory in the market is mostly held by large businesses. The upstream potassium chloride market has a positive trend in the near future, with a certain increase. The cost side support of potassium sulfate was strengthened, driving the spot price up. With the preparation of spring ploughing, the demand for compound fertilizer and potassium fertilizer has increased. From the perspective of on-site trading, at present, there is rigid demand in downstream factories, but the orders are small, and the response to high price supply is general. In terms of supply, the overall domestic reserves are stable, the inventory of terminal sellers is limited, and the big sellers have a certain control over shipment.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency potassium sulfate analysts believe that: at present, potassium sulfate manufacturers offer generally up, recent spot prices generally up 50-100 yuan / ton. Global petrochemical bulk products and direct upstream potassium chloride are generally stronger, which strongly supports the cost of potassium sulfate. Domestic market trading situation is general, inventory and supply situation is stable. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price will be high in the near future.

Today, the price of epoxy resin has been raised in some regions. At present, it is 8400 yuan / ton in East China, 8400 yuan / ton in North China, 8200 yuan / ton in South China, 8600 yuan / ton in Central China and 8400 yuan / ton in Northeast China.

Due to the continuous tight inventory and strong purchase intention of downstream purchasers, the external price of ethylene in Asia rose for six consecutive days, up 14.29% compared with the beginning of the month. After the domestic ethylene price increased by 500 yuan, it has now reached 8800 yuan / ton. Today’s price of Luxi Chemical ethylene is 8200 yuan / ton, and the average price of ethylene is around 8500 yuan. Based on the external price of US $1200, ethylene oxide has lost 67 yuan, while the estimated profit of ethylene glycol is around 185 yuan. Therefore, the manufacturers are more willing to switch to ethylene glycol, and the EO supply side is further tightened. Due to the high price of ethylene and tight supply, the price of epoxy still has room to rise. The downstream polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer was closed in Ling’an, Hubei Province today, while Sanjiang and Shanghai Dongda both rose by 200 yuan. The current market price of monomer is 10600-11100 yuan / ton, and the terminal demand is more resistant to the current monomer price, so there is no market for it. In the later stage, it is still necessary to wait for the terminal demand to further expand.

Affected by raw materials and supply side, it is still bullish.

1、 Nitric acid market price trend chart

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in domestic areas was 2000 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 1983 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 0.83%.

2、 Market analysis

On March 2, Anhui Jinhe quoted 1900 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with last time; Anhui Aodeli quoted 1870 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton compared with last time; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1950 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, 930 yuan / ton of dilute nitric acid, the same as last week; Shaanxi Xinghua Chemical quoted 1900 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, the same as last time Shandong Heli Tainong nitric acid quoted 2100 yuan / ton, which was the same as last time. Local nitric acid supply pressure is obvious, and the market is not smooth.

The upstream liquid ammonia market rebounded after falling in February. According to the monitoring of the business community, the overall decline of liquid ammonia in the whole month was 0.20%, and there was still upward space in March; the domestic market price of downstream aniline rose 2.4% this week. TDI rose 2.67% in East China this week.

3、 Future forecast

Affected by the downstream favorable effect, business analysts expect that the price of nitric acid may rise.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong rose slightly this week. The average price in Shandong was about 3636.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, rose to about 3650.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, and rose slightly by 0.37% within the week.

This week, the overall start-up of dichloromethane market in Shandong Province decreased slightly, and the market supply was still tight. Affected by the low start-up of Luxi Chemical Industry, Jinling, Shandong Province had a plan to reduce the load in March, and Jinmao continued to stop. The overall regional supply was tight, which was good for the price support of dichloromethane. Enterprises had no inventory pressure, and the overall offer was firm. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 3650 yuan / ton.

In the upstream market, affected by the strong trend of crude oil futures, the methanol market quotation in various regions also rose slightly to varying degrees. According to the monitoring of the business community, the methanol price was 2295 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2335 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 1.71% in the whole week.

Affected by the high cost, the price of the refrigerant market rose, and the traders returned to the market one after another after the festival and gradually stocked up. The refrigerant shipment increased slightly compared with the previous period, but the overall situation was still flat, and the support for dichloromethane was not strong.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that, at present, the supply of dichloromethane in Shandong is tight, there is no pressure on enterprise inventory, and the downstream market starts to recover slowly. It is expected that dichloromethane will continue to rise steadily in the later period.

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of silver in the morning market on March 5 was 5134.33 yuan / kg, a decrease of 6.31% compared with the average price of 5480.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1), and a decrease of 7.49% compared with 5550 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (01.01).

On March 5, the spot price of gold was 370.80 yuan / g, a decrease of 3.12% compared with the average price of 365.60 yuan / g in the early morning of the month (3.1), and a decrease of 9.80% compared with the spot price of 392.70 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01).

At present, silver has fallen to the low range in early January, and the price of gold has been falling all the way to a new low in October.

 
Silver fell to its low in early January

Similar to Gamestop, the news of short selling of silver helped silver prices to rise sharply in the middle and late January. However, based on the silver market size reaching about US $200 billion and the regulatory policy of stock exchange’s position limit, the short selling of silver did not end quickly.

Gold hit a new low in October

Different from the trend of bulk metal commodities, gold has been falling continuously since its peak in August 2020. At present, the price of gold has been at a low level for nearly 10 months, close to the price level at the end of March 2020.

Main reasons for the decline of precious metals in March

1. Soaring bond yields

Powell’s comments on Thursday sent the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds back to more than 1.5%. The rise in US Treasury yields increases the opportunity cost of holding unproductive gold and weakens the attractiveness of gold as an inflation hedging tool.

2. Lack of investment demand

After the investment peak in 2020, the price of precious metals will gradually weaken. With the continuous introduction of vaccines into the market, the expectation of economic recovery from the epidemic is strengthened, and the possibility of real interest rate rising is increasing.

The expected outflow of investment funds from gold ETF increased, and domestic gold ETF positions fell due to factors such as stronger exchange rate.

3. Closure of alternative assets

Other alternative assets, including the recently soaring commodity market and the so-called competitive bitcoin, have dispersed investors’ demand for gold.

Is the turning point coming

Basically, the demand for solar panels is increasing in the automotive industry and other industrial applications, In the long run, the real interest rate will remain low, the Central Bank of developed economies will continue to buy government debt, the industrial demand will increase, the demand for jewelry and silverware will also increase, the silver demand for disinfection and medical industry and the supply of silver ore will decrease, and other factors will have strong support for silver.

It is expected that the downward space of precious metals will narrow, and the later period will mainly focus on today’s non-agricultural report data.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong rose slightly this week. The average price in Shandong was about 3636.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, rose to about 3650.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, and rose slightly by 0.37% within the week.

This week, the overall start-up of dichloromethane market in Shandong Province decreased slightly, and the market supply was still tight. Affected by the low start-up of Luxi Chemical Industry, Jinling, Shandong Province had a plan to reduce the load in March, and Jinmao continued to stop. The overall regional supply was tight, which was good for the price support of dichloromethane. Enterprises had no inventory pressure, and the overall offer was firm. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 3650 yuan / ton.

In the upstream market, affected by the strong trend of crude oil futures, the methanol market quotation in various regions also rose slightly to varying degrees. According to the monitoring of the business community, the methanol price was 2295 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2335 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 1.71% in the whole week.

Affected by the high cost, the price of the refrigerant market rose, and the traders returned to the market one after another after the festival and gradually stocked up. The refrigerant shipment increased slightly compared with the previous period, but the overall situation was still flat, and the support for dichloromethane was not strong.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that, at present, the supply of dichloromethane in Shandong is tight, there is no pressure on enterprise inventory, and the downstream market starts to recover slowly. It is expected that dichloromethane will continue to rise steadily in the later period.

After the Spring Festival, polysilicon market continued to rise, continuing the trend before the festival, and the price rose significantly this week. According to the monitoring of business news agency, polysilicon rose by 9.73% from early February to March 4. The prices of domestic and imported materials have rebounded to varying degrees, mainly due to the increasingly tight supply under the premise of increasing demand. In fact, since February, polysilicon manufacturers have maintained a high operating rate. Only one of the 11 main silicon material manufacturers has been overhauled, and the production capacity has basically reached the limit. However, the downstream silicon material manufacturers purchase significantly in large quantities, which coincides with the rising price of silicon wafer in the downstream. The continuous price increase also provides a prerequisite for the opening of silicon material price rising space. As of March 4, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the current domestic mainstream transaction price of polysilicon with grade I solar material is 64000-68000 yuan / ton, and the tax inclusive price of polysilicon in non China region is 78000-81000 yuan / ton.

Since mid December 2020, the bottom of polycrystalline silicon has begun to rise. On the one hand, the recent production of polycrystalline silicon has not been expanded, and the rated output is about 35000 tons per month. Since the second half of last year, the new production capacity of silicon wafers in the downstream of silicon materials has been put into production one after another, and the centralized large-scale production at the purchasing end has resulted in the tight supply of polycrystalline silicon. In 2021, the market atmosphere is more positive. Both the transaction price of domestic manufacturers and the price of imported goods have a considerable upward range, especially the growth of monocrystalline silicon is more obvious, and the pattern of prosperous supply and marketing has continued to the present.

At present, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers has been normalized, with 100 of them started operation. In March, about 11 domestic polysilicon manufacturers are in normal operation, especially in Sichuan, Ordos, Inner Mongolia and other regions where the plants contribute about 80% of the output. However, the current high operating rate has not led to stock accumulation. Large enterprises are in good condition to sign orders, and some large factories have signed orders in March, Some of them start to sign new orders for next month.

The rise in the price of downstream silicon wafers is the main driving force for the rise of polysilicon. As the leading silicon wafers Longji and Zhonghuan announced new brand prices one after another, the transaction price of single crystal silicon wafers rose in an all-round way. The rise in the price of silicon wafers covered the rise of silicon materials, which did not affect the shipment speed of silicon materials. At the same time, in the face of sharp increase in costs, terminal battery manufacturers are gradually planning to raise their prices. However, in the later stage, the operating rate of battery chips may be restricted by the cost, which will affect some parts of the market, which will also force the cost side to gradually recover its rationality.

The Business Association believes that in the near future, there is still room for polysilicon to go up. On the one hand, the price of silicon wafers is firm and the demand is stable; on the other hand, the inventory pressure of silicon material manufacturers is not big, and the price can still maintain high in the short term. However, on the other hand, due to the impact of power rationing in some areas a year ago, the decline of silicon output caused a shortage of supply. However, since March, with the increase of operation rate of manufacturers, silicon output will also increase, and the tight supply will become too loose. In addition, the terminal may be more and more negative to the surge of cost, so the possibility of reducing the operation rate cannot be ruled out. Therefore, it is difficult for the medium and long-term polysilicon to continue to rise sharply I think it’s succeeding.

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market rose by 13.39% in February.

On March 3, 2021, the average price of domestic spot aluminum ingot Market was 17436.67 yuan / ton, with a one-day increase of 2.23%; after the high callback on March 26, it went up again.

Capital driven market is obvious

On the 3rd, the main contract of aluminum futures rose by more than 4%, with obvious convergence of futures and futures rising even more. After the festival, this wave of capital driven market is obvious, and the trend of precipitation capital and non-ferrous index is the same.

The news of the US $1.9 trillion epidemic relief plan combined with the effective promotion and use of vaccines, the strengthening of the expectation of economic recovery for the better of the epidemic situation, and the expectation of infrastructure stimulus policy, helped the outbreak of the metal market.

The spot aluminum ingot price is at a historical high in recent nine years. After the festival, this wave of rapid rising market is too fast and fierce. The downstream and terminal are under great pressure. Traders wait and see more, the pressure of short-term correction increases, and the aluminum price has experienced a slight correction.

Good fundamentals expected to boost aluminum ingot price

Although the social inventory of aluminum ingots has entered the accumulation cycle, the accumulation in the Spring Festival is not much, which is lower than that in the same period of last year. In addition, the terminal demand is expected to be better, and the investment data of power grid is relatively stable. In addition, the data of real estate, household appliances and automobiles are better, and the support of aluminum consumer side is strong. After the Lantern Festival, with the rising operating rate of aluminum downstream enterprises, the consumption demand for aluminum ingots gradually recovered, and the just needed procurement began to enter the market.

Pay attention to the change of investment logic in the later stage

At present, the profit level of aluminum ingot manufacturers has increased significantly, and the profit per ton of manufacturers with better energy efficiency ratio is close to 4000 yuan. The market quotation is mainly based on macro sentiment guidance, sustainability depends on the capacity of intervention funds, and whether the investment sentiment will return to the fundamentals is the main consideration in the future. In the short term, the spot aluminum ingot price maintains the strong movement primarily.

1、 Trend analysis

After the Spring Festival, copper prices soared, once rising by more than 70000, or more than 11%. After the sharp rise, the copper price recovered nearly half of the increase. The spot copper price was 66676.67 yuan / ton, down 1.35% compared with the previous trading day, up 15.05% compared with the beginning of the year, and up 49% compared with the same period last year. LME3 copper closed at US $9025.5, up 0.05%, after a correction. Shanghai copper rebounded and narrowed its decline to close at 66780 yuan, down 0.99%, after the main callback of 65730 yuan. The main international copper contract closed at 59530 yuan, down 1.01%.

U.S. debt and U.S. dollar strengthened, market atmosphere was short, and metal prices were under pressure. According to the news, more copper concentrates are expected to flow in, and a large number of copper concentrates from Chile and Peru will be transported to Chinese ports. The number of copper concentrates is expected to increase by more than 60% month on month in March. The shortage of raw material supply for smelters may be eased, and the copper price will drop slightly. In the spot market, some traders wait and see, and the lower reaches buy at a moderate price, so the transaction is general. However, with the global economic recovery and the advent of the traditional peak season, the copper price in the future is still bullish, and it is expected to maintain a high volatility trend in the short term.