At present, the ex factory price of ethylene oxide in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 7500 yuan / ton, and that in Central China is 7700 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of the previous trading day.

In terms of upstream ethylene, the external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is US $1130 / T, that in Southeast Asia is US $1045 / T, and the quotation of Jinshan Lianmao ethylene today is 7800 yuan / T, which is the same as that of the previous trading day. Ethylene prices slowly declined. According to the latest external price, the loss of ethylene oxide was about 500 yuan / ton. The manufacturer limited production and reduced the burden to reduce the loss.

Downstream, the current valuation of ethylene glycol is at a low level. Although the polyester demand has improved, it fluctuates at a low level due to the expectation of long-term new production capacity and bad crude oil. There are still worries in the monomer downstream market, mainly on the sidelines, with limited demand improvement.

The market is temporarily stable

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on November 23 was 5250 yuan / ton.

On November 22, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China market was 5170 yuan / ton, up 120 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day and 10.5 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Due to the increasing rumors that the United States, Japan and India will release crude oil reserves to stabilize oil prices, demand is expected to weaken, oil prices fall and coal stabilizes. The actual purchase of ethylene glycol was general. In the afternoon, the focus of Meg’s external market continued to strengthen. In December, the transaction of cargo was above 690 US dollars / ton.

Forecast: low shock.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (November 22): 14450.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic TDI market is waiting to be sorted out. In terms of supply, the factory devices operate normally, the factory has no inventory pressure for the time being, the downstream demand continues to be weak, the goods holder mainly talks about shipping, the demand for terminal products weakens, the transaction of new orders in the field is not smooth, the export orders are reduced, the support for TDI is insufficient, and the TDI market operates weakly under the supply-demand game. At present, the quotation of TDI domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is about 13800-14200 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods is about 14300-14500 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation.

Future forecast: wait and see the short-term TDI market, pay attention to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid decreased slightly this week, and the quotation decreased from 318.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 292.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 8.18%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.26% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the domestic hydrochloric acid market fell slightly this week. On November 20, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 76.84, the same as yesterday, down 44.27% from the highest point of 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 327.36% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012.

The upstream support is weakened and the downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week. Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid quoted 300 yuan / ton this weekend, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The price of synthetic hydrochloric acid from Wen Shui is 230 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid quoted 130 yuan / ton this weekend, down 30 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Liaocheng Huatong hydrochloric acid is quoted at 200 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Xiangcheng Sanan hydrochloric acid is quoted at 600 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market fell slightly, weakening the support for hydrochloric acid. The price of downstream white carbon black is adjusted at a high level, and the quotation is 6875.00 yuan / ton; The market price of ammonium chloride decreased slightly, and the quotation was 1177.50 yuan / ton. On the whole, upstream and downstream products have a negative impact on the price of hydrochloric acid.

Future forecast

The upstream liquid chlorine market has fallen recently, the cost support is general, the downstream white carbon black and ammonium chloride market have fallen slightly, and the downstream purchase intention has weakened. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly suffered a slight shock and decline recently.

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on November 18 was 5250 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of November 18, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 545000 tons, a decrease of 58200 tons, a decrease of 9.65%, and 44300 tons, a decrease of 7.52%, compared with last Thursday.

On Thursday, the oil price fell to the low point of nearly six weeks, ethylene glycol went to the warehouse sharply, the polyester operating rate increased slightly, the demand side increased slowly, the supply increment was not large-scale, and the fundamentals were stable.

Forecast: wide range shock.

At present, the ex factory price of ethylene oxide in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 8000 yuan / ton, and that in Central China is 8200 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of the previous trading day.

In terms of upstream ethylene, the external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was US $1150 / T, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. The ex factory quotation of Jinshan Lianmao ethylene was 8000 yuan / T today. The external price of ethylene was significantly higher than that in China, and the arbitrage window was closed. According to the latest external price, ethylene oxide has been produced at a discount.

In terms of downstream polycarboxylic acid superplasticizer monomer, weak terminal demand is a common topic. At present, the market price has fallen to around 8700 yuan, which is affected by weak demand. Some monomer manufacturers reduce the load for production.

On the EO trend, the two views of the market are intertwined, either down or flat. On the whole, most people hold a hollow state.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average early trading price of silver market on November 16 was 5115 yuan / kg, which was 0.28% higher than the average early trading price of spot market on the previous working day (November 15); Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 7.84%.

On November 16, the spot market price of gold was 382.73 yuan / g, a decrease of 0.37% compared with the spot market price of 381.31 yuan / G on the previous working day (November 15), and an increase of 3.55% compared with the early average price of 369.60 yuan / g in the spot market price at the beginning of November (November 1); Compared with the spot price of gold at the beginning of the year (01.01), it was 392.70 yuan / g, down 2.54%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

The convergence of precious metal gold and silver is relatively good, the price amplitude of silver is large, and the direction is basically the same. Recently, at the end of September, the price of silver fell rapidly, and the rise and fall of precious metal prices converged. After the return of the national day, the price of silver hit the bottom and rebounded. The fluctuation amplitude of silver price is large, the price trend of gold and silver tends to narrow, and the recent price fluctuation of silver is relatively stable.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Future forecast

It is expected that the price of precious metals will stabilize in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, on the 15th, the spot nickel price fell slightly, with a quotation of 147250 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.6% compared with the previous trading day, an increase of 14.92% compared with the beginning of the year and a year-on-year increase of 22.15%. Shanghai nickel opened at 146080 yuan. After opening, Shanghai nickel opened higher and went lower, showing a weak performance, closing at 144800 yuan at the lowest and 145000 yuan at the end, down 0.92%. Today, the nickel trend of LME3 fell back from its high in January, closing at US $19705 at the deadline, down 1.15%.

At present, the situation of power and production restriction in China still exists, but most areas have eased, and the output of stainless steel plants has gradually increased. In the downstream, at present, it has entered the traditional off-season, the demand is relatively weak, and most of them are mainly purchased on demand. Sea freight dropped sharply, and the price of nickel ore was under pressure. Nickel is expected to remain weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline stabilized after a wide decline this week. On November 5, the price in Shandong was 14000-14260 yuan / ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing was 14500 yuan / ton; On November 12, the price of aniline in Shandong was 13500-13780 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 14000-14500 yuan / ton. The price decreased by 3.53% compared with last week, increased by 73% at the beginning of the year, and increased by 106.03% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

In terms of cost, pure benzene fell this week due to the weakening of crude oil and styrene. Planned overhaul of Fujian United Petrochemical Unit within the week, and expected reduction of pure benzene supply; New production capacity is planned to be put into operation in the downstream, with good support from the supply and demand side and small decline in the week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene remained stable at 8300-8400 yuan / ton. On Friday (November 12), the price of pure benzene was 7450-7650 yuan / ton (the average price was 7570 yuan / ton), and the average price decreased by 30 yuan / ton or 0.39% compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 91.16%.

Nitric acid fell continuously and broadly this week. On Friday (November 12), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 3000 yuan / ton, down 8.72% from last week and up 85.57% from the same period last year.

Both raw materials fell, and the cost support of aniline weakened; Downstream resistance to high priced aniline increased, follow-up weakened, and the high price of aniline corrected. During the week, the market cautiously watched the downstream pick-up sentiment and stabilized after falling.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, crude oil is expected to fluctuate on the cost side, and the guidance for pure benzene is weak; The trend of downstream styrene is weak, but there are plans to put new production capacity into operation, and the demand for pure benzene is expected to increase in the later stage. The supply and demand side pays attention to the dynamics of large units in East China and the dynamics of new units in the downstream. Overall, it is expected that pure benzene will continue to fluctuate weakly next week.

At present, the market is cautiously watching the downstream purchasing sentiment. Dongying Huatai and Shandong Jinmao aniline plants are restarted, and Jinling plant is planned to be overhauled, which may affect the trend of aniline. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and the dynamics of aniline plant.

Trade name: natural rubber (standard I)

Latest price: 13220 yuan / ton on November 11

Market analysis: according to the data monitoring of business agency (100ppi. Com), Shanghai glue continued to fluctuate slightly on November 11, with an increase of about 50-100 yuan / ton, and the spot glue basically adjusted with the market. In the current winter, the weather conditions affect the rubber production, especially the domestic rubber, which is about to stop cutting one after another; The arrival volume of China’s imported rubber has not increased significantly this month; The production and sales of automobile enterprises have improved to a certain extent, and the shortage of chips cannot be completely solved for the time being; Raw material prices are at a high level. Environmental protection, power and production restriction have a significant impact on tire enterprises. Ningxia Shenzhou tire and other enterprises continue to raise tire ex factory prices this month.

Industry data: according to the Malaysian Bureau of statistics on November 11, the export volume of natural rubber in September 2021 increased by 27.9% year-on-year to 62332 tons, with a month on month increase of 5.3%; In September, the import volume was 81190 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.1% and a month on month increase of 1.9%; In September, the total output of natural rubber that can be monitored was 41180 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8% and a month on month decrease of 4.1%; In September, the natural rubber inventory was 292271 tons, with a month on month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 14.6%; In September, the total domestic consumption of natural rubber decreased by 9.1% year-on-year to 41469 tons, an increase of 6.2% month on month.

Future forecast: it is expected that natural rubber will mainly fluctuate before cutting in domestic production areas.