According to the data of the business community, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of December 18 was 6086.00 yuan/ton (tax included), 1.93% lower than the price of 6206.00 yuan/ton on December 12.

On December 18, the fuel oil commodity index was 123.26, unchanged from yesterday, 9.97% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 136.91 (2022-11-17), and 167.49% higher than the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

International crude oil prices rose, supported by the cost of ship fuel market. According to the business community, as of December 18, the 180cst self raised low sulfur quotation of fuel oil in the Zhoushan area of CNGC was 6000 yuan/ton, and the 120cst self raised low sulfur quotation of fuel oil was 6100 yuan/ton; The price of 180cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNGC Shanghai is 6180 yuan/ton, and the price of 120cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6230 yuan/ton.

International crude oil prices rose. The US ISM non manufacturing index unexpectedly increased in November, reflecting that the domestic economy is still resilient. The continued economic boom has triggered market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s transition from “dove” to “eagle”, which may disappoint the Federal Reserve’s previous desire to slow interest rate increases. The market provides the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the monetary tightening path. The activity of American oil and gas drilling platforms has decreased, OPEC+has maintained its production reduction measures, and the recent international crude oil market has experienced a “six consecutive declines” or a technical rebound that temporarily supported oil prices. However, because the inflation index is still higher than expected, the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates by 50 basis points is still high. In addition, in the context of the increased risk of global economic recession, the slowing down of demand growth in the future is a certainty. The overall economy is weak, and the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic. The economic weakness has depressed oil prices.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, supporting fuel oil prices. It is reported that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): As of the week of December 14, Singapore’s fuel inventory had decreased by 217,000 barrels, falling to a two-week low of 20,089,000 barrels. Singapore’s middle distillate oil inventory fell 113000 barrels to 6.953 million barrels, a four week low. Singapore’s light distillate stocks rose 303000 barrels to a two-week high of 13.691 million barrels.

Future forecast: the international crude oil price trend is unstable, the domestic ship fuel market has a strong wait-and-see mood, the terminal replenishment capacity is limited, and the purchase is mainly based on demand, and the transaction is average. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6000-6300 yuan/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6100-6350 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil in the near future will be dominated by the weak.

The butadiene rubber market rose slightly this week (12.9-12.16). According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China was 10,610 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from 10,530 yuan/ton last Friday. At the beginning of this month, after the factory price of cis polybutadiene rubber dropped significantly, it has remained stable in the near future. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the ex factory price of butadiene rubber of Sinopec North China Sales Company had reported 10,100 yuan/ton, and the offer of merchants had rebounded slightly after a sharp fall. As of December 16, the mainstream market of butadiene rubber in Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi, Sichuan and other regions had reported 10,400~11,100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market of private butadiene rubber had reported 10,100~10,300 yuan/ton.

Daqing, Sichuan, Maoming, Qixiang and other Shunting Butadiene plants have high load or full load production, and Haopu and other early maintenance devices have been restarted. In general, the pressure on the supply side of Shunting Butadiene Rubber is still there.

The price of raw butadiene rose this week (12.9-12.16), while the cost of cis polybutadiene rubber rose slightly. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the price of butadiene was 6755 yuan/ton, up 2.87% from 6566 yuan/ton last Friday.

The natural rubber market rose slightly this week (12.9-12.16), supporting cis polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the price of natural rubber was 12470 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from 12420 yuan/ton last Friday.

The demand side increased slightly, and the downstream tire enterprises continued to increase this week. According to the business agency, the construction of semi steel tires in Shandong is around 6.60%, and that of full steel tires is around 0.60%.

Future market forecast: according to the analysts of the business association, the supply pressure of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is still present, the demand has improved, and the cost has risen slightly. It is expected that the market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will rise slightly in the short term.

On December 15, the mainstream quotation range of 1 # tin ingot in East China spot market was 191500-193500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 192500 yuan/ton, 2500 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day. The average price in the domestic market was 192520 yuan/ton, down 1.43% and 34.35% year on year compared with the previous trading day.

On the night of the 14th, the metal market fell more or less. Shanghai Tin fell about 1.4%, while London Tin fell 1.04%. In the morning trading, Shanghai Tin continued its decline. As of the closing of the Shanghai Tin 2301 contract on the 15th, the closing settlement price was 19350 yuan/ton, down 1.22%.

The overall trading in the spot market is slightly weak, with limited turnover. Downstream purchasing remains in demand. Fundamentals have not changed much in the near future as a whole, showing no loose supply and weak demand. Recently, the output of the refinery has increased slightly, and the supply is loose. At present, the downstream procurement intention is still on demand, and the actual market demand has little change. The business agency expects that the tin price in the future will be mainly weak in the long run, but will still be affected by the macro in the short run, maintaining a wide range of shocks.

Trend Chart of Average Acetone Price in National Mainstream Market

Today, the port supply of goods increased, and the shipping intention of the cargo holders increased. However, the terminal factory bid was low, and the market mentality was poor, leading to the market continued to decline.

The offer of acetone in major mainstream markets in China is as follows:

Region./Quotation./Rise/Fall

East China./5800./- 80

Shandong region./6100./- 50

Yanshan District./6120./- 50

South China/5800./- 80

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average market price of the manufacturers of petroleum asphalt in Shandong on December 13 was 3421 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the previous trading day and up 11.03% year on year. On December 13, the main asphalt contract 2302 closed at 3474 yuan/ton, up 101 or 2.99% from the previous trading day.

The international crude oil price rebounded sharply, and the cost side drove the asphalt futures up. In terms of spot goods, affected by the weather, market demand is gradually weakening, and most refineries are selling at reduced prices. At present, the market is gradually entering the stage of winter storage, and the downstream delivery is relatively flat.

The short-term spot asphalt market is mainly on the sidelines.

Zinc price rises in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the zinc price was 25214 yuan/ton as of December 12, up 0.89% from 24992 yuan/ton on December 1. This week, the low inventory demand in the zinc market recovered, and the zinc price rose in shock.

Low level of zinc ingot inventory

It can be seen from the trend chart of zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market that the low level of zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market is temporarily stable in the near future, the supply of zinc ingot is tight, and the upward momentum of zinc ingot is great.

Supply and demand factors

In terms of supply, the cold wave is coming, domestic electricity is occupying industrial electricity, European zinc smelting may be affected by production reduction, and zinc supply is expected to shrink.

In terms of demand, stock up or start in advance during the Spring Festival, increasing short-term demand.

Future market forecast

According to the data analysts of the business community; The Federal Reserve has slowed down the pace of interest rate increase, easing the concern about the economic recession in the international market. The prevention and control measures have been greatly optimized in China. The expectation of macroeconomic recovery has been strengthened. The Spring Festival stock may come ahead of time, and demand has warmed up. To sum up, the supply of zinc is insufficient and the demand is rebounding, and the zinc price is expected to rise in shock.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business associations, the vitamin market as a whole remained weak this week, the downstream demand was weak, and the focus of vitamin A negotiations was further lowered.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of vitamin C was stable this week, and the average price of food grade vitamin C was stable at 27.33 yuan/kg, with no increase or decrease, down 42.67% year on year. The factory continues to stop reporting, the traders’ prices follow the market, and the downstream demand is the main demand. The factory gives up profits and takes the goods away.

The price of raw corn has weakened. It is expected that in the second half of the month, with the increase of demand for stocking and warehouse building before the Spring Festival at the demand terminal, the price will have another opportunity to rise.

The price of vitamin A decreased slightly this week. The average price of feed grade vitamin A at the beginning of the week was 106 yuan/kg, and the average price at the weekend was 104 yuan/kg, with a weekly drop of 1.88% and a year-on-year drop of 64.27%. The current mainstream market quotation is 95-102 yuan/kg, while the European market quotation drops to 26-30 euros/kg. Foreign enterprises have plans to stop production, and the domestic market is still in a situation of oversupply. It is difficult to improve the short-term market.

The price of vitamin E is stable this week. The current VE market price is 82-84 yuan/kg, and the European market price is 8.8-9.2 euros/kg. The demand remains weak, supported by the export market, and the price of vitamins is relatively strong.

Future market forecast

According to the vitamin analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Community, the market demand is relatively weak in the near future, and the end customers are basically purchasing a small amount as needed. There is no good news guidance for the time being. It is expected that the vitamin market will remain weak next week, and pay close attention to the factory production downtime and delivery.

In 2022, the domestic butadiene market will generally rise first and then fall. In the first half of the year, it will mainly rise unilaterally, while in the second half of the year, it will fluctuate and decline. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic butadiene producers will be 4451 yuan/ton on January 1, 2022, and 6366 yuan/ton as of December 7, with an overall increase of 43.03%. The lowest price appeared at 4180 yuan/ton on January 5 of the year beginning, and the highest price appeared at 12096 yuan/ton on June 9 of the year, with the maximum amplitude of 171.75%. The highest price in the year was almost the same as that in 2021.

In the first half of 2022, the domestic butadiene market has risen unilaterally, from 4451 yuan/ton on January 1 to 12096 yuan/ton on June 9, with an overall increase of 171.75%. The main factors influencing the sharp rise of butadiene market in the first half of the year are as follows: first, the international crude oil price fluctuated at a high level, the overall environment developed well, the petrochemical industry chain rose actively, and butadiene cost was supported; Secondly, the high price of the external market drives the domestic market. The external price of Europe and Southeast Asia has risen significantly several times, and traders have followed suit; Third, the manufacturers kept raising the ex factory quotation to give confidence support to the market. Some manufacturers did not maintain their equipment or supply goods for export temporarily. The supply side also formed a strong positive effect on the market. The butadiene market performance in the first half of the year was “eye-catching”.

In the second half of the year, the domestic butadiene market was “flying downward”, and the price trend declined slowly. The price fell from 12096 yuan/ton on June 10 to 6636 yuan/ton on December 7, a decline of 47.37%. The main factors affecting the price market in the second half of the year are supply and demand. On the one hand, the main manufacturers in the Northeast, which had stopped work and were not for export temporarily, started bidding sales in the second half of the year. Although the total amount is small, it has added a little burden to the tight supply level; On the other hand, the demand is insufficient, the main downstream rubber industry is in recession, the unit operation rate is low, and the price is also low. The contradiction between supply and demand is becoming increasingly prominent, the international crude oil price is weak and volatile, the effect of the external market is not strong, and the butadiene market is difficult to turn around.

It can be seen from the price rise and fall chart of the butadiene industry chain of the business community that the products in the butadiene industry chain with prices falling all year round include styrene butadiene rubber (-11.31%), ABS (-20.54%), nitrile butadiene rubber (-37.14%) and cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber (-26.31%). The products with rising prices include butadiene (43.03%) and naphtha (1.11%).

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market will fluctuate and decline in 2022. The price at the beginning of the year is 14290 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the year (as of December 7) is 10619 yuan/ton, a decline of 25.69%.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber market will fluctuate and decline in 2022. The price at the beginning of the year is 12233 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the year (as of December 7) is 10689 yuan/ton, a decline of 12.62%.

In 2022, the price center of butadiene market will recover from last year. The annual market price change is mainly caused by the combination of supply and demand fundamentals and other factors, among which the supply and demand fundamentals are the main driving factor affecting the annual price change. During the year, the price of the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose, which led to a sharp rise in the price of the external market, making the domestic butadiene market price rise significantly. After the price rose to a high point, with the pressure on downstream costs, it was difficult to keep up with the high price of butadiene, and some downstream manufacturers reduced production, which weakened the demand side’s support for price; At the same time, in the second half of the year, some new butadiene production capacity continued to release, the market supply was abundant, the supply side was also difficult to support the price, and the price continued to decline.

According to incomplete statistics, the annual new capacity of butadiene in China will be relatively small in 2023. At the same time, it is expected that there will be new units in the downstream or continue to be put into production, and the demand increment will be greater than the supply end increment. Butadiene analysts from the business community predict that the butadiene market price may recover in the beginning of 2023.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic methanol port in East China was 2671 yuan/ton on December 6, up 0.06% from the previous working day and 0.36% year on year. On December 6, the methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was slightly volatile, and the main contract MA2301 closed at 2502 yuan/ton in late trading, down 2.68%.

Crude oil fluctuated widely, and methanol futures were weak. In terms of spot goods, the production enterprises started the construction of the devices basically stably. In order to actively arrange the inventory, the quotation of the production enterprises was reduced by about 50-100 yuan/ton. The traders and downstream customers were in a general mood of receiving goods, and most of them purchased on demand.

The domestic methanol market may be weak in the short term.

On December 5, the mainstream quotation range of 1 # tin ingot in East China spot market was 193000-196000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 194500 yuan/ton, up 8000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price in the domestic market was 194610 yuan/ton, 4.23% higher than the previous trading day, and 34.2% lower than the same period last year.

The US dollar fell for three consecutive working days overnight, boosting the metal market mentality. Today, metals rose in the morning, and Shanghai Tin rose by more than 4%, driving the spot market to rise significantly by 8000-9000 yuan/ton. As of the end of the 5th day, the settlement price of the main contract of Shanghai Tin 2301 was 190360 yuan/ton, up 3.94%.

Macroscopically, the domestic policy optimization in recent two days has boosted the market mentality. Last weekend, the US dollar fell continuously and the metal market generally rose. Fundamentals have not changed much in recent years, which still shows loose supply and weak demand. Although the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to improve in the near future, the market mentality is slightly boosted. However, the downstream procurement intention is still on demand, and the actual demand has not changed much. The business agency expects that the tin price in the future will be mainly weak in the long run, but will still be affected by the macro in the short run, maintaining a wide range of shocks.