According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, since February, the demand of terminal paper printing and other industries has recovered, and the market of hydrogen peroxide has risen. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 750 yuan/ton. On February 14, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 766 yuan/ton, up 2.22%.

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

 

Since February, the manufacturers of terminal paper printing and other industries have resumed work, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide has increased. In addition, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers still shut down for maintenance, and the market supply is tight. The hydrogen peroxide market was supported by a lot of profits. The mainstream quotation in Shandong was 670 yuan/ton, and the price rose by 40 yuan/ton.

 

According to the hydrogen peroxide analyst of the Business Agency, the positive factors have been realized in succession, and the hydrogen peroxide market in the future will gradually fall.

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The market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber weakened slightly this week (2.6-2.13). According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of February 13, the domestic price of cis-1,40 yuan/ton was down 1.03% from 11660 yuan/ton on Monday. The raw material butadiene price is high and firm, and the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber supplier will basically stabilize the factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in the week. Buying sentiment weakened after the market price rose, and the offer of merchants fell slightly. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of February 13, the ex-factory price of butadiene rubber of Sinopec North China Sales Company was reported at 11400 yuan/ton. As of the 13th, the mainstream market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi and Sichuan reported 11450-11750 yuan/ton, while the mainstream market of private cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber reported 11200-11300 yuan/ton.

Chitosan oligosaccharide

 

The price of raw material butadiene rose slightly this week (2.6-2.13), and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber continued to be supported. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of butadiene was 9518 yuan/ton as of February 13, up 0.91% from 9432 yuan/ton on February 6.

 

The natural rubber market fell slightly this week (2.6-2.13), which was negative for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of natural rubber was 11980 yuan/ton as of February 13, down 1.02% from 12104 yuan/ton last Monday.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

After the Lantern Festival, the construction of downstream tire enterprises increased significantly. Because the tire factory had sufficient stock before the festival, the purchase of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is still small, and the negotiation of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is mainly small.

 

Aftermarket forecast: analysts from the Business Agency believe that the price of natural rubber will fall in the short term, and the impact on polybutadiene rubber will be short; The supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is stable, and the inventory of downstream raw materials is gradually consumed. The demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will increase in the later stage. It is expected that the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will rise again in the later stage.

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The aluminum price fluctuated widely

 

Chitosan oligosaccharide

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on February 10, 2023 was 18583.33 yuan/ton, down 2.09% from the aluminum price of 18980 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (February 1). After the aluminum price recovered in January, it was basically in a long and short position in February, with a wide range of sideways shocks.

 

In the long term, the current price has retreated significantly, with an increase of 6.49% compared with the average market price of aluminum ingot of 17450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the recent recovery (July 14, 2022). The recent high price of aluminum appeared on December 5, and the average market price of aluminum ingots was 19536.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.88%.

 

The aluminum price fluctuated widely in February, and the main factors for the decline on the 10th were:

 

1. Expected strengthening of supply increase

 

The supply increase is expected to strengthen, and the production resumption plan of Guizhou Province to reduce production capacity has been put on the agenda. The time for enterprises to resume production varies from late February to early April. The electrolytic aluminum production in Sichuan Province has resumed to nearly 70%, and Linfeng Aluminum Power has also resumed production; The news of production reduction in the early stage has not come to the ground yet, and the previously rumored power shortage in Yunnan will drive the electrolytic aluminum enterprises to increase the scale of production reduction by 60-8 million tons has not been fulfilled in time.

 

2. Weak cost support

 

The cost support is weakened, the price of alumina is basically stable, the price of anode in February is reduced by 660 yuan/ton month on month, and the price of steam coal is down.

 

3. There are many factories and warehouses

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

The accumulated inventory before and after the Spring Festival is in line with market expectations, but there are many factories and warehouses; As of February 9, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 173000 tons to 1188000 tons from the end of January, which is in the normal accumulation range; However, compared with the end of January, the factory warehouse increased by 35000 tons to 233000 tons, higher than the previous year’s level. Delivery pressure is concentrated on the manufacturer.

 

4. Downstream consumption is less than expected

 

After the Lantern Festival, the consumption was less than expected, the terminal construction was average, and the relevant new orders were average.

 

Aftermarket forecast

 

After the wide fluctuation of aluminum prices, there is a trend of jumping out of the operating range. It is expected that there will be little room to continue to decline in the short term. In the evening trading today, affected by the factors of the reduction of Russian crude oil production, we will wait and see whether the exploration of crude oil prices can drive the enthusiasm of futures speculation.

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The domestic cobalt price fell slightly on February 9

 

Chitosan oligosaccharide

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 9, the domestic cobalt price was 290000 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from 290700 yuan/ton on February 8 of the previous trading day. The domestic cobalt price fell slightly on February 9.

 

Analysis points

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

The cobalt price in LME market is weak and stable, the decline of MB cobalt price slows down, and the decline of international cobalt price slows down; The recovery of domestic economy is slow, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are higher than expected but lower than reality, the sales of mobile phones are low, and the recovery of cobalt market demand is less than expected. The import of cobalt raw materials has increased greatly, and the supply of cobalt is sufficient.

 

Aftermarket expectation

 

The decline of the international cobalt price slowed down, the demand recovery was less than expected, and the supply of cobalt market was sufficient. It is expected that the cobalt price will fall slightly in the future.

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Analysis: On February 8, the domestic liquid ammonia market rose slightly. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the daily increase in Shandong, the main production area, was 1.65%. Due to the increase of downstream orders and the decrease of enterprise inventory, large factories generally raised the ex-factory price by around 100 yuan/ton. The downstream urea operates at a high level, the agricultural demand increases, the industrial end just needs support, and the ammonia market rebounds at a low level. At present, the mainstream quotation is 4000-4200 yuan/ton.

 

Forecast: the downstream urea market is improving, the conversion of enterprise units to urea is gradually increasing, the later liquid ammonia production is limited, and the superimposed demand is moderately rising. It is expected that the ammonia market will still rise.

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The domestic acetic acid market is relatively strong in consolidation and operation. After the festival, the downstream replenishment and the enthusiasm for entering the market are relatively high. In addition, the main factory devices in North China and Northwest China are short stopped and negative, and the supply on the market is reduced. The market is bullish, and the price of acetic acid is rising all the way under the mood of buying up or not.

 

Chitosan oligosaccharide

According to the monitoring of bulk data of Business News Agency, as of February 3, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 3295 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.83% compared with the price of 3000 yuan/ton on January 27, and a year-on-year increase of 12.65%. As of February 3, the market price of acetic acid in various regions during the week was as follows:

 

Region/ January 28, February 3/ Price rise and fall

South China/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ +100

North China/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 3200 yuan/ton/ +200

Shandong region/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 3200 yuan/ton/ +150

Jiangsu Province/ 2900 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ +175

Zhejiang Province/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ +175

The upstream raw material methanol market fluctuated widely. As of February 3, the average price in the domestic market was 2704 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.52% compared with the price of 2690 yuan/ton on January 27. After the holiday, the demand was stimulated, and the methanol market rose sharply. However, because the price rose too fast, the acceptance of the downstream was not high, and some of the downstream had the demand for inventory discharge. The market bought gas generally, and the price of methanol fell in a narrow range.

 

The downstream acetic anhydride market was up. As of February 3, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5475 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.82% compared with the price of 5325 yuan/ton on January 27. The upstream acetic acid price rose sharply, the acetic anhydride cost support was good, the downstream replenishment after the festival, the demand was stable, the market negotiation atmosphere was good, and the acetic anhydride market rose and operated.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

The downstream butyl acetate market fluctuated and went up. As of February 3, the average ex-factory price of ethyl acetate in East China was 7450 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.24% compared with the price of 7287 yuan/ton on January 27. The raw material acetic acid market went up, and the downstream products were replenished in succession. The market profit was mostly good, and the market was strong.

 

According to the aftermarket forecast, the acetic acid analyst of the business agency believes that the downstream stock is active after the holiday, the supply of acetic acid in the field is less, the price of acetic acid continues to rise under the multiple benefits, the later maintenance device recovers, the utilization rate of acetic acid capacity increases, the supply of acetic acid in the field increases, and the downstream demand gradually returns to rationality. It is expected that the acetic acid market will operate on a wait-and-see basis, and the price will fluctuate in a small range. Pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

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According to the data of the Business News Agency, the spot market price of gold on February 2, 2023 was 424.66 yuan/g, up 0.7% per day, up 3.60% from the early average spot market price of 409.89 yuan/g at the beginning of the year (January 1); Compared with the early average spot market price of 389.84 yuan/kg at the beginning of October 2022 (October 1), the increase was 8.93%.

 

Chitosan oligosaccharide

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of silver market on February 2, 2023 was 5293.67 yuan/kg, up 2.13% per day, down 0.96 from the average price of spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1) at 5345 yuan/kg; Compared with the early average spot market price of 4368.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of October 2022 (October 1), the increase was 21.18%.

 

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

 

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

 

In 2022, the rise and fall trend of precious metal gold and silver will converge, but in April and August, silver will fall deeper, and the recent recovery will be more obvious. In December, silver will continue the strong market of last month, and gold will start to consolidate at a high level. In 2023, the price of precious metal gold will improve and silver will consolidate at a high level.

 

Macro fundamentals

 

The first rate increase by the Federal Reserve in 2023 met expectations

 

In 2023, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate increase at its first interest rate meeting, raising the target range of the policy interest rate, the federal funds rate, from 4.25% to 4.50% to 4.50% to 4.75%. At the subsequent press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that it would take time to tighten the financial situation after considering raising interest rates for about two more times and then suspending it. Powell remained confident in the soft landing of the US economy and believed that the US Congress would raise the debt ceiling, saying: “This is necessary”.

 

The first rate increase by the Federal Reserve in 2023 is basically in line with expectations, and the current rate increase by the United States is indeed coming to an end.

 

2. The European Central Bank has a high probability of following up the interest rate increase

 

In the UK, in view of the fact that the domestic inflation rate is still at the highest level in the past 40 years, the market expects the Bank of England to continue its most aggressive interest rate increase path in the past 30 years, by 50 basis points. In the euro area, President Lagarde of the European Central Bank recently made it clear that the European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates and fight against high inflation. It is widely expected that the European Central Bank will cut its balance sheet while raising interest rates by 50 basis points.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

Supply and demand fundamentals

 

According to the data of the World Gold Association, the annual gold demand (excluding OTC trading) in 2022 increased by 18% to 4741 tons year-on-year, which is the highest annual total demand since 2011. In 2022, the global central bank’s annual demand for gold purchase reached 1136 tons, more than double the 450 tons of the previous year and hit a new high in 55 years. In the fourth quarter of 2022 alone, global central banks purchased 417 tons of gold, and the total amount of gold purchased in the second half of the year also exceeded 800 tons.

 

On the supply side, in 2022, the global total supply of gold continued a mild upward trajectory, with a year-on-year increase of 2% to 4755 tons, which remained above the pre-epidemic level. It is worth noting that the output of gold mine reached a new high in four years, increasing to 3612 tons.

 

Domestically, according to the latest statistics of the China Gold Association, in 2022, the domestic raw material gold output was 372.048 tons, an increase of 43.065 tons compared with the same period in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 13.09%, including 295.423 tons of gold minerals and 76.625 tons of non-ferrous by-products. In addition, the gold production of imported raw materials in 2022 will be 125.784 tons, up 9.78% year on year. If this part of the gold production of imported raw materials is added, the country will produce 497.832 tons of gold, up 12.24% year on year. In 2022, the national gold consumption was 1001.74 tons, down 10.63% from the same period in 2021. Among them: 654.32 tons of gold jewelry, down 8.01% year on year; 258.94 tons of gold bars and coins, down 17.23% year on year; Industrial and other gold consumption was 88.48 tons, down 8.55% year on year. The People’s Bank of China continuously increased its gold holdings in November and December, with a total increase of 62.21 tons. By the end of 2022, China’s gold reserves had reached 2010.53 tons.

 

Precious metal aftermarket

 

Precious metals are relatively sensitive to macro fundamental factors due to their strong monetary attributes. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 points for the first time in 2023, basically in line with market expectations. At the same time, the market’s expectation of the gradual end of the current interest rate increase cycle began to be strong. The US dollar index and the US bond interest rate both fell sharply, which also contributed to the short-term rise of precious metals. However, the signal released after the meeting that the interest rate will not be cut this year and the economy will maintain moderate growth will also have some pressure on the continued rise of precious metal prices, including the upward energy. In the short term, it is expected that the price of precious metals will be mainly stable and strong.

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Glycol prices rose slightly in January

 

Chitosan oligosaccharide

In January 2023, the price of ethylene glycol moved up. According to the data of Business News Agency, on January 30, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4375 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the beginning of the month was 4050 yuan/ton, up 8.02%.

 

On January 30, the spot price of ethylene glycol in the East China market was basically stable, and the spot price range of mainstream manufacturers in East China was 4240-4350 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is basically stable, and the spot price range of mainstream manufacturers in South China is 4250 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the North China market was basically stable, and the spot price of mainstream manufacturers in North China remained at 4350 yuan/ton.

 

Downstream polyester market is good, which is good for ethylene glycol price. The spot center of gravity of ethylene glycol has moved up, and the production of large units has been reduced and changed, which has boosted market confidence and superimposed market expectations for demand recovery. As of January 29, 2023, the overall starting load of ethylene glycol in China was 59.6%, down 4.3 percentage points on a month-on-month basis, and the coal load remained about 57%, relatively stable. The integrated device stopped unexpectedly and the device load decreased.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

Overview of fundamentals

 

In terms of inventory, as of January 29, 2023, the inventory of the main storage area of ethylene glycol in East China was 1.0327 million tons, with seasonal accumulation.

 

In terms of supply, affected by the shutdown and decline of some large plants during the Spring Festival, the EG operation rate has dropped to 60%, and will be gradually restored after the festival. At present, the output of domestic stock devices is expected to continue to increase in the near future, and the total supply of EG may continue to increase.

 

Aftermarket forecast

 

In January, the price of ethylene glycol recovered, on the one hand, due to the impact of oil price driving and low valuation of itself, on the other hand, due to the reduction and conversion of large units, which boosted market confidence, the price may rebound. However, the supply and demand structure of medium and long term fundamentals is still weak, and it is expected that the volatility probability of glycol price platform will increase.

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Product diagram of plasticizer industry chain

 

From the product diagram of the plasticizer industry chain, it can be seen that the plasticizer is close to the terminal in the plasticizer industry chain, and the downstream products are mainly terminal consumer goods. In terms of upstream raw materials, the main raw materials of the plasticizer products are phthalic anhydride, isooctanol, n-butanol and PTA, while the raw materials OX, PX and propylene of these products are the downstream products of naphtha. The upstream raw materials of plasticizer products are relatively concentrated. The cost of raw materials is the main factor affecting the trend of plasticizer products.

 

In terms of plasticizer products, there are a wide variety of plasticizer products. At the research stage, there are as many as 1000 types of plasticizers, 300 types of industrial production, and more than 100 types of plasticizers widely used in the market. These plasticizers are competitive products, which can be replaced or used together. The downstream uses of plasticizers are wide, mainly including PVC products, plastic films, wires and cables, medical devices, etc.

 

Analysis of market trend of plasticizer industry chain products in 2022

 

Phthalic anhydride market in 2022

 

In 2022, phthalic anhydride rose by 12.20% in a M-shaped shock. The average price of phthalic anhydride on October 16 was 10637.5 yuan/ton, which was the highest price in the year. The lowest price was 7175 yuan/ton on January 1, with the maximum amplitude of 48.26% in the year.

 

In 2022, the capacity of phthalic anhydride will be about 3.7 million tons. The main uses include plasticizer and unsaturated resin industry, with plasticizer accounting for 47% and unsaturated resin accounting for 26%. The domestic phthalic anhydride market has a serious overcapacity. In addition, naphthalene phthalic anhydride continues to increase production capacity, and orthophthalic anhydride has been suppressed to some extent. The proportion of o-phthalic anhydride in plasticizer raw materials is weakened, and the correlation between phthalic anhydride and DOP is low. The correlation coefficient between phthalic anhydride and DOP is 0.003 in 2022.

 

Isooctanol market in 2022

 

In 2022, the price of isooctanol dropped by 3.95% annually. In 2022, the lowest price point is 8066.67 yuan/ton in mid-July, and the highest price point is 14533.33 yuan/ton in early February, with the annual maximum amplitude of 44.50%.

 

In 2022, the production capacity of isooctanol is about 2.35 million tons, and the downstream is mainly DOP, DOTP, and octyl acrylate, accounting for 97%. The main use of isooctanol is plasticizer, and isooctanol is highly positively correlated with plasticizer. The correlation coefficient between isooctanol and DOP in 2022 is 0.960.

 

Market of n-butanol in 2022

 

In 2022, n-butanol was adjusted in a wide range, with a drop of 1.61%. The highest annual price was 11933 yuan/ton on February 9, and the lowest annual price was 6566 yuan/ton on August 29, with an annual maximum amplitude of 44.97%.

 
In 2018, the capacity expansion of the n-butanol industry slowed down. In 2021, only one 40000 ton unit was put into operation, and the domestic n-butanol operating rate was more than 90%. n-butanol was mainly used to manufacture phthalate, aliphatic dicarboxylic acid and phosphoric acid n-butyl ester plasticizers. The correlation coefficient between n-butanol and DOP is 0.878.

 

PTA market in 2022

 

In 2022, PTA prices rose by 13.16% due to M-type shocks. The highest point was 7751 yuan/ton on June 9, and the lowest point was 4963 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, with a maximum amplitude of 56.19%. From 2020 to 2022, PTA will increase its annual production capacity by 8.3 million tons; It is estimated that 14.5 million tons of new capacity will be produced in 2023. In response to the substantial increase in production capacity, PTA processing costs fell sharply. From January to November 2022, PTA’s average annual processing costs were 482 yuan/ton. Only a few enterprises made profits, and PTA enterprises were forced to repair and reduce the burden. In 2022, the production capacity increased significantly, but the actual PTA production growth in 2022 was limited.

 

PTA is mainly used to produce polyester fiber, polyester bottle and polyester film. In the domestic market, 75% of PTA is used to produce polyester fiber; 20% for bottle grade polyester; 5% is used for film-grade polyester, and the plasticizer in the downstream of PTA is relatively small. The correlation between PTA and DOP is low, and the correlation coefficient between PTA and DOP is 0.171.

 

DOP market in 2022

 

Chitosan oligosaccharide

In 2022, the price of DOP was adjusted in a wide range, and the price of the whole year fell slightly, by 0.26%. The highest price in the year was 13400 yuan/ton on February 8, and the lowest price was 8775 yuan/ton on July 18, with a maximum amplitude of 34.51%. Good news and bad news mixed, and plasticizer prices fluctuated and consolidated in a wide range during the year.

 

Market trend of plasticizer products in 2022

 

The trend of plasticizers in 2022 can be divided into four stages: from January to March, the rapid rise stage, and February 8, the highest level in 2022. The Russian-Uzbekistan conflict intensified as a result of dual-scheduled goods preparation, limited production and transportation during the Winter Olympics, and the sharp rise in crude oil. From April to the middle of June, the high level fluctuated and consolidated. The epidemic in Shanghai has led to a decline in construction, poor demand and insufficient support for the rise; Strengthened prevention and control, limited transportation, equipment maintenance, multiple benefits stimulate the high price fluctuation adjustment of plasticizers. From mid-June to July, the off-season plummeted. The demand was insufficient, the epidemic situation improved, and the start of construction rose and transportation resumed. DOP fell 25.47%, DOTP fell 26.23%, and DBP fell 14.93%. From August to December, the low level fluctuated and consolidated. Electricity is limited and the peak season is not prosperous.

 

Analysis of influencing factors of plasticizer industry chain

 

Cost factor analysis

 

It can be seen from the comparison chart of the price trend of plasticizer products and raw material products that the price trend of isooctanol is basically the same as that of plasticizer DOP, DOTP and DBP, with a high positive correlation. The price trend of phthalic anhydride and PTA has little correlation with the trend of plasticizer products, and has little impact on the price trend of downstream plasticizers. The price trend of n-butanol and DBP have a high positive correlation. It can be seen from the product correlation that the price trend of isooctanol and n-butanol has the greatest impact on plasticizer products. The price trend of plasticizer products in the future should focus on the price trend of isooctanol and n-butanol.

 

Proportion change of plasticizer products

 

From the proportion of plasticizers, it can be seen that the proportion of DOP decreased significantly, the proportion of DOTP increased significantly, and the proportion of other environment-friendly plasticizers also increased to a certain extent. DOP: In 2002, China’s DOP capacity was about 2.9 million tons, and nearly 1/3 of the units could not operate normally, and the DOP operating rate was about 50%. Mainly used for PVC related products. DOTP: The production capacity increased from 1.05 million tons in 2015 to 3.04 million tons in 2022, with an increase of 1.99 million tons, nearly doubling. DBP: The capacity reached the peak of 1.05 million tons/year in 2015, and then contracted. In 2022, DBP capacity contracted to 850000 tons (including some long-term shutdown devices).

 

Import and export volume of plasticizers in 2022

 

The import volume of plasticizers decreased and the export volume increased. The import volume of DOP accounts for the largest proportion of plasticizers. The import volume has decreased significantly year by year, while the export volume has increased slowly year by year. The export volume of DOTP is basically zero, while the import volume is relatively stable. The import and export volume of DBP is relatively the smallest, among which the export volume is slowly decreasing and the import volume is basically not.

 

Production of plastic products in 2022

 

The downstream of plasticizer is mainly used to produce PVC products. In 2022, the total output of plastic products will be 70.833 million tons, down 3.9% year on year; The output of plastic products fell, the demand for plasticizers fell, and the rise of plasticizer products in 2022 was not supported enough.

 

Export volume of plasticized PVC products in 2022

 

In 2022, the import volume of plasticized PVC products will be lower than the export volume. In 2022, the import volume of plasticized PVC products decreased slightly year-on-year, which was significantly lower than that in 2020. After the epidemic, the import volume of plasticized PVC products decreased year by year. In 2022, the export volume of plasticized PVC products increased significantly year-on-year, and the export volume has increased steadily since 2020. Exports increased, imports decreased, the demand for plasticized PVC products increased, and the demand for plasticizers increased. Since the fourth quarter of 2020, the price of plasticizers has remained relatively high, and the increase in export demand is one of the important reasons.

 

Future prospects

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

According to DOP data analysts of the Business Agency, in 2022, the production and transportation restrictions of the Winter Olympics, the energy crisis, the crisis in Ukraine and Russia, and the epidemic situation were frequent, and the pros and cons were mixed. In 2022, the price of the plasticizer industry chain was adjusted in a wide range of shocks. The supply and demand of plasticizer industry chain is relatively balanced, and the price of plasticizer industry chain products is relatively stable throughout the year. The prices of isooctanol, n-butanol, DOP, DOTP, DBP and other industrial chain products fell slightly.

 

In 2023, worries about economic weakness intensified, domestic epidemic prevention and control were fully relaxed, domestic economic stimulus policies continued, and both sides were intertwined. In 2023, the market may show international economic weakness, and the domestic economy will recover.

 

In the future, the short-term annual close is approaching, the downstream stock of plasticizers has ended, the downstream enterprises have more holidays in advance, the demand for plasticizers before the holiday is insufficient, the price of plasticizers before the holiday is stable, the downstream stock replenishment increases after the holiday, and the plasticizers may rise briefly.

 

In the long run, in the post-epidemic era, the weakness of the foreign market economy continued, the demand for plasticizers weakened, and the expected recovery of the domestic economy had a positive support for plasticizers, but the positive was not enough to support the continuous rise of plasticizer prices. Since the fourth quarter of 2020, the price of plasticizers has remained high, which is mainly affected by the increase in exports after the outbreak of the epidemic. In 2023, the fear of foreign economic weakness has intensified, and exports may decline significantly. The price of plasticizers for the whole year of 2023 is expected to decline.

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In 2022, the energy and chemical raw material market experienced a sharp rise and fall in international oil prices, a surge in natural gas prices in Europe and the United States, a sharp rise in the price of coal under the aggravation of the contradiction between supply and demand, and an intensification of the energy crisis, while the domestic epidemic situation was repeated, and the chemical market entered a state of double pressure between supply and demand. In 2023, from various policies to stimulate domestic demand to the full liberalization of the epidemic, opportunities and challenges coexist, and we look forward to breaking the market.

 

In January 2023, the chemical industry index continued to hover at the bottom, with a mixed rise and fall. The contradiction between supply and demand remained serious. Domestic production and demand still needed time to recover. The chemical industry index fell from 917 points to 911 points, down 0.65% as of the 14th, and continued to fluctuate in a narrow range at the bottom.

 

In the list of commodity prices in the first half of January 2023, there were 43 commodities in the chemical sector that rose on a month-on-month basis, including 5 commodities that rose more than 10%, accounting for 4.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were MIBK (18.7%), propane (17.1%) and 1,4-butanediol (11.8%). There are 45 commodities with a month-on-month decline, and 6 commodities with a decline of more than 10%, accounting for 5.6% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three products falling were polysilicon (- 32.4%), coal tar (high temperature) (- 16.7%) and acetone (- 13.2%). Both rose and fell by – 0.1%.

 

MIBK (18.7%): After the New Year’s Day, the MIBK market rose sharply due to the tight supply expectations. The national average price rose from 14766 yuan/ton on January 2 to 17533 yuan/ton on January 13.

 

First, the supply is expected to be tight, with the shutdown of 50000 tons/year large units, and the domestic operating rate falling from 80% to 40%. The short-term supply is expected to be tight. Second, the main downstream antioxidant industries replenish after New Year’s Day, and the downstream factories also replenish after a period of small orders. As the holiday approaches, the demand of downstream small orders follows up, and the resistance to high-priced raw materials is obvious. With the supply of imported goods replenished, the price gradually peaked and the rising trend slowed down.

Chitosan oligosaccharide

 

Propane (17.1%): In 2003, the propane market got off to a good start. The average market price of Shandong propane rose from 5082 yuan/ton on the 2nd to 5920 yuan/ton on the 14th, of which the average market price reached 6000 yuan/ton on the 11th.

 

First, in the early stage, the price of the northern market was low, the downstream demand was relatively stable, the enterprises effectively destocked, and the downstream began to replenish goods after the festival, while the upstream inventory was low. At the same time, the recent port arrival volume was low, the market supply was reduced, and the price of propane began to rise strongly. Second, some PDH resumed work and the demand for chemical industry increased significantly. With the support of demand, the price of propane was easy to rise but difficult to fall. After the holiday, the price of propane rose strong in the north and weak in the south. In the early stage, the low-end sources of goods in the northern market were exported for arbitrage, effectively reducing the inventory. In the southern market, the prices were gradually adjusted due to high prices, and the goods were not moving smoothly. As the holiday approached, some factories entered the holiday mode, and migrant workers returned home. The market gradually peaked.

 

1,4-butanediol (11.8%): The bidding price of the industry rose sharply after the holiday, and the price of 1,4-butanediol rose from 9780 yuan/ton on the 2nd day to 10930 yuan/ton on the 13th day.

 

First, the production enterprises are reluctant to sell the goods in the spot market, while the main factories are bidding for the goods in the spot market and bidding for the goods in the spot market. In terms of devices, except for Dongjing Biological Phase I parking and maintenance, the industry’s burden fell slightly, and manufacturers continued to deliver contract orders. The BDO supply level is obviously positive. Second, the demand of PTMEG industry has increased with the increase of the restart load of BASF plant in Shanghai, and other downstream changes are not large, and the demand side is slightly positive. However, as the holiday approaches, some middle and lower reaches enter the holiday state in advance, and the overall trading volume of the market is limited.

 

Polysilicon (- 32.4%): After the New Year’s Day, the polysilicon market continued to fall in volume and price at the end of the year. After the festival, polysilicon fell by 78000 yuan/ton, and the market offer fell to 163333 yuan/ton on the 13th.

 

First, the supply is abundant, and manufacturers gradually accumulate stocks. The unit operating rate of silicon material enterprises remained high, and the number of orders signed by large factories continued to shrink. The contract price of large silicon material factories fell one after another due to the inactivity of downstream delivery. The supply of high-priced goods has gradually withdrawn from the market, and both volume and price are cooling down. In general, oversupply is the direct cause of price decline. Second, the overall demand of the downstream declined. Near the end of the year, the domestic installed demand decreased, especially for centralized projects, and the overseas winter demand dropped sharply, the labor shortage, and the order volume also declined. Both domestic and external demand were sluggish, leading to the decline of the PV industry chain. At present, the fundamental negative situation of silicon material is aggravated, the supply performance is excessive, and the demand is entering the off-season. The supply pressure will continue in the later period, but it is not ruled out that in the later period, due to the impact of the weather, the enterprise device maintenance, and comprehensive consideration, the silicon material market is still weak.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

Coal tar (high temperature) (- 16.7%): In January, the coal tar market fell sharply, from 6150 yuan/ton to 5130 yuan/ton. First, the bidding in Shanxi fell by 1000 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of coking enterprises was high, and the overall supply was loose. Second, the downstream deep-processing industry is sluggish, the demand is cold, and the overall demand is difficult to improve. Enterprises have many uncertain factors about the market after the Spring Festival, and they have little intention of inventory before the festival. They wait for the market to become clear after the festival.

 

Acetone (- 13.2%): The domestic acetone market has declined broadly, and the price of the East China factory has dropped from 5550 yuan/ton to 4820 yuan/ton.

 

First, the high operating rate is around 85%, and the port inventory rose to 32000 tons on the 9th, which is fast rising, and the pressure on supply side is increasing. Under the pressure of factory inventory, the shippers have great enthusiasm for shipment, and the supply pressure is expected to increase with the smooth production of Shenghong Refining and Chemical Phenol Ketone Plant. Second, the downstream procurement is sluggish. Although the downstream MIBK market has soared, the operating rate has fallen to a low point and the demand is insufficient. The participation of middlemen is relatively low. Under the condition of cold market trading, the market has declined in a wide range. As the market falls, the pressure on phenolic ketone enterprises to lose money has increased. Although most factories wait for the market to be clear after the holiday to purchase again, the market offer has stopped falling and increased under the pressure of profit. The market will gradually become clear after the holiday.

 

From the perspective of upstream crude oil, the recent winter storm hit the United States, and crude oil is expected to fluctuate at a low level, weakening the cost support for petrochemical products. In the long run, the oil market faces not only macro pressure, economic recession cycle constraints, but also the game between supply and demand. On the supply side, there are risks of Russian production decline and OEPC+production reduction to support the bottom. The demand side is suppressed by the macro cycle, depressed by the sluggish supply and demand, and supported by the growth of Asian demand. The oil market is affected by macro and micro bullishness, so it is more likely to maintain broad volatility.

 

On the demand side, domestic economic policies clearly adhere to the domestic big cycle, do a good job in the international and domestic double cycle, and fully open up in the post-epidemic era, but the unavoidable reality is that the entity is still relatively weak, and the wait-and-see mood increases after the pain. In terms of terminals, the domestic policy on the epidemic has been optimized, and the confidence in logistics and consumption has been restored, but the demand for short-term terminals in the off-season of the Spring Festival and in the recovery period may be difficult to make a significant turnaround.

 

In 2023, China’s economy will recover slowly, but in the face of the global economic downturn and the expected intensification of economic recession in Europe and the United States, China’s export market of bulk products will still face challenges. In 2023, the chemical industry capacity will continue to grow steadily. In the past year, the domestic chemical industry capacity has shown a steady growth, with 80% of the main chemical products showing a growth trend and only 5% of the capacity declining. In the future, driven by the supporting devices and profit chain, the chemical industry capacity will continue to expand, and the market competition will be further intensified. The profits of enterprises that are difficult to form the advantage of the industrial chain in the future may be under pressure, but there are also backward capacity to be eliminated. In 2023, more large and medium-sized enterprises will pay attention to the growth of downstream sub-industries. With the continuous breakthroughs in domestic technology, environmental protection, high-end new materials, electrolyte and wind power industry chain will be more and more valued by large enterprises. In the context of dual-carbon, backward enterprises will accelerate the elimination, and new industries will penetrate into domestic substitution.

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