1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China on June 19th was 2583 yuan/ton. On June 25th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 2550 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate decreased by 1.29%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China on June 19th was 3810 yuan/ton. On June 25th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3812 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate increased by 0.18%.

2、 Market analysis

On Monday this week, the price of ammonium decreased and ammonium chloride adjusted narrowly. This week, the market for raw material phosphate ore and sulfur weakened, and prices continued to decline, weakening cost support. Currently in the off-season of demand, the demand side consolidation performance is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is poor. Downstream procurement is on demand. As of June 25th, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton, while the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is around 2500-2600 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The quotation for 64% diammonium in Shandong is around 3500-3800 yuan/ton, while the quotation for 57% diammonium in Shandong is around 2650-3000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, domestic sulfur prices have fallen this week. The sulfur manufacturer’s equipment is operating normally, with sufficient market supply and average enthusiasm for downstream market entry. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the refinery’s shipment is not smooth. The operator’s mentality is not good, and the quotation is lowered to stimulate shipment. The focus of market transactions has shifted downward, and the short-term sulfur market is weak.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole showed a weak decline this week. Prior to the holiday, the downstream stage stocking of phosphate ore was generally carried out, and the weak demand side continued to loosen the support for the phosphate ore market. Phosphate ore shipments gradually slowed down, and some mining companies implemented early shipment plans. The supply and demand sides of phosphate ore showed a stalemate, and some mining companies started to sell at discounted prices, lowering the prices of mid to high grade phosphate ore shipments. As of June 25th, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 950-1080 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the market for ammonium phosphate has recently stabilized slightly and overall demand is light. Downstream restocking is the main demand, and the current market quotation is chaotic. It is expected that the market price of ammonium phosphate will be weak in the short term, and the main focus will be on consolidation and operation.

Recently, the domestic PTA Spot market has shown a volatile upward trend. As of June 22, the average price of Spot market in East China was 5695 yuan/ton, up 1.77% from June 12.

The burden reduction of large raw material PX devices has led to a decrease in operating load, resulting in a tightening of PX supply. In the short term, prices may strengthen, providing positive support for PTA.

The profit performance of downstream polyester products is fair, the overall inventory of the market is reasonably controllable, and the factory production enthusiasm is high. At present, the polyester industry starts at more than 90%. And after the new device is put into operation, the load gradually increases, and it is expected that the overall market supply will slightly increase.

However, there have been many restarts of PTA devices in China recently, and the current operating load of PTA devices has increased to around 80%. At the same time, the off-season of terminals has dragged down the demand market, with some weaving factories shutting down for holidays or reducing operating rates. The comprehensive operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 60%, and there is currently no sign of improvement in the domestic and foreign markets.

Analysts from Business Society believe that short-term crude oil prices fluctuate widely, and a tightening of PX supply may result in strong cost support for PTA. Downstream polyester factories currently do not have the power to actively reduce load, and will still maintain a relatively vigorous operating state. But in the situation where it is difficult to open terminal orders, there is still pressure on the demand side. Overall, short-term PTA is expected to be mainly adjusted with cost fluctuations.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the TDI price in East China has continued to rise since June. As of June 20, the average market price in East China was 17800 yuan/ton, 1800 yuan/ton higher than the price of 16000 yuan/ton on June 1, up 11.25% in the month.

The domestic TDI market operated strongly. At the beginning of the month, the market performance was quiet, and the price of the floor traders was mainly stable. Then, it was heard that a large factory in Shanghai cooperated with the park to reduce the load in early June. The attitude of the industry was bullish, and the TDI offer moved up. Later, BASF equipment parking in Shanghai, Covestro weekly executive price hike and other supplier information were released. The intention of the supplier to support the market was gradually obvious. The trade market followed the guidance of the big factory news, and the TDI offer continued to rise. The market supply was tight, There is strong bullish sentiment on the market, with TDI prices showing a significant upward trend.

The upstream toluene market is operating weakly, with the domestic average price of toluene at around 7110 yuan/ton as of June 20th, an overall decrease of 0.56% compared to the price of 7150 yuan/ton on June 1st. The international crude oil price is relatively strong, and the profit of toluene is declining. Affected by market pessimism, downstream demand is weak, and the market mainly focuses on purchasing hard demand. The toluene industry has a cautious attitude and adjusts prices based on inventory consumption, resulting in a weak and volatile toluene market.

After market analysis, TDI data analysts from the business agency believe that on the supply side, some factories have low load, and the market’s spot performance is tight. However, the market mentality has a significant impact, and the supply of goods is tight. Holders’ quotations are bound to rise. Downstream, due to the traditional off-season of the terminal market, demand follow-up is limited, and there is resistance to high priced TDI, which limits the increase in TDI. It is expected that the overall operation of the future market will be strong, with prices may fluctuate in a narrow range, Follow up on specific issues.

This week (6.12-6.19), the market of chloroform declined slightly. According to the data of the business society, as of June 19, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong was 2075 yuan/ton, down 2.35% from 2125 yuan/ton last Monday. The price of raw material methanol rose slightly but remained at a low level, and the cost support of chloroform was weak; Some downstream enterprises purchased a small amount of goods, and the transaction of chloroform market was flat. Chloroform market fluctuated and fell back.

This week (6.12-6.19), there was a slight fluctuation in the start of the methane chloride plant.

This week (6.12-6.19), the price of raw methanol rose slightly but remained low, and the cost support of chloroform remained weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 19th, the spot price of methanol was 2065 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.48% compared to the 2015 yuan/ton last Monday.

Short term replenishment orders ended, coupled with a small amount of low demand for domestic refrigerant starting, the price of some downstream refrigerant R22 enterprises for shutdown and maintenance was temporarily stable, and chloroform fell slightly in the short term. In addition, the total production quota of R22 in 2023 was reduced by 19% to 181800 tons, which made it difficult to improve the demand for chloroform in the medium and long term.

According to the methane chloride data analysts of Business Society, although the overall domestic demand support for chloroform is weak at present, it is expected that the chloroform market will narrow in the later period.

This week’s lead market (6.9-6.16) fluctuated upwards, with the average price in the domestic market at 15055 yuan/ton over the weekend and 15265 yuan/ton over the weekend, up 1.39%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. Since the market entered September, the expectations of downstream battery companies have increased during the peak season, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the peak season ended, prices continued to weaken, and the market trend was somewhat volatile.

In terms of the futures market, the U.S. Dollar Index plunged this week, and Lun Lead went up. The price of lead was boosted and kept up. The Spot market mostly followed the fluctuation of Shanghai Lead, and the price was the main player this week. In terms of supply and demand, supply has been slightly tight this week, and primary lead manufacturers have recently started maintenance, resulting in an overall decline in operating rates. Due to losses during the off-season, recycled lead companies have actively limited production and reduced operating rates, leading to a tightening of lead ingot supply this week compared to the previous period, boosting market sentiment. In terms of demand, the downstream consumer end is still in the off-season, and battery companies have production reduction plans. The procurement of raw materials and power is insufficient, and most of them maintain just in demand procurement. In terms of waste batteries, most of the quotations in Henan, Shandong, and other places have followed the rise of lead prices, and discussions in the high market are limited, with only sporadic transactions. The downstream still lacks the support of actual demand, offsetting the good from the supply side. The Spot market as a whole shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. In the future, the Business Society predicts that the main trend will remain weak and volatile in the short term, with limited market volatility in the off-season. We will pay attention to the impact of macro level news on the market in the future.

London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory of 36800 tons will be temporarily stable on June 18, 2023 (unit: ton)

On June 18th, the base metal index stood at 1208 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.25% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 88.16% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month on the list of commodity prices in the 24th week of 2023 (6.12-6.16), with nickel (4.71%), tin (4.05%), and cobalt (3.38%) ranking among the top 3 commodities. There are a total of 8 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with the top 3 products falling being metal silicon (-2.99%), magnesium (-2.62%), and silver (-1.70%). This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.56%.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, as of June 13th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4850 yuan/ton, and the DMF price showed a narrow and weak trend, falling by 5.6% in the week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4800 yuan/ton.

This week, the overall DMF market is mainly in a weak position. Since June, the DMF market has shown a continuous downward trend, with prices dropping by 5.6% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4800.00 yuan/ton, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is average. Shipping is slow, and manufacturers are giving up on orders.

Chemical Index: On June 12th, the chemical index reached 820 points, a decrease of 4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 41.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 37.12% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

DMF analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the DMF market will operate steadily and weakly.

1、 Price data

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of Petroleum coke of the local refiner declined this week. On June 11, the average price of Shandong market was 1846.50 yuan/ton, down 1.60% from the price of 1876.50 yuan/ton on June 5.

On June 11, the Petroleum coke commodity index was 143.62, unchanged from yesterday, down 64.86% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and up 114.71% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of Petroleum coke produced by local refineries continued to decline. Local refineries actively discharged their stocks. The downstream was in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the trading was average. At present, the port Petroleum coke inventory is still high, and the terminal just needs replenishment, so the overall trade is average.

The international crude oil market has been volatile this week. Affected by the favorable supply of Saudi Arabia’s plan to deepen production cuts, the bullish sentiment in the market has diluted the bearish sentiment of rising US refined oil inventories and weak Chinese data. The international crude oil prices are in a consolidation trend.

The price of calcined coke remained basically stable this week. This week, metal silicon declined slightly. As of June 11, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the Spot market was 14090 yuan/ton. The downstream electrolytic aluminum market is on the rise, with an average price of 18666.67 yuan/ton as of June 11th. Downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see attitude and low enthusiasm for receiving goods, with on-demand procurement being the main focus.

Petroleum coke analysts from the business agency believe that: at present, domestic Petroleum coke supply is sufficient, local refining Petroleum coke delivery is average, refineries actively arrange stocks, downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mood, receiving enthusiasm is not high, and procurement is mainly on demand. It is expected that the local refining of Petroleum coke in the near future will be dominated by weak points.

Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price trend of Cryolite in Henan is stable. On June 9, the average market price in Henan was 7850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the average price of 7850 yuan/ton on June 3, up 0.32% month on month.

quotations analysis

This week, the Cryolite market is waiting to be sorted out, and the manufacturer’s quotation is stable and small. The upstream operating rate is low, the raw material support continues to be favorable, Cryolite production is under pressure, the on-site devices operate at low load, the enterprise inventory is maintained rationally, the downstream is more resistant to high prices, the market purchase follows up as required, Cryolite enterprises are wait-and-see, maintain an active shipping, the market negotiation atmosphere is improved compared with last week, some enterprises ship smoothly, the inventory is lower, and Cryolite prices are slightly increased. As of June 9, the ex factory quotation of Cryolite in Shandong was 7000-8600 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton; The ex factory quotation of Cryolite in Henan is 7200-8900 yuan/ton, and the price is increased by 100 yuan/ton within the range.

Upstream fluorite prices have slightly decreased, with an average market price of 3136.25 yuan/ton as of June 9, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the price of 3143.75 yuan/ton on June 3. The operating rate of fluorite enterprises has slightly increased, and spot supply has increased. However, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and the shortage of raw material supply continues to exist, providing support to the fluorite market. The price decline is not significant, and the market situation is wait-and-see.

The downstream aluminum market first fell and then rose. On June 9th, the aluminum price was around 18666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45% compared to the price of 18583.33 yuan/ton on June 3rd. Terminal consumption is weak, downstream demand support is insufficient, market trading and negotiation are the main focus, and some regions have significantly reduced inventory. Adjustments and increases are made based on their own shipment situation, resulting in fluctuating aluminum prices.

Future Market Forecast

Cryolite enterprises are short of raw materials in stock. Upstream support continues to be good. The manufacturers maintain a positive shipping attitude, and the market mentality is good. Downstream market entry follows up as required. Market transaction and investment negotiations are the main topic. Supply and demand in the market are relatively stable. It is expected that Cryolite market will wait and see later.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong Province has recently dropped in shock. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong Province was 4850.00 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average production price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong Province was 4775.00 yuan/ton, down 1.55%, 5.68% month on month, and 11.30% year on year.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is weak and the support for methanol production costs is weakened. The Baofeng unit is recovering, the supply in mainland China is increasing, and the local formaldehyde load is decreasing, resulting in a decrease in methanol demand. As prices decline, traders and downstream sentiment weaken accordingly. The ex factory price of methanol in the southern region of Shandong is referenced to be around 2130 yuan/ton in cash exchange, while the delivery price in Linyi is referenced to be around 2150-2170 yuan/ton in cash exchange. The local methanol factory in central Shandong quoted a price of 2150-2190 yuan/ton for self delivery. The negotiated price range for methanol in the Dongying area of Shandong Province is 2080-2090 yuan/ton.

Recently, the methanol market is weak and low, and the cost support is poor. It is difficult for downstream demand to change significantly in a short time. The Paraformaldehyde analysts of the business agency predict that the price may fall slightly.

Product name: Sulfur

Latest price: On June 6th, the average sulfur price in East China was 833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.63% compared to the previous working day price of 820.00 yuan/ton.

Analysis: The domestic sulfur market is on the rise, with prices generally rising. The operation of refinery units in Shandong region is average, and the market supply remains rational. The consumption in the end industry is off-season, and downstream enthusiasm is weak. Entering the market to obtain goods is mainly based on demand, while sulfur manufacturers are actively shipping. Some enterprises have good shipments, and inventory has decreased, leading to an upward trend in sulfur prices.

Future forecast: Currently, there is no inventory pressure in sulfur refining plants, downstream demand is limited, and there is a lack of effective support for positive market conditions on the market. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the sulfur market will be sorted out, and prices may fluctuate slightly. Please pay attention to the follow-up situation downstream.