Price trend

In early July, the domestic POM market was positive, with spot prices rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 7th, the average factory price of domestic POM was 11475 yuan/ton, a decrease of+3.38% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market prices in the Shandong region were sorted and operated in early July. The main focus is on the sorting of raw material methanol, and the expected increase in market supply and inventory. Downstream sheet metal factories have poor operating rates due to high temperatures, causing a tug of war between supply and demand. It is expected that formaldehyde prices will mainly fluctuate and adjust in the near future.

On the supply side:

The operating rate of domestic POM enterprises remained high in early July, and some maintenance enterprises in the early stage resumed work. Currently, the industry’s load is about 94% close to full capacity. The high load situation continues, but after initial destocking, the inventory pressure of most enterprises gradually decreases and the supply of goods becomes tight.

In terms of demand:

At present, the POM supply on site has decreased, and the enthusiasm of terminal enterprises for stocking has increased. However, the impact of limited electricity and other factors on downstream enterprises’ operating rates has not improved, and the consumption release situation is average, with limited impact on spot prices. Traders have decent confidence.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market rose this week. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants remains high, and the supply of goods on site is beginning to be tight. Industry inventory pressure has eased, and supplier support for spot goods is still acceptable. On the demand side, downstream enterprises have started construction on a low level and the order situation is average. There is currently some speculative sentiment on the market, and it is expected that the POM market may rise in the short term due to a decrease in supply.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from June 29th to July 6th, the market price of butadiene in China increased from 5973 yuan/ton to 6362 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.51% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 0.60%, and a year-on-year decrease of 38.90%.

Major production enterprises such as Sinopec have raised their factory quotations, which has boosted the mentality of merchants in offering, but downstream companies are resistant to high prices. The transaction of some offshore cargo in South Korea and Southeast Asia is still acceptable, but the price is still lower than the domestic spot price, so it is temporarily difficult to bring a significant boost to the domestic market.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International crude oil prices have fluctuated upwards, and WTI crude oil in the United States was closed on Tuesday. Affected by supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, prices have increased. In addition, data from the American Chamber of Petroleum (API) shows a significant decrease in US inventory last week. On July 6th, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil in the business community was 76.25 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 2.34% compared to the beginning of this month (74.51 US dollars per barrel).

In terms of Naphtha, the domestic Naphtha market is weak. On July 6th, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil in the business community was 76.25 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 2.34% compared to the beginning of this month (74.51 US dollars per barrel). The cost of butadiene is mixed.

On the supply side, the main production enterprise Sinopec East China Sales Company has raised the price of butadiene by a cumulative 500 yuan/ton, and as of July 6th, the listed price was 6600 yuan/ton. The shutdown of Shandong Weite and Hangzhou Yibang units has had a positive impact on the short-term supply of butadiene.

On the demand side, dragged by cost and demand side bearish factors, the downstream synthetic rubber market is weak and declining, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The synchronous downtrend of upstream and downstream products affects the industrial chain profits, making it difficult to effectively move down, and it is difficult to find demand support in the butadiene market. The demand for butadiene is weak.

On July 5th, the closing price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea was quoted at 585-595 US dollars per ton; China CFR report $645-655 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $365- $375 per ton; FD Northwestern Europe closed at 555-565 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, although the supplier price is relatively strong, the external price is still lower than the domestic spot price, causing downstream merchants to be cautious about future market expectations. Butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

Aluminum prices moved down on July 5th

 
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on July 5, 2023, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18326.67 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.22%.

In the long term, the current price is in the sideways range after a high price decline, and has been fluctuating in the range of 17500 to 19500 yuan/ton.

Overview of Fundamentals

Supply side: During the rainy season in the southwest region, with the lifting of power load restrictions in Yunnan, it is expected that there will be a production capacity of 1 to 1.3 million tons to resume production, and there is an expected increase in domestic electrolytic aluminum supply; At the same time, there is news of a production reduction in Shandong. Overall, there is an expected increase in the supply of electrolytic aluminum in China.

On the demand side: The weekly operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is expected to decrease month on month, and there may be no significant improvement near the off-season in the future. The overall weakness of terminal real estate is still weak, but there is support for the completion end of the short-term insured delivery policy, with weak data on new construction projects, and stronger demand for aluminum downstream in the near term than in the long term; Looking forward to the growth of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, and ultra-high voltage industries in the later stage.

July aluminum price or 18000 yuan/ton first-line horizontal range

Aluminum ingot inventory is still at a historical low level, and Yunnan production is expected to release. From a cost perspective, in terms of alumina, due to the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Yunnan and the news that local alumina production capacity will be reduced due to mine reclamation in Henan, the short-term volatility of alumina prices is relatively strong, and the cost support is slightly strengthened. Short term supply pressure may become prominent at the end of July, and it is expected that the social inventory of aluminum ingots will accumulate in July. Short term aluminum prices will move sideways around the 18000 price range.

Trade name: Potassium chloride (imported)

Latest price (July 4th): 2725 yuan/ton

The price of imported Potassium chloride in the domestic market fell slightly on July 4, down 50 yuan/ton, or 1.80%, from July 3. At present, the port’s 62% self raised price of white potassium is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton; The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 2700-2800 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2200-2300 yuan/ton. The arrival price of Potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is about 2400-2500 yuan/ton. The international potassium fertilizer market has slightly declined. The downstream potassium carbonate market declined slightly, while the Potassium nitrate market rose slightly. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general.

In the future, the price of Potassium chloride in China may fall slightly, mainly due to consolidation. The import market price of Potassium chloride is about 2700 yuan/ton.

The price of plasticizers fluctuated and stabilized in the first half of the year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the plasticizer market fluctuated and adjusted extensively in the first half of the year, and the overall plasticizer price stabilized. As of June 30th, the DOP price was 9666.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared to January 1st, when the DOP price was 9750 yuan/ton; On June 30th, the price of DOTP was 9750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% compared to January 1st, when DOTP was 9800 yuan/ton; On June 30th, the price of DBP was 8787.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.14% compared to January 1st, when DBP was 9566.67 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the overall demand for plasticizers was weak, with sufficient supply of raw materials such as isooctanol and n-butanol. The cost of plasticizers was weakened and lowered, and the prices of plasticizers were fluctuating and stabilizing. In the relatively stable plasticizer market in the first half of the year, there were two brief peak periods. After the Spring Festival and May Day, plasticizer prices briefly soared, but demand was weak, and the support for plasticizer increases could not be sustained. After a brief increase, plasticizer prices quickly fell back and quickly broke through pre holiday prices.

Weak consolidation of isooctanol prices in the first half of the year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 30th, the price of isooctanol was 9350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.94% from January 1st at 9733.33 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and adjusted widely, resulting in a decrease in overall isooctanol prices, a decrease in the cost of plasticizer products, and insufficient support for the increase in plasticizers.

In the first half of the year, the market for raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of June 30th, the quoted price for phthalic anhydride was 7700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.50% compared to the price of 8062.50 yuan/ton on January 1st. In the first quarter, the price of phthalic anhydride was affected by the increase in raw material prices, causing a fluctuation and increase in the price of phthalic anhydride. In the second quarter, the raw material of phthalic anhydride decreased, coupled with the price drop of naphthalene phthalic anhydride, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride significantly decreased. Overall, in the first half of the year, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and decreased, resulting in a decrease in the cost of plasticizer raw materials and an increase in the downward pressure on plasticizers.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated significantly in the first half of the year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 30th, the price of n-butanol was 7316.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.41% compared to January 1st, when the price of n-butanol was 8166.67 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the price of n-butanol plummeted significantly, with sufficient supply and weak demand for n-butanol. As the main downstream of n-butanol, the cost of plasticizer DBP decreased. In the first half of the year, DBP prices fluctuated and fell, increasing the downward pressure on plasticizers.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the demand for plasticizers remained weak in the first half of the year, and there was insufficient support for the rise of plasticizers; On the raw material side, the prices of isooctanol have weakened and consolidated, the prices of phthalic anhydride have fluctuated and fallen, the prices of n-butanol have significantly decreased, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, the prices of plasticizer DBP have plummeted, and the downward pressure on plasticizer products has increased. In the future, demand remains weak, with limited support for rising prices of raw materials such as isooctanol, phthalic anhydride, and n-butanol. The cost of plasticizers has decreased, and the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is around 60%. The supply of plasticizers is sufficient, and demand is weak, with insufficient cost support. It is expected that plasticizer prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.

List of ethylene glycol prices

According to data from Business News Agency, on June 30th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 3963.33 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 3.41%. The prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 3800-4075 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 3900 yuan/ton, while the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 3850 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4150 yuan/ton.

On June 28th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was $448/ton, a decrease of $2/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 473 US dollars per ton.

At present, the price of coal based ethylene glycol is relatively low, with factory prices ranging from 3450 to 3500 yuan/ton.

June Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals

From the perspective of the supply side, there are plans to restart domestic maintenance devices in the near future, and there is an expectation of a rebound in supply in the future. A 750000 ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang recently restarted, which had previously shut down in early May. The daily load of the 700000 ton unit of Fujian Gulei Petrochemical has been reduced from 85% to around 80%, which has little impact on the overall supply.

In terms of demand: The overall production and sales of polyester fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have declined, and the production of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has declined slightly. Currently, the polyester load has not changed significantly, and further observation is needed.

In terms of imports, some maintenance devices in the Asian region are planned to restart in the early stage, and it is expected that the import volume of ethylene glycol may rebound in the future.

July ethylene glycol variables

At the end of June, coal and ethylene prices bottomed out and rebounded. The news of Iran’s installation drove up methanol prices, supporting ethylene glycol prices to some extent on the cost side. The decline in crude oil inventory in July, coupled with high temperatures, has sparked market concerns about electricity consumption. The rise in overseas natural gas has boosted energy prices, and crude oil has continued to rebound. Coupled with domestic macroeconomic policy expectations, there are some cost side positive expectations to some extent.

From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, there is an expectation of an increase in the supply side of ethylene glycol in July. Downstream demand is affected by the weakness of the terminal, and it remains to be seen whether the current high start-up rate can be maintained. Overall, the expectation of a weakening of ethylene glycol supply and demand month on month is expected.

The dynamic game between cost and supply sides may intensify in July, and it is expected that ethylene glycol will continue to experience weak fluctuations in July.

Zinc prices fluctuated and rose in June

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 29th, the zinc price was 20250 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.95% compared to June 1st, which was 19480 yuan/ton. Macro positive news has increased, and the zinc market is positive, with zinc prices fluctuating and rising in June.

The Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes in June, macroeconomic benefits

A number of economic data in the United States reflect that the U.S. economy is more resilient than Europe. The Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes in June, and the recovery of macroeconomic sentiment pulled up U.S. stocks. In June, the U.S. Dollar Index fell continuously, hitting a new low since mid May; The trend of non-ferrous metal production has increased, the international macroeconomic environment has warmed up, and the zinc market is positive.

However, the overall inflation in the United States is still at a high level. Federal Reserve Powell released the signal of continuous interest rate increase. In late June, the U.S. Dollar Index rose in a volatile manner. The support for the international economy’s macro positive weakened, and the zinc market’s positive weakened.

Expected decrease in zinc market supply

From the trend chart of zinc concentrate processing fees, it can be seen that in June, the zinc concentrate processing fees stabilized, and zinc smelting enterprises showed average enthusiasm for starting operations. The supply of zinc in the market was temporarily stable, and the support for the increase in zinc prices was insufficient.

Sweden’s Boliden has suspended production of the largest zinc mine in Europe, and the Ronnskar smelter has shut down due to a fire, leading to a decrease in supply expectations for the European zinc market and increased support for the rise of the zinc market.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the international economic environment rebounded in June, with non-ferrous metals bullish and bullish, while zinc prices followed suit. China has increased its support for real estate, infrastructure investment is improving, and the central bank’s MLF has cut interest rates. This has led to an increase in positive news for the domestic economy, stimulating a rebound in market sentiment and a rebound in the zinc market. Zinc smelters in Europe have ceased production, and the supply of zinc in the market is expected to decrease. Multiple positive factors stimulate the fluctuating rise of zinc prices. In the future, the expectation of macroeconomic recovery weakens, the supply of zinc is relatively sufficient, and the support for the rise of zinc market is insufficient. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the decline of the domestic PTA market slowed down in June, mainly due to shock adjustment. As of June 28, the average price of Spot market in East China was 5631 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from the beginning of the month, down 18.73% year on year.

There is no obvious driving force on the supply and demand side of crude oil, and the oil price range fluctuates. As of June 27th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $67.70 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.51 per barrel. However, the unplanned production reduction and operation of PX large factories in June caused concerns about the tight supply of PX, providing positive support for the cost side of PTA. At present, overseas PX supply has resumed, new domestic devices have been successfully discharged, and PX supply is becoming more relaxed.

The PTA market is facing destocking in June, but there have been many restarts of domestic PTA devices since late July. Currently, the operating load of PTA devices has increased to over 80%, and it is expected to enter the accumulation phase after July.

The off-season of downstream terminals has dragged down the demand market, with some weaving factories shutting down for holidays or reducing operating rates. The comprehensive operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 60%, and there is currently no sign of improvement in the domestic and foreign markets. The performance of the foreign trade market is poor. According to customs data, China’s cumulative exports of textile and clothing products from January to May amounted to 118.2 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, including a 9.4% year-on-year decrease in textiles and a 1.0% year-on-year decrease in clothing. In May, textiles decreased by 14.1% year-on-year, while clothing decreased by 12.4%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that there is still support for the cost side stage, but there is an expected increase in PTA inventory and supply, and the off-season characteristics of terminal textiles from July to August will become more obvious. Negative feedback on demand is heating up, and it is expected that PTA prices may operate weakly in July.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 753 yuan/ton on June 1st, and 663 yuan/ton on June 27th. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 11.95% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The ammonium sulfate market continued to weaken this month, with prices fluctuating and falling. This month, the low level of coking grade ammonium sulfate was sorted and the price was adjusted narrowly. The quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate has been lowered. The international market for ammonium sulfate remains weak, with fewer orders. The downstream composite fertilizer market is generally weak, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. This month, urea prices weakened, negatively affecting the ammonium sulfate market. As of June 27th, the mainstream factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Henan region is around 670 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 700 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly fluctuations from March 27, 2023 to June 19, 2023, it can be seen that the rise and fall of domestic ammonium sulfate cycle are mixed. There was a significant decline in June, with the largest decline of -4.47% in the week ending June 5th.

This month, the market trend of downstream compound fertilizer was weak, and the price was low. The trend of composite fertilizer raw materials is not good, and cost support is weak. Downstream demand is sluggish, the market is sluggish, and short-term market conditions are difficult to improve.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the demand for ammonium sulfate in domestic and foreign markets has been poor recently, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The downstream market is sluggish, with small purchases of raw materials being the main focus, and dealers are cautious in their operations. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will continue to decline in the short term.

According to the market analysis system of the Business Society, in June, during a long short game, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline in the early stage, with a drop of over 6%. At the end of the month, it experienced a significant rebound, with a daily increase of over 6.8%. Throughout June, hydrogen peroxide rose by 1.29%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 773 yuan/ton. On June 26th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 783 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.29%.

Long Short Game: The Hydrogen Peroxide Market in June experienced ups and downs

At the beginning of the month, due to weak terminal demand and loose supply, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers had weak confidence in price support, and multiple bearish pressures led to a continued weak and downward trend in the hydrogen peroxide market. The market has been declining continuously for more than half a month, and the mainstream quotation has dropped to around 720 yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 7%.

Starting from the middle of the month, the demand in the terminal printing and papermaking industry has improved, and the hydrogen peroxide market has gradually rebounded. At the end of the month, there has been a significant rebound, with an increase of over 8%, and the overall increase of hydrogen peroxide has exceeded 1%.

Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers will restart their hydrogen peroxide devices in the future, with loose supply. It is expected that the hydrogen peroxide market may experience a decline in July.