Trade name: TDI

Latest price (June 8): 17175 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the average price of TDI market in East China today is the same as that of the previous working day, and the market situation is on the sidelines. The factory has a firm attitude of supporting the market, the guidance price has been raised, the attitude of the goods holders is optimistic, the offer is temporarily stable, the enthusiasm for downstream inquiry has increased, the purchase in the market continues to be just needed, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 16800 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 17000-17300 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: in the later stage, TDI market will wait and see, focusing on market supply and downstream follow-up.

On June 7, the rare earth index was 856 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 15.00% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 215.87% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index is rising. The prices of some domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series are rising. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is rising by 5000 yuan / ton to 962500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is rising by 5000 yuan / ton to 1165000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is rising by 2500 yuan / ton to 980000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 975000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is rising by 10000 yuan / ton to 1265000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium is rising by 1195000 yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide is 2.57 million yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.655 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium metal is 3.35 million yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic light rare earth market is rising, and the recent procurement is general. The price of dysprosium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market is declining, while the price of terbium series is temporarily stable. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand, and Myanmar prohibits exports. It is expected that the price trend of domestic rare earth market will rise slightly in the later period.

On the cost side, crude oil and the external market continued to strengthen, and the external support was strong. Today, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton to 9500 yuan / ton, driving the positive rise of the pure benzene market. Today, the price of pure benzene in China is 9200-9650 yuan / ton.

The inventory level of aniline enterprises is normal, and the cost price continues to rise after the festival, so aniline has the power to act. Today, the price in Shandong is 11200-11400 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in East China is 11800 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic acetone market was generally upward, but the market was stable near the holiday, and the actual orders in some regions were reduced. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of domestic acetone market was 5850 yuan / ton on May 27 and 6250 yuan / ton on June 2, up 4.25% in the week. Before the holiday, the offer in East China market was about 6050 yuan / ton, that in South China was 6280 yuan / ton, and that in North China and the surrounding areas of Shandong was 6300 yuan / ton.

Trend chart of average acetone price in East China market

Driven by the continuous rise of crude oil at the raw material end, the raw material pure benzene remains high, and the phenol ketone plant has been in a loss situation for a long time. In order to reverse this situation, the acetone in the phenol ketone plant has continuously raised the bill price for many times, accumulating around 300 yuan / ton. The plant’s rise has brought the market up, the operator’s mentality has been strongly supported, and the market offer has been pushed up.

The downstream MMA added new production units. After the first round of goods preparation before the festival, the trading atmosphere improved, which provided strong support for the upstream. However, with the price increase, the downstream goods preparation before the festival also basically ended. Near the holiday, some traders intend to ship with the intention of transferring profits. The bisphenol a market also experienced a narrow correction before the festival. After a sharp decline in the early stage, the participation of some intermediate traders increased, and many of them were willing to store goods at low prices. Further, the market inquiry increased, with an increase of 100-200 yuan / ton before the festival.

At present, the phenol ketone plant is still close to the profit and loss, and the enthusiasm for pushing up still exists. However, the operators in the field have a stable mentality, the offer remains firm, and they always pay attention to the trend of the plant. After the festival, it is the beginning of the month, and the downstream mainly digests contracts. The terminal has little enthusiasm for replenishment, and the trading volume may not be high. The business agency expects that the domestic acetone market will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range next week.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on June 2 was 5000 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Up 0.2% year on year.

WTI crude oil futures and Brent crude oil fell during the day, and the cost side was adjusted weakly. The external market of ethylene glycol has stabilized. Recently, the negotiated price of shipping and cargo has been around us $624 / ton, the MEG operating rate has declined slightly, the port inventory has remained high, the downstream market trading is light, and the production and sales of polyester market have not been significantly improved.

Forecast: the fundamentals did not show an obvious positive trend, and continued to fluctuate in a narrow range in the state of undervaluation.

Zinc price fell on June 1

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price fell on June 1, and the zinc market fell back. On June 1, the zinc price was 26172 yuan / ton, down 0.01% from 26174 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; On June 1, the zinc price fell back; Compared with 2021, the zinc price increased by 13.14% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis

Zinc ingot inventory in LME market decreased, registered warehouse receipts decreased, cancelled warehouse receipts decreased, supply growth in zinc market slowed down and demand growth increased; Downstream enterprises resumed production and work, more enterprises in the zinc industry chain started work, and the supply and demand of zinc market recovered. However, the supply and demand of zinc market has not yet recovered to the expected level, and the downward pressure of zinc market still has great upward momentum.

Aftermarket forecast

The recovery of supply and demand was not as good as expected, and the zinc price was expected to rise slightly in the future.

Trend of metallic magnesium in May

In May, the magnesium ingot Market rose first and then fell. The overall weakness was mainly downward. At the end of the month, it closed down steadily. As of May 31, the market tax included spot exchange was 31000 yuan / ton, down about 5000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, down 14.68%. At the beginning of the month, the metal magnesium started its upward trend. After the May Day holiday, some customers entered the market one after another. Although the market inquiries increased, there were still few high price transactions. Subsequently, the orchid charcoal rectification news stimulated the market. The price rose rapidly. The price rise again made the buyers and sellers cautious, and the quotation gradually returned to a rational state. In the middle and late ten days of the month, the magnesium market began to decline all the way. In view of the large differences in factory inventory and capital, the market quotation was seriously divided, and the mainstream price mainly fell until it remained at the 30000 yuan level.

Market analysis

Factory aspect

At this stage, the production level of magnesium plants is relatively normal. Under the premise of the lack of good news in the market, the mentality of magnesium manufacturers is empty. Different magnesium plants have different direct inventory and capital pressure. Small-scale enterprises often take the initiative to reduce prices, hoping to drive the transaction. However, large-scale magnesium enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices, which is not the reason for price concessions. Some magnesium plants choose not to offer prices and wait and see the market.

Raw material cost

Dolomite in Wutai Area is currently quoted at 180 yuan / ton. As the main raw material of magnesium ingot, the supply of dolomite is becoming more and more tense. At present, the time for the resumption of the mine is uncertain, or it will have a certain impact on the subsequent supply.

The spot price of raw ferrosilicon and coke was weak, and the market followed the downward trend. The price in the main production areas of Ningxia was 8700-8900 yuan / ton, and the average market price was 8755 yuan / ton. Ferrosilicon manufacturers began to avoid peak production due to profit contraction, and capacity replacement began in some areas, resulting in a downward trend in the start-up and output in May; The coke market has experienced four rounds of increase and decrease. As of the press release, the price of primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi is 3116 yuan / ton, and coke enterprises take the initiative to limit production by 1-30%; The overall operating rate of the downstream enterprises of Lancang carbon is low, and the transaction of some high priced resources is frustrated. The price drops slightly, and the decline of raw material prices weakens the cost support for magnesium ingots.

Aftermarket forecast

In May, the market was affected by the continued weakness of the demand market. On the contrary, the supply side showed a slow upward trend, and the market mentality was generally empty. On the news, Yulin Lancan’s rectification policy was delayed and lacked positive boost, and the magnesium ingot quotation continued to decline. As a result, the production profit is further squeezed. In addition, the current price is at the node of 30000 yuan, and the magnesium plant is willing to offer more. Whether it can stabilize depends on the subsequent recovery of demand.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (May 30):11280 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business club, on May 30, the market price of phosphoric acid was 11280 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a year-on-year increase of 92.27. At present, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus is high, the cost side is strongly supported, the overall focus of the phosphoric acid market has moved upward, the price increase range of enterprises’ offer is different, and the market transaction is tepid. At present, the price of raw yellow phosphorus is 38000-40000 yuan / ton, and the market price of thermal phosphoric acid is about 11000-12800 yuan / ton.

It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will remain stable in the short term.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price fell slightly this week, from 3265.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 3220.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.38%, an increase of 38.00% over the same period last year. On May 27, the urea commodity index was 149.77, the same as yesterday, down 1.68% from 152.33, the highest point in the cycle (May 15, 2022), and up 169.37% from 55.60, the lowest point on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient cost support, weak downstream demand and slightly lower urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea was quoted at 3350 yuan / ton this weekend, down 150 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea offered 3220 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea offered 3170 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 35 yuan / ton compared with last weekend;

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, from 6814.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6640.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 2.55%, an increase of 90.08% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; Coal prices have fluctuated in a narrow range recently. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 10175.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 10100.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.74%.

In terms of demand, agricultural demand follows up on demand, while industrial demand is dominated by rigid demand. The wheat harvest is coming in the north, the agricultural demand is weakening, and some areas in the northeast and South purchase on demand. The wait-and-see atmosphere of compound fertilizer and rubber plate factories towards high priced urea is becoming stronger, the procurement slows down, the price of melamine drops slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is weakened. From the perspective of supply, the daily output of urea this week was about 150000-160000 tons, with a slight decline, and the urea inventory was at a low level.

Urea prices fell slightly in the future

In the first ten days of June, the domestic urea market fell slightly, mainly due to consolidation. Urea analysts of business agency believe that the upstream market of urea fell slightly and the cost support weakened. Agricultural demand is general, industrial demand is weakened, and downstream customers have a strong wait-and-see attitude towards high priced urea. In June, Xiaguan fertilizer is about to enter the market. The mentality of the industry is empty, and the urea market is dominated by a small shock and decline in the future.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on May 26 was 4966.67 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Year on year decrease of 1.32%.

Ethylene glycol futures recovered their lost ground today, and the external market rose slightly in the afternoon. Recently, the negotiated price of cargo is around us $600 / ton. As of May 26, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1184500 tons, a decrease of 2800 tons or 0.24% compared with last Thursday, an increase of 6700 tons or 0.57% compared with Monday. The port delivery volume was slow, and the inventory level remained high in the short term. The atmosphere of real orders in the market is general, and the production and sales of polyester market are light. Therefore, despite the decline of ethylene glycol operating rate, the contradiction between supply and demand still exists.

Forecast: interval shock.