On February 1, the price of silver soared, and the price of American Silver broke through $30 / oz, breaking through the high level in early 2020; Ag (T + D) jumped at the opening price of 5573 yuan / g, and closed at 5476 yuan / g at night. After the weekend trading was suspended, the daily price rose violently on February 1, with the highest price of 5896 yuan / g, and the closing price of 5892 yuan / g, closing up 10.34%; silver 2106, the main futures contract of silver, jumped at the opening price of 5654 yuan / g, The night trading closed at 5564 yuan / g. after the weekend trading was suspended, the day trading rose violently on February 1, with the highest price of 5949 yuan / g. the closing price was 5939 yuan / g, up 9.27%.

There is still room for domestic silver spot price to reach its high level in 2020

According to the data of business news agency, on February 1, 2021, the morning average price of silver market was 5716.33 yuan / kg, which was 10.40% higher than the morning average price of 5177.67 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (January 28), and 14.76% lower than the peak price of silver spot market in 2020 (8.11), which was 6708.33 yuan / kg.

Shanghai Gold Exchange centralized pricing Shanghai silver morning and afternoon price trend is as follows:

Silver is more speculative

On the 28th, silver began to rise, and gold price was relatively sluggish. Market rumors suggest that recently, US retail investors began to turn their money to silver. Although there is no factual basis, it can be seen from the figure below that the fluctuation range of silver price is much higher than that of gold, the twin brother of its trend. Fortunately, this trend shows incisively and vividly in the middle of March and the first ten days of August 2020, and the speculative property of silver, which has gone up and down sharply, is stronger.

The data of Shanghai Gold Exchange also reflects that the high amplitude of silver’s sharp rise and fall in 2020 will attract more investors (Speculators).

According to the data of Shanghai gold exchange, in 2020, the turnover of silver was 20.75 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 186.19%, and the turnover was 4.2147 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 136.78%; the turnover of gold was 22.55 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.91%, and the turnover was 58700 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.44%.

Silver in the outer wall breaks through the peak in 2020

Within a day, slnc broke through US $30 / oz, reaching the highest of US $30.35/oz, breaking through the high price in early 2020.

It is reported that retail investors in reddit forum Wall Street bets called for “launching the biggest silver strike in history”.

The huge profits and international popularity gained by “American retail investors” in the stock market have greatly increased the attention of speculative funds to silver products. In addition, unlike gold, the precious metal, which has been at a historical high for nearly 10 years, the price of silver reached a high of US $49.50/oz in April 2011, creating a powerful price range chip for “American retail investors”.

If the price of internal market keeps rising, there is still room

In August 2020, the price of domestic silver rose more sharply. At present, the price is mainly driven by the external market, with a slight lag, and the increase is relatively weak. If the price of silver in the internal market keeps rising, the rising space is more considerable. Of course, the current rise is still within the fundamentals. If, like the stock market operated by retail investors in the United States, it is divorced from the actual supply and demand, and completely enters the stage of Bo Sha, it is unknown that it will crash and jump short quickly. On the news side, the price of silver soared on the first day. The Thai Futures Exchange (tfex) announced the suspension of trading of silver online futures, while India reduced the tariff on gold and silver to 7.5%. Ye Jianjun, an analyst at business news agency, predicts that the domestic silver price will follow the external market in the near future, and the range will be slightly lower than the external market.

Precious metals data at a glance

In January, the price trend of precious metals was weak as a whole, silver stabilized at the end of the month, and the upward attack was obvious, with great uncertainty in the future. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve’s policy is within expectations, the dollar index is relatively high, and precious metals are slightly under pressure; on the other hand, retail investors are fanatical trading expectations, and the market has entered a period of hoodwinking.

Summary of recent data:

In 2020, the annual global gold demand (excluding OTC trading) was 3759.6 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14%, which was lower than 4000 tons for the first time since 2009. In 2020, the inflow of gold ETF reached a record high, totaling 877.1 tons (about US $47.9 billion), and the global asset management scale reached 3, In 2020, the total demand for gold bars and gold coins will be 896.1 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%; in 2020, the total global demand for gold ornaments will be 1411.6 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 34%; in 2020, the total demand of central banks will be 273 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 59%; in 2020, the total demand for science and technology will be 301.9 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%; in 2020, the total global supply of gold will be 4633 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4%; in 2020, the total amount of gold recovery will be 1, 297.4 tons, a slight increase of 1% year on year.

According to the latest statistics of the China Gold Association, in 2020, the domestic raw material gold output was 365.34 tons, 14.88 tons less than the same period in 2019, a year-on-year decrease of 3.91%. Among them, 301.69 tons of gold mineral gold and 63.65 tons of non-ferrous by-product gold were completed.

In 2020, the actual consumption of gold in China will be 820.98 tons, down 18.13% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them: 490.58 tons of gold jewelry, a year-on-year decrease of 27.45%; 246.59 tons of gold bars and coins, a year-on-year increase of 9.21%; 83.81 tons of industrial and other gold, a year-on-year decrease of 16.81%.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency, the market price of maleic anhydride in China fell this week. As of January 29, the average price of maleic anhydride by hydrogenation of benzene remained around 8333.33 yuan / ton, down 1.19% from the beginning of the week and up 2.88% from the same period last month.

On January 29, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 78.50, down 1.57 points from yesterday, down 36.52% from the highest point of 123.67 points in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and up 53.38% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic phthalic maleic anhydride market started low load operation. Under the influence of environmental protection and Spring Festival factors, the downstream unsaturated resin entered the shutdown period, the operating rate went down, the resin market was weak and wait-and-see, and just needed procurement was the main factor. As of the 29th, the amount of solid anhydride in Shandong is about 7800 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu is about 8200 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi is about 7700 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is about 7900 yuan / ton, and that in South China is about 8200 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, according to the data of business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene declined slightly this week. On the 25th, the average price of pure benzene was 4484 yuan / ton; on the 29th, the average price of pure benzene was 4456 yuan / ton, down 28 yuan / ton or 0.62% from last week. This week, the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong remained stable, at 4075 yuan / ton. N-butane prices stopped falling and recovered.

3、 Future forecast

Business community maleic anhydride product analysts believe that at present, the maleic anhydride market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the downstream just need to purchase, the terminal demand is low, the wait-and-see mood is strong, and affected by the epidemic, the logistics is limited, and the price is expected to be sorted out in a short time.

Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price of cobalt rose sharply in January 2020, and the market of cobalt recovered to rise in the new year. As of January 30, the cobalt price was 324666.66 yuan / ton, up 19.07% from 272666.66 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (January 1); the new year’s Cobalt market ushered in a sharp rise, the biggest increase since March 2017.

Trend of cobalt price in LME Market

It can be seen from the LME cobalt price trend chart that the LME cobalt price rose sharply in January. After a year’s fluctuation adjustment of cobalt price in 2020, the global cobalt market recovers in the new year, and the international cobalt price re welcomes the surge. The rise of international cobalt price is good for the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt market has increased momentum.

Domestic mobile phone production and sales data

According to the data released by China Academy of information technology, in December 2020, the total shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 26.595 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%; from January to December, the total shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 308 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.8%. In December 2020, the domestic market 5g mobile phone shipment was 18.2 million, accounting for 68.4% of the mobile phone shipment in the same period. According to data released by IDC, mobile phone shipments in the fourth quarter of 2020 reached 385.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16 million units. In December, the sales of mobile phones declined, but the year-on-year decline was reduced. The decline of mobile phone market shipment slowed down, and the mobile phone market showed an upward trend. The rising global mobile phone shipment in the fourth quarter eased the tension in the mobile phone market. 5g mobile phones are gradually gaining strength, and the mobile phone market may usher in a wave of replacement. 5g mobile phones will become a new growth point in the market. However, the sales of mobile phones in the whole 20 years still have a large decline compared with that in the 19 years, and the mobile phone market will be in a better shape The market has limited support for the cobalt market. With the outbreak of 5g mobile phones, the mobile phone market is expected to rise in 2021, and the demand for cobalt is expected to rise sharply, which is more favorable for the cobalt market.

Domestic new energy vehicle market

According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, in December, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 235000 and 248000 respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 55.7% and 49.5% respectively. In 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will be 1.366 million and 1.367 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% and 10.9% respectively. The annual market is better than expected. The rise of new energy automobile industry in the weak environment of automobile industry reflects the prospect of new energy automobile industry, and also indicates that new energy automobile has entered an outbreak period. New energy automobile is expected to enter a surge period in the 21st year. China Automobile Association predicts that the sales volume of new energy automobile will increase by 40% in 2021. The explosion of new energy vehicle industry and the surge of demand in cobalt market are favorable to the cobalt market, and the rising power of cobalt price is increased.

Global new energy vehicle market

According to EV volumz, a global electric vehicle research company, in December 2020, the global sales volume of electric vehicles was 590000, an increase of 40% on a month on month basis. In 2020, the global sales of electric vehicles will be 3.24 million, up 43% year on year. The global sales of new energy vehicles soared, which was good for the global cobalt market, with sufficient support for the rise of cobalt price.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that since the new year, the cobalt market seems to be getting “stimulant”, the cobalt price has soared, and the cobalt market is booming again. But can the cobalt market last long, and what’s the space for the cobalt price to rise in the future? It still deserves our attention. From the demand side, there are signs of recovery in the mobile phone market, which is good for the cobalt market, but the overall production and sales of the mobile phone market are still slightly insufficient, with Limited good for the cobalt market, and insufficient power for the cobalt price to rise in the future; with the soaring demand for new energy vehicles, there is sufficient power for the cobalt market to rise, but the continuous growth of the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the second half of 2020 does not bring a corresponding rise to the cobalt price It remains to be seen whether the price rise is a retaliatory rise or a surge in demand. The recovery of the global cobalt market also plays a stimulating role in the domestic cobalt market, which is generally good, but it still needs time to test the global cobalt Market’s recovery of 19 years. On the whole, there is sufficient momentum for the rise of cobalt market, and there is still room for the rise of cobalt price in the future, but the demand of cobalt market is still difficult to support the continuous rise of cobalt price. It is expected that the rise of cobalt price in the future will slow down, and the cobalt price will rise slowly in February.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, affected by the shortage of acetic acid, the market of acetic anhydride rose sharply in January, and the price of acetic anhydride rose sharply. As of January 30, the price of acetic anhydride was 8133.33 yuan / ton, up 9.91% from 7400.00 yuan / ton in early January. The price of acetic anhydride rose for four consecutive months.

Acetic acid price trend

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid, the price of acetic acid rose sharply in January, and the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride rose. Because the acetic acid enterprises stop to reduce the load more, the operating rate of acetic acid is low, the supply of acetic acid is insufficient, the shortage of acetic acid is increasing, the rising power of acetic acid is increasing, the cost of acetic anhydride is rising, and the rising power of acetic anhydride is increasing.

Methanol price trend

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart that the methanol price fluctuated and adjusted in January, the overall methanol price fell slightly, the methanol price of acetic anhydride raw material was stable, the acetic anhydride cost was stable, and the power of acetic anhydride rising was limited.

Monthly rise and fall of acetic anhydride price

From the monthly K-bar chart of acetic anhydride price, it can be seen that the price of acetic anhydride has increased for four consecutive months since October 2020. Affected by the decline of equipment start-up of acetic anhydride enterprises and the rise of raw material costs, the price of acetic anhydride has been rising continuously since October 2020, and the price of acetic anhydride remains high.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an acetic anhydride data analyst at business news agency, believes that the sharp rise in acetic acid prices has driven the rise in acetic anhydride prices. However, with the stable equipment start-up of acetic acid enterprises, the shortage of acetic acid has been alleviated. With the loss of support, the price of acetic acid is expected to stabilize or fall in the future, the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride is declining, and the price of acetic anhydride is out of support. Moreover, with the coming of the new year, the number of acetic anhydride downstream enterprises is increasing, the downstream customers are more resistant to high price acetic anhydride, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rising is weakened. Generally speaking, the cost support of acetic anhydride in the future is insufficient, the demand support is declining, the price of acetic anhydride is weak and stable before the year, and acetic anhydride may face retaliatory growth after the year.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business association, the plasticizer DOP market recovered this week, and the price of DOP rose slightly. As of January 30, the DOP price was 9550.00 yuan / ton, up 1.60% from 9400.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Upstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the price trend chart of isooctanol that the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week, the transaction of isooctanol was good, the price was firm, the overall market of isooctanol was firm, the cost of DOP raw materials fluctuated and rose, the rising power of DOP increased, and the downward pressure weakened.

It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride that the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly this week, the market of phthalic anhydride recovered, the cost of raw material phthalic anhydride of DOP rose, the downward pressure of DOP weakened, and the upward momentum increased.

Downstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the PVC price trend chart that this week, PVC prices rose, PVC market recovered, DOP demand rose, DOP downstream market recovered, plasticizer DOP market increased.

Market summary and future expectation

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business news agency, believes that this week, DOP raw material ISO octanol and phthalic anhydride prices fluctuated, DOP raw material costs rose, DOP price rising momentum increased; downstream PVC market recovered, DOP demand increased, DOP rising momentum increased. DOP enterprises started at a low level, and the operating rate was maintained at about 60%. Generally speaking, the DOP cost rises, the DOP rising power increases, the downstream market rises, and the DOP market warms up. DOP prices are expected to rise in the future. With the increase of DOP enterprises, DOP prices tend to stabilize.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the quotation of o-benzene fell in January, while the domestic market of o-benzene fell. With the recovery of upstream and downstream market, the price of o-benzene may hit the bottom and rebound. As of January 30, Sinopec’s price of o-xylene was 4700.00 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton or 6.00% compared with 2000 yuan / ton of o-xylene at the beginning of the month (January 1).

Upstream market of o-benzene

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene that the price of mixed xylene rose sharply in January, with an increase of 9.90%. The price of mixed xylene continued to rise, the cost of o-benzene rose, the support for the rise of o-benzene was obvious, and the power of o-benzene rise increased.

Trend of downstream products

From the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride, it can be seen that the price of phthalic anhydride first fell and then rose in January. Although the price of phthalic anhydride still fell slightly, the overall market of phthalic anhydride rebounded from the bottom, the market of phthalic anhydride rebounded at the end of the month, the market of o-benzene improved, and the price of o-benzene increased.

Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst of business news agency, believes that in January, the price of mixed xylene continued to rise, the cost of o-xylene increased, and the price of o-xylene fell due to the drop of phthalic anhydride price, but the pressure of o-xylene rising continued to increase; at the end of the month, the price of phthalic anhydride rebounded, the demand of o-xylene rose, the rising power of o-xylene was released, and the rising power of o-xylene increased. It is expected that o-xylene bottomed out and rebounded, and the rise in price.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of January 28, the comprehensive price of PC market was 19833.33 yuan / ton, the PC market was stable and rising, the overall market was stable, the purchasing atmosphere was general, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong.

The domestic PC market negotiation center is stable, the overall trend is stable, the price is firm, the downstream just need to take orders, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. At present, the domestic spot supply is normal, the enterprise operating rate is normal, and the inventory is normal. At present, the shipment is smooth, and near the Spring Festival, the willingness of traders to prepare goods is general, and there is no obvious improvement

The upstream bisphenol a market as a whole was stable and on the upper side, the supply of spot goods was tight, the focus of market negotiation was stable, and the reference negotiation was around 17100-17200 yuan / ton.

On January 27, the rubber and plastic index was 710 points, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 33.02% compared with 1060 points (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 34.47% compared with 528 points, the lowest point on April 6, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business community PC analysts believe: it is expected that the PC market will be stable in the short term. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business PC analysts. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.)

Price list of aluminum ingots

According to the data of business news agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on January 27 was 14910 yuan / ton, down 5.19% from 15726.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (January 1).

The recent pressure on aluminum price is mainly based on two factors

1. The price of aluminum is high in the early stage, the profit of aluminum plant is high, and the output of aluminum moves up

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2020, the domestic aluminum production accumulated to 37.08 million tons, exceeding the record high of 35.802 million tons set in 2018, setting the highest annual record. In December 2020, the primary aluminum production was 3.27 million tons, up 2.8% on a month on month basis. It exceeded the record high of 35.802 million tons set in 2018.

In the early stage, the price of aluminum was high, the profit of aluminum plant was high, and the operating rate moved up.

2. Aluminum ingots are slightly accumulated in the off-season of aluminum consumption

At present, as the end of the year is approaching the low season of aluminum consumption, the demand of the downstream is increasing, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 688000 tons, up from 600000 tons in early December.

Near the end of the year, some aluminum profile enterprises have holidays ahead of time, and the aluminum price goes down horizontally, so there is little demand for stock preparation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of January 26, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 14000 yuan / ton, down 2.33% from 14333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 22.94% from the same period last year.

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business community, as of January 26, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 19166.67 yuan / ton, up from 17500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. It was up 12.38% in the month and down 15.71% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

R22, the price of refrigerant R22 fell this month, and the market was weak. Due to the opening of new R22 quota in 2021 and the impact of recent epidemic in Hebei Province, the raw material chloroform enterprises reduced their prices to prevent excessive warehouse pressure in the future, resulting in the gradual decline of cost support, which made R22 enterprises unable to support the market and the price fell. Moreover, the demand side continued to be weak, and the export and domestic sales performance was average. Near the end of the year, the downstream had a holiday ahead of time, the market demand gradually stagnated, and the price of refrigerant R22 fell steadily this month. At present, the market quotation of R22 is mostly in the range of 14000-15000 yuan / ton, the transaction price is low, the enterprises do not receive many orders, the short-term price is stable, and there is a downward expectation in the future.

R134a, refrigerant R134a price up this month, the market is strong. Due to the overhaul of some hydrofluoric acid plants, the spot supply on the site was slightly tight. The price continued to rise after new year’s day, 5.67% higher than the price of 9530 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw materials was tight and the refrigerant manufacturers reduced the load, which supported the price rise of R134a. At present, the demand is not good, downstream enterprises stop work for holidays, traders withdraw from the market and wait-and-see, and logistics in some areas is out of service. At present, the market quotation of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 19000-22000 yuan / ton, with high price, but the transaction atmosphere is general, and the short-term price is stable, so it is not suitable to go down.

Hydrofluoric acid as raw material. On January 26, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 10000-10500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price trend of on-site merchants increased slightly. Domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers had a general operating rate, and the supply of on-site goods was slightly tight. Affected by the rising price of fluorite, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry was general, and on-demand purchase was the main factor. It is expected that the on-site price will increase slightly in the later stage High.

Trichloromethane, affected by the poor demand of downstream market recently, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong continued to fall, and the trade in the industry was light. Although it was near the Spring Festival holiday, the intention of downstream goods preparation was flat, and the inventory of trichloromethane production enterprises had accumulated to a certain extent, so they were forced to make profits for shipment. At present, the price of Shandong is about 2640-2720 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen is about 3600 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu is about 3700 yuan / ton. At present, there are many negative factors in the chloroform market. It will take time for the demand side to return to normal. The situation of oversupply in the industry is obvious. It is expected that the price of chloroform will be weak and stable in a short time.

3、 Future forecast

According to refrigerant analysts of business news agency, at present, raw materials are rising, supply is tight, and cost support is strong. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises have holidays one after another, and demand is gradually stagnant. The main orders are supplied by enterprises, and the market tends to be stable, with little fluctuation before the year. It is expected that the market of refrigerant will be stable in the short term, and will fluctuate with the price of raw materials in the future.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the TDI market price was stable this week. The average price of the East China market at the weekend was 12533.33 yuan / ton, down 1.05% compared with 12666.67 yuan / ton last weekend, and up 7.12% compared with the same period last year.

This week, the domestic TDI market is deadlocked and wait-and-see. The atmosphere in the market is quiet. At the beginning of the week, the market is weak. The dealer’s quotation is lower than last week. Later, the industry mostly wait-and-see, and the price trend runs smoothly. As of the 24th, the domestic TDI offer in East China market is 12400-12500 yuan / ton, and the Shanghai offer is 12500-12600 yuan / ton.

The market of toluene continued to rise. At the initial stage, the market was very strong, and the focus of negotiation was pushed up, with an increase of 3.26% in the week. As of the 24th, the domestic average price was 4037.5 yuan / ton, and the price fell near the weekend. Affected by the public health incident, some downstream terminal factories in China may have holidays ahead of time, and the market demand for toluene was weak.

At present, the supplier’s equipment is running smoothly, the offer is relatively high and the intention of low price shipment is not high. On the other hand, affected by public health events, the holiday time of downstream terminals may be ahead of schedule. The operators are cautious, mainly purchase on demand, and the intention of buying is weak. In terms of polyether market, the lower reaches hold a wait-and-see attitude, the industry mainly purchases on demand, the buying enthusiasm is general, and the purchase of TDI is limited.

According to TDI data analyst of business club, at present, the domestic TDI market is in a stalemate, and the atmosphere in the market is quiet. In addition, the upstream and downstream companies may enter the holiday ahead of time, so the demand is weak, and the trading in the market is cold. In the later stage, the TDI market continues to consolidate temporarily, and pay attention to the downstream market news.