This week, with increased supply and continued weak demand, the acrylonitrile market continues to decline. As of July 3rd, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 10000-10100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300-400 yuan/ton compared to last week’s 10300-10500 yuan/ton; The short distance delivery to the Shandong market is 9850-9950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton compared to last week’s 10100-10200 yuan/ton.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Market Overview: During the week, the Ruhr and Sinochem Quanzhou facilities were successfully restarted, with increased supply and continued weak demand. The downstream acrylic fiber industry saw a further decline in production, insufficient spot buying, and a decline in market negotiations. In addition, export negotiation prices also fell. Under weak fundamentals, major suppliers’ quotations were overall lowered. However, the price of raw material propylene rose sharply, and the production profit of acrylonitrile was compressed again, which to some extent suppressed the market decline.
Supply side:
During the week, the acrylonitrile plant started and stopped simultaneously, and the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached around 75%, resulting in an overall increase in supply. According to statistics, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories this week (June 26th July 2nd) was 74.43%, an increase of 5.02% compared to the previous week; The weekly output is about 86800 tons, an increase of 5800 tons from the previous week. The buying trend maintains the pace of rigid demand, and the inventory of enterprises also shows uneven fluctuations, but overall it is still not high. According to statistics, as of July 1st, the total inventory was about 44000 tons, unchanged from last week.
Demand side:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has fluctuated, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate was 58.5%, an increase of 0.4% compared to last week; Jilin Chemical Fiber’s subsidiary Jimeng Acrylic Fiber Co., Ltd. has reduced the load of its 155000 ton acrylic fiber plant to around 70% for production; The production of 150000 tons of acrylic fiber in Huarong spinning plant has decreased to around 50%, and the capacity utilization rate of the acrylic fiber industry is 72.90%, which is 10.37% higher than last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 52.87%, an increase of 0.84% compared to last week. Overall, there has been an increase in demand.
Cost aspect:
The price of propylene, a raw material, has risen on a weekly basis, leading to a decline in profits due to the decrease in acrylonitrile prices. According to statistics, as of July 3rd, the mainstream closing price of Shandong propylene market was based on 7570-7700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 7635 yuan/ton, an increase of 725 yuan/ton from the average price of 6910 yuan/ton last weekend. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 9731 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of -0.24%. The average profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was 649 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 372 yuan/ton.
In the later stage forecast, the inventory of major production enterprises remains low, but downstream demand continues to be weak, spot buying is insufficient, and demand for essential goods has also decreased. Market negotiations have declined, and coupled with lower export negotiation prices, the overall fundamentals are weak. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to weaken in the short term, but the price of raw material propylene will also rise, which will to some extent suppress the market decline.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |