In May 2026, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market fluctuated at a low level, with an average price of 16525 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16490 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of 0.21%.

On May 28th, the Business Society Lead Index was 100.45, a decrease of 0.76 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.04% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and an increase of 34.60% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
The lead price trend in May can be described as “having a top and a bottom”, with prices fluctuating repeatedly within a narrow range, and finally closing almost flat throughout the month. This pattern reflects the core contradiction of the current lead market, which is “strong cost support and sustained demand drag”.
The trend of primary lead and recycled lead on the supply side shows significant differentiation
In terms of primary lead, the maintenance of refineries in major production areas such as Henan, Hunan, and Yunnan was concentrated in the early stage, and the weekly operating rate briefly hit the bottom. As the maintenance gradually ended, the operating rate slightly rebounded in the latter half of the year, and the overall supply remained stable with an increase. However, the processing fee for lead concentrate continues to be at a historical low – the mainstream quotation for imported TC is still negative, and domestic TC is also maintained in an extremely low range. The continuous tight supply of mineral resources restricts the willingness of refineries to significantly increase production, and the increment of primary lead is limited.
The situation in the field of recycled lead is even more severe: the industry continues to suffer losses in smelting, with large losses for small and medium-sized enterprises. Large scale shutdowns and maintenance of small and medium-sized refineries in East China, Central China, and North China have led to a continuous decline in operating rates. However, due to the concentrated resumption of production by previously suspended enterprises, the supply of finished products has increased, and the regenerated refined lead has shifted from premium to premium. The cost side constitutes the strongest “safety cushion” for lead prices: lead concentrate spot TC has been running at a low level for a long time, and the strong ore price has built a solid bottom support for primary lead; The recycling price of waste batteries remains stable, and under the continuous expansion of losses in recycled lead, refineries have a strong willingness to raise prices, effectively suppressing the potential for further decline in Shanghai lead prices.
The upward price constraint on the demand side
The second quarter coincided with the traditional off-season for lead-acid battery consumption, with continued weak demand for electric vehicle replacement and low-speed vehicle orders. The limited increase in energy storage and industrial backup batteries posed the biggest constraint on the upward trend of lead prices. Downstream lead storage enterprises only purchase according to long-term contract requirements, actively replenish inventory, and have light individual transactions, making it difficult to drive up lead prices. However, the joint price increase of leading electric vehicle companies such as Yadea has pushed the price center of lead-acid batteries upward, and the transmission of price increases in the industrial chain is smooth, which may to some extent boost downstream willingness to replenish inventory and bring marginal improvement expectations to the demand side.
Inventory end
Social inventory is still at a relatively high level in recent years, and global inventory pressure has not fully eased.
comprehensive summary
In the short term, the pattern of weak supply and demand is expected to continue – the loss reduction of recycled lead and the stable increase of primary lead will form a hedge, the low season of terminal consumption and the transmission of battery price increases will form a game, and the strong cost and accumulated inventory pressure will compete with each other. Lead prices are likely to continue to fluctuate narrowly within the range of 16400-16800 yuan/ton. The lead market is currently in a patient game. The downward space is supported by costs, while the upward space is dominated by demand – when terminal consumption truly recovers may be the key signal for lead prices to break through the volatile box.