1、 Market Overview: With a monthly increase of over 5%, there is a strong bullish sentiment
As of July 2, 2026, the benchmark price of propylene is reported at 7811.00 yuan/ton. Compared with 7411.00 yuan/ton in early July (June 30th), the price continued to rise during the week, with a cumulative increase of 5.40% for the month.
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From the recent price trend, the market shows a strong trend of “bottoming out, rebounding, and accelerating upward”:
June 25-26: The market experienced a brief pullback, with prices dropping to around 6851 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 3.41%.
June 27-28: Prices stabilized at a low level, with a continuous increase or decrease of 0.00% for two consecutive days, building a solid bottom support platform.
From June 29th to July 1st: With the intervention of buying, prices began to rise continuously. Starting from 7211 yuan/ton, the daily increase was as high as 5.25% at one point, and then although there were slight fluctuations, the focus continued to shift upwards, eventually breaking through the 7800 yuan/ton mark and establishing a short-term upward trend.
2、 Technical Analysis of Business Treasure Spot Pass
Based on the analysis of the moving average chart and position indicators, the current technical signal for propylene is relatively strong
1. Mean Square Shape
The 20 day moving average continues to decline, and the medium-term bearish trend remains unchanged; The 10 day moving average first fell and then turned upwards, gradually approaching the 20 day moving average. The negative moving average continued to narrow, and the downward momentum was exhausted. The short-term upward signal is approaching.
2. Price in 5th tier positions
This “short high long low” position structure usually means that the market is in the early to mid stage of rebound or reversal. Although there is some profit taking pressure in the short term (10 day high), in the medium to long term, there is still significant room for recovery above, and it has not reached the long-term top resistance zone.
3、 Fundamental driven: Downstream products generally rise, forming positive feedback
The strengthening of the propylene market this week is not an isolated phenomenon, but has received strong support from downstream industrial chains:
Polypropylene (PP): As the largest downstream consumer of propylene, PP (brushed) performs excellently. The benchmark price on July 2nd was 7940.00 yuan/ton, with a 4.93% increase during the month. The firm price of PP directly improved the profit expectations of propylene production enterprises and stimulated the increase in ex factory prices.
Epoxy propane: Another important downstream epoxy propane price has also moderately increased to 7800.00 yuan/ton (+1.30%).
The price increase of downstream products has eased the pressure of cost transmission, which has increased the acceptance of high priced propylene by downstream factories, and the purchasing enthusiasm is still acceptable. The positive feedback mechanism of “product price increase driving raw material price increase” is the core driving force for propylene prices to break through the previous fluctuation range and achieve a growth rate of over 5% this week.
4、 Future prospects
Overall, the propylene market is currently in a benign channel where both quantity and price are rising. On a technical level, the bullish alignment of the moving average system supports prices to continue their inertial upward trend; Fundamentally, the release of downstream demand provides solid support.
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