1、 This week’s spot market trend
| Melamine |
This week, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society showed overall weak fluctuations. From June 24th to 29th, the price remained stable in the range of 6062.5 yuan/ton for a long time, with narrow horizontal fluctuations in the market and no significant fluctuations in price; Until June 30th, the market broke through and fell, with a daily price reduction of 12.5 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.21%. The spot benchmark price fell to 6050 yuan/ton, a new low in the stage.
From a monthly perspective, as of July 1st, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% compared to the beginning of last month (6125.00 yuan/ton). The upstream raw material urea weakened synchronously, with a benchmark price of 1813.75 yuan/ton on July 1st, a month on month decrease of 0.34%. The cost side support continued to loosen, laying the foundation for the weak operation of melamine this week.
fundamentals
1. Cost side: Upstream urea prices have weakened synchronously, with a slight decrease in urea prices this month. The marginal cost of melamine production has fallen, and the cost support for production enterprises has weakened. The resistance to lowering factory quotations has decreased, and the raw material side cannot provide price increase momentum, but continues to exert strong pressure on spot prices.
2. Supply and demand side: The spot price remained flat in the first half of this week, mainly due to the weak balance between market supply and demand. Factory inventory remained stable, downstream board and coating rigid demand procurement remained stable, and there were no concentrated high-volume orders; In the second half of the week, the price broke the level, reflecting the continuous weakening of terminal demand, the increasing wait-and-see sentiment in downstream markets, the slowing down of the pace of purchasing, and the slight increase in pressure on manufacturers to ship, resulting in passive price cuts to promote transactions.
Prediction of future market trends
Short term trend: The current moving average index has entered a negative expansion range, corresponding to a signal of accelerated decline; At the same time, although the price of melamine is at a low level throughout the entire cycle, there are no signals to stop the decline such as the turning of the moving average or the convergence of the moving average. The short-term weak operating pattern of melamine prices is difficult to reverse, and there is still a small downward exploration space.
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