In August, domestic PTA experienced a market trend of first fluctuating and then rising. At the beginning of the month, the benchmark spot price in East China was about 5945 yuan/ton. In the first half of the month, there was a long short game, and downstream textile demand was weak, resulting in a narrow range of price consolidation. In mid August, multiple PTA units underwent centralized maintenance, causing the industry’s operating rate to drop to a low point for the year. Spot goods sources tightened and inventory continued to be depleted; The rise in international crude oil and PX raw materials has brought cost support, and PTA has opened up a rising market. As of August 25th, the benchmark price of Business Society PTA was 6453 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.53% from the beginning of the month.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Looking ahead, in the short term, PTA will enter a stage of supply-demand rebalancing and high volatility, with significant weakening of unilateral upward momentum. The turning point on the supply side is clear. From the end of August to early September, multiple sets of pre maintenance main equipment will be restarted, and the industry’s operating rate will quickly rebound. The tight spot market pattern that has lasted for nearly a month will gradually ease, and the increase in supply will directly suppress the upward space of prices.
The cost side will show a trend of marginal weakening of support. International crude oil is subject to repeated geopolitical disturbances, maintaining a wide range of fluctuations and increasing uncertainty in volatility. As of August 24th, the settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $85.01 per barrel, and the settlement price of the November Brent crude oil futures contract was $90.54 per barrel. At the same time, PX maintenance facilities in Asia are gradually resuming production, and the expectation of loose raw material supply is heating up. The rise in PX prices is slowing down, and the cost support for PTA will gradually weaken in the future, making it difficult to continue driving price increases.
The demand side core focuses on the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” peak season cash flow. At present, downstream polyester production is maintaining a median level, enterprise inventory is within a reasonable range, and the market is expected to have sufficient stocking during peak seasons, forming a solid bottom support for PTA prices. However, there is still uncertainty in the terminal textile market, and the recovery pace of export and domestic orders is relatively slow. If the peak season terminal orders are not as expected, the recovery of polyester production and sales will be hindered, which will in turn drag down PTA demand and trigger price corrections.
Overall, analysts believe that there will be supply pressure on PTA in the short term, with peak season and cost support, mainly characterized by range fluctuations. Benefiting from the zero growth pattern of production capacity in the medium and long term, there will be no new production capacity added to the PTA industry in 2026, and the seven-year capacity expansion cycle will come to an end. The medium and long term supply pattern will continue to optimize, providing bottom support for prices and processing fees. The supply and demand structure continues to optimize, with strong price resilience. The follow-up focus will be on tracking the progress of equipment resumption, fluctuations in crude oil, production and sales of polyester, and the landing of terminal orders.
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