In September 2026, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market showed a trend of first rising and then falling, with an overall upward trend. The monthly market continued the previous recovery trend, and the overall price center steadily rose. The average price of antimony ingots in the market at the beginning of this month was 102000 yuan/ton. After a temporary surge in the market during the month, it slightly fell back and adjusted. The average price at the end of the month closed at 104250 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 2.21% during the month.
Looking at the market throughout the month, the core logic of the market revolves around the game of supply and demand. The tightening of raw material supply provides a solid bottom support for the market, driving prices to rise in stages. However, the insufficient release of downstream demand during peak seasons has led to pressure and fluctuations in the high price range, ultimately resulting in a slight increase.
Supply side:
In September, the overall supply of antimony ingots in China remained tight, which became the core positive factor supporting the overall upward trend of antimony prices this month. The ban on the export of overseas antimony ore continues to take effect, significantly reducing the supplementary channels for domestic imported ore sources. Coupled with the continued strict control of domestic antimony mining quotas, the circulation of antimony concentrate in the market has always been in a tight balance. Affected by high raw material prices, domestic smelting enterprises are under pressure in terms of production costs and limited profit margins. The overall operating load remains low, and the spot supply of antimony ingots in the market has been reduced. At the same time, the industry’s social inventory has been at a low level after long-term consumption, and traders have a strong mentality of selling at low prices. The buffer space for spot circulation is insufficient, and the tight supply fundamentals throughout the month effectively support the price of antimony ingots, supporting the overall rise of the monthly market.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field. In September, we entered the traditional gold nine consumption cycle downstream of antimony, with demand support mainly coming from two major sectors: antimony trioxide and photovoltaic glass. However, the procurement pace in these two areas is differentiated, and the overall volume increase is relatively weak.
Antimony oxide: As the largest downstream of antimony ingots, antimony oxide has seen seasonal production in the traditional plastic and flame retardant product industries. The market price of antimony trioxide has risen in sync with antimony ingots, and there has been a stable flow of demand orders in the market. However, the continuous price increase of antimony ingots continues to squeeze the profits of flame retardant processing enterprises. Downstream factories avoid the risk of high prices and only maintain a small amount of replenishment according to demand. Large scale hoarding behavior is rare, and the driving force for antimony prices is limited.
Photovoltaics: As the core incremental track of antimony ingots, the photovoltaic glass sector has long had stable and rigid procurement demand, and the industry’s production has maintained normal operation, continuously consuming antimony ingot inventory to form a foundation for bottoming out. However, this month, the pace of bidding for photovoltaic terminal projects has slowed down, glass factory finished product inventory has accumulated, and enterprises have strictly controlled raw material procurement costs, only carrying out daily production needs to obtain goods, without carrying out pre holiday centralized replenishment. Both downstream markets lack sustained momentum to increase production, which directly leads to a lack of support and a pullback in antimony prices after a surge.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the domestic antimony ingot market will maintain a high volatility pattern, and it is difficult to realize the significant fluctuations in the market on one side. The current situation of tight balance on the supply side cannot be improved in the short term. The contraction of overseas mineral supply, strict control over domestic antimony mining, low inventory in the industry, and the reluctance of smelters to sell and raise prices continue to support the bottom market. The space for antimony prices to significantly decline is basically closed. The key to whether the subsequent prices can strengthen again depends on the pace of replenishing inventory in the downstream of antimony oxide and photovoltaics. If the end orders of the flame retardant industry are released in a concentrated manner, antimony oxide manufacturers increase raw material procurement, or photovoltaic glass enterprises enter a centralized stocking cycle, antimony ingot prices are expected to test the upper high again; If the two downstream markets continue to maintain sporadic purchases on demand and there is no concentrated increase in demand, the market situation will continue to narrow sideways. In the medium to long term, there are rigid constraints on the global supply of antimony raw materials, and the long-term expansion of the photovoltaic industry brings stable incremental demand. The central price of antimony ingots in the market still has a long-term trend of gradually rising.
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