As of September 24, 2026, the gold spot market price was 926.57 yuan/gram, a decrease of 3.50% yuan/gram from the gold spot market price of 960.20 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month.
On September 24th, the price of gold continued to decline, and in terms of spot trading:
On September 24, 2026, the benchmark price of Shanghai Gold Exchange in the afternoon session was 924.45 yuan/gram, down 3.82 yuan/gram from the earlier benchmark price of 928.27 yuan/gram; Compared to the benchmark price of 935.50 yuan/gram in the afternoon session of the previous trading day, it decreased by 11.05 yuan/gram.
Reasons for the downward movement of precious metal prices in September
1. The Federal Reserve’s policy expectation shifts towards an increase in real interest rates
The resilience of August CPI, PPI, and non farm payroll data in the United States exceeded expectations, and inflation fell short of expectations; Officials at the Jackson Hole annual meeting are hawkish, and the market has significantly lowered expectations for interest rate cuts, even pricing a 25bp rate hike in September. The nominal yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds has exceeded 5%, and the real interest rate has significantly risen.
Gold is an interest free asset, and an increase in real interest rates means an increase in the opportunity cost of holding gold, which directly suppresses valuation;
The US dollar index strengthened synchronously, causing gold and silver priced in US dollars to become more expensive for overseas buyers, triggering long positions to be reduced.
In September, the Federal Reserve implemented a rate hike followed by a hawkish dot matrix, indicating that high interest rates will be maintained for a longer period of time. It is expected that after the complete implementation, precious metals will be further under pressure.
2. In the early stage, the geopolitical hedging premium was concentrated and sold back
The significant increase in gold prices in August was largely due to the safe haven premium caused by the Middle East conflict; In September, the United States and Iran released signals of easing negotiations, and there were no substantial shipping blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, and the conflict did not escalate further.
Withdrawing safe haven funds from gold and returning risky assets;
In the early stage of the game, speculative long positions were concentrated to close out geopolitical risks, amplifying the magnitude of the pullback (which is the same macro mainline as the disappearance of the geopolitical premium of ethylene glycol).
3. At the financial level: ETFs and futures long positions reduce positions, leading to a downward trend
Global gold ETFs have shifted from continuous inflows to net outflows of funds;
COMEX futures speculation saw a significant reduction in long positions at high levels, triggering a large number of stop loss orders and accelerating price declines.
4. Silver has experienced a significant decline compared to gold
Silver combines both precious metal and industrial properties, and is under additional pressure in addition to macro bearish sentiment
(1) The global manufacturing industry is expected to be weak, and the demand for silver industry in the chemical, photovoltaic, and electronic sectors is expected to be lowered;
(2) Silver speculation accounts for a higher proportion, and its volatility is naturally greater than that of gold, resulting in a stronger downward trend under macro bearish conditions.
5. Physical demand side: high prices suppress consumer buying
After the gold price surged in August, consumption of gold and silver jewelry and retail gold bars remained cautious, and stocking up for Indian holidays was delayed, resulting in a lack of support for physical buying; Although the central bank continues to maintain net purchases, it is a slow variable that cannot withstand macroeconomic interest rate shocks in the short term.
Gold price forecast for the future
Short term volatility is weak: US Treasury real interest rates and the US dollar remain dominant, and without new Middle Eastern black swans, precious metals are likely to experience weak volatility; If US inflation falls again and expectations of interest rate cuts rebound, there will be a chance for a rebound.
The medium to long-term upward trend has not been disrupted: the central bank’s continued gold purchases are still the underlying support, and this round is more inclined towards a pullback in the bull market, not a trend reversal.
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