1、 Market Review
In the past week (August 19-25), the domestic PA66 market hit bottom and stabilized, with prices slightly rising from the previous low of 17833.33 yuan/ton. After a slight increase of 0.93% on August 21, spot prices remained stable at around 18000 yuan/ton, with limited price fluctuations during the week. From the perspective of cycle position indicators, the 10 day price position quickly rose to a high level, indicating a short-term bullish signal; The position of the 20-90 day cycle is still in the mid to low range, and the bottom of the mid to long term price has not completely detached.
1. Cost analysis
The upstream supply of adiponitrile is relatively loose, and there has been no significant increase in raw material prices. The cost support for PA66 production is weak, and there has been no strong cost pull. Upstream chemical raw materials such as pure benzene and adipic acid have fluctuated and consolidated, with no obvious negative or positive drivers on the cost side. The driving force for this week’s market rise is not from the increase in raw material prices, but more from the proactive quotation repair behavior of factories after spot oversold.
2. Supply and demand analysis
In terms of supply, the domestic PA66 industry has maintained a moderate level of production, and some equipment maintenance has been completed in the early stage. The supply of goods in the industry has steadily rebounded, and the overall pressure on spot inventory is still acceptable. After a round of price reductions and destocking in the early stage, manufacturers’ willingness to ship at low prices has weakened, and prices have rebounded.
From the demand side, downstream modified plastics, injection molding, and nylon spinning factories have a cautious pace of replenishing inventory. After a wave of low-priced stocking, downstream buyers showed weak willingness to chase after higher prices and mainly relied on on-demand procurement for essential needs. There was no large-scale centralized replenishment of inventory, and the follow-up to demand was limited. The upward trend lacked sustained downstream support in terms of volume. Therefore, after the price rebounded, it entered a period of horizontal stalemate.
2、 Future forecast
The short-term PA66 market may mainly fluctuate at a high level and experience a slight tug of war. Short term indicators have shown signs of a 10 day cycle of overselling, limiting their short-term rapid upward momentum; The medium to long term prices are still in the mid to low range of the year, with solid support from the bottom of costs and the previous low point, and there is not much room for a significant further decline. The overall market is likely to maintain a fluctuating range of 17800-18300 yuan/ton, waiting for further guidance from downstream demand for the “Golden Nine” project.
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