The PTA market in August showed an overall upward trend, with a price of 5945 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month in East China, up 6.02% from 6303 yuan/ton at the end of the month. In August, the domestic PTA market experienced a structural upward trend, driven by a significant contraction in the supply side and cost support from geopolitical disturbances in crude oil. However, overall terminal demand was weak, indicating a typical supply driven market rather than a significant rebound in terminal consumption.

The overall market shows obvious stage differentiation. In early August, the PTA market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations, with downstream textile terminal orders continuing to be weak in the off-season. The overall market demand was insufficient, and polyester factories mainly replenished their inventory for essential needs, lacking centralized replenishment actions. Market trading sentiment was flat, and price fluctuations were limited. In mid August, the market logic completely reversed, and multiple large-scale PTA main units in China entered a centralized maintenance cycle. The industry’s operating rate quickly fell to a low of around 63% for the year. The supply of goods in the spot market has significantly tightened, enterprise inventories continue to deplete, and social inventories have fallen to low levels, highlighting the tight spot market pattern. At the same time, international crude oil is subject to strong fluctuations due to the geopolitical situation, and upstream PX raw material prices are rising synchronously. Under the dual positive resonance, PTA prices have entered a significant upward trend, with significant monthly increases.
Looking ahead to the future, the long short game in the PTA market will intensify in September, and the market may shift from a unilateral rise to a high-level oscillation. The pressure on the supply side is gradually becoming apparent. From the end of August to early September, multiple sets of main equipment that had undergone early maintenance were restarted and put into operation, and the industry’s operating rate quickly rebounded. The tight spot market pattern that had lasted for nearly a month is gradually easing, and the increase in market supply will directly suppress the further upward space of PTA prices.
The marginal weakening of cost side support has led to significant fluctuations in international crude oil prices due to geopolitical disturbances, resulting in high market uncertainty. At the same time, PX maintenance facilities are gradually resuming production, and the supply and demand of raw materials are becoming more relaxed, weakening the cost support for PTA. Subsequently, prices will follow more fluctuations in the crude oil pulse market.
The demand side remains the core variable of the market, and the market has officially entered the traditional “golden nine” consumption peak season, but there is significant uncertainty in the recovery of terminal textile orders. In addition, the profits of the polyester industry are squeezed by MEG prices, putting pressure on the production profits of enterprises, and there is a risk of a decline in the subsequent polyester operating rate.