1、 Market Overview
| Melamine |
This week, the domestic melamine market as a whole showed a trend of “high-level sideways movement and narrow range oscillation”. As of October 9th, the benchmark price of melamine was reported at 6325.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price at the beginning of this week (October 2nd), with a fluctuation of 0.00%.
From the price trend, since October 2nd, the price of melamine has remained stable at 6325.00 yuan/ton, without any significant fluctuations. This extreme stability reflects the current balance of power between long and short sides in the market, with average trading activity and both upstream and downstream companies in a cautious wait-and-see state.
2、 Cost side: urea prices slightly decrease
As the main upstream raw material of melamine, the price fluctuation of urea directly affects the cost support of melamine.
As of October 9th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1777.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14% compared to the beginning of this month (1780.00 yuan/ton).
The weak consolidation of urea prices has slightly weakened the cost side support for melamine, but the decline is minimal (only 2.5 yuan/ton), which is not enough to have a substantial impact on the high price of melamine. The current strong price of melamine is more due to its own supply and demand pattern or the downstream board industry’s strong demand support, rather than simply cost push.
3、 Future forecast
Overall, the melamine market is in a game stage of “strong reality, weak expectations” in the short term.
Short term trend: Given the bullish positioning of the moving average system and the stability of prices, it is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the range of 6300-6350 yuan/ton at the beginning of next week. As long as the 10 day moving average does not fall below the 20 day moving average (i.e. the moving average does not turn negative), the upward trend has not been disrupted.
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