The traditional “Golden September” peak season expectation for electrolytic manganese in China in September has not been fulfilled, and the overall market is showing a trend of stable but weak operation. The market lacks sufficient upward momentum, and the atmosphere of upstream and downstream games is strong. The price focus is slowly shifting downwards month by month, and the market transaction atmosphere continues to be weak. The industry as a whole maintains a weak balance pattern.
In terms of manganese ore, the overall operation of the manganese ore end is relatively strong, with particularly outstanding performance at the port level. In terms of the main northern port Tianjin Port, the spot inventory in the port continues to be depleted, and the trends of different minerals have shown differentiation: the supply of South African semi carbonate blocks in the port is relatively tight, and traders have a strong mentality of raising prices, making it difficult for the price center to go up and down; The Australian dollar was driven by the increase in foreign market quotes, and port quotes followed suit with a slight increase in foreign market quotes, steadily raising the focus of transactions; Gabonese blocks, on the other hand, have maintained a strong spot price due to a slower pace of arrival at the port in the early stages and limited available resources for sale in the port. The overall situation of northern ports presents a two-way support pattern of “low inventory+external prices rising”, with weak willingness of traders to ship at low prices and gradually tilting bargaining power towards sellers.
The trend of Qinzhou Port in the south is stronger. Guangxi, as one of the core production areas for electrolytic manganese in China, continues to have a strong demand for imported manganese ore from surrounding smelters. The inventory in the port has significantly decreased due to the contraction of the previous arrival volume. In terms of mineral structure, Australian seeds have shown the strongest performance, and the price of high-grade Australian blocks remains high. South African semi carbonate has also increased synchronously with the tightening of inventory. Comparing ports in the north and south, ports in the south are closer to the main consumer areas, have more thorough inventory depletion, and have slightly stronger mineral prices than those in the north, resulting in a narrowing of the price difference between the north and south.
Supply side: The overall trend of active production control and low inventory operation continues in the main production areas of electrolytic manganese in China. The core smelting enterprises of Yunnan, Guizhou, Hunan, and Guangxi continue to control the pace of capacity release. In the current market situation, most manufacturers are close to the profit and loss threshold, and their willingness to significantly increase production is weak. The overall supply of spot goods in the market is not sufficient, and the inventory of finished products in factories remains in a low range. The sentiment of merchants being reluctant to sell at low prices has existed for a long time. In terms of export diversion, the trend of overseas demand recovery is limited, and the pace of downstream overseas procurement is stable, without the phenomenon of concentrated large-scale procurement. The diversion and driving effect of external demand on domestic spot goods is weak, which cannot effectively alleviate the pressure of domestic spot supply. The overall supply side has price support, but it can only limit a significant and rapid decline in prices, making it difficult to drive the market to reverse and strengthen.
Demand side: The demand side is the core drag factor in the market this month, and the weak trend of rigid demand procurement and no centralized replenishment is maintained throughout the downstream. As the core consumer sector of electrolytic manganese, the downstream of stainless steel continues to accumulate finished product inventory in steel mills, and the process of enterprise profit recovery is slow. The raw material procurement strategy is conservative, always maintaining a on-demand procurement mode. The monthly steel bidding price continues to decrease, and the trend of price suppression on the procurement side is obvious, greatly suppressing the upstream quotation space. Although the downstream market of lithium manganese oxide batteries has stabilized and stopped falling, the production of terminal 3C and small power cells continues to be sluggish, and the increase in raw material procurement by material factories is insufficient, which has a weak driving force on the demand for metallic manganese. The entire market shows a characteristic of moderate inquiry activity and low actual transactions, with a phenomenon of having prices but no market throughout the month. Weak terminal demand is the core logic that suppresses the upward trend of manganese prices.
The steel bidding for mainstream steel mills in September has basically been implemented, and the bidding pricing has increased month on month, but the purchasing volume of most steel mills has contracted month on month. Small and medium-sized steel mills refer to the mainstream steel procurement results and maintain overall rigid demand procurement. As the Double Festival holiday approaches, the concentrated inventory replenishment before the holiday falls short of market expectations. The steel mills themselves have weak steel profitability, limited acceptance of high spot prices, and weak willingness to chase high prices and purchase goods, mainly relying on consuming their own inventory.
Market forecast: At the cost level, the downward trend of auxiliary materials has not yet ended. Although manganese ore (including spot goods at ports) remains strong, there is a time lag in the transmission of rising ore prices to the cost of electrolytic manganese smelting. Currently, the profits of smelting enterprises have been compressed to near the profit and loss line, and the acceptance of high priced ores is limited. The overall cost support is still weak; Low inventory and production control on the supply side can only form a temporary buffer. Without large-scale unified production reduction actions, it is difficult to reverse the weak market; There is currently no clear signal of recovery in the downstream of stainless steel and lithium batteries on the demand side, and there has been no improvement in terminal orders. The trend of purchasing price suppression will continue.
The key to market differentiation depends on two variables: one is whether the industry has implemented unified production restrictions and control measures. If the reduction in production is implemented, the market may stop falling and enter a narrow range of fluctuations; The second is whether downstream terminal construction can continue to rebound and drive centralized replenishment. In addition, the arrival rhythm of manganese ore at the port and the trend of external quotations in the later stage also need to be continuously tracked. If the port inventory further tightens and pushes up the ore price, it may reverse and force the electrolytic manganese price to gain support from the cost side. If the above benefits are not realized, the price of electrolytic manganese will continue to show a weak downward trend.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |