Domestic nitrile rubber experienced a narrow range of fluctuations, initially declining and then rising

In August, domestic nitrile rubber first fell and then rose with a narrow range of fluctuations. According to the commodity market analysis system, as of August 20th, the price was 17000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.64% from 16725 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of August 20th, Lanhua Nitrile N41E in East China offered a price range of 17200 to 17300 yuan/ton; The mainstream price for 2665 in Russia ranges from 16400 to 16500 yuan/ton.

Multiple sets of cracking units for upstream raw material butadiene supply have been overhauled, resulting in a month on month decline in domestic production. The inventory of ports in East China has dropped to around 32000 tons, and there is a shortage of imported cargo arriving at the port. Spot resources have tightened, and coupled with the rise in crude oil prices again, butadiene manufacturers have strong efforts to raise prices. Data shows that the price of butadiene has risen from 10016 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12000 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.80%; The acrylonitrile industry has maintained a production rate of 69-71%, with some units undergoing periodic maintenance, and overall it is at a relatively low level. According to data from Shengyi Society, the price of acrylonitrile has risen from 11133 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11866 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.59%.
On the supply side, domestic nitrile rubber enterprises maintain a high operating rate of 82% -86%, with low factory inventory and strong willingness from manufacturers to raise prices; The pace of imported goods arriving at the port has slowed down, and the arrival of Japanese and Korean goods at the port has declined month on month. The shortage of spot goods of tight brands has formed a bottom support.
The demand side remains the main drag, with seal and hose sample enterprises operating at 48% -53% capacity. The nitrile glove industry is experiencing differentiated production, with downstream operations generally running at low inventory levels. Raw material procurement is mainly driven by rigid demand, with weak willingness to proactively replenish inventory and limited acceptance of high prices. Traditional off-season orders have not shown significant volume growth, suppressing upward potential.
Market forecast:
Nitrile rubber experienced a continuous decline for three months in the early stage, and the price was found to be at a low level in early July. From July to August, nitrile rubber hit the bottom and stabilized, rebounding. The 5/10 day moving average took the lead in turning upwards, standing above the 20, 30, and 60 day moving averages, completing the bullish repair of the moving average. The current price is above various moving averages, indicating a short-term rebound pattern; The recent upward trend has slowed down and entered a period of oscillation and grinding.
Overall, the short-term volatility of nitrile rubber is dominant, with limited downward space. Butadiene and crude oil are core variables, and if monomers continue to strengthen, there will be a slight upward trend in spot prices; If the raw materials fall, the market will follow suit and weaken. There are expectations for the “Golden September” in September, but whether downstream product production can rebound still needs to be verified.