Since August, the domestic PTA market has shown an overall trend of “first stabilizing and oscillating, then rising strongly”, and the overall price has shown a significant increase in upward momentum.
In early August, the PTA market was under overall pressure and fluctuated, with flat market trading. At the beginning of the month, the benchmark spot price in East China remained at around 5945 yuan/ton, with narrow fluctuations in price. The market was balanced between long and short positions, with smooth fluctuations in upstream costs and insufficient follow-up of downstream textile demand. Coupled with the stable operation of some equipment, the supply and demand were relatively balanced, and the market lacked clear upward momentum.
Starting from mid August, the PTA market experienced a strong rebound, with prices rapidly rising. Due to factors such as centralized maintenance of equipment and weather affecting logistics transportation, the domestic PTA operating rate fell to a low point this year, and the market spot supply significantly contracted, while social inventory continued to deplete, highlighting the tight supply pattern. The steady rise in international crude oil and PX raw material prices has provided strong support for PTA on the cost side, leading to a surge in the market. As of August 19th, the spot price of PTA surged to 6310 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 6.13% during the month.
Analysts believe that in the short term, there is no sign of easing in the confrontation between the United States and Iran, and the pattern of high volatility in crude oil is difficult to change, which continues to build a cost bottom for PTA. In addition, the rebound in demand has further boosted the upward trend of the market, with downstream polyester factories steadily increasing their operating rates to around 82%. The traditional textile peak season stocking demand has started, and the pace of replenishing inventory for essential needs has accelerated, effectively digesting the market’s stock of goods and further consolidating the basis for price increases. However, in late August, multiple sets of maintenance equipment on the supply side were restarted, and the increase in market supply was released, gradually easing the tight supply-demand balance and suppressing the momentum of price increases. Therefore, PTA will maintain a high and wide range of fluctuations from late August to early September, and we still need to pay attention to the geopolitical news of crude oil, the progress of equipment resumption, and the recovery of downstream orders.
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