Trade name: nitrile rubber

Latest price (November 11): 19233.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of NBR in China on the 11th was 19233.33 yuan / ton, up 0.70% compared with the previous day. On the one hand, the prices of butadiene and acrylonitrile continued to remain high, with strong support from the cost side. According to the business community, as of November 11, the price of butadiene was 9528 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of acrylonitrile and Secco in Shanghai was 9500 yuan / ton; on the other hand, the supply of nitrile rubber was relatively tight, and the ex factory price of manufacturers went up. On November 11, the ex factory prices of acrylonitrile rubber in Lanhua, Ningbo shunze and Sinopec Xibu were increased by 100-300 yuan / T, and the market was on the rise as a whole. According to the business agency, Zhenjiang Nandi nitrile rubber package was put in maintenance for about 15 days on October 25. Overall, the cost side and supply side of NBR form a strong support.

Aftermarket forecast: the cost side is high, the demand side is stable, and the market price of nitrile rubber is expected to remain high in the short term.

In recent years, the domestic aggregated MDI market has continued to rise. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the current domestic market price of aggregated MDI is 23000 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 27.42% and a year-on-year increase of 84.37%. The main manufacturers announced the latest guidance price, traders mainly wait-and-see attitude, the quotation has no obvious change. At present, the negotiated price of Wanhua goods in North China is about 22000-23000 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods is about 20500-21500 yuan / ton. The negotiated price of Wanhua goods in East China is about 22000-23000 yuan / ton, while that of Shanghai is about 21000-21500 yuan / ton. The negotiated price of Wanhua goods in South China is about 22000-23000 yuan / ton, while that of Shanghai is about 21000 yuan / ton.

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders Market:

Enterprise model price

Linyi Santong Chemical Co., Ltd. Wanhua material: 23000 yuan / T

Linyi Santong Chemical Co., Ltd. Shanghai Material: 21500 yuan / T

Nanjing Tanqing Trading Co., Ltd. various models: 22000 yuan / ton

Guangzhou Boshun Chemical Co., Ltd. Wanhua material: 23000 yuan / ton

Guangzhou Boshun Chemical Co., Ltd. Shanghai Material: 21000 yuan / ton

Shandong Bosu New Material Co., Ltd. Wanhua material: 23000 yuan / ton

Shandong Bosu New Material Co., Ltd. Shanghai Material: 21500 yuan / ton

In the future, traders are cautious in quoting and have heard about the low price. At present, there is resistance to high prices in the downstream. Analysts of business community aggregate MDI expect that the short-term domestic aggregate MDI market is mainly volatile.

1、 Trend analysis

On November 11, the spot copper price was 51965 yuan / ton, down 0.46% from the previous day, 5.98% higher than the beginning of the year, and 10.13% higher than the same period last year. Shanghai copper main shock operation after the opening, closed at 51930 yuan, down 0.40%. Luntong copper’s 3-month contract rebounded after a small low opening, closing at $6952, down 0.14%.

In terms of supply, the copper concentrate market remains tight. However, the import volume of copper from June to September was amazing, with the average monthly import of refined copper reaching more than 500000 tons. According to the import volume of non forged copper and copper materials in October, the import volume of refined copper in October was about 400000 tons. With a large number of imports, refined copper is gradually becoming abundant. In terms of demand, domestic terminal consumption shows differentiation, and the demand for cables is not good, while the growth of automobile and household appliances is driven by growth. In the next two months, we will focus on the power data. Spot market, traders cautious mood, downstream just need to purchase, the overall transaction is general.

In view of the above situation, there is a possibility of demand acceleration at the end of the year for power grid investment, automobile production and sales have been increasing for seven consecutive months, copper processing fee TC remains low, copper price has support at the bottom, and space below is limited.

At the beginning of November, the price of nitrile rubber increased significantly. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of nitrile rubber was 18200 yuan / ton on November 1 and 19100 yuan / ton on November 6. The price of nitrile rubber increased by 4.95% in just six days.

First of all, at the beginning of the month, the ex factory price of NBR manufacturers increased significantly. In just six days, the ex factory prices of some manufacturers increased twice, driving up the market sentiment. According to the monitoring of business agency, the listing price of NBR in Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was increased by 700 yuan / ton on November 2: at present, n41e reported 16500 yuan / ton, 3305e reported 17100 yuan / ton, 3308e reported 17700 yuan / ton; Ningbo shunze nitrile rubber ex factory price increased by 400 yuan / ton, the current nitrile 28 series reported 17800 yuan / ton, 3355 / 3365 / 3345 price was 18000 yuan / ton, 3380 yuan / ton.

On November 5, the listed price of NBR in Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was increased by 500 yuan / ton: at present, n41e was quoted at 17000 yuan / ton, 3305e was at 17600 yuan / ton, 3308e was at 18200 yuan / ton; the ex factory price of Ningbo shunze nitrile rubber was increased by 300 yuan / ton, and the current nitrile 3355 factory was 18300 yuan / ton.

Secondly, the price of raw materials remains high, and the cost side is still strongly supported. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of November 6, the butadiene price was 9142 yuan / ton; as of November 6, the ex factory price of acrylonitrile Shanghai Secco was 9200 yuan / ton. The prices of raw materials are in the high stage.

Finally, the epidemic situation in foreign countries is becoming more and more serious, and the demand gap of medical nitrile latex gloves is huge, which leads to the high demand of nitrile rubber latex and the difficulty to find bulk goods in the market, which forms a strong support for the whole nitrile market.

Aftermarket forecast: NBR analysts believe that the high price of raw materials, coupled with strong downstream demand, NBR prices will continue to remain high in the short term.

1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose. The quoted price rose from 1790.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1793.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 3.33 yuan / ton or 0.19%, 2.09% higher than the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, and the urea commodity index on November 6 was 83.41.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation point of view, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong area rose this week. At the end of this week, the price of Yangmei plain urea was 1790 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1790 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the price of open water urea was 1800 yuan / ton this weekend, which was increased by 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the domestic demand is fair, the agricultural demand in the northern region has followed up, and the industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. On the supply side, some enterprises limited production and equipment maintenance, resulting in local spot shortage.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the overall decline of urea upstream products this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell, with the quotation of liquefied natural gas falling from 3776.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3696.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a decrease of 2.12%, 12.12% compared with the same period of last year; the price of liquid ammonia fell this week, from 3193.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3133.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.88% compared with the same period last year 19% year on year. The price of melamine downstream of urea rose slightly this week, rising by 1.99% from 5866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5983.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Overall, this week’s urea cost support is weak.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of November, the market price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly. Urea analysts of the business club believe that the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry is still enthusiastic about urea procurement, and the industrial demand is to be purchased on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate and rise slightly.

The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on November 7 was 38.16, unchanged with yesterday, down 62.59% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), and 27.24% higher than 29.99, the lowest point on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

Price rise and fall of domestic main hydrobenzene markets from November 2 to 6 (unit: yuan / ton)

Regional prices rose and fell weekly on the 2nd and 6th

East China 3550-3650 3750-3800 + 175

Shandong 3350-3400 3550-3600 + 200

This week (November 2-6), the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province rose, at 3375 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3575 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 200 yuan / ton.

Summary of Sinopec’s pure benzene price adjustment in November 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Price adjustment amount after date adjustment

November 4 3750 + 150

In November 2020, Sinopec’s pure benzene price will be increased by 150 yuan / ton, and 3750 yuan / ton will be implemented by all its refineries.

Due to the strong ex factory benzene price of Shandong Petrochemical Co., Ltd., the ex factory price of pure benzene was further increased by the end of October At the end of the week, the styrene market dropped slightly, the price of hydrogenated benzene fell slightly, and the tender price of crude benzene rose on Thursday.

As for the future market, the business agency believes that the price of styrene to pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene has been reduced this week. Affected by the rising cost of raw materials, the downstream profit is reduced, and the supply and demand side of pure benzene is weak. There is a certain pressure on the upward trend. It is expected that the future market will be dominated by high consolidation.

1、 Price trend

The comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China fell this week, with the quotation falling by 2.40% from 312.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 305.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Overall, the market of hydrochloric acid fell this week, and the commodity index of hydrochloric acid on November 6 was 80.26.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation point of view, this week hydrochloric acid Market manufacturer quotation falls, the overall market is general. The quotation of Taiyuan kunshengda hydrochloric acid is 480 yuan / T, which is temporarily stable; Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 700 yuan / T, which is temporarily stable; Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 230 yuan / T at weekend, which is 30 yuan / t lower than that at the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid is 300 yuan / T at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid is quoted at 210 yuan / T at weekend, compared with the beginning of the week It increased by 40 yuan / ton.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is generally in general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, while the downstream silica market has a downward trend recently, and the market price of ammonium chloride is rising steadily, which has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. This week, the hydrochloric acid market as a whole seems to rise slightly, and the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem.

3、 Future forecast

The recent market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is general, while the market of silica and ammonium chloride in the downstream is slightly improved. Business agency analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has risen slightly in the near future.

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market continued its downward trend this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3330 yuan / ton, down 1.19% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene prices continued to fall this week. Sinopec’s enterprises in South China and central China will cut the price of xylene by about 100 yuan / ton this week. The port inventory is high. At present, the port inventory in East China is about 135000 tons, which is about 5000 tons lower than last week. The pressure to go to the warehouse is not reduced, the price is weak, and the demand has not improved. Market oversupply, downstream Px, gasoline blending demand is general. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3430 yuan / ton. The future market will focus on the outcome of the US election, the progress of the US economic stimulus plan, the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East and the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continuous deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.

In terms of crude oil, API and EIA data released in the early morning and night of Beijing time showed that the crude oil storage data of the United States last week was significantly lower than expected, and the news that OPEC + and Russia are considering a more substantial reduction in production at the beginning of next year boosted the bottom of the international crude oil recovery at the beginning of the week. However, the new epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is becoming more and more severe, and the result of the US election is still pending, which makes the market sense As of Friday, Brent rose 2.095 USD / barrel to 38.3 USD / barrel, up 5.79% from last week. At present, the main uncertain factors in the market come from the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States and the uncertainty of the US presidential election. The final direction of crude oil will not take further action until the demand side is better and the US election is clear. In the medium term, oil prices mainly depend on the recovery of demand side and the direction of macro market.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4300 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price was about 498 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 516 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will continue to decline. In terms of PTA market, the market price continued to decline this week. The domestic PTA spot market price was about 3126 yuan / ton, and the external price was about 421 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will continue to decline next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec quoted 4400 yuan / T of o-benzene, and the external price of o-benzene was about 532 USD / T FOB Korea and 553 USD / T CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will continue to decline next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that xylene in domestic market will be weak and fluctuate slightly next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic toluene market has been stable this week. As of Friday, the domestic market average price was about 3300 yuan / ton, down 0.3% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Supported by the rebound of international crude oil price, toluene price trend is stable this week. Sinopec’s enterprises listed toluene price stable this week. Port inventory fell slightly, but the pressure to the warehouse did not decrease. Market oversupply, downstream blending oil and solvent demand is general, price is weak, demand has not improved. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3330 yuan / ton. The future market will focus on the outcome of the US election, the progress of the US economic stimulus plan, the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East and the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continuous deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.

In terms of crude oil, API and EIA data released in the early morning and night of Beijing time showed that the crude oil storage data of the United States last week was significantly lower than expected, and the news that OPEC + and Russia are considering a more substantial reduction in production at the beginning of next year boosted the bottom of the international crude oil recovery at the beginning of the week. However, the new epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is becoming more and more severe, and the result of the US election is still pending, which makes the market sense As of Friday, Brent rose 2.095 USD / barrel to 38.3 USD / barrel, up 5.79% from last week. At present, the main uncertain factors in the market come from the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States and the uncertainty of the US presidential election. The final direction of crude oil will not take further action until the demand side is better and the US election is clear. In the medium term, oil prices mainly depend on the recovery of demand side and the direction of macro market.

Downstream, TDI continued the downward trend this week, the market mentality is cautious, trading atmosphere is weak, pay attention to factory policy guidance. At present, 15000 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 15500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will continue to decline. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 498 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 516 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will continue to decline.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that toluene in the domestic market will be weak and fluctuate slightly next week.

The domestic BDO market was still rising last week. According to sample data monitored by business society, the average price of domestic BDO producers on November 2 was 11300 yuan / ton, the average price of domestic BDO producers on November 6 was 11675 yuan / ton, the price increased by 3.32% in the week, and the price rose 36.82% on a month-on-year basis, up 22.64% year on year. For enterprise installations, Dongyuan will be overhauled on October 30, with 20 days expected; new industry is expected to restart in the middle; Tianye plans to restart 30000 tons of units in November; Shaanxi Ronghe plans to restart in November. As of today (11.9), the main flow of retail water in South China has been discussed from 11600 to 12000 yuan / ton; the mainstream spot bulk water negotiation in East China is 11600-12000 yuan / ton.

Some enterprises announced the October settlement price, which was listed in November:

Enterprise settlement in October (bulk water delivery) listing in November (bulk water delivery)

Xinjiang Meike Chemical Co., Ltd. RMB 9500 / T East China, 9650 yuan / T South China 10800-11500 yuan / ton, South China 11000-11600 yuan / ton

Xinjiang lanshantun River Chemical Co., Ltd. 9500 yuan / T in East China, 9600 yuan / T in South China, 11000 yuan / T in East China and 11200 yuan / ton in South China

At present, the spot supply is still tight, supporting the high-level offer of manufacturers. Downstream contract procurement is the main, other downstream storage and spot replenishment demand, the manufacturers pushed up strongly, the center of gravity continued to rise. BDO analysts at business agency expect that the domestic BDO market will still be at a high level this week.