The melamine market continued to show signs of fatigue this week, with prices fluctuating downwards and overall weak performance. On July 7th, the benchmark price of melamine reported by Shengyi Society was 6037.50 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 0.21% compared to the price of 6050.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of July.
1、 Spot moving average trend: clear downward trend, increasing downward pressure
| Melamine |
From the melamine price trend chart moving average system, the 10 day and 20 day moving averages showed a downward trend throughout the entire period, with the 10 day moving average consistently running below the 20 day moving average. The downward momentum in the market is still being released, but the pace of decline has slowed down. Throughout the entire cycle, the price followed the moving average downwards, and the moving average continued to suppress spot prices.
2、 Price Level 5: Low throughout the entire cycle, limited upward potential
The cycle position data shows that melamine is marked as low throughout the one-year cycle position. Although the price is already at a historically low level, it has not attracted buying in, and the low level has not provided support. The market still maintains a bearish trend. On July 3rd and June 30th, the price slightly fell by 0.21%, while on other trading days, the price remained flat and stable at 6037.50 yuan/ton for several consecutive days, belonging to a low-level stalemate state.
3、 Upstream raw material linkage: simultaneous weakening of urea and insufficient cost support
The core raw material of melamine, urea, also showed a downward trend this week. On July 7th, the benchmark price of urea was 1802.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62% from 1813.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The continuous decline in raw material prices cannot provide cost support for melamine. Upstream costs have loosened, manufacturers’ production costs have decreased, and the market’s willingness to offer discounts for shipments has increased, further suppressing the rebound space of melamine prices.
4、 Market prediction
The current melamine spread index remains negative, and the downward trend has not yet reversed. The price is at a low level throughout the entire cycle but lacks support. Coupled with the continuous weakening of upstream urea costs, the short-term market fatigue is difficult to quickly improve. The market is mainly stuck at a low level. If there is no sudden positive news to boost prices, they may continue to operate in a narrow and weak range, and there is currently no signal to stop the decline.
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