The recent soda ash market overall turnover light, light, heavy alkali trend differentiation. Light base downstream demand is light, heavy alkali downstream float glass market within a narrow range, the price of heavy alkali also experienced a brief high after the now has been temporarily stable. Heavy base of the overall inventory is too small, part of the soda ash enterprises have been adjusted light, heavy alkali production ratio, the relative balance between supply and demand, the whole soda ash market in July after a relatively stable operation phase. At present, the mainstream of the base of the base price of 1450-1800 yuan / ton, the mainstream of heavy alkali to offer in the 1700-1900 yuan / ton. But with the recent fourth batch of central environmental protection inspectors will be fully launched, high-pressure environmental policy of soda ash market where the road is up, is down? Late soda ash market offer supply and demand game under the dilemma. The reason for the following:

First of all, is the impact of environmental inspection on the soda ash business itself. New Minister of Environmental Protection Li Ganjie put forward the “five-step” environmental supervision and management of new ideas, strict governance “scattered pollution” enterprises, and can not upgrade the scale of the discharge of the enterprise, before the end of September 2017 will be closed. Affected by this, parking maintenance business gradually increased, enterprise device operating rate decreased, supply will also be tense situation.

Some enterprises even appeared in the phenomenon of not quoted quote. The industry pulled up a strong state of mind, upward signs seem to be ready, but the environmental inspection not only affected the soda ash market, the impact of the downstream business is also a small can not be discounted.

Followed by the impact of environmental protection under the downstream needs. The remediation of the “scattered chaos” business focus, including non-ferrous metal smelting processing, rubber production, leather, chemicals, carbon production, ceramic firing, and involving coatings, inks, adhesives, organic solvents such as printing, furniture And other small manufacturing and processing enterprises. Then the downstream light industry and printing and dyeing small businesses will be basically all shut down, soda ash market downstream demand will also be reduced. Which on the late soda ash market also produced negative factors. While the heavy alkali downstream of the glass industry, nor in the environmental storm survived the storm In recent years, the glass industry is also facing environmental protection at any time check the situation. Backward production enterprises have been shut down last year, if this year did not meet the standards of environmental protection, some companies are also facing delayed production. Despite the results of environmental protection inspectors, the glass industry is still problematic. But have to admit, under the weight of environmental protection, the glass industry has been reduced production capacity, product prices once straight up. Since last year, the glass industry environmental monitoring efforts have become more stringent, if the manufacturers fail to meet the standard, or stop production, or increase the desulfurization and denitrification equipment to improve.

Coupled with the current trend of the downstream market is running weak, alumina, for example, the recent continued weakness in alumina prices.

Shanxi 2510 fell 130, Shandong 2510 fell 130, Henan 2520 fell 130, Guangxi Baise 2430 fell 120, Lianyungang 2750 yuan / ton. Alumina prices fell last month to maintain the 0-130 yuan / ton. According to statistics, as of July 2017, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity has reached 38.36 million tons, illegal illegal electrolytic aluminum production capacity of about 8.74%. In April this year, the Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Land and Resources and the Ministry of Environmental Protection of the four ministries jointly launched a cleanup rectification of electrolytic aluminum industry illegal activities special action to open the electrolytic aluminum to the prelude to production capacity. The special action is divided into four stages: enterprise self-examination (completed before May 15), local verification (completed before June 30), special spot checks (completed before September 15) and supervision and rectification (completed before October 15). According to the production of 1 ton of electrolytic aluminum consumption 1.93 alumina calculation, the first half of the alumina supply of about 80 million tons, the average monthly supply of excess 140,000 tons.Melamine

On the whole, under the high pressure of the soda ash market offer supply and demand game under the dilemma, the late soda ash market in the supply and demand game will be a dilemma. Late standardization of production will be soda ash and downstream enterprises to survive the protection, so enterprises should make up the environmental assessment procedures as soon as possible, equipment updates and so on.

Since last week, China’s epichlorohydrin market into the uplink channel, the price again and again hit a new year to the East China market, for example, the end of July market negotiations in the 8000-8100 yuan / ton, closing today, the market price has risen to 9,000 yuan / Ton near, or up to 11.80%. However, the downstream industry in the traditional off-season, the demand has not significantly improved, coupled with the impact of environmental protection and cost, the market is also relatively light atmosphere of the negotiations, high-priced transactions are limited.

Epichlorohydrin plant operating load is not high, the market spot has significantly reduced. The main factory Dafeng device and Yihai Kerry devices are in the parking, the other plant installation load more than five or even lower, the manufacturers spot inventory is small, the market supply slightly tight, but the downstream epoxy resin by environmental protection and demand Constraints on the consumption of raw materials in general, the market did not improve the new trading atmosphere.

Short-term look at the downstream demand in the off-season, only part of the liquid resin downstream orders better, epichlorohydrin plant maintenance to improve the fundamentals of the situation, the production of new single offer also rise, the current Shandong Haili Chemical single offer 9,000 yuan / ton sent to East China, higher than the July low of nearly 1,500 yuan / ton, the venue is simply a little up with a slow, high prices still need time to implement. At present, the domestic environmental protection and safety supervision efforts, Shandong Haili chemical start limited, Jiangsu Haixing chemical short-term maintenance will resume full load start, and glycerol factory with the spot price increases the cost pressure gradually reduced, follow-up To enhance the space, is expected to short after the tight, the market will gradually increase the stock supply, and the main downstream of the epoxy resin factory no clear intention to raise start, the fundamentals of good and lasting to be wait and see. Short-term domestic sales of epichlorohydrin is expected to remain high consolidation, but high-priced stalemate after digestion risk.

The first half of this year, the domestic ammonium chloride market continued a few years ago in the weak supply and demand imbalance in the case of contradictions, manufacturers can only reduce the operating rate to control the decline in market prices. Although the operating rate to a certain extent, the control of the proliferation of market sources, but the price of ammonium chloride was once fell near the cost line, and even some factories have a loss of state, ammonium chloride stocks reached more than one million tons.

However, from mid to late June, beginning in July, the ammonium chloride market began to change, although the market price did not show a sharp rise in the trend, but the early lower than the cost price has basically disappeared. Kyrgyzstan enterprises began to recover the device started in about 7 percent, although some manufacturers started unstable, but the supply is relatively adequate. But from the market inventory point of view, ammonium chloride but not higher than the previous year, the phenomenon of more than one million tons of inventory.

From the latest customs data to understand that the larger market inventory where, in June 2017, China’s export fertilizer grade ammonium chloride 194,000 tons, a record monthly export history of the most record. According to the preliminary statistics of the customs, in July 2017 China’s ammonium chloride exports are expected to reach 250,000 tons, another record high. Since 2011, domestic ammonium chloride as a dual fertilizer export stranded in the port, the international demand for ammonium chloride is also significantly affected. In recent years, domestic fertilizer grade ammonium chloride in Southeast Asia to promote and demonstrate a good effect, so from the beginning of 2015, the international community has increased the demand for ammonium chloride.

A large number of exports can not effectively promote the domestic ammonium chloride prices up, edge is why? Mainly in terms of supply and demand, although the export volume increased significantly, but in the case of soda ash market is relatively good, the base unit operating rate is relatively high, basically maintained at 7-8 or so. The autumn market for small nitrogen and other raw materials demand is relatively limited, so manufacturers even if the intention to raise the market price, but the downstream acceptance is still general.

On the whole, the ammonium chloride market will temporarily maintain a stable operation of the situation, although the alkali companies have adjusted intention, but the difficulties can be achieved, so the short term, the ammonium chloride market needs to pay close attention to the downstream plant started The situation, the constraints of domestic demand is still in control of the market price of ammonium chloride changes.

Non-ferrous metal collective cooling, rising power can continue into focus. Since the midday metal rally kinetic energy gradually dissipated, the day the overall volatility is limited, closing only copper fell slightly, the rest of the metals are closed up.

Development and Reform Commission shut down the country’s largest enterprise electrolytic aluminum illegal production capacity, on behalf of China to resolve electrolytic aluminum and other industries excess capacity attitude is very firm, the market was encouraged. The current round of metal collective rise, on the one hand is the supply side of the reform from the limited production to environmental orderly advance, the number of enterprises cut off the market exceeded the market expectations; the other hand, in the supply from the surplus to clear the background, steel, , Electrolytic aluminum and other industry profits rose sharply, the market outlook will continue to be optimistic.

However, from the various varieties of view, the strongest fundamentals of zinc, zinc production this year, China is not as expected, so that the supply shortage situation is more serious. While the high inventory of aluminum, suggesting that the state is still in excess, but the hype space. Copper is the most stable metal at this stage, the fundamentals tend to balance the state is the main reason for its price fluctuations, but should pay attention to the recent hype of copper.

According to the United States, fuel and petrochemical manufacturers statistics show that the United States in June propylene exports increased by 19%, from 5.1348 million tons in May increased to 609.77 million tons. According to the US International Trade Commission recently released the latest statistics, the United States in June propylene exports to record highs.

Statistics show that the United States in June propylene exports in June last year, 3.9488 million tons of exports soared by 54%.

Statistics also show that the United States in June propylene exports of the three largest destinations are Mexico, Canada and Belgium and Luxembourg, the three were imported 3.2834 million tons, 2.0826 million tons and 7038 tons.

Statistics show that Canada in June is the largest supplier of propylene in the United States, exports reached 13.48 million tons.

What is the importance of changes in market demand for oil prices? It is worth noting that a new change in the global oil market is happening quietly – electric cars are gradually replacing traditional cars. What impact does this have on oil prices?

At the end of the 19th century American oil production, gasoline was considered a useless by-product of oil refining, when gasoline prices were very cheap, or even burned or dumped in rivers. When the first batch of large-scale production of traditional cars appeared, the demand for gasoline was greatly improved, gasoline prices also led to rising crude oil prices.

From the above historical facts, we can find that the change in market demand is important for oil prices. It is worth noting that, just over a century later, a new change in the global oil market is taking place – electric cars are gradually replacing traditional cars.

First, the emergence of electric locomotives become a major challenge in the oil industry

Britain and France recently announced a plan. The plan is to ban the sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2040. The plan has been the key issue for the oil industry: the emergence of a large number of electric vehicles is leading to a decline in oil demand?

1, oil producers began to pay attention to the impact of electric vehicles on oil prices

Some of the world’s oil company executives in the status quo, but also did not realize the importance of the problem. These executives take for granted that the current oil company’s overall performance in the second quarter is generally strong, even in the long run, the global oil demand slowed, but the recent outlook is still optimistic.

However, Ben van Beurden, chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell, did not try to cover up the challenges facing the oil industry. “Our company must reduce the development of oil fields, and only the lowest cost and most likely to remain competitive will be mined.”

Ben van Beurden said, “We must objectively face the resilience of the oil market, the current strong demand in the oil market, but there will be demand when the downturn, when the specific demand will decline, we do not know, but sooner or later will happen We are sure. ”

Ben van Beurden said, “oil peak demand may be in the late twenties and thirties, that is, electric cars began to appear in a large number of optimistic circumstances, after the oil demand will gradually reduce.However, now look at the electric car industry also Need more innovation in battery technology, and more policy support, it is possible to compete with the oil car.

2, electric vehicle policy advantage can not be ignored

Britain and France plan to phase out gasoline and diesel vehicles over the next two decades, increasing the policy advantage of electric vehicles. Equally important, car manufacturers have also made their promises for this.

Volvo said last month that all new models will be converted from 2019 to electric or hybrid. At the same time, Tesla (365.22, 10.05, 2.83%) increased the effort of the new electric car launched last month.

Figure 2: growth expectations of electric vehicle sales (dark blue for the growth of China’s electric car is expected, light blue for the global growth of electric vehicles is expected) Figure 2: electric vehicle sales growth expectations (dark blue for China’s electric vehicle growth is expected, light blue for the global electric Car growth is expected)

3, China and India are expected to vigorously develop battery technology

China and India are ambitious in battery technology, and these two countries are likely to promote the development of electric vehicles.

At present, China is already the world’s largest electric car market, Chinese companies have begun to dominate the battery manufacturing industry.

Research firm Trusted Sources analyst Kingsmill Bond predicts that “with the cost of electric vehicles and traditional vehicles parity, there will be a turning point in early 2020. The rise of electric vehicles is another indicator of systemic changes in the energy market, but also the oil investors Early warning. ”

Second, the transformation of market demand still takes a long time

Many oil industry analysts believe that the transformation of market demand takes a long time. ExxonMobil (79.96, -0.20, -0.25%) the company expects the current growth of electric vehicles on the global oil demand is relatively small. The company also believes that despite the slowdown in oil demand growth, but oil demand will continue to grow until the twenty seventies of the twenty-first century.

1, the traditional vehicle replacement in developing countries is relatively slow

It is worth mentioning that the UK and France may be on the new electric vehicle policy advantage and will not determine the fate of the oil industry.

According to the International Energy Agency, non-OECD countries will grow by 19 per cent, although oil demand is expected to decline by nearly 12 per cent in the more affluent OECD countries between 2015 and 2040. By the end of 2040, 60% of the demand will come from outside the OECD.

“The growth of internal combustion engines in developing countries is still strong because they do not have electrical infrastructure and electric cars do not simply replace traditional cars,” explains Ben van Beurden.

Bob Dudley, CEO of BP, said, “Although the rise of electric vehicles is inevitable, but the traditional car will last for several decades.We predicted that by 2035, electric vehicles will reach 1 million.Even if the electric car growth rate turned Fan, the road is still a lot of traditional vehicles.

2, gasoline demand decline may also be offset by other industry demand growth

Gasoline’s declining demand for oil is also likely to be offset by growth in air and heavy freight, and freight is harder to turn to alternative fuels. Petrochemical is also another source of long-term demand.

According to the International Energy Agency statistics, 2015 passenger cars accounted for 26% of global oil demand, more than aviation, shipping and petrochemicals. But then, with the conversion of passenger cars to electric cars, oil demand will turn to the head of shipping and petrochemicals.

Saudi oil chief executive Amin Nasser said last month that even if the traditional fuel began to lose market share, history tells us that the demand for oil will continue to rise.

Amin Nasser believes that even in the 20th century, coal growth, it is difficult to reduce the global market demand for oil.

In summary, the current global oil industry is still in the early stages of solving the problem of electric vehicles affecting the oil market. Some companies have begun to take precautions, some companies do not agree. Among them, Shell plans to spend billions of dollars a year to develop alternative energy, but this is still a small part of the overall capital expenditure.

“We are a $ 280 billion company, and we invest $ 25 billion to $ 30 billion a year, so ten years only, we will build a new shell, which gives us a lot of flexibility to adapt,” Shell executives said. Changes in global market demand. ”

August 9 news, the same day the news that the Libyan Sharala oil field in the short-term after the resumption of production to return to about 27 million barrels of normal level. The market worried about the crude oil market will continue to maintain oversupply situation, oil prices under pressure.

As of the day closing, the New York Mercantile Exchange in September delivery of light crude oil futures fell $ 0.22 to close at $ 49.17 a barrel, down 0.45%. October delivery of London Brent crude oil futures fell $ 0.23 to close at 52.14 US dollars a barrel, down 0.44%.

Recently the cobalt city and then welcome. According to the business data show that August 1 cobalt commodity index was 143.82, compared with the previous day rose 0.11 points, compared with the highest point in the cycle 145.08 points (2017-07-06) fell 0.87%, compared with July 10, 2016 The lowest point 69.84 points rose 105.93%. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 so far).

Cobalt material characteristics of outstanding, vertical and horizontal seven areas, the industry value chain to accelerate the development of the whole, the industry concentration steadily improved, cobalt rare when the benefits of multiple links: cobalt material physical and chemical properties, widely used in seven areas , Involving materials, chemicals, batteries and other aspects. Which lithium cobalt oxide and ternary material in the form of lithium battery as a cathode material, in the field of intelligent 3C and new energy vehicles a lot of applications. Coke prices in the current range, the cumulative increase in 2017 reached 65%. Relying on smart electronics, the demand for new energy vehicles heavy volume, the relevant cobalt raw materials in the downstream market applications will gradually increase, driving the entire upstream raw material production and development of enterprise scale expansion, forming a good cycle to strengthen the model. Downstream seven areas continue to rise in demand will also boost the demand for raw materials.

The supply side – the slowdown in the future growth is limited, the shortage cycle to promote the rise in cobalt prices: According to the cobalt two sources of mine + refining estimates, on the one hand the main mine lower yield, giants reluctant to sell behavior continued, cobalt ore production recovery rate is limited; On the one hand refining the cobalt industry continued to slump leading to the global production capacity of refined cobalt is limited, the two effects superimposed, the supply of short-term can not achieve sustained and stable output. We estimate the supply of cobalt, which 2017-2018 is expected to cobalt supply of 99089 tons and 102489 tons, an increase of 5.54% and 3.43%. Overall, 2017-2018 global cobalt supply and refined cobalt production growth rate will not be much improvement, heavy volume is not obvious, slow down the recovery rate, the supply cycle is still in the future, the basis of the future is more stable, logical Can stand.

Demand side – the seven downstream areas Qi force, support demand continued to grow: demand growth mainly from the demand for new energy vehicles brought ternary material with a substantial increase in cobalt content, high temperature alloy demand growth, carbide demand slowed. At the same time, industrial areas, 3C and energy storage capacity of cobalt growth will also maintain steady growth. In the global trend of irreversible development of new energy vehicles, ternary battery applications to enhance the proportion of the general trend of the future power battery will become the main increase in demand for cobalt. We expect the global cobalt demand in 2017 to 2019 will grow at a rate of 7% -9%. In 2017, the demand in 2018 will reach 123,400 tons and 132,700 tons respectively.

The supply of slow heavy volume superposition of the rapid growth of demand, the shortage of space still exists, the future growth of cobalt industry chain still in the overall view, cobalt resources supply and demand is not balanced, the future shortfall gap will expand, the possibility of rising cobalt prices will increase. It is expected that the shortage of space will be further widened in 2017-2018, facing a gap of 24,300 tons and 30,200 tons of raw materials. The growth rate of refined cobalt supply in the world is growing at a slower rate than cobalt consumption, mainly due to the strong growth of rechargeable batteries and aerospace industries. Cobalt industry chain into the inventory stage, which basically get support to regain the uplink power.

Overall, the first half of 2017 small metal plate market is good, although the product differentiation, but generally fell little, or significant increase. Which is the most eye-catching performance of cobalt, is a small metal plate deserved to star varieties. In the short-term fundamentals can not be changed under the premise of the market is expected to stabilize stability, some varieties such as indium, magnesium, antimony, bismuth, will be weak and stable, small metal index fluctuation range at 750-850 points.

According to institutional data, a large number of rare earth varieties on the 3rd offer a substantial increase, especially since this year, approaching 60% of praseodymium neodymium prices rise again.

Data show that July 31 to August 3, praseodymium from 49 million / ton up to 51 million / ton, neodymium from 365,000 yuan / ton rose to 38 million / ton, praseodymium neodymium rose 2 Million yuan / ton to 41.5 million / ton. Metal neodymium, metal praseodymium neodymium latest offer were 48 million / ton, 530,000 yuan / ton, respectively, up 15,000 yuan / ton and 30,000 yuan / ton. In addition, gadolinium oxide from 90,000 yuan / ton up to 95,000 yuan / ton, gadolinium iron rose 0.5 million / ton. Dysprosium oxide and dysprosium iron were up 2 million / ton. Erbium oxide rose 0.5 million yuan / ton.

Guotai Junan colored team that in July the domestic rare earth industry continued to “hit the black”, the main origin of Hunan, Guangdong is being verified, the industry supply and demand conditions continue to improve, rare earth prices will continue to bullish, during the year or do not see the end.

In addition, the Shanghai News reporter learned yesterday from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, Zhang source tungsten industry in the first half of August long offer has been released. Among them, black tungsten concentrate (WO3 ≥ 65%) offer for 91,000 yuan / ton, white tungsten concentrate (WO3 ≥ 65%) offer for 89,500 yuan / ton, were higher than the second half of July rose 0.65 million / Standard tons. Ammonium paratungstate (GB grade zero) offer for 14 million / ton (cash), compared with the second half of July rose 1 million / ton.

Everbright Securities Research report that the mine self-reduction, environmental supervision and production quota enforcement efforts to increase the upstream supply continued to tighten, downstream consumption remained stable, coupled with raw material suppliers bullish reluctant to sell mood, 2017 tungsten prices into the rising channel. With the improvement of supply and demand, tungsten prices are expected to continue to rise.

According to sources, the European polystyrene (PS) spot price fell last week compared to the previous week.

Wednesday, GM polystyrene (GPPS) spot FD Northwest Europe offer for 1,300 euros / ton, compared to the previous week down 20 euros / ton; high impact polystyrene (HIPS) spot FD Northwest Europe offer 1,380 euros / ton.

“Last week’s demand for health,” said one trader and added that he had traded several deals.

HIPS

But he also pointed out that the price is difficult to mention, because the market would have expected the price in August will be lower.

August styrene raw materials prices bearish, GPPS demand decline, even if the market is more active, it is difficult to support the price rise.

Another trader says there will be some inventory adjustments before the summer holiday arrives.

In addition, according to industry sources, Egypt E-styrenics is expected to restart GPPS production in the short term. But the news did not get the company’s comments.

E-styrenics GPPS production plant since the first quarter of this year began to shut down.

Traders said that although E-styrenics may be the first batch of products produced after the restart of the device supply to the local market, but also most likely in the near future exports to Europe.