Entering October, the domestic PTA spot market price has emerged from a trend of first rising and then fluctuating and falling, presenting an overall game pattern of “strong cost support and weak demand drag”. As of October 22nd, the spot benchmark price of PTA in East China was 7100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.10% from the beginning of the month.
In early October, crude oil rose due to geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, coupled with centralized maintenance of PX facilities and the shutdown of multiple PTA facilities in China. The supply of spot goods tightened, and coupled with continuous destocking in the early stage and low social inventory, PTA quickly rose, with spot prices reaching a new high of over 7800 yuan/ton in nearly four years, with a significant increase in basis and premium.
After the surge, the market quickly diverged and the upward momentum gradually declined. With high prices suppressing downstream purchasing intentions, polyester enterprises have a weak willingness to pursue price increases, and negative feedback from the industry chain is evident. The comprehensive production of polyester remains at around 74%, significantly lower than the peak season level in previous years. The weaving operation rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is less than 60%, and the terminal textile orders are lower than expected. The fulfillment of the “Golden September and Silver October” peak season is weak, and downstream demand is mainly based on immediate use and procurement, and they dare not stock up in large quantities. At the same time, some maintenance facilities are planned to restart, and the market is shifting from tight balance to marginal accumulation. Processing fees have fallen from high levels, and prices have entered a high volatility range, with fluctuations mainly following the rhythm of crude oil.
Analysts believe that in the short term, PTA is likely to maintain a wide range of fluctuations. Positive support comes from the cost premium of crude oil and PX, as well as the current low absolute inventory level, which limits the potential for deep decline. But concentrated in weak terminal demand, polyester profits are under pressure. Once raw materials continue to remain high, there is a possibility of further expansion of downstream production cuts, which will continue to suppress the rebound height.
The future still needs to pay attention to the disturbance of the Middle East geopolitical situation on crude oil prices, the pace of PX and PTA maintenance and restart, the speed of supply increment release, and the demand side textile terminal orders. The recovery of orders before and after Double Eleven will directly affect the pace of polyester production and raw material procurement.
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