From October 8 to 16, 2026, the domestic No. 1 antimony ingot market experienced a significant decline. The average price at the beginning of the month was 103,750 yuan per ton, while the average price on the 16th dropped to 93,750 yuan per ton, marking a cumulative decrease of 9.64%.
After the National Day holiday, the domestic antimony ingot market showed a trend of initially holding firm at high levels before fluctuating downward. In the early period, the market maintained a high-level consolidation, with smelters demonstrating strong price support intentions. However, post-holiday downstream stockpiling fell short of expectations, while terminal buyers’ wait-and-see sentiment intensified, leading to persistently weak transactions. Sellers gradually faced offloading pressure, and prices began declining continuously from midweek. On the supply side, tight raw material availability provided cost support, while weak downstream demand fulfillment dragged down spot prices. The tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces intensified, resulting in overall sluggish trading. The market transitioned from previous high-level fluctuations to a weaker performance.
Supply side:
In this cycle, the domestic antimony ingot raw material market remained generally tight. Domestic antimony mining operations were strictly controlled, resulting in overall tight supplies of antimony concentrate. Mine production growth was limited, and the price of 50% antimony concentrate declined in tandem with antimony ingots. However, low inventory levels at the mine end showed no significant improvement, keeping the procurement costs of smelting raw materials at high levels, which provided bottom support for antimony ingot prices. The production capacity of major domestic smelters remained stable, with no concentrated resumption of operations or significant production cuts. The total spot circulation volume was limited, and overall social inventory levels remained relatively low.
Initially, smelters were relatively strong in maintaining prices and reluctant to sell at low levels. However, as downstream demand remained sluggish with delayed restocking, some suppliers gradually softened their offers to recoup funds, leading to a slight increase in spot market liquidity. Overall, tight constraints on raw material supply limited the downward space for antimony ingots, though the smelters’ ability to sustain prices weakened amid weak demand.
Demand side:
In traditional downstream applications, antimony accounts for approximately 55% in flame retardant materials and about 15% in glass. Antimony is an indispensable and irreplaceable element in the production of photovoltaic glass. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the primary growth in antimony metal demand will be in the photovoltaic sector. During this cycle, downstream demand for antimony ingots is primarily driven by rigid requirements, while the expectation of concentrated procurement during peak seasons has not materialized. Downstream enterprises generally adopt a just-in-time approach, with limited willingness to stockpile large quantities, resulting in overall weaker demand.
Antimony oxide: As the largest traditional downstream application of antimony ingots, antimony oxide is primarily used in flame-retardant materials. In this cycle, the flame-retardant products industry maintained stable operations but showed no significant improvement. Antimony oxide plants maintained procurement based on basic demand. During the decline in antimony ingot prices, downstream flame-retardant enterprises still avoided high-price risks and purchased at lower prices, with orders mainly consisting of short-term and small-volume contracts. Antimony oxide plants did not actively stockpile, and antimony ingot consumption remained limited, dragging down spot transactions of antimony ingots.
Photovoltaics: Photovoltaic glass is a long-term core incremental area for antimony ingots. The long-term logic of industry capacity expansion remains unchanged, but in this cycle, photovoltaic glass manufacturers have been relatively cautious in their procurement pace, with no concentrated restocking. Glass plants primarily rely on depleting existing inventory, purchasing small batches as needed without a significant increase in procurement volume. This results in insufficient short-term demand for antimony ingots, with expectations that only sustained medium-to-long-term capacity expansion will support antimony demand.
Market Outlook:
In the short term, the domestic antimony ingot market will continue to maintain a volatile and weak pattern. On the negative side, there is currently no centralized replenishment plan for downstream photovoltaic and antimony oxide sectors, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the terminal is difficult to quickly dissipate in the short term. The weak spot trading will continue to suppress the price of antimony ingots. Positive support comes from tight supply of antimony concentrate, low overall inventory in the industry, bottoming out of smelting costs, and limited room for deep decline in antimony ingots. Two key points to focus on in the future market are: first, changes in the start of production and replenishment actions in the antimony oxide flame retardant industry; The second is the pace of raw material procurement for photovoltaic glass enterprises. If downstream centralized replenishment is released in the future, there is a chance for antimony ingots to rebound; If the demand continues to maintain a weak and rigid demand state, antimony ingots will continue to oscillate at a low level. In the medium to long term, the supply constraints of antimony ore resources still exist, and the continuous expansion of photovoltaic production brings about an increase in demand. The antimony price operation center has long-term upward potential.
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