1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc market plummeted on Sunday, and the zinc price fell 7.31% on the 19th. As of March 19, the spot price of zinc was 14530.00 yuan / ton, down 8.88% from 15946.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and up 7.31% on March 19. Panic in the international market spread to China, and spot zinc prices fell sharply.

2、 Market trend analysis

Fitch lowered its forecast for zinc price this year

Fitch solution, an industry consultancy, lowered its forecast for zinc prices this year to $2250 a tonne from $2450 a tonne earlier, with factories in China and the rest of the world shutting down more at this stage. At the same time, the agency said that the processing cost of zinc concentrate has been increasing throughout 2019 and 2020 (in the supply contract), and the increase in the processing cost of zinc concentrate has encouraged Chinese zinc smelters to increase production in the second half of this year, which may lead to a reduction of market supply shortage. In the case of limited demand, zinc inventory increased significantly, leading to a decline in optimism among market participants. The upward momentum of zinc price weakened and the downward pressure increased.

International zinc price fell for several days in a row

The price of zinc in LME market fell sharply for three consecutive days. On March 18, the price of zinc fell to 1819 US dollars / ton. The fall of international zinc price has a negative impact on domestic zinc price. The negative pressure of zinc is increasing.

The monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in February hit a new low since January last year

The monthly retail sales rate in the United States recorded – 0.5% in February, with an expected value of 0.2%. The previous value was revised up from 0.3% to 0.6%, and the monthly rate data hit a new low since January last year. Analysts expect a surge in grocery purchases in March, but in April it will be bad. The fall in U.S. consumption reflects the weak global consumption environment this year, the global economic downturn and the expected sharp decline in zinc demand. After the zinc market, the negative market increased.

Domestic zinc output from January to February

China’s zinc production in January February was 1.04 million tons, up 12.9% year-on-year, according to data released by the National Bureau of statistics on Tuesday. The high cost of zinc processing in China has made zinc smelting enterprises more active in production, increased supply of zinc market and increased zinc inventory.

The delivery service fee standard of multiple domestic futures is adjusted to 0

The previous exchange also announced that from April 10, 2020 to January 8, 2021, the delivery service charge standard of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, screw steel, wire rod, hot rolled coil, stainless steel, gold, silver, natural rubber, paper pulp, fuel oil and petroleum asphalt futures will be temporarily adjusted to 0.

3、 Future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business club, believes that although all countries have certain economic stimulus plans in the near future, the repeated circuit breakers in the stock market reflect that the economic stimulus plan has not brought much confidence to the market, and the global market demand is expected to decline sharply in 2020. For the zinc market, the price of zinc in the international market has dropped sharply for several consecutive days, and the negative pressure on the domestic zinc market continues to increase; however, under the condition of a sharp decline in demand expectation, the domestic zinc ingot production has not declined correspondingly. On the contrary, in January February, when most downstream customers stopped production, the domestic zinc ingot production has increased by 12.9% year on year. Under the condition of insufficient demand, the supply has increased, and the zinc ingot price has increased It is inevitable that things will fall. However, such a sharp decline on the 19th is still rare in the history of zinc market, and the increase in supply is only one factor. The fear of global market demand in the future is the main cause of zinc price falling to the end.

The price of silver has fallen beyond recognition

Trend of spot silver price

The futures market continued to decline after the third consecutive decline of Shanghai and Bank of China. Today, it continued to open low and walk low. On February 24, the price of Shanghai silver in 2006 was still 4500 yuan / kg. Today, the lowest price is 2857 yuan / kg, and the closing price is 2937 yuan / kg.

Silver futures fell to a total loss, comparable to the U.S. stocks. Spot silver prices are following suit.

According to the tracking data of business agency, the average price of spot silver market on March 19 was 2942.67 yuan / kg, which was 4247.33 yuan / kg compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a 30.72% drop in the month.

Break through 3000 silver and set a new low in 10 years

As a precious metal with strong industrial properties, silver has recently fallen. As precious metals, the trend of gold and silver prices tends to be obvious, but the recent gains and losses are significantly different.

According to the tracking data of business agency, the average spot gold market price on March 19 was 331.75 yuan / g, which was 370.75 yuan / g compared with the average market price at the beginning of the month, down 10.52% in the month. Lengthen the price trend (as shown in the figure below). At present, precious metal gold is only down the increase since December last year, while silver spot price has fallen to the lowest price since the tracking data on September 6, 2011.

On March 18, the silver commodity index was 35.19, down 0.54 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 65.76% from the highest point of 102.76 on September 6, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Price trend of gold and silver in recent 10 years

 
How to deal with market panic

List of interest rate cuts by central banks this week (incomplete statistics):

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates to zero on Sunday and launched a massive $700 billion quantitative easing program. The Federal Reserve also cut banks’ emergency loan discount rate by 125 basis points to 0.25% and extended the loan term to 90 days.

Bank of Jordan: cut the main interest rate by 100 basis points (for the second time in recent two weeks) to 2.50% to stimulate the economy.

The Central Bank of Chile cut interest rates by 75 basis points to 1%.

The Egyptian central bank cut the interest rate by 300 basis points, reducing the overnight deposit rate to 9.25%, up from 12.25%.

Poland’s central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 1%; cut the bank’s direct financing rate by 100 basis points to 1.5%; and cut the rediscount rate to 1.05%, previously 1.75%.

The Bank of Iceland cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.75%.

Brazil’s central bank: cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%. Previously, analysts expected 4.00%.

Ghana’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate from 16% to 14.5%.

Wrong killing in panic?

The outbreak of overseas oil black swan incident was superimposed, and the speculative market plummeted like a virus among various varieties.

Such as US stocks, because of their higher valuation + investment game theory convergence risk, panic resistance is weak, the bubble was plummeted to correct.

In the precious metals category, silver has a strong industrial attribute and a weak hedging attribute, which is obviously impacted by the convergence of panic and speculative effect.

Under the environment of the market’s growing concern about the economic slowdown and the simultaneous downward movement of precious metal prices, on the one hand, we should consider the dynamic changes in the physical demand and supply of precious metal silver; on the other hand, we should also consider the factors of capital, the speculative cost performance of silver in the trading market after the panic and collapse.

On the premise of no systemic risk in the world economy, ye Jianjun, a precious metals analyst at the business club, believes that with the stable market expectation and the disappearance of panic, the investment demand of precious metals will usher in a new climax under the loose monetary policies of various countries.

On March 17, the fluorite commodity index was 119.30, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.42% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 142.43% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite is stable temporarily. As of the 18th day, the average price of domestic fluorite is 3400 yuan / ton. In recent years, the operation rate of domestic fluorite plant is relatively low, there is less resumption of construction of mine and flotation plant in the site, and the supply of fluorite in the site is still tight. In the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream remains high. For the purchase on demand in the fluorite market, the goods in the fluorite site are in good condition, and the price trend of fluorite market is stable temporarily. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is tight, and the downstream terminal purchases on demand, resulting in high market price. As of August 18, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 3200-3400 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 3300-3500 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 3300-3600 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3300-3600 yuan / ton.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid downstream of fluorite fluctuates. As of the 18th, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11500 yuan / ton. The high market price of hydrofluoric acid has a certain positive impact on the upstream market of fluorite. However, in recent years, the operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite is normal, some enterprises have not yet started, the supply of goods in the site is relatively tight, and the price of fluorite remains high. In the near future, the transaction market of downstream refrigerants of the terminal has increased. At present, the automobile industry is gradually back to work. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The price trend of domestic refrigerants R22 market is rising slightly. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production units is still not high. The supply of goods in the market is general. The downstream air-conditioning manufacturers stop more and the demand changes little. The price mainstream of domestic large enterprises rises to 16500-1850 0 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China has increased slightly, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises has increased slightly. At present, the downstream construction is not high, and the demand for R134a is general. Recently, the stock of downstream industries has increased, and the price has increased slightly. The downstream is still on-demand procurement. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market remains high, and the price trend of fluorite market is temporarily stable supported by favorable conditions.

On the whole, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is rising slightly, the supply of fluorite is tight, and the recent price trend of hydrofluoric acid market remains high. Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may remain high in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of March 18, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9760 yuan / ton, with a 1.91% month on month drop in price and a 7.77% year-on-year increase.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the domestic BDO market is in a stalemate. The factory’s starting load is low, but the inventory pressure is high. Some manufacturers are still willing to ship at a low price. The downstream construction is limited, the demand recovery is slow, the market entry conflicts with the high price, and the focus of on-site single negotiation is slightly down.

In terms of market, BDO market in North China has a lower focus, limited on-site favorable support, weak downstream demand, increased market entry prudence, small order inquiry for some of the on-site memory, and relatively cold negotiation atmosphere for large orders. The BDO market in East China is weak, the downstream construction is limited, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is weak. The enterprise inventory is still difficult to digest, some manufacturers continue to let the interest shipping intention, and the focus of on-site actual single negotiation is slightly lower. The BDO market in South China is weak, the plant load is low, and the intention to support the market is still there. However, the downstream construction is limited, the market entry depresses the high price, and the focus of spot market negotiation is slightly weak.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol and domestic methanol market as a whole maintained a weak trend, and prices in some regions continued to decline. In terms of the mainland market, the demand side is light, the supply-demand contradiction is dependent on each other, and the new price decline in the northwest is conducted, which leads to a continued decline in some parts of the mainland. In terms of port market, the narrow amplitude is mainly fluctuating, and the overall amplitude is not large. It is reported that the basis is slightly stronger, and the short-term market trends such as crude oil still need to be paid attention to.

Calcium carbide: the calcium carbide Market in Inner Mongolia fluctuates, and the main factory price of the local first-class calcium carbide is about 2700-2850 yuan / ton. The plant of the local manufacturer is generally started, and the downstream reception is acceptable. Based on the overall analysis, it is predicted that the short-term market price will fluctuate in a narrow range.

3、 Future forecast

On the positive side, the manufacturer’s offer is firm, and the factory starts at a low level. On the negative side, the downstream demand is weak, and the negative mood is obvious. BDO analysts predict that the short-term domestic BDO market will focus on narrow range consolidation, focusing on downstream commencement and actual single transaction.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, on the 18th, the spot copper price was 41395 yuan / ton, down 1.62% compared with the previous day’s quotation, down 17.32% year on year. Shanghai copper’s main contracts fell sharply, with a drop of 6.26% to 39960 yuan.

2、 Market analysis

In the afternoon, the hedge funds under chuanqiao water were redeemed in large quantities after a sharp fall, which caused further panic in the market due to the doubt of liquidity. In the afternoon, the market pessimism rose sharply. Shanghai copper fell to the limit in a straight line, and Luntong also fell below the $5000 threshold. LME copper inventory increased by 40600 tons to 220325 tons. Goldman Sachs lowered its average copper price forecast for the next three months to $4900 from $5900 per ton, while Standard Chartered Bank forecast an average copper price of $5420 per ton in the second quarter. According to the National Bureau of statistics, China’s refined copper output rose 2.8% to 1.527 million tons from a year earlier. Downstream consumption is still weak, and overall market trading is weak.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, copper analysts of the non ferrous branch of the business society think that: the macro expectation is poor, the inventory is accumulated, and the short-term copper price is still weak.

The TDI commodity index on March 17 was 58.38, flat with yesterday’s record low in the cycle, down 76.46% from the highest of 248.02 on October 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, on the 18th, the TDI market price in East China was 11033.33 yuan / ton, the market was weak, the downstream demand continued to be low, and the intention to take the goods was not good. Under the pressure of shipping, some enterprises made profits to ship, the actual transaction price was low, the overall downstream raw material inventory was too rich, the purchase and follow-up intention was particularly low, the market volume of trading was little heard, and the atmosphere was on the market The surrounding becomes more and more light. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills in East China is 10500-10700 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 10800-11000 yuan / ton. In terms of toluene, compared with the previous trading day, Sinopec’s South China enterprises today lowered the price of toluene by about 100 yuan / ton. The listing price of Shandong refining enterprises fell today, and the quotation of traders in East China fell. Affected by health concerns, the international crude oil market continued to fall last night, and the price of toluene in the domestic market also fell.

According to the analysis of the data division of the business club: at present, the atmosphere in the market tends to be cold, the downstream inventory is high, the demand continues to be low, the intention to take the goods is not good, the pressure of the enterprise’s shipment is large, the downstream market is less, and the transaction volume is insufficient. It is expected that the trend of domestic TDI market in the later stage is hard to be optimistic, and the company will pay close attention to the policy guidance of the later stage of the plant and the actual trading situation of the market.

1、 Price trend

On March 17, NBR commodity index was 70.64, unchanged from yesterday, 42.88% lower than the highest 123.67 points (2017-02-20) in the cycle, and 36.85% higher than the lowest 51.62 point on March 8, 2016 (Note: the cycle index is 2012-09-01 to now). According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of NBR was 15566 yuan / ton at the beginning of March, and 15000 yuan / ton as of March 17. Since March, the overall price has declined by 3.64%.

2、 Market trend analysis

In March, OPEC and OPEC + failed to negotiate on the reduction of crude oil production. Saudi Arabia and other countries continued to increase production, which led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, and formed a strong pressure on the entire chemical industry chain from the source. According to the business news agency, WTI’s April contract price fell to 28.69 US dollars / barrel on March 16 from 47.52 US dollars / barrel on March 2, down 39.63% on the whole.

The price of raw material butadiene acrylonitrile is lower, and the cost of butadiene acrylonitrile rubber is negative. On the one hand, the price of raw material acrylonitrile has declined sharply. According to the monitoring of the business association, the outgoing price of Shanghai Secco acrylonitrile was 8950 yuan / ton at the beginning of March, which was reduced to 8300 yuan / ton as of March 16; the outgoing price of Anqing Petrochemical acrylonitrile was reduced from 9500 yuan / ton at the beginning of March to 8500 yuan / ton as of March 16. On the other hand, the price of raw material butadiene fluctuates at a low level. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic butadiene has been in a low and slightly fluctuating trend since March, and as of March 16, the price of domestic butadiene was 6256 yuan / ton.

The number of domestic units returning to work and production is increasing gradually, and the downstream rubber hose and belt industries of nitrile are also returning to work, but the overall unit construction is still insufficient. According to the business association, at present, the return rate of downstream industry is close to 90%, but the overall operating rate is still not high, and the purchase of NBR is mostly on demand, with no significant breakthrough in the purchase volume.

3、 Future prospects

Business analysts believe that at present, on the one hand, crude oil, butadiene, acrylonitrile prices are still at a low level, from the cost of NBR formation negative. On the other hand, domestic enterprises return to work and production, and there is still room for demand to rise. According to the situation of upstream and downstream, in the later stage, the NBR was mainly subject to concussion.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc market has recently been adjusted by shocks, and the zinc price fell slightly in March. As of March 17, the spot price of zinc was 15756.67 yuan / ton, down 3% from 16243.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Zinc price fell slightly and zinc market was negative.

2、 Market trend analysis

Domestic zinc stock market

Time inventory (ton) change (ton)

March 17 96928 10043

March 13 86885 504

March 12 86381 1067

March 11 85314-2620

March 10 87934-552

March 9 88486 399

March 6 88087 1079

March 5 87008 669

March 4 86339 153

March 3 86186-233

March 2 86419 331

According to the data released by Shanghai futures market, zinc stock rose in March, and the growth rate of zinc stock slowed down significantly. With the gradual recovery of downstream construction, the demand of downstream is rising, and the demand of domestic zinc market is rising; although the domestic logistics and transportation are gradually recovering, the zinc ingot trade is generally not recovered from the previous market. Generally speaking, the supply of zinc is sufficient, and the demand has recovered in the near future. The supply of zinc exceeds the demand, and the market is negative.

Added value of industries above Designated Size dropped by 13.5% from January to February

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February, the added value of industries above Designated Size actually decreased by 13.5% year-on-year. From a month on month perspective, in February, the added value of industries above designated size decreased by 26.63% compared with the previous month. From the perspective of industry, from January to February, the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 8.5%, automobile manufacturing industry by 31.8%, railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry by 28.2%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry by 24.7%; from the perspective of products, from January to February, 10 non-ferrous metals by 9.35 million tons, up 2.2% year-on-year; 2.05 million vehicles, down 45.8%. From the data of industries and products, it can be seen that from January to February, the domestic non-ferrous metal smelting industry was less affected, and the non-ferrous metal production had a slight increase; however, the automobile manufacturing, railway, ship, infrastructure, machinery manufacturing and other industries were seriously affected, and these industries are the main users of zinc downstream, among which the automobile industry was directly cut back, down 45.8%, and the downstream demand for zinc ingots Sharp decline, negative for domestic zinc market.

Productivity trends of several zinc mines

Lunding mining company suspended construction and commissioning activities directly related to Neves Corvo zinc mine expansion project, with recovery time to be determined.

Implsora minera Santa Cruz, a mining company, decided to suspend the operation of the silver lead zinc mine of the same name in the state of sacatecas, Mexico, because the federal environmental protection agency is conducting an environmental investigation.

Silvercorp metals Inc (TSX: SVM), a silver lead zinc miner in Vancouver, Canada, said that up to now, its Ying mine in Henan Province, China and GC mine in Guangdong Province have recovered 94% of the planned capacity, and its inventory can meet the production demand for more than one month.

As the Italian government has now ordered, activities in all parts of the country will be restricted. Alta zinc has suspended drilling for the country’s gorno zinc project.

Zinc concentrate processing fee

Name: time of rise and fall of middle value of quotation

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Guangxi 6100-6300 6200 0 2020-3-16

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Hunan 6100-6300 6200-50 2020-3-16

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Yunnan 5900-6100 6000 0 2020-3-16

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Shaanxi 6100-6300 6200-50 2020-3-16

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Inner Mongolia 6300-6500 6400 0 2020-3-16

It can be seen from the table that the processing fee of zinc concentrate in March is about 6200-6400 yuan / metal ton. Although the processing fee has declined slightly in the near future, it is still high in general. Compared with the price of zinc ingot, the processing fee accounts for 40%. The proportion of zinc concentrate processing cost increased, the space for zinc ingot to fall decreased, and the pressure for zinc ingot to rise increased.

3、 Future prospects

Baijiaxin, an analyst of business association, thinks that in February, the domestic economic performance was weak, the demand for zinc ingots fell seriously, while the production of zinc ingots was less affected. In March, the processing fee of zinc concentrate remained high, the cost of zinc ingots remained high, the price of zinc ingots touched the cost line, and the space for zinc price to drop was limited. However, due to the fact that the demand for zinc is not getting better, although the national policy is favorable, the number of downstream enterprises returning to work is increasing in the near future, and the demand for zinc ingots is picking up, but the deterioration of the global economic situation, the global zinc market is seriously damaged, the short-term rise of domestic zinc market is difficult to offset the decline of international zinc market, the expected decline of global zinc market demand is serious, and the environment of domestic zinc market is getting better and the international environment is deteriorating Shock adjustment under pressure. At the same time, due to the serious overstock of zinc stock, it is expected that the zinc market in the future will be vulnerable to shocks and adjustments.

In March, the incident has spread to more than 100 countries, and medical protection materials have become scarce. In just half a month, isopropanol has soared, and the industry is optimistic about the future market. Recently, with the increase of isopropanol factory export orders, the operating rate has increased, driving the acetone market to stop falling and rise back.

With the spread of the epidemic in foreign countries, the demand for disinfectants has increased, and the export of isopropanol has greatly increased

In February, under the influence of public events in China, the disinfectant Market attracted much attention, including fine chemicals, 84 disinfectants, bleaching powder, chlorine effervescent tablets and other chlorine containing disinfectants, as well as chlorine dioxide, hydrogen peroxide, peroxyacetic acid and other peroxide disinfectants. The market activity of these products is relatively high. According to the monitoring data of the business association, the market performance of isopropanol after the festival is good. Isopropanol has the smell like the mixture of ethanol and acetone, and has a strong bactericidal ability. It is a medium effect disinfectant. In general, the scope of application of disinfection is the same as that of ethanol, and isopropanol can be used as a compound disinfectant instead of ethanol. However, due to the cost constraints, the impact of ethanol on isopropanol in the domestic disinfectant industry is large, and the impact of domestic social public events has not driven the domestic isopropanol market upward. On the contrary, when the domestic disinfectant supply is sufficient, the impact of transportation and other environment on isopropanol has dropped from 7100 yuan / ton before the festival to 5700 yuan / ton.

Up to now, with the expansion of the impact of foreign public events, the demand for disinfectants has surged, while some countries have restricted the import of alcohol, which has stimulated the export demand of isopropanol in China. At present, with the increase of export orders, the factory’s operating rate has greatly increased, and some factories have sealed their offers but not reported them. Traders have a positive attitude and can not stop their losses, According to the monitoring data of business agency, the daily price of March 17 was 7167 yuan / ton, an increase of 20% since March, and the price of South China rose to 7500 yuan / ton. However, compared with the price of FOB Rotterdam 1300 dollars / ton, there is still room for upward trend. At present, the development of international epidemic is still in the outbreak stage. From the perspective of time, the demand for disinfectants abroad will not weaken in April. If the export price remains favorable, the volume of isopropanol exports will continue to increase in the short term.

Isopropanol rose 20%, operating rate increased, and raw material acetone market pushed up

The demand for isopropanol in the disinfectant Market in Europe and America is unexpected. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the market of isopropanol has increased by 20%. What’s more unexpected is that the raw material acetone, for example, in East China market before the festival, is up to 5700 yuan / ton. After the Spring Festival, the market demand is low and the transportation is blocked. In February, the market in East China first fell below 5000 yuan / ton In March, a “black swan” followed, with crude oil plummeting by nearly 30%, causing heavy damage to the entire petrochemical sector, and acetone was also hard to escape. In a few trading days, the acetone market in East China fell to 4200 yuan / ton, with a view to breaking the “4″ market and saving the disinfection market. Up to now, East China has pushed up 600 yuan / ton in three trading days, while the acetone market has returned from the buyer’s market to the seller’s market overnight. According to the monitoring of the business agency, East China offers 4750 yuan / ton, Shandong and Yanshan offer 4450 yuan / ton, South China offers 4800 yuan / ton. Most of the traders who hold the goods sell obviously before, and hold a small amount of goods. According to the market development trend in the past month, the traders who store the goods before the festival have a serious loss. At present, there are many traders who are reluctant to sell obviously in order to hedge the loss, pushing up the market 。

To sum up, although isopropanol in terms of order quantity will not decrease in the export volume in the next month, but the price advantage is declining. Isopropanol is a medium effect disinfectant, and the price is on the high side. It can also be replaced in the disinfection market. At present, there are very few brilliant products in the whole chemical market, especially in the current international crude oil market, where there are frequent negative news and both supply and demand are negative, When the global petrochemical bulk market is in a downward trend, and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to zero, and the market is in a panic, except for medical supplies, it is difficult to find chemicals that go against the trend upward, the development of public events will be gradually controlled from the outbreak, and the demand for disinfectant imports of various countries will gradually enter a reasonable range. The business community expects that the isopropanol acetone market will continue to push up, but the space for pushing up It will never double the growth of mask market. At present, the isopropanol acetone market has attracted the attention of the chemical industry, taking the lead in the recovery of the petrochemical market, which led to the continued rise of the isopropanol acetone market in late March. The acetone market is expected to exceed 5000 yuan / ton, while the decline of other chemicals is slowing down.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the cobalt price fell precipitously this week, and the market speculation of the cobalt market continued. As of February 29, the price of cobalt was 258833.33 yuan / ton, down 4.90% compared with the average price of 272166.66 yuan / ton at the end of last week. This week, the panic mentality of cobalt market spread, and the price of cobalt fell off the cliff.

2、 The global stock market suffered an epic slump

The global market fell after a brief surge in January, and the U.S. stock market fell after hitting a new high in mid February. If the United States takes new year’s day as a starting point, by the end of March 12, the U.S. and European stock markets generally fell by more than 20%. The U.S. stock market broke twice in a week last week for the first time. On March 12, according to incomplete statistics, the stock markets of Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, Colombia, Sri Lanka and other 10 countries broke down. The global stock market plummeted, hitting the confidence of the global economic market greatly. The cobalt market also suffered from the plummeting attack. The panic spread. The confidence of the rising cobalt market was insufficient, and the pressure of the falling cobalt price was great.

3、 Mobile phone sales halved in February

According to the data released by China Academy of communications, in February 2020, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 6.384 million, a year-on-year decrease of 56.0%. From January to February 2020, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 27.197 million, a year-on-year decrease of 44.0%. In the first two months of 2020, the sales volume of domestic mobile phones halved. Although the country vigorously promoted 5g reduction, 5g is not perfect at this stage and can not replace 4G, and the demand for 5g has increased, but it is difficult to offset the decline of mobile phone market. The overall mobile phone market is relatively cold, the demand for mobile phones in a short period of time is good and limited, and the demand for cobalt market is negative, and the demand for cobalt Market in the future is under great pressure.

4、 International cobalt price trend

According to the trend of the LME market cobalt price last week, it can be seen that the LME cobalt price fell precipitously last week, the bearish attitude of the cobalt market rose, the international cobalt market was more bearish, and the domestic cobalt market was bearish.

5、 Sales of new energy passenger vehicles fell sharply

According to the data of China Automobile Association, in February, the total output of China’s new energy vehicle market was 9951, down 77.3% month on month, down 82.9% year on year; the total sales volume reached 12908, down 72.4% month on month, down 75.2% year on year. From January to February, the cumulative output of new energy vehicle market was 53840, down 63.8% year on year; the cumulative sales volume reached 59705, down 59.5% year on year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles fell sharply, which led to a significant reduction in the demand for cobalt and a large negative impact on the cobalt market. In the future, the expected demand for cobalt decreased, the positive effect of the cobalt Market weakened, and the negative effect increased.

6、 Future prospects

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business club, from the perspective of demand, the demand of cobalt market declined significantly in February, and the production and sales of mobile phone manufacturers cut short, which was bad for cobalt Market; the production and sales of new energy vehicles almost fell to the ground, and the demand for cobalt market was even colder. The objective demand reduction is bad for the cobalt market, and the cobalt price has lost the support of rising power. With the improvement of China’s domestic economy, the cobalt market should have risen with the good news. However, the epic collapse of the international stock market has hit the confidence of the market, the fear of the global economic crisis and the spread of economic weakness, which have severely hit the confidence of the cobalt market. After the demand of the cobalt market, it is expected to fall sharply. In the short term, the pressure of the decline of the cobalt market is great. In the long term, 5g can still bring new demand for the cobalt market Energy vehicles are still an irresistible trend in the future, and there is still room for the long-term cobalt market to rise. However, the poor performance of the global economic environment has delayed the improvement of the cobalt Market and delayed the rise cycle of the cobalt market.