1、 Trend analysis

On August 3, spot copper decreased slightly, and the current price was 50931.67 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 1.84% compared with the previous trading day, a rise of 3.87% over the beginning of the year, and a year-on-year increase of 9.62%. LME copper’s 3-month contract rebounded after falling $6301 at the opening, and closed at $6385.5, up 0.12%. Shanghai copper’s main contract quickly dived to 50210 yuan in the early morning, then stabilized and rebounded. In the end, it narrowed down to 51050 yuan, or 1.49%.

Affected by Sino US relations last Friday, the nonferrous metals plate made a comprehensive adjustment. The accumulation of stocks in the domestic market in the off-season began, and the pattern of monthly difference correction was gradually adjusted. The registered warehouse receipts of LME copper market dropped to a low level, and the domestic Guangdong stock rose sharply again, approaching the 50000 mark and reaching the highest level in the same period in history. The imported copper is favored by the market due to its sufficient supply and low price. August into the consumption off-season, downstream orders decreased significantly, consumer buying is difficult to lead. However, some copper rod factories finished maintenance, and this part of the demand rebounded.

In view of the above situation, the economic recovery is expected to help boost market sentiment. As Chile and other major producers are still seriously affected by the epidemic, the market is still worried about the supply situation in the second half of the year. However, the consumption in August is affected by the off-season, and it is expected that the short-term high-level copper level will fluctuate.

1、 Price trend

The average price of TDI market in East China on March 3 was 11833.33 yuan / ton, up 5.97% compared with yesterday and 16.47% lower than last year, according to the data from the bulk list of business associations. On August 3, the TDI commodity index was 62.61, up 3.53 points compared with yesterday, 74.76% lower than 248.02 points (2016-10-19), and 19.12% higher than 52.56 points, the lowest point on May 5, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

Last week, suppliers intensively released good news. Under the export increment, the on-site supply was tight, and the factory supply was tight. The domestic TDI market hit the bottom and rebounded, and the on-site rise was obvious. The weekly guidance price was greatly increased. Most dealers followed the factory’s offer and reached a high level. On August 3, the dealer’s price increased by 500-1000 yuan / ton. At present, the East China market is on the rise in a narrow range, and the manufacturers are making more offers at a high level. The downstream companies are mainly waiting for follow-up. As of the 3rd day, the reference for outbound offer of domestic goods with bill of lading in East China is 11500-12300 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai is 11800-12500 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, the market situation of toluene rebounded slightly. Affected by the lower demand for blended oil and solvent in the downstream, the demand for toluene declined, the trading atmosphere was not active, the port inventory remained high, and the progress of destocking was slow. The overall digestion of early inventory was dominated, the market trading atmosphere was weak, and a small amount of just needed replenishment. Considering the impact of economic recovery on crude oil demand and the trend of international crude oil, in the later stage The domestic toluene market may fluctuate slightly.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the Data Engineer of the business agency, at present, the domestic TDI market is in a strong trend, the market supply is tight, the manufacturer’s offer is high, the dealers also follow the factory’s quotation, and the supplier is supported by good news. It is expected that the domestic TDI market will continue to rise in the future, and pay attention to the policy guidance of the city’s factories.

Commodity index: on July 31, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 82.89, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new historical low in the cycle, which was 22.63% lower than the highest point of 107.13 on May 8, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Price quotation: data shows that polyacrylamide in July showed a slight downward trend compared with the market at the end of June. In the first half of the month, many companies cut prices, but the overall range is not very large; in the second half of the month, the number of enterprises that adjust prices is smaller, but the adjustment of single enterprise is greater, which is different from the first half of the month. On July 1, 2020, the mainstream market quotation was 13960 yuan / ton, which was about 60 yuan / ton lower than the average price of 14020 yuan / ton on June 30. On the 14th of this month, it was about 13920 yuan / ton, and it was about 40 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of this month. In the first half of this month, it was slightly reduced by 0.29%, but by 0.71% compared with the end of last month. In the second half of the month, 13600 yuan / ton was quoted on 16th, and 13566.67 yuan / ton was quoted on 31st, with a very small reduction in half a month Less than 1%.

Factor analysis:

First of all, from the perspective of industrial chain. Upstream acrylonitrile: from January to June 2020, the domestic market price will drop sharply first, and then it will continue to adjust to a certain extent. Since the second half of April, it stopped falling at 6350 yuan / ton. After stabilizing for half a month, it started to rebound from May. The half month quotation went up by 800 yuan / ton to 7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation in the second half of the month was about 8000 yuan / ton. In June, it was stable at around 8550 yuan / ton in the middle of June, and continued to rise in the last ten days, with the highest value reaching about 8800-8900 yuan / ton, and then it was adjusted back to 8400 yuan / ton at the end of the month. In July, the price of acrylonitrile continued to fall. On the 13th, the price of acrylonitrile had dropped by about 1100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation had fallen to 7300 yuan / ton. In the second half of the month, the price continued to rise, especially at the end of the month, which was 7600 yuan / ton on the 31st daily. Among them, Fushun Petrochemical’s 92000 T / a acrylonitrile was shut down for maintenance on July 23, and resumed on July 28, with 80% of the start-up maintenance. 2. The 130000 T / a acrylonitrile plant of Shandong Haijiang Chemical Co., Ltd. is planned to shut down at the beginning of August, or last for about one month. Shanghai Secco acrylonitrile plant plans to overhaul a production line in late August, with an estimated loss of about 3000 tons. The acrylonitrile plant in srbon was shut down on July 16 and is expected to restart before and after August 5. Asahi Asahi’s Far East contract proposal price in August implemented $1090 / T CFR, down $50 / T from last month.. Downstream demand: the demand for polyacrylamide has not improved greatly this year, and the manufacturers have great sales pressure. Due to the comprehensive influence of demand and cost, the prices of several polyacrylamide manufacturers have been reduced slightly from month to month.

Secondly, the manufacturer production angle. According to the survey, Henan Province, one of the main producing areas of polyacrylamide, has normal production and high inventory. On July 1, many manufacturers lowered the price of main specification products. Although the range was small, the number of price adjustment was more. In the first half of the month, some manufacturers had a second small reduction. Some manufacturers’ prices remained stable, and the number of price adjustments in the second half of the month was reduced, but some enterprises’ price adjustments were larger, But it is because of the sales strategy that is adjusted down and back. Current price: cationic: molecular weight 12 million (10-30 ionic degree), 13000-15000 yuan / ton; anion: molecular weight 10 million yuan / ton, 6800-9600 yuan / ton, molecular weight 12 million yuan / ton, molecular weight 14 million yuan / ton, solid particles 9000-11500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 16 million solid particles 9600-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 18 million solid particles 10400-11000 yuan / ton, The molecular weight of 18-20 million powdery products is 12000-12500 yuan / ton; non-ionic: about 12000-13000 yuan / ton; in general, manufacturers generally lower the lowest price by about 100-200 yuan / ton, and the overall reduction range is different. Some specifications of some manufacturers have been reduced by 1000 yuan / ton. The sales pressure of enterprise production and distribution manufacturers is huge, which is helpless for the current situation, and the price downward space is very small.

Thirdly, industry perspective. Since 2020, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry is poor. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products in line with the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determines the price and cost, which has different impact on the production cost. As far as the whole industry is concerned, the cost reduction and the demand for The difference is to determine the market trend, this month the market is still weak in stability.

Future forecast:

According to the analysis of the business agency, the cost has risen first and then up, and the demand side has not improved greatly. In the second half of the year, the development of water treatment industry is difficult, and the future market is still mainly stable, with small flexible adjustment. With the economic situation in the third quarter expected to be better, the recovery of water treatment industry demand can also be expected.

Commodity index: on July 31, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 82.89, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new historical low in the cycle, which was 22.63% lower than the highest point of 107.13 on May 8, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

The data showed that polyacrylamide decreased slightly in the last week of July. In the first half of the month, many companies cut prices, the overall range is not very large; in the second half of the month, the number of price adjustment enterprises is less, but the adjustment of single enterprise is greater. On July 27, 2020, the mainstream market quotation was 13600 yuan / ton, and on July 31, it was 13566.67 yuan / ton, with a slight decrease of 0.25% this week. Domestic mainstream quotation: cationic: molecular weight 12 million (10-30 ionic degree) quotation 13000-15000 yuan / ton; anion: molecular weight 10 million yuan / ton 6800-9600 yuan / ton, molecular weight 12 million yuan 7800-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 14 million solid particles 9000-11500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 16 million solid particles 9600-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 18 million solid particles 10400-11000 yuan/ Tons, molecular weight 18-20 million, powdery offer 12000-12500 yuan / ton; non-ionic: about 12000-13000 yuan / ton.

The price of upstream acrylonitrile has been raised by 50-100 yuan / ton for consecutive days this week, especially in the last few days of the month. The price of acrylonitrile in the 31 daily report increased by about 300 yuan / ton at 7600 yuan / ton. Plant performance: Fushun Petrochemical’s 92000 T / a acrylonitrile was shut down for maintenance on July 23, and restarted on July 28, with 80% of the plant operating. 2. The 130000 T / a acrylonitrile plant of Shandong Haijiang Chemical Co., Ltd. is planned to shut down at the beginning of August, or last for about one month. Shanghai Secco acrylonitrile plant plans to overhaul a production line in late August, with an estimated loss of about 3000 tons. The acrylonitrile plant in srbon was shut down on July 16 and is expected to restart before and after August 5. Asahi Asahi’s Far East contract proposal price in August implemented $1090 / T CFR, down $50 / T from last month.. In terms of downstream demand, the demand for polyacrylamide has not improved, and the boosting effect on the price has not appeared.

From the perspective of industry, since 2020, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry is poor. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products in line with the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determines the price and cost, which has different impact on the production cost. As far as the whole industry is concerned, the cost reduction and the demand for The difference is to determine the market trend, this month the market is still weak in stability.

In terms of the future market, the analysis by the business agency shows that the cost of polyacrylamide has been up first and then up, and the demand side has not improved greatly. In the second half of the year, the development of water treatment industry is difficult, and the future market is still mainly stable with small flexible adjustment. In the third quarter, the economic situation is expected to be better, and the demand for polyacrylamide is improved, the price may become stronger, but at present, it is still a little far away.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price trend of cryolite market in July was stable and upward. The average market price at the end of the month was about 5833.33 yuan / ton, up 2.94% in the month compared with 5666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 7.89% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the cryolite market is running steadily. The manufacturers start normal equipment, and the inventory is fair. The downstream demand is stable. The manufacturers sell according to the order, and the market is stable. At present, the price of cryolite in Henan Province is increased by 300 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price is 5300-6000 yuan / ton. The price of cryolite in Shandong Province is temporarily stable, and the ex factory quotation is 5000-6800 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is flexible and mainly through negotiation.

On the upstream side, the price trend of domestic fluorite market decreased slightly. At the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2800 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.4% compared with 2811.11 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. At present, the domestic fluorite manufacturers are operating stably, the supply is normal, and the downstream demand is weak. They mainly purchase on demand, and the situation of fluorite in the yard is general. It is expected that the fluorite market will be weak in the future, and the specific market demand will be watched. In terms of downstream electrolytic aluminum, the increase of terminal downstream consumption in the second half of the year may lead to a warmer demand for electrolytic aluminum. The new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places is also expected to be large. It is expected that the operation will be stronger in the later stage, which will bring benefits to the cryolite market demand.

3、 Future forecast

Cryolite product analysts of business agency believe that: at present, cryolite enterprises are operating normally, manufacturers’ inventory is acceptable, and downstream demand is gradually rising. It is expected that the cryolite market will be stable and upward in the future.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of July 30, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 11900 yuan / ton, which was basically stable compared with the price on the first day of this month; compared with the price on June 1, the average price increased by 733 yuan / ton, or 6.57%. On July 29, the n-propanol commodity index was 100.63, flat with yesterday, down 0.59% from 101.23 (December 12, 2013), and 27.62% higher than the lowest point of 78.85 on November 05, 2015. (Note: period refers to December 1, 2013 to now)

Raw material support demand can maintain stable operation of n-propanol

At the end of the month, the domestic n-propanol market was stable, and some dealers adjusted their prices according to the narrow inventory. At present, the downstream demand is fair, the overall inventory of n-propanol is low, the market mentality is good, and the business offer is mainly stable. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, on July 30, the ex factory price of n-propanol purified water in Shandong was around 10500-11000 yuan / ton, the rare high quotation was 11500 yuan / ton, and the barreled packaging was around 11300-11600 yuan / ton; the bulk water in Nanjing was around 10800-11100 yuan / ton. In Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., the normal operation of n-propanol production unit was normal, and n-propanol was offered to the public for 11000 yuan / T (bulk water), and the price was the same as that at the beginning of the month. Dealers in different regions still have reservation on the price. It is not easy to monitor the price. As a result, the specific negotiation situation may be different. There are differences in each region. The actual negotiation is the main one. The future market needs to wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment.

In terms of raw materials, July is coming to an end. On the end of the month, the ethylene market declined after a small rise, and the overall market fell compared with the beginning of the month, but it was still at a high level compared with the market in the second quarter, which gave support to the cost of n-propanol. At present, on the 28th, the US ethylene market FD US Gulf quoted us $339-357 / T. in recent years, the US ethylene market is mainly volatile consolidation, and the market demand has improved. In the later period, the market change is mainly affected by the small rise of upstream crude oil, which may be dominated by the rise. The market of ethylene in Asia is stable, CFR Northeast Asia offers 795-805 US dollars / ton, CFR Southeast Asia offers 710-720 US dollars / ton, the demand is fair.

In terms of process, there are mainly three methods of n-propanol production, i.e. ethylene carbonyl synthesis, allyl alcohol hydrogenation and isopropanol recovery.

Ethylene carbonyl synthesis method: this process uses ethylene, syngas and hydrogen as raw materials to produce propionaldehyde by low pressure carbonylation synthesis process, and then produces n-propanol by gas phase hydrogenation process, which is the mainstream production process of n-propanol at present.

Allyl alcohol hydrogenation method: allyl alcohol is hydroformylated to form 4-hydroxybutyraldehyde, and then hydrogenated to 1,4-butanediol and by-product n-propanol. The production capacity of n-propanol by this method is small.

Isopropanol recovery method: when propylene is directly hydrated to prepare isopropanol, the by-product is n-propanol, from which n-propanol is recovered. This method is similar to allyl alcohol hydrogenation method, and is also a by-product n-propanol, but the n-propanol recovered by this method is less and the production capacity is smaller.

Each of the three production technologies has its own advantages and disadvantages. The ethylene carbonyl synthesis method is the most advanced production technology of n-propanol in the world, and it is also the mainstream production technology in the world. In fact, the other two methods are in essence n-propanol from other main products, so the production capacity is small and it is not suitable for large-scale industrialization.

The supply and demand is relatively stable, and then the trend is stable

At present, the supply and demand of domestic n-propanol market is relatively balanced, the production and operation are normal, and the cost of domestic n-propanol is improved. It is expected that the market fluctuation will be limited in the short term. The analysts of the n-propanol industry in the business community believe that the domestic n-propanol price is mainly stable in the near future, and the quotation of the secondary market may be adjusted in a narrow range. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the cost of raw materials and the shipping situation.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, affected by the shortage of market supply, the domestic acetic acid market fluctuated higher in July. As of July 30, the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2633 yuan / ton, an increase of 12.86% compared with 2333 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. At present, there are 2600-2650 yuan / ton in Shandong, 2500-2600 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 2600-2700 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 2400 yuan / ton in Henan, 2600-2650 yuan / ton in Hebei and 2250 yuan / ton in Northwest China.

Unit capacity (10000 t / a) unit output (T / D)

Yankuang Guotai 110.3000

Hualu Hengsheng: 50.1500, planned to overhaul for 25 days on 8.3

Yangzi BP 50 parking

Jiangsu Sopu 120.3000

Celanese 1200 2000

Jiantao, Hebei, 50.1400

Tianjin Bohua 35 700

Henan Shunda 40.1400

Henan Longyu 50.1500

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi Yanchang 30.1000

Shanghai Huayi 70.1800

Anhui Huayi 50.1300

Dalian Hengli 35.1100

At the beginning of this month, enterprises in East China and North China gradually reduced the load of inspection and repair. In addition, at the beginning of the month, most enterprises focused on delivery contracts, which led to the shortage of spot supply of acetic acid in East China, and the enterprises raised their prices successively. After the middle of the month, due to the completion of enterprise maintenance and the recovery of production, the supply in the future market was expected to increase, resulting in certain fluctuations in the market, and the price was small The price of acetic acid rose back to the highest price of 2683 yuan / ton in the month (average price in East China). Near the end of the month, the demand of downstream market slowed down and the market transaction was light. Some enterprises lowered the price to reduce the follow-up inventory, with a drop of about 50 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream market and tourism market, methanol market fluctuated downward, maintenance enterprises in Northwest China gradually recovered, enterprises and port inventory increased, spot price of methanol continued to decline, at present, about 1622 yuan / ton. On the downstream side, the prices of vinyl acetate, acetate and other downstream industries of acetic acid are firm due to the high level of raw materials, but the overall market start-up is not high, the demand is flat, the price support for acetic acid is insufficient, and the downturn in the terminal market leads to the situation of oversupply in the industry; the PTA market put into operation new equipment in July, the terminal demand is weak, the supply increases, the inventory is high, the fundamentals are under negative pressure, and the price shocks Swing down, the end of the end of the cost support and terminal demand bargain purchase, tail showed a small recovery.

In terms of the international market, the performance of the Asian acetic acid market as a whole is fair due to the strong price in China, and the current quotation is about 300-360 US dollars / ton; the European market is generally stable, and the demand for acetic acid is fair, which is about 540 euro / T; the North American market is slightly driven by the Asian market, with the current price of about 455 US dollars / ton.

The acetic acid analysts of the business club believe that the current domestic acetic acid market is at a high level and weak. In early August, Yangtze BP will restart, the spot supply of the market is stable, and the downstream acetate Market has a certain loss. The overall stock in July is relatively sufficient, the market transaction is flat, and the operators are obviously bearish on the acetic acid market. Hualu Hengsheng plans to start a 25 day overhaul on August 3, which may lead to the market There was some fluctuation in supply. The acetic acid market is expected to be stable and soft in a short period of time. Pay attention to whether the enterprise maintenance can provide good support.

Magnesium market trend

On July 30, 2020, the price of magnesium ingot (99.9%, no pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas of China will run smoothly, with the overall range of 12800-13100 yuan / ton, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

The specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu district is 12800-13000 yuan / ton; Taiyuan is 12900-13000 yuan / ton; Wenxi district is 13000-13100 yuan / ton; Ningxia is 12800-12950 yuan / ton.

The magnesium ingot is the original magnesium ingot of national standard (GB / t3499-2011); it is not pickled, has no wooden pallet and does not pay the acceptance price, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of the domestic market on the 30th was 12933.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.72% compared with the average price of 13433.33 yuan / ton in the market at the beginning of July (7.1), and 14166.67 yuan / ton in the market at the beginning of the year (1.1), a decrease of 8.71%. In recent years, the price of magnesium ingot is stable, and the quotation of mainstream production area is basically unchanged.

In 2020, the price of magnesium ingot will decline all the way. Since the middle of April, the price fluctuation tends to be stable, and the quotation range is between 12800-13400 yuan / ton.

The rebound of magnesium ingot price is weak, mainly due to the drag of overseas demand.

According to the data of the General Administration of customs, from January to June 2020, the export volume of magnesium products with six tax codes totaled 208000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.50%, and the total export amount reached 492 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 18.86%;

Among them, the export volume of magnesium ingot was 114400 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%.

The cost of magnesium ingot is stable or normal on the base and demand side

At present, the price of magnesium ingot is relatively low, and the mainstream transaction price in the market has approached 12850 yuan / T. due to the influence of cost factors, the willingness of mainstream manufacturers to stand up for prices has increased. Due to the obstruction at the export end, domestic customers just need to purchase, and middlemen purchase sporadically, fast in and fast out, so it is difficult for the demand side to improve significantly in the short term; supply pressure still exists in the short term.

After the price of magnesium ingot fell in July, it began to stabilize recently. It is learned that at present, there is not much trading in the market. Domestic downstream manufacturers have relatively sufficient stock in the early stage. At present, they basically purchase on demand and have little willingness to stock up in large quantities. Due to the influence of cost factors, magnesium ingot manufacturers are willing to reduce the price and promote sales, and the willingness to stop production and repair is relatively higher, and the market supply-demand game tends to be stable. It is expected that some factories will shut down for maintenance in the later stage, and the magnesium price at the supply side will be favorable to some extent. However, based on the reality of weak demand, it is expected that the later stage will run smoothly or become normal. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the change of downstream purchasing rhythm.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, affected by high market cost, the East China ethyl acetate Market rose steadily in July. As of July 29, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 5600 yuan / ton, up 1.13% compared with the beginning of the month and 2.42% higher than the same period of last month.

This month, the domestic ethyl acetate market started stable as a whole, and the spot supply was sufficient, but the downstream market was in the off-season, and the purchase of ethyl acetate was limited, and the market supply exceeded the demand. However, due to the high production cost of enterprises, the price of ethyl acetate passively followed.

In terms of raw materials, the acetic acid market remained high in the month. Affected by the negative impact of enterprise maintenance, the spot supply in the market was tight, and the enterprises had a good attitude of keeping up prices. At present, it was in a wait-and-see situation after the rise. However, with the expected increase of future supply, the long-term outlook may be downward. The high level of ethanol market is strong, and the price rise of raw material corn supports the rise of ethanol price. At present, most enterprises mainly consume the stock purchased in the early stage, and the price of ethanol slows down. At present, the price of ethanol is about 6150 yuan / ton.

Internationally, the overall performance of international ethyl acetate is relatively stable, among which the port price of European market is about 750 euro / ton; the port price of North American market is about 610-660 US dollars / ton.

According to the analysts of ethyl acetate of the business club, the oversupply of domestic ethyl acetate market continues to intensify, and the main reason for the high price is the high production cost. In the future market, we need to pay attention to the price fluctuation of acetic acid and ethanol market, and it is expected to be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of liquefied natural gas on July 29 was 2463.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, increased by 0.82% compared with the beginning of the month, increased by 0.14% month on month, and decreased by 23.81% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In July, the domestic LNG market rose slightly, but the price was always hovering at a low level with limited fluctuation, and the way up was extremely difficult. At the beginning of the month, the price was running smoothly. Since the middle of the month, due to the high inventory of the liquid plant in the early stage, the manufacturer reduced the price to clear the warehouse, and the shipment was improved. At the same time, considering the cost, the enterprise adjusted the price according to the trend, but the increase was not large, and the price adjustment range was mostly within 50 yuan. After the rise, it faced the situation of callback, and the price was in a sticky state, with a dilemma. Near the end of the month, the market is relatively calm, affected by special events in Xinjiang, shipment pressure, price down. At present, the supply side is still in a relaxed state. In terms of early maintenance enterprises, Huanggang, Hubei Province, etc. shut down. The surrounding areas are supported by this favorable situation, and the prices rise. However, the demand in the off-season consumption is not high, and it is difficult to boost the market by suppressing part of the demand by superimposing the plum rain season in the south. In the short term, the trend of domestic LNG market tends to be stable and mainly fluctuates in a narrow range.

The following are some maintenance enterprises for reference:

Recovery plan for the change of plant capacity (10000 m3 / D)

Hubei Huanggang 500 was shut down on the 24th and the sales on the 26th, scheduled for 30-40 days of maintenance

Inner Mongolia Zhengtai Yida 300, shut down for maintenance on July 24, planned 10-15 days

Heilongjiang Sanju longpeng 18 July 20 to be closed

Shuntianda in Yangcheng, Shanxi Province – shut down on the 23rd and stop selling on the 24th for about 20 days

Shouyang, Shanxi Province: 50 July 28th to be closed

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of July 29, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was about 2460 yuan / ton, that of Inner Mongolia was about 2470 yuan / ton, that of Shaanxi was 2480 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi was 2490 yuan / ton, and that of Xinjiang was 3200 yuan / ton.

Enterprise capacity (10000 m3 / D) up and down from July 29 to July 1

Inner Mongolia Shitai 55 2430 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton 30 yuan

Star energy 100 2460 yuan / ton 2450 yuan / ton 10 yuan

Inner Mongolia Sentai 120 2520 yuan / ton 2470 yuan / ton 50 yuan

Zhongyuan green energy 300 2500 yuan / ton 2480 yuan / ton 20 yuan

Shengdazizhou: 1002480 yuan / ton—

Dazhou Huixin: 100 2750 yuan / ton: 2750 yuan / ton

Ningxia Hongxing 100 2580 yuan / ton 2500 yuan / ton 80 yuan

Qinshui Xinao — 2400 yuan / ton 2460 yuan / ton – 60 yuan

Xinjiang Qinghua ￥ 30 3200 / T ￥ 3700 / T-500

The downstream methanol market is in a narrow range. In the later stage, the port inventory will accumulate again, and the high inventory will continue to suppress the methanol price; in the early stage, some maintenance devices have been resumed and restarted, and the supply side is expected to increase in the near future; the inventory of some downstream enterprises is on the high side, and the downstream market is not able to catch up with the high price, and the overall transaction atmosphere becomes weak, so it is expected that the domestic methanol market may decline in the short term.

Liquid ammonia, domestic liquid ammonia Market Trend differentiation, some areas of the price downward range is larger, such as the main production area of Shandong prices fell significantly, Hebei region followed the Shandong market also downward. It is expected that with the resumption of production of some urea plants in the future market, the amount of ammonia in Shandong can be effectively controlled, and the price may stabilize and rebound. Other regions, such as Hebei, are also expected to rise. Affected by the balance of supply and demand, the price of liquid ammonia in Northeast and Northwest China is likely to maintain stability.

In the last ten days of July, the market situation of urea in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. Urea analysts from the business club believe that the current agricultural demand is low, and the downstream industry is generally enthusiastic about urea procurement. Although there is support from the printing mark, the support is weak, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

Recently, the dichloromethane market in Shandong has been rising steadily. As of the 29th, the mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market is 2230-2280 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of chloroform market is about 1950 yuan / ton. At present, the supply of dichloromethane market is limited, and the demand of downstream market is fair, but it is still flat in the long term, and it is expected to rise slightly in the short term. At present, the upstream liquid chlorine market is high and firm, which supports the price of methane chloride well; the overall purchasing demand of downstream market is flat, and the game between supply and demand is strong.

3、 Future forecast

LNG analysts from the business club believe that: the domestic LNG market rose as a whole in July. However, the rising space in the off-season consumption is limited, and the price is always hovering at a low level. In the short term, it is expected that the price will remain low and stable. With the maintenance plan of some liquid plants in the future market, the on-site supply will decrease, which may boost the market and usher in a wavelet upward trend.