Following the National Day holiday, the market price of acrylonitrile fluctuated upward due to strong cost-push factors. By October 9, the mainstream negotiated price for off-site self-pickup in the East China market remained firm at around 11,000 yuan per ton, while the mainstream negotiated price for regional delivery in the Shandong market gradually rebounded from the downward trend during the holiday period, currently hovering near 10,800 yuan per ton.
Supply is ample:
During the week, Zhejiang Petrochemical increased its operating load to 90%, while the annual capacity of 130,000 tons at Sinopec Tianjin was successfully put into production, contributing to the total domestic acrylonitrile capacity. The overall domestic acrylonitrile production capacity reached 5.709 million tons annually, with a significant increase in supply. According to statistics, the domestic acrylonitrile industry’s production capacity utilization rate reached 75.30% this week (October 2-8), up 2.46% from the previous week; weekly production was approximately 89,900 tons, an increase of 490 tons compared to the previous week. The weekly supply increment, coupled with slower local shipments during the holiday period, led to rising inventories at some enterprises. On October 8, the total domestic acrylonitrile factory inventory was around 45,000 tons, up 4,500 tons from the previous week.
Average demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rates of major downstream industries showed limited improvement. ABS utilization stood at 55.2%, up 0.1% from the previous week; acrylic fiber producers maintained a utilization rate of 70.38%, unchanged from last week; and acrylamide capacity utilization reached 55.4%, increasing by 0.74% compared to the prior week.
Cost increase:
After the holiday, the prices of major raw materials—propylene and synthetic ammonia—rose significantly. As a result, although the price of acrylonitrile has shown an upward trend, the increase is still lower than that of the raw materials, leading to a gradual worsening of single-product production losses. According to statistics, as of October 8, the mainstream closing price of propylene in Shandong was 9,980-10,170 yuan/ton, with an average of 10,075 yuan/ton. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 12,699 yuan/ton, up 3.80% month-on-month. During the same period, the average production profit of acrylonitrile was -1,598 yuan/ton, down 465 yuan/ton month-on-month.
Posterior Forecast: The cost pressure persists, with suppliers maintaining firm prices and spot prices rising. The acrylonitrile industry’s capacity utilization rate remains at 73.7%. This market rebound is primarily driven by cost factors, as producers face worsening losses and strong price-holding intentions. However, there is no significant near-term demand growth expected, particularly as the ABS industry continues to operate at low loads. The supply-demand imbalance remains weak, which will still constrain the market’s rebound potential. Supply-side developments warrant close attention.
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