LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 9390 yuan/ton on October 1st and 9950 yuan/ton on October 13th, an increase of 5.96%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 12133 yuan/ton on October 1st and 12733 yuan/ton on October 13th, an increase of 4.95%. HDPE (5000S) had an average price of 10475 yuan/ton on October 1st and 11087 yuan/ton on October 13th, accounting for 5.85%.
Geopolitical factors support high crude oil prices, and the external market for ethylene is relatively strong, providing cost support for PE. The continuous compression of profits in oil refining and chemical industry has hindered the upward transmission of costs, making it difficult to drive the market to soar alone.
Domestic PE production remains at a moderate level, with maintenance facilities gradually restarting and production gradually recovering. New production capacity continues to be released, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter has increased month on month. After the holiday, the social inventory has slightly accumulated, but the overall inventory is still low, which provides support for spot goods in the short term.
The current agricultural film has entered the traditional peak season, and the release of orders for greenhouse film and mulching film has mainly driven the formation of polyethylene. Packaging and hollow products have slightly rebounded, but there has been limited improvement in areas such as pipes and injection molding. Downstream consumers are resistant to high priced raw materials, mostly due to immediate demand and weak willingness to actively stockpile, resulting in limited support during peak seasons.
After the holiday, PE quickly rose and is likely to enter a high volatility in the short term. The support for the peak season of agricultural film is gradually weakening, coupled with the release of new production capacity, and there is insufficient motivation to continue the significant increase. If there is no significant increase in crude oil prices in the future, there is a risk of the price center falling back.
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