1、 Market Trend Overview

This week, the melamine market showed the characteristics of high price stability and gradually slowing down transactions. According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of melamine reached 9450.00 yuan/ton on April 2nd, an increase of 0.27% from the beginning of this month, continuing the strong upward trend in the previous period and entering a stage of stabilization. From the price curve, the price of melamine began a rapid upward trend in mid to late March, with a significant increase in just one month. Although it remained high in early April, there were signs of marginal weakness in the transaction end, and downstream resistance to high priced goods gradually emerged.
From the perspective of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the current positions of melamine on the 10th, 20th, and 30th are all marked as high, and the moving average system shows a bullish trend with a clear short-term upward trend, but the characteristics of high volatility are highlighted. At the same time, the price on that day has doubled compared to the low point of 5375.00 yuan/ton this year, and the price is in the historical high range. The upward momentum is gradually shifting from “unilateral rise” to “high-level game”.
2、 Slow down driving factors
Demand side:
The current price of melamine has exceeded the 9000 yuan/ton mark, far exceeding the cost tolerance threshold of downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings. As prices continue to rise, the pace of downstream enterprises replenishing inventory has significantly slowed down, shifting from “chasing price increases and stocking up” to “sporadic purchases on demand”. The scale of new orders has shrunk, and market wait-and-see sentiment has intensified, which is the core reason for the slowdown in transactions this week.
Supply side:
In the early stage, the operating rate of the melamine industry remained low, coupled with factors such as equipment maintenance and environmental inspections, the market supply was tight, and manufacturers had a strong willingness to sell at high prices. However, as prices continue to rise, some production enterprises are gradually resuming operations, and pending orders are gradually being delivered, resulting in an increase in spot circulation and a marginal weakening of the supply side’s support for prices.
Cost side:
Although the price of urea, the core raw material of melamine, remains high, the increase this week has narrowed, and the fluctuation of international LNG prices has stabilized. Although the cost transmission chain of “methanol → urea → melamine” is supported, it no longer shows the strong upward trend in the previous period. The cost side’s driving force for melamine has shifted from “strong pull” to “weak support”.
3、 Price trend prediction (based on the Business Society commodity market analysis system)
Based on the current market supply and demand, cost, and transaction situation, predict the subsequent price trend of melamine in three stages:
Short term (1-2 weeks): High volatility, slight rise or stability maintenance
In the short term, there has been no significant easing of geopolitical conflicts, the tight global fertilizer supply pattern has not reversed, and the support on the raw material side is still present; At the same time, production enterprises still have stock of pending orders, and their willingness to raise prices has not completely subsided. It is expected that the price of melamine will fluctuate at a high level in the range of 9400-9800 yuan/ton, and it is not ruled out that there may be a slight upward trend, but it is difficult for there to be a significant increase in trading volume, and the magnitude of the increase is limited.

Mid term (within one month): The risk of high-level decline intensifies, and prices gradually decline
If downstream resistance to high prices continues to ferment and transactions shrink further, coupled with some companies resuming production and increasing supply, the supply-demand contradiction will gradually ease. Meanwhile, if the geopolitical situation eases and international urea and LNG prices fall, the logic of cost support will weaken. At that time, the price of melamine may experience a pullback, with an expected range of 8500-9000 yuan/ton, and the high premium will gradually be absorbed.
Long term (1-3 months): Return to fundamentals, range oscillation operation
In the long run, the pattern of overcapacity in melamine production has not fundamentally changed, and domestic demand is mainly driven by rigid demand. Although exports have increased, it is difficult to make up for the domestic demand gap. The cost side will return to rationality, and the market will break away from the influence of geopolitical risk premiums and return to the fundamentals of supply and demand. It is expected that the price will fluctuate within the range of 7500-8500 yuan/ton, showing an overall trend of “high-level decline and stable operation”.
In summary, it is necessary to focus on the trend of raw material urea prices, changes in the operating rate of the melamine industry, the operating rate and transaction data of downstream board industries, and the dynamic geopolitical situation in the Middle East (affecting global fertilizer supply). If the geopolitical conflict continues to escalate and raw material prices rise again, it may lead to melamine prices remaining at a high level beyond expectations; If downstream demand recovers rapidly, transactions rebound, or the pace of price correction is slowed down; If new domestic production capacity is released in a concentrated manner, the pressure of oversupply will become prominent, and the price correction may exceed expectations.

In March 2026, the global cobalt market showed a trend of “high-level solidification and narrow range oscillation”, with domestic spot and overseas futures prices overall maintaining high levels. The core is influenced by multiple factors such as the implementation of quotas in the Democratic Republic of Congo, geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand structural differentiation, and macro logistics costs. Short term fluctuations have not changed the core logic of tight supply and easy price increases but difficult price decreases in the medium and long term. The specific market situation is as follows:

Cobalt prices fluctuate and fall from high levels in March
According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on April 1st was 426000 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 2.89% compared to the cobalt price of 438700 yuan/ton on March 1st. In March, the overall domestic cobalt spot price remained in a high range, showing a trend of “stabilizing at a high level and narrowing volatility”, with obvious seller led characteristics. In March, the domestic spot price of cobalt mainly operated in the range of 429000 to 433000 yuan/ton, with limited fluctuations and no unilateral market trend. At the same time, the ex factory price of domestic cobalt sulfate (20.5%) remained stable at 96000-98000 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the end of February, and the seller’s quotation remained firm; The price of imported cobalt hydroxide (30%) has remained stable at $25.6-26.8 per pound throughout the month, and the fundamentals of extremely tight raw material supply have not loosened.
Overseas markets: narrow fluctuations, prices tend to stabilize
The London Metal Exchange (LME) cobalt contract showed a narrow range of fluctuations and overall high-level stabilization in March, with weak trading activity. Throughout March, the fluctuation range of LME cobalt prices slightly increased compared to before, mainly fluctuating around the range of $55840-56290/ton, with minimal daily fluctuations. Most trading days opened and closed at the same price. As of March 28th, LME cobalt futures closed flat at $56290 per ton; On March 30th, LME three-month cobalt remained at a high level without significant fluctuations, with a slight upward trend compared to the beginning of the month. The fluctuation range was controlled within 1%, and there were no obvious unilateral upward or downward driving factors.
Core driving factors of the market trend
Supply side: The long-term tight pattern has not changed, with short-term partial easing
In March, the cobalt supply side showed a characteristic of “long-term rigid tightness and short-term lack of substantial easing”, which was significantly influenced by the policies of major producing countries, geopolitical events, and logistics costs. From a long-term core logic perspective, the global cobalt supply is hard constrained by the export quota of the Democratic Republic of Congo. The export quota for 2026 is only 96600 tons, a decrease of 55% from the actual supply in 2024. It is expected that the local effective supply will only account for less than 40% of the production, resulting in a continued tight supply of cobalt raw materials worldwide. In March, Congo (Kinshasa) introduced new sampling regulations that allow companies to “ship while in dispute” during testing disputes. However, this adjustment is only for technical process optimization and does not change the rigid constraint of the total quota. The market response to this was lukewarm and did not trigger a price correction. On March 31st, the mining regulatory agency of the Democratic Republic of Congo issued new regulations requiring companies to use up their unused export quotas for the fourth quarter of 2025 before April 30th. Any unused quotas beyond the deadline will be confiscated and transferred to strategic reserves. At the same time, it is clarified that quotas for the first quarter of 2026 can be extended until June 30th for shipment. This measure aims to stabilize supply, but does not change the tight supply pattern in the short term.

From the perspective of short-term supply in March, some domestic smelting enterprises have slightly released their production capacity, and the arrival of overseas cobalt raw materials has increased to a certain extent. The production rhythm of domestic smelting plants is normal, and the supply of cobalt salt and electrolytic cobalt spot is relatively sufficient. Combined with the gradual release of some inventory in the market, it has temporarily eased the pressure of supply shortage. The core pattern of rigid tightening of global cobalt supply has not changed: the arrival time of intermediate cobalt products at domestic ports has been delayed, social inventories have dropped to historical lows, and can only support consumption for a few weeks. The problem of raw material shortage in smelters has not been fundamentally solved; Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict led to a surge of over 35% in global container freight rates in March, significantly increasing the trade costs of cobalt raw materials and products, further strengthening the cost support of prices. The long-term strategic procurement agreement between Gree and Glencore continues to be fulfilled. In 2026, Glencore will supply 14400 tons of crude cobalt hydroxide raw materials to Gree, which will to some extent stabilize the raw material supply of some domestic smelting enterprises.
Demand side: Overall moderate growth, short-term temporary weakness
Power battery demand: As the top pillar of cobalt demand (accounting for 43%), the growth rate of global new energy vehicle demand will decline in 2026, while the proportion of ternary batteries will decrease significantly. It is expected that the annual demand for cobalt in power batteries will be 124000 tons, an increase of 24% compared to 2024. In March, domestic new energy power battery companies were still in the stage of destocking, and the pace of capacity release for ternary batteries was slow. The demand for cobalt raw materials did not meet expectations, and most of them relied on replenishing inventory as needed, making it difficult to support the upward trend of cobalt prices.
Consumer electronics demand: accounting for 30% of cobalt demand, affected by extended replacement cycles and chip drag, may face overall negative growth in 2026, but AI smartphones AI PC、 The wave of replacement brought by foldable screens and other products is expected to result in a demand for 77000 tons of cobalt for consumer electronics throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 10%. However, the demand in the consumer electronics market remained flat in March, and downstream companies showed a strong wait-and-see attitude towards price cutting, further weakening the purchasing demand for cobalt.
Other demands: Traditional and emerging fields such as energy storage, high-temperature alloys, and hard alloys account for 27% of the demand. It is expected that the demand for cobalt will reach 73000 tons by 2026, a year-on-year increase of 11%. Emerging fields such as humanoid robots and large-scale energy storage power stations are gradually opening up long-term growth space, but there was no concentrated release of this demand in March, which has limited support for the short-term market.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, the core feature of the cobalt market in March 2026 is that “the long-term strong foundation has not changed, and the short-term supply and demand structural differentiation has led to narrow fluctuations”. The price has not experienced a significant correction, mainly due to the rigid constraints of the supply side and the rigid support of logistics costs. The short-term fluctuations are the result of the structural differentiation of supply and demand, macro sentiment, and profit taking.

In the future, the short-term cobalt price is likely to fluctuate and fall within a narrow range, but it is difficult to see a one-sided market trend. The subsequent price trend needs to focus on three core variables: first, the actual implementation efficiency of Congo (Kinshasa) export quotas, especially the implementation of quota usage in the fourth quarter of 2025 before April 30. The possibility of concentrated shipments by enterprises is increasing, and it is expected that the cobalt market will experience short-term supply loosening in April; The second is the progress of downstream demand recovery, as well as the inventory digestion of new energy battery and consumer electronics enterprises; Thirdly, there are geopolitical conflicts and changes in logistics costs. If the Middle East conflict continues to push up shipping costs, it will further strengthen the cost support of prices. Short term supply is expected to concentrate, and the recovery of shipping demand is limited. Coupled with strengthened transportation cost support, cobalt prices are likely to fluctuate slightly and fall back in April.

Zinc price in March

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31st, the zinc price was 23148 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.17% from the zinc price of 24438 yuan/ton on March 1st.
The zinc price in March showed an overall trend of “initial oscillation, mid-term accelerated decline, and later bottoming out and rebounding”, with core fluctuations revolving around supply and demand games and macro emotions. The lowest point appeared on the 19th at 22836 yuan/ton.
Macro factors
In early March, the US dollar index strengthened in stages, exerting some pressure on industrial metals such as zinc priced in US dollars, indirectly leading to difficulty in forming upward momentum in zinc prices and showing a volatile trend. After the middle of the month, the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates continued to decline. As of the end of March, market expectations gradually became clear, and macro suppressive factors eased, laying the foundation for the later recovery of zinc prices.
Supply and demand side
Supply side: In March, the operating rate of domestic zinc smelting enterprises remained high, coupled with the resumption of production in some mines, the supply of raw materials was relatively sufficient, which to some extent suppressed zinc prices; Meanwhile, although zinc inventory has declined, it is still within a relatively reasonable range and has not formed a pattern of supply shortage.
On the demand side: March is in the traditional “golden three silver four” start-up season, but downstream consumption recovery is not as expected. Demand in traditional zinc consumption areas such as real estate and home appliances is weak, with only a small amount of rigid demand support in the new energy vehicle and infrastructure sectors. The overall demand side has failed to form effective upward momentum, leading to a sustained decline in zinc prices in the medium term; As downstream enterprises gradually resume production in the later stage, the release of essential demand has driven prices to slightly rise.
Inventory side: synchronized decline in domestic and international inventory, supporting later recovery
The inventory side is showing a trend of “continuous depletion”, providing support for zinc prices. The continuous depletion of inventory has eased supply pressure and become one of the core supporting factors for the later bottoming out and rebound of zinc prices.
Future forecast
The zinc price experienced a complete cycle of “oscillation decline rebound” in March, with the core being dominated by supply and demand games and macroeconomic policy expectations; In April, the macro environment tends to stabilize, inventory depletion continues, and demand gradually recovers. Zinc prices are likely to show a fluctuating upward trend, with a focus on downstream demand recovery pace, inventory changes, and Federal Reserve policy trends.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in March 2026, the overall domestic 1 # antimony ingot market showed a trend of first rising and then falling, with a monthly increase. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 168000 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 169000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 0.6% for the whole month.

Supply side:
In the international market, overseas antimony ingot prices fluctuated at a high level in March. Global antimony resources are scarce and there is a significant supply-demand gap. Overseas mining production is weak and supply elasticity is insufficient. At the same time, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is gradually narrowing, and the flow of Southeast Asian antimony raw materials to China is increasing, which to some extent alleviates the shortage of domestic raw materials, but does not change the overall tight situation. The domestic and foreign supply sides jointly provide bottom support for domestic antimony prices.
The overall supply pattern of antimony ingots in China remained tight in March. The environmental supervision in the main production areas continues to be strict, coupled with the stable and limited pace of mining production, the slow pace of raw material replenishment in the smelting process, and the limited space for overall output release in the field. The tight circulation of raw materials combined with the overall low level of inventory in the industry, the shrinking volume of spot circulation in the market, and the cautious shipping mentality of production enterprises, have formed a stable support for the market in terms of overall supply of goods. The temporary tight supply of goods has also driven the prices to rise in stages during the month.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field.
Antimony oxide: In March, downstream demand was mainly stable and rigid, with limited capacity to accept high priced antimony ingots, which restricted the upward space of prices. Among them, antimony oxide, as a core deep processing product, has a highly correlated demand performance with the antimony ingot market. As the largest consumer scenario of antimony oxide in the traditional flame retardant field, regular on-demand procurement was maintained in March without centralized replenishment behavior. Due to restrictions on halogenated flame retardants in the European Union and other regions, as well as fluctuations in bromine prices, downstream enterprises have limited acceptance of high priced antimony oxide, and procurement is mainly focused on small batch and essential replenishment..
Photovoltaic: Demand steadily increased in March, and antimony oxide was processed into sodium pyroantimonate and used as a clarifying agent in photovoltaic glass production to improve glass transparency and strength. However, the industry’s high inventory and oversupply pressure have not yet eased, and the pace of demand release has slowed down, failing to form a large-scale procurement pull. The demand for lead-acid batteries and other traditional fields remains stable, and the overall downstream purchasing mentality tends to be cautious. The wait-and-see sentiment is heating up, and there is insufficient follow-up on actual transactions. The market’s fear of high prices is gradually emerging.
Market outlook: Taking into account the domestic and international supply and demand patterns, it is expected that the domestic antimony ingot market will maintain a high level of volatility and a stable to strong operation in April. On the supply side, domestic environmental protection and mining control continue, and the tight overseas supply pattern is difficult to change. The shortage of raw materials and the reluctance of enterprises to sell still exist, and low-priced sources are scarce. Merchants have a strong willingness to raise prices. On the demand side, the demand for antimony oxide in the flame retardant field remains stable, and the incremental support in the photovoltaic glass field will continue. However, downstream acceptance of high costs is limited, making it difficult to have explosive growth and limiting the potential for significant price increases. It is expected that the overall trend will continue to be dominated by high-level fluctuations and consolidation.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices fluctuated and fell mainly in March. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 102136.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price fell to 95520 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 6.48% and a year-on-year increase of 17.15%.
According to the Business Society’s current chart, copper spot prices were higher than futures prices in March, with the main contract being the expected price two months later. It is expected that copper prices will be better in the future.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory increased significantly in March. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 359825 tons, up 39.64% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, geopolitical risks such as the US Iran conflict continue to ferment, and the market is concerned that potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will impact global crude oil supply. High oil prices not only drive up smelting costs (such as sulfuric acid), but also suppress manufacturing demand, exacerbating expectations of a global economic slowdown, thereby suppressing copper consumption prospects.
Supply side: As of late March, the spot processing fee (TC) for imported copper concentrate in China has fallen to a deep negative range of over -60 US dollars per ton. Unlike in the past when there was a shortage of cold materials such as scrap copper and crude copper, which could provide a buffer, the cold material market has also tightened significantly this month. Due to the shortage of raw materials and severe losses in processing fees, coupled with the centralized maintenance period of domestic smelters in April and May, the market generally expects a more than expected decline in refined copper production.
Downstream: After a significant drop in copper prices, downstream purchasing intentions have been significantly released. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rods has rebounded to 72.9%, basically returning to the same period last year. Copper rod enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish inventory at low prices, resulting in a decrease in finished product inventory. The construction of AI data centers, global power grid upgrades (especially the renovation of old power grids in Europe and America), and energy transformation (wind power, photovoltaics, and electric vehicles) are regarded as the “three major engines” for future copper consumption. Especially the huge consumption of electricity by AI computing power centers is seen as a new variable driving copper demand.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper has risen more than fallen in April.
In summary, the copper market in March is undergoing a deep adjustment driven by macro factors. Although geopolitical conflicts and the Federal Reserve’s policy shift have brought significant short-term selling pressure, the supply and demand relationship at the industrial level has not actually deteriorated. It is expected that copper prices may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downward space is expected to be limited.

Under the multiple game of cost weakening, supply contraction, and weak demand, the PTA market has entered a phase of correction since mid March. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 26th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 6740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.77% from March 17th.

On March 23rd, New York time, international crude oil futures collapsed across the board. As of the close, NYMEX May crude oil futures plummeted $10.10, a decrease of 10.28%, with a settlement price of $88.13 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil fell $12.25 in May, a decrease of 10.9%, closing at $99.94 per barrel, falling below the 100 yuan mark; Brent crude oil fell 9.9% in June, to $95.92 per barrel. Stimulated by news from the US, oil prices plummeted by nearly 15% during trading. Subsequently, Iranian officials denied dialogue with the US, resulting in a slight narrowing of the decline. The long short game was at its peak on the market, and PTA cost support weakened.
From the perspective of supply and demand, the PTA industry will be in a capacity vacuum period in 2026, with no new production capacity added. Coupled with the compression of enterprise processing fees, PTA production enterprises will actively reduce their workload for maintenance. Due to severe cost fluctuations, the difference in PTA spot processing has been significantly reduced, resulting in an increase in production cuts and shutdowns of domestic facilities. The current industry operating rate is only 77%, with supply side contraction supporting price increases.
In terms of demand, after PTA prices surged, downstream polyester and weaving enterprises faced a sharp decline in their willingness to purchase high priced raw materials, resulting in sluggish production and sales, and insufficient support for high priced demand. The shortage of overseas orders and the rebound of polyester finished product inventory have further suppressed the recovery of terminal demand, becoming an important driving force for the PTA market downturn.
Business analysts believe that the PTA maintenance plan for the second quarter exceeds 8 million tons, and the logic of supply contraction remains unchanged. In addition, PTA processing fees are still at a low level, and the downward space is limited. However, there are still suppressing factors, and the trend of crude oil and PX prices, as well as the evolution of geopolitical conflicts, directly determine the direction of the cost side. At the same time, the recovery strength of terminal demand is questionable, and the shortage of overseas orders and high inventory of enterprises may continue to affect procurement sentiment. Short term fluctuations in the funding situation may also exacerbate market volatility.

price trend

In the past week (March 18 to March 24, 2026), the domestic PA66 market has shown an overall trend of high and strong fluctuations and upward movement, with the price center steadily rising. The market is in a stalemate of supply control, strong cost support, and weak demand waiting to see. Low price sources are gradually tightening, and the overall bargaining space is narrowing. Transactions are mainly based on small orders for essential needs. On March 24th, the benchmark price of PA66 by Shengyi Society was reported at 20533.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.12% from 19533.33 on March 18th.
influencing factors
In terms of cost:
Recently, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have continued, and international oil prices have fluctuated at high levels. In March, the execution price of hexamethylenediamine in NVIDIA China was raised to 22000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4200 yuan/ton from February; Adipic acid fluctuated at a high level within the week and slightly rose. On March 24th, the benchmark price of adipic acid in Shengyi Society was 10433 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.29% from 10300 yuan/ton on March 18th.
Supply side:
Recently, the volume of imported goods has decreased compared to the same period last year, and coupled with the impact of high price expectations on traders, there is a strong sentiment of hoarding and reluctance to sell. Both manufacturers and traders have low overall inventory, and the market spot circulation is tight.
In terms of demand:
Recently, although most downstream textile industries have resumed work and production, their acceptance of the current high PA66 price is extremely low, and they have a strong wait-and-see attitude. They generally abandon the previous hoarding mode and adopt a small order procurement strategy of immediate use and procurement, only maintaining basic production and stocking, without centralized replenishment or large-scale procurement actions.
Future forecast
In the future, the PA66 market is likely to maintain a high and narrow range oscillation trend in the short term. The core logic is still that cost support is stronger than demand suppression, and prices are unlikely to experience significant unilateral fluctuations in the short term. Overall, stability is the main focus, with slight fluctuations. The follow-up market still focuses on the two core variables of changes in raw material costs and the progress of downstream terminal demand recovery.

Since March, the nitrile rubber market has seen a significant upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 24th, the price was 21175 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.31% from 16250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in international crude oil prices, driving upstream butadiene trading at high levels (FOB South Korea $2030/ton, CFR China $2050/ton). The cost of core raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile has skyrocketed, and the cost pressure on enterprises has increased sharply. There are maintenance plans for nitrile rubber plants at home and abroad in the later stage, which supports the supplier’s confidence in raising prices.
In March, domestic nitrile rubber plants started operating at a high level, and there are maintenance plans for nitrile plants both domestically and internationally at the end of March and April.
In February, the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile surged, and the cost of nitrile rubber was strongly supported. As of March 24th, the price of butadiene was 16766 yuan/ton, an increase of 67.78% from 9933 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of March 24th, the price of acrylonitrile was 11366 yuan/ton, an increase of 60.09% from 7100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
At the beginning of the month, downstream product companies mainly focused on digesting inventory. Later on, with the intensification of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, some downstream companies considered purchasing in small quantities at a later cost. The production of nitrile rubber downstream hoses in China was at 68%, and demand faced the rigid demand support of nitrile rubber.
Market forecast: Business Society’s nitrile analyst believes that the current cost support for nitrile rubber is strong; Stable downstream demand; The supply of nitrile rubber is expected to decrease in the later stage, and it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.

On March 23rd, the domestic PVC market experienced a unilateral strong trend, with the main futures contracts soaring significantly, while spot prices rose synchronously but not as much as futures, presenting an overall pattern of “futures leading the rise, spot prices following the rise, cost leading, and weak demand”. The core driving force behind this round of price increases comes from the continued escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, which has led to a surge in raw material costs. Coupled with the expectation of supply contraction caused by domestic spring maintenance, weak downstream demand, high price resistance, and high social inventory have become the core obstacles restricting the sustained rise in prices. The market’s long short game focuses on the mismatch between costs and fundamentals. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of PVC SG-5 in East China is reported at 6063 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6.9%. Core driver: Violent cost side price increases, supply side contraction expectations strengthened

1. Geopolitical factors drive the increase in raw material costs, with ethylene becoming the core driving force
The tense situation of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East continues, and the high level of international crude oil directly drives the price surge of the ethylene industry chain, becoming the most core driving force for the rise of PVC. The CFR Northeast Asia ethylene price has surged by over 90% since the end of February, and the domestic East China ethylene listing price has also increased significantly, with the increase exceeding 65%. The production cost of ethylene based PVC has sharply risen, and some ethylene based plants have been forced to reduce production or even shut down due to raw material shortages and cost inversion. The expectation of tight raw material supply has completely ignited the bullish sentiment in the market. At the same time, the price of calcium carbide has risen synchronously, with smooth shipments from calcium carbide factories and low inventory levels. The factory price has continued to increase, further consolidating the cost support of calcium carbide method PVC. The cost center of the two types of processes has also shifted upwards, driving up the overall valuation of PVC. According to data from Shengyi Society, the price of calcium carbide increased by nearly 10% in March.
2. Spring maintenance gradually landing supply side pressure marginal relief
The supply side is showing a structural contraction trend. Currently, the overall operating rate of the PVC industry is about 80%, with a slight increase compared to the previous period, mainly offset by a slight rebound in the operating rate of carbide process equipment; The operating rate of the ethylene process has significantly decreased to 70%, and spring maintenance has gradually entered an intensive period. The loss of equipment maintenance continues to increase, and the market’s expectation of further supply contraction in the future remains strong. Although the overall supply is still at a neutral to high level, reduced production and increased maintenance of equipment have effectively alleviated the pressure of oversupply in the early stage and provided fundamental support for price increases.
2、 Supply and demand contradiction: insufficient demand follow-up, high inventory, and continued suppression
The weak performance on the demand side makes it difficult to match the skyrocketing pace on the cost side, resulting in a clear supply-demand mismatch. Although downstream pipe and profile enterprises have slowly rebounded in production, they have strong resistance to high priced PVC, and their performance in new orders is poor. Most enterprises mainly focus on replenishing inventory for essential needs and dare not hoard large quantities, which hinders the transmission chain of prices. Although the export side has slightly increased its acceptance of high prices, forming a certain demand support, it is difficult to completely offset the weak domestic demand gap. The overall demand side can only play a bottom support role and cannot promote sustained unilateral price increases.

The inventory side is still a potential pressure in the market. Although social inventory continues to slowly deplete, the absolute value is still at a historical high level. The pattern of high inventory has not fundamentally changed, and the subsequent destocking rate will become a key indicator affecting the sustainability of the market. If downstream demand continues to be sluggish and destocking slows down, it will directly constrain the upward space of PVC spot prices.
3、 Market outlook: Short term strong operation, alert to the risk of sentiment decline
In the short term, the core trading logic of the PVC market still revolves around the cost increase and supply contraction caused by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The strong support on the cost side has not dissipated, and the expectation of supply contraction is still present. Prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall, and the short-term PVC spot market is likely to maintain a strong and volatile pattern. In the medium term, if the geopolitical premium gradually subsides and raw material costs fall, coupled with the suppression of high inventory and weak demand fundamentals, the upward momentum of PVC prices will gradually weaken, and it is likely to return to the oscillation trend dominated by supply and demand fundamentals. It is necessary to closely track the marginal changes on the cost and demand sides.

1. Trend Analysis

According to data monitored by Business Society, copper prices declined slightly this week, closing at 95,813.33 yuan per ton by the 20th, down 3.54% from the start of the week but up 17.52% year-on-year.
According to the weekly price trend chart from Business Society, copper prices have seen three declines and three increases over the past three months, with a slight drop this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME copper inventories rose slightly, reaching 335,425 tons by the end of the week, up 7.65% from the beginning of the week.
Macro perspective: The overnight Federal Reserve rate-setting meeting delivered a strong hawkish signal, coupled with the sharp escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions, instantly freezing global risk asset sentiment.
Supply side: The resumption of production in major copper-producing countries such as Peru and Chile, combined with the commissioning of new mines in Africa, has shifted global copper concentrate supply from shortage to surplus.
Demand side: The traditional peak season of “Golden Three” did not arrive as expected, with cautious inquiries from downstream buyers and low but inconsistent procurement. The continuous deterioration in real estate data (new construction projects down 23.1%) directly dragged down cable and home appliance consumption.
In summary: Copper prices remain high year-on-year, which has dampened end consumption. Under the hawkish pressure from the Federal Reserve, financial attributes dominate pricing, leading to significant short-term adjustment pressure on copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will primarily experience a weak adjustment in the short term.