This week, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China saw a slight increase. On August 3rd, the average market price was 426920 yuan/ton, and as of August 12th, the average market price was 427550 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15%.
At this stage, the tin price has emerged from a roller coaster trend of “rapid rise and fall” – the front part of the mining end is tight and low inventory drives it to surge to 435540 yuan/ton and trigger a super rise, while the rear part is afraid of high sentiment and the marginal loosening of internal and external inventory leads to a rapid decline to around 427000 yuan/ton.
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fundamentals
Supply side: The tight mining situation has not changed, but there are signs of looseness at the margin
Supply side constraints remain the core support for tin prices. The resumption of tin mining in the Wa State of Myanmar has been slower than expected due to the rainy season, mining area restoration, and production material supply restrictions; Due to export quotas and local smelting policies, Indonesia’s refined tin exports have significantly shrunk year-on-year; The Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo has raised concerns about mining operations. The overall supply from the mining end maintains a tight balance pattern.
However, there are some loose signals at the margin: Indonesia’s previously blocked export ships due to policy ambiguity have fully resumed operations, and imports of tin ingots from Indonesia may rebound in the later stage; Although the raw material supply of domestic smelting enterprises is still tight, the recent increase in processing fees has shown signs of easing the tight mining situation.
Demand side: Dual line repair provides resilience, but high prices suppress inventory replenishment
The demand side shows a structural rebound but the overall volume is suppressed:
Semiconductor recovery: The resumption of semiconductor packaging and testing has driven the replenishment of solder orders, and the expansion of AI computing infrastructure has driven the use of high-end PCB tin.
Volume of photovoltaic solder: The demand for photovoltaic solder strips forms the second demand clue, and the increase in component production scheduling drives the growth of tin solder usage.
New energy vehicles: The onboard solder and power components are stably supported by tin.
But currently in the off-season of electronic consumption, the downstream is clearly afraid of high tin prices, and solder companies lack the willingness to maintain essential procurement and actively replenish inventory. The spot market is affected by off-season factors and price trends, resulting in unstable trading conditions.
Inventory end
LME inventory: fell to 5795 tons on August 7th, continuing to hit a historic low, with spot premiums expanding. On August 10th, it slightly rebounded to 5640 tons (+50 tons), and on August 11th, it increased by another 50 tons, accumulating a small amount of inventory for two consecutive days, ending the previous trend of continuous depletion.
Domestic inventory: SHFE warehouse receipt reported 5199 tons on August 11th.
Comprehensive analysis: Short term high volatility is relatively weak
Downward risk: LME inventory has increased for two consecutive days, ending the continuous trend of destocking; Downstream fear of heights and urgent procurement are the main focus; Macro level US inflation data is about to be released, and market sentiment is cautious.
Upward support: The tight mining situation has not fundamentally changed; LME inventory remains at historically low levels; Provide bottom support for semiconductor+photovoltaic dual line demand repair.
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