Market trend
The PA6 spot market has been consolidating at a high level in the past week (September 9-15). On September 9th, the benchmark price of PA6 was reported at 14500.00 yuan/ton, and the price remained high during the week, with mainstream manufacturers significantly raising their prices; Technical indicators show directional differentiation of the three mean differences, presenting a bullish signal of retracement under volatile market conditions, with prices in the high range of 60 day, 3-month, and 1-year cycles.
influencing factors
Cost side: Upstream pure benzene prices are running at a high level. In the second week of September, Sinopec raised the weekly closing price of caprolactam by 520 yuan/ton to 14480 yuan/ton, resulting in a significant increase in raw material costs and strong cost support for PA6. The polymerization factory has a strong willingness to raise prices.
Supply and demand side: Some of the caprolactam units are undergoing maintenance, and the overall supply of raw materials is tight. The PA6 polymerization unit is operating at a relatively stable level, and the market spot increment is limited. The inventory pressure of factories and traders is not high, and the holding merchants have a strong reluctance to sell and a weak willingness to ship at low prices. Downstream textile and spinning enterprises on the demand side urgently need to follow up, but they have resistance to high slice prices. The release of textile orders at the end of the “Golden September” peak season fell short of expectations. Most downstream enterprises mainly consume their own inventory and replenish inventory on demand, with weak willingness to actively stock up in large quantities. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is average.
Future forecast
The PA6 market is expected to maintain a volatile and strong consolidation pattern in the short term in the future. The cost support brought by the high level of caprolactam still exists, and the atmosphere of multiple heads in the industrial chain is still present; However, the current full cycle price is at a high level, and the downstream acceptance capacity is limited. There is significant resistance to sustained and significant price increases, and it is necessary to focus on tracking the progress of caprolactam plant resumption, fluctuations in pure benzene prices, and the actual order landing situation of textile terminals.
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