According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of spandex in the domestic market recently bottomed out and rebounded, with an increase of more than 3% in the past seven days, of which the market average price of 40d specification as of April 15 was 32600 yuan / ton, up 3.49% on a weekly basis and down 10.28% on a year-on-year basis. The terminal needs to follow up carefully in all fields, and the supply of conventional products is stable. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang area, the reference for 20d spandex mainstream negotiation is 36000-38000 yuan / ton; the reference for 30d spandex mainstream negotiation is 34000-35000 yuan / ton; the reference for 40d spandex mainstream negotiation is 28000-29000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction details are discussed.

At present, the attention of spandex market coarse denier is still high, the mask wind is strong, the demand for mask earband is still hot, there is a certain speculation atmosphere, the manufacturer coarse denier has a good shipment, the goods are tight and the price is high. Since the Qingming Festival holiday, 70D / 140d goods are hard to find, and the price has increased from 30000 yuan / ton to 32000-35000 yuan / ton. There are also a few manufacturers who do not offer or accept orders temporarily. Up to now, the mainstream price reference of 70D / 140d market is 38000-43000 yuan / ton, the higher price is more heard, and the market price is relatively chaotic. At present, most of the manufacturers have changed production and their production capacity has been improved. Some of them still do not receive new orders. They hand over orders in the early stage and arrange orders in advance until May.

Summary of production and marketing trends of domestic PTMEG manufacturers

Enterprise name capacity (10000 tons / year) remarks

Shanxi sanwei 5 parking, no restart plan

Jiaxing Xiaoxing 12 small line parking

Sinopec Great Wall energy chemical 9.2 unit load is not high

Shaanxi chemical 4.6 full load operation

Henan Nenghua No.6 parking Center

The load of Xinjiang Meike 5 unit is not high

Low load of 4.6 unit in Tunhe, Lanshan, Xinjiang

The raw material PTMEG market is in a weak position, the factory has a certain shipping pressure, and the focus of actual single negotiation is weak. The main quotation of 1800 molecular weight goods source is 15000-15500 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation is 14200-15000 yuan / ton. Pure MDI continues to be weak in the low position, and the downstream rigid purchase is the main factor, with limited trading volume and weak investment. The quotation in South China is 13500-14000 yuan / ton telegraphic transfer barrels, and that in North China is 13500-14000 yuan / ton telegraphic transfer barrels.

In the lower reaches of Zhejiang Province, enterprises in Xiaoshao region started to work at a low level, with 30-50% starting in the round machine and yarn wrapping Market; in Zhangjiagang region, Jiangsu Province, the market order was insufficient, with 50-60% starting level, and the overall demand in the terminal field was weak. However, the demand for mask earband is good, and the supply is in short supply. The terminal adds a new mask machine, and the demand for spandex 70D / 140d increases. The buyer mainly orders small orders, and some dealers take a large number of goods, so most spandex manufacturers have changed production to 140d, and the production capacity increases.

Overall, at present, in addition to the tight supply of raw spandex, the supply of spandex is basically stable, the demand in the downstream terminal area is light, the demand for masks and earbands is good, and the supply is in short supply. Therefore, in the short term, the price of spandex market remains stable and the market leader is in the upper middle. Business analysts believe that as the attention of crude denier silk weakens and the market speculation enthusiasm cools, the price will gradually return to rationality.

The organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced on the evening of the 12th that OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries reached an oil production reduction agreement on the same day, with an average daily production reduction of 9.7 million barrels from May 1, the first round of production reduction lasting for two months.

OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries held a ministerial Video Conference on the 12th and reached an agreement. According to the agreement, the production reduction from May to June this year will be 9.7 million barrels per day, 7.7 million barrels per day from July to the end of this year, and 5.8 million barrels per day from January 2021 to April 2022.

In a statement on social media that night, OPEC Secretary General Mohammed barjindo said that the production reduction agreement is the largest and longest lasting and has historical significance. The statement said the agreement is conducive to oil producing countries, consumers and the global economy, and is a victory for international cooperation and multilateralism.

On September 9, OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries reached an initial agreement to reduce production by 10 million barrels per day from May to June this year. A final agreement could not be reached on the same day, as Mexico opposed the production cuts allocated to it. According to the agreement reached on the 12th, Mexico’s production reduction is 100000 barrels per day, rather than the previously proposed 400000 barrels per day.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market price of asphalt fell this week, and the price of asphalt was reported as 2300 yuan / ton, 10.68% lower than that of last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: on April 9, when the international oil price fell and the demand of asphalt market recovered slowly, the price of asphalt market fell sharply this week.

Industry chain: on April 9, the OPEC + special meeting came to an end. Its production reduction amount was lower than the market expectation. The market generally didn’t buy the result, and was boosted by the news of production reduction earlier. The market has digested the benefit ahead of time. From the perspective of demand, at present, the global epidemic is still in the stage of rapid spread. Market experts generally believe that it may last for a long time in the later period. Some institutions predict that the decline of crude oil demand in April will exceed 20 million barrels / day, or even 30 million barrels. As of 15:00 on the 10th, WTI crude oil price was at $23.5/barrel, and WTI crude oil futures fell 10.11% this week.

In terms of asphalt Market: Sinopec and PetroChina’s main refineries suppressed the price of asphalt this week. At the beginning of this week, the crude oil market was favorable and boosted the overall turnover of asphalt market. However, in Northeast China, Liaohe Petrochemical’s Asphalt price was reduced by 200 yuan / ton, and in Northwest China, Karamay’s price was reduced by 300 yuan / ton. The regional market price is still dominated by supply. In the case of slow demand recovery, asphalt price It is more difficult to push the price up. On April 9, the international oil price fell sharply, and the sentiment of asphalt market fell into wait-and-see again.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst with business club, believes that the output reduction of OPEC + meeting is not as strong as expected, and the demand for crude oil is expected to fall sharply, the crude oil market has no power to act, and the asphalt market has no demand support, and the price of asphalt market is expected to be stable in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in China rose this week. Last Friday (April 3) the sample enterprise price of the business association was 4700.00 yuan / ton, and this Friday (April 10) the sample enterprise price was 5183.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.28%. The price is 37.80% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products:

This week, styrene market prices rebounded steadily and rose sharply. On April 3, East China styrene closed at 4500-4600 yuan / ton, and on April 10, 5200 yuan / ton, up about 600 yuan / ton. The above price is Zhangjiagang’s export price. On April 3, South China styrene closed at 4500-4550 yuan / ton, and on April 10, 5100 yuan / ton, up by 600 yuan / ton. The delivery price of the above factories. This week continues to be affected by the expectation of crude oil production reduction. Styrene market participants have a bullish expectation for the future. In the week, styrene got rid of the influence of crude oil and supply and demand, and pulled the styrene price up by the rising sentiment. The buying was positive and the overall trading atmosphere was good. With the resumption of downstream mainstream enterprises, the demand for styrene has gradually increased, and the operating rate of domestic styrene plants has remained at 67.05%, up from the previous few weeks. On the port side, the port inventory is slightly lower than last week, but in the short term, it is difficult to break the situation that the supply of styrene exceeds the demand.

Industrial chain:

Crude oil and futures picked up this week, pure benzene stopped falling and rebounded, and ethylene continued to fall. The price of downstream EPS rose sharply this week, PS rose slightly, ABS fell slightly, and the overall operating rate of downstream enterprises rose. Downstream enterprises maintained a high profit and strong demand for styrene.

3、 Future outlook

At present, the situation of oversupply is still in progress, and the production profit is showing a positive trend, which will increase the willingness of domestic styrene factories to raise the operating rate, while the port inventory will still be sufficient next week. Although the downstream demand is strong, it is possible to digest the demand in advance. It is expected that the market rally sentiment of styrene market will fall in the short term, closely following the trend of crude oil.

1、 Price trend

On April 10, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 3417 yuan / ton, down 2.38% from last Friday, according to the data of business agency.

On April 9, the price of large-scale single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 3405 yuan / ton, up 75 yuan / ton or 2.25% from the beginning of the week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of April 9, the glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 1145200 tons, an increase of 24600 tons or 2.20% compared with last Thursday, and an increase of 4300 tons or 0.38% compared with this Monday. Inventory is still high, but the rate of accumulation slows down.

In terms of shipment, this week, the main port of Zhangjiagang delivered about 5400 tons per day, while Taicang delivered about 1900 tons per day to the two warehouses, which remained at a low level.

At present, the operating rate of glycol is about 59%, which is lower than that of last week. The operating rate of polyester downstream is about 81%, which is slightly higher than that of last week.

In terms of equipment, Xinjiang Tianye has an annual output of 350000 tons of glycol plant, which was shut down for maintenance on April 4, and the restart time has not been determined. Maoming Petrochemical Branch reduces the load of glycol section, reduces losses and increases efficiency.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Affected by the positive trend of crude oil during the Qingming period, the spot and futures prices of glycol have recovered this week. However, with the end of crude oil rally, glycol market expectations gradually fell back.

At present, coal manufacturing enterprises have suffered serious losses, and various units have begun to reduce load and stop work for maintenance to avoid risks. However, due to the continuous supply of imported goods, there is no downward trend in inventory. The downstream operation rate has increased, but due to the impact of the global epidemic, foreign trade orders continue to be cancelled and exports are limited.

In the early morning of April 10, OPEC + meeting reached a framework agreement to reduce production by 10 million barrels / day in the next two months. If crude oil can stop falling and recover in the later period, glycol price is expected to fluctuate upward.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market price of cryolite this week was weak and stable. The average market price in Henan Province was 5833.33 yuan / ton in the week, which was stable compared with the price at the end of last week, down 9.33% compared with last year. On April 9, the cryolite commodity index was 70.85, the same as yesterday, 30.00% lower than 101.21 (2011-10-31), the highest point in the cycle, and 6.78% higher than 66.35, the lowest point on September 5, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: according to statistics, the price trend of cryolite is stable. As of the 10th, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is about 6000-6950 yuan / ton; the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 4800-6700 yuan / ton. At present, the operation of cryolite manufacturer’s devices is normal, the supply of enterprises is sufficient, and the transaction is fair. This week, the price quoted by the manufacturers is mainly stable, and the enterprises sell according to the order. Affected by the environmental protection policy, the upstream raw materials are in short supply, the downstream users purchase on demand, and the market situation of cryolite is weak and stable.

Industry chain: the upstream fluorite price trend continued to fall this week, with the average domestic market price on Friday at 3000 yuan / ton, down 4.93% in the week. In recent years, the operation rate of fluorite plant in China has increased. The mine and flotation plant in the site have been resumed gradually. The supply of fluorite has increased, the supply of downstream goods is sufficient, and the market price of fluorite has declined. In the downstream aluminum industry, the demand weakened due to the impact of health events and the weak operation of the market. This week, the aluminum price trend fluctuated upward. The average market price at the weekend was 11750 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 1.18% in the week, and the overall price did not change much in the week.

3、 Future forecast

According to the cryolite product analyst of the business association, the market price of cryolite is weak and stable at present. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, the manufacturer starts normally, has sufficient inventory, purchases on demand in the downstream, and the manufacturer’s quotation is not adjusted much. In the later stage, the cryolite market may maintain weak and stable operation, with specific attention to market demand.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, the spot nickel price rebounded slightly this week, with a weekend quotation of 98033.33 yuan / ton, up 4.44% from 93866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 5.6% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Futures quotations

At the beginning of this week, the main nickel market in Shanghai opened at 93800, and since then, the price is relatively strong. It rose sharply on Friday to close at 97310, up 5.31% on a weekly basis. Lennie closed at $11705 at Friday’s closing, up 4.46% on the week.

Philippines ban escalation

In recent years, the impact of the epidemic on the nickel supply side has increased, and the Philippine ban has been upgraded. The president of the Philippines said that he would like to extend the blockade until April 30. All mining and production processing in the high area of northern Missouri has been suspended since April 1, and nickel miners such as pgmc, TMC and HMC voluntarily suspended their mining and export business in April.

Ferronickel plant is not eager to purchase

At present, the existing nickel ore inventory of domestic mainstream nickel iron plants can still support January to March. Some small and medium-sized nickel iron plants are short of nickel ore raw material inventory. Although most domestic nickel iron plants are in deficit, most nickel iron plants plan to consider the shutdown after fully digesting the nickel ore inventory.

Stainless steel inventory pressure relief

In late March, the stainless steel inventory was digested to some extent, and the current inventory pressure was relieved. However, due to the spread of the global epidemic, the export orders of stainless steel in the overseas market were reduced. At present, the stainless steel market is still in the pattern of oversupply and the price of stainless steel is weak.

3、 Future prospects

Future market forecast: the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is affected by the epidemic. Nickel ore shipments may decline in April, and domestic port inventory of nickel ore continues to decline. Currently, nickel price does not touch the global mainstream cost of nickel (below $10000). It is expected that nickel price will rebound slightly in the short term, but the rebound range may be limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business associations, the market price of domestic propylene (Shandong) rose rapidly in the first ten days of April after a slight fall, which was 5239 yuan / ton on April 1; the ten day high price on April 10, which was 5957 yuan / ton, increased by 13.71%; the ten day low price on April 2, which was 5185 yuan / ton, with a ten day amplitude of 14.90%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Product: the price of propylene in Shandong Province fell in shock last month, and dropped sharply again at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of more than 15%. On the first day, the price continued to decline by 100-200 yuan / ton. On the second day, it still declined by 50 yuan / ton. On the third day, the price of some enterprises increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. After the Qing Dynasty, the price of propylene increased steadily. On the seventh day, the price of propylene increased by 100 yuan / ton every day. Today, it increased by 200-300 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction has risen to 5900-6100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 5900 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, influenced by the international situation, the international crude oil market last month repeatedly reported new lows, but the market continued to rise after the sharp fluctuation of the price on February 2. Now, many countries have introduced production reduction policies to improve the crude oil market and increase the propylene price. But on the other hand, the production reduction is not up to the expectation, so the pulling effect of propylene will be weakened.

In this ten day, PP spot rose sharply after stabilizing, with a 10 day increase of 11.45%, and this week’s increase of 14.36%. Polypropylene futures market continued to rise significantly, and there were trading limits, which also had a great positive impact on propylene.

This ten day acrylic acid market fell in shock, falling 6.22% in ten day, which had a certain negative impact on propylene.

In this ten day period, the market of propylene oxide rebounded after the decline, with a ten day drop of 1.72% and a ten day amplitude of 6.03%, eliminating part of the negative impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin was stable in this ten day period, down 1.48%, with little impact on propylene.

In this ten day period, the price of domestic n-butanol rose after a slight decline, with a rise of 3.44% in ten day period and 5.04% in weekly period, which had a certain positive impact on propylene.

This ten day octanol market fell after the correction, ten day increase of 0.32%, ten day amplitude of 4.28%, slightly positive impact on propylene.

Affected by the epidemic situation, isopropanol market, as one of the raw materials of foreign disinfectants, continued to rise steadily in April, with an increase of 11.11% in ten days, which still had a great positive impact on propylene.

The phenol Market in Shandong Province fell in this ten day period and then recovered, with a ten day drop of 1.86% and a ten day amplitude of 7.11%, which had a certain positive impact on propylene.

The acetone market in Shandong Province has recovered continuously after a slight decline in this ten day period, with an increase of 9.32% and an amplitude of 15.79%, which has a significant positive impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, in a comprehensive view, recently affected by the international crude oil market, the agreement on production reduction was initially reached, although it did not fully achieve the expected effect, it still had a certain pull up effect on propylene. However, PP futures in the lower reaches rose significantly, showing a trend of fluctuation. Most of the other downstream markets are also ideal, which has a certain positive effect on propylene. It is expected that the price of propylene will continue to rise in recent days, but the increase range and time are greatly affected by crude oil.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on April 9, the domestic phosphorus ore market operated in a small fluctuation. Based on several sample areas, the reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore at the initial high end was around 330-420 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Products: in April, the domestic phosphate rock market as a whole remained low and stable, and the market was mostly in a state of consolidation. New orders in the market were generally closed, and the on-site construction continued to improve slowly. At present, large-scale mining enterprises in Guizhou and other places offer stable prices. In Guizhou, 28% of the grade phosphate rock plants offer 320-340 yuan / ton; 30% of the grade phosphate rock plants offer 340-370 yuan / ton. Hubei area: 28% ammonium phosphate ore shipboard quotation is about 380-410 yuan / ton; 30% ammonium phosphate ore shipboard quotation is about 430-440 yuan / ton, of which, the factory quotation of 28% phosphate rock in Liushugou, Hubei Province is 390 yuan / ton, and the factory quotation of 30% phosphate rock in Liushugou, Hubei Province is 430 yuan / ton. Yunnan area: the quotation of 28% ammonium phosphate ore car plate is about 270-320 yuan / ton, and the factory quotation of 29% phosphate ore in Yunnan is about 320 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: since April, the yellow phosphorus market has been in weak and stable operation. After the festival, the market trading has improved. There are many replenishment orders. Some traders have a large number of new orders. The market supply is tight, and the transaction price of new orders is relatively firm. Currently, the net phosphorus ex factory acceptance transaction in Yunnan Province refers to 15800-16200 yuan / ton. Phosphoric acid market weak slightly downward finishing operation, the current market trading situation is general.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business agency, the inquiry of downstream products of phosphate rock has not been significantly improved in recent days. The overall market trend is weak, and it is expected that the market will remain weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Ammonium phosphate rose sharply in the first quarter, ushering in the peak season of the year. According to the data in the business club’s large list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium phosphate on January 1 was 1906 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium phosphate on March 31 was 2083 yuan / ton. The overall price of powdered monoammonium phosphate rose 9.27% in the first quarter, with the highest increase of 11.89%. The lowest price in the quarter is 1890 yuan / ton, and the highest price is 2133 yuan / ton.

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on January 1 was 2200 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on March 31 was 2225 yuan / ton. The overall price of diammonium phosphate rose by 1.14% in the first quarter. The lowest price in the quarter is 2200 yuan / ton, and the highest price is 2225 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Monoammonium phosphate: in January, the market of monoammonium phosphate was weak, and the price fell steadily. The demand side is still weak, and the downstream purchases on demand. The transportation difficulty in many places leads to the increase of freight, and the overall price fluctuates little. In February, the shipment of monoammonium phosphate was large, the transportation gradually recovered, and the downstream procurement was active. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have increased the rate of resumption of work, which has promoted the price of monoammonium phosphate to rise, and the market is oriented well. In March, the price of monoammonium phosphate fell back after a substantial increase, and the rate of enterprises returning to work was 62%. The fertilizer market is in the peak season of sales, the price of raw sulfur keeps rising, and the downstream demand is increasing. In the later stage, the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have sufficient stock and weak demand.

Diammonium: in January, the price of diammonium phosphate raw materials was low, the follow-up demand was weak, the price rise was blocked, and the transportation in many places was not smooth. Diammonium phosphate keeps stable operation, and the operating rate of the enterprise is about 50%. In February, diammonium phosphate remained stable without any sign of rising. Downstream traders mainly digested inventory. Market supply is strong and demand is weak, and downstream enthusiasm is poor. In March, the price of diammonium phosphate rose, and Hubei enterprises resumed production successively, with a return rate of 61%. The price tends to be stable after rising. The enterprise’s operating rate keeps rising, the spot supply is sufficient, and the number of new downstream purchase orders decreases.

Industrial chain: raw sulfur rose by 24.50% in the first quarter. In January, the domestic sulfur market was weak, the port inventory was high, the consumption was slow, there was no information guidance in the market, the main thing was to wait and see, and the price was weak and stable. Affected by the environmental protection policy, the downstream demand performance is low. In February, the domestic sulfur market was relatively strong and the domestic price was up, but the downstream construction was low, the port inventory was still high and the consumption was slow, there was no information guidance in the field, and the main thing was to watch carefully. In March, the domestic sulfur market was strong. In the early stage, with the successive resumption of downstream factories and the improvement of road transportation, major production units in various regions have increased their performance to varying degrees.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 23 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector in the first quarter of 2020, including 10 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 11.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase are isopropanol (57.44%), ammonium chloride (24.63%) and sulfur (24.50%). There are 59 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and 44 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 51.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were pure benzene (- 54.08%), propane (- 47.22%) and crude benzene (- 45.56%). This quarter’s average up or down was – 10.65%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business association ammonium phosphate think that in the first quarter of spring ploughing season, the peak season of phosphate fertilizer, fertilizer rose together. The price of ammonium phosphate rose because of the sharp rise in raw materials and the strong demand for downstream compound fertilizer. It is expected that the fertilizer market will weaken in the second quarter, and the stable trend of ammonium phosphate market will prevail. It is suggested to pay attention to the real-time market trends.