From October 8th to October 27th, 2026, the domestic electrolytic manganese market first fell and then rose, with a narrow range of fluctuations overall. The average market price on October 8th was 18050 yuan/ton, and on October 27th it was 18150 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 0.55% during the cycle.
After the National Day holiday, market trading gradually recovered. In the initial stage, downstream price suppression sentiment was heavy, and spot prices slightly weakened. With the rise of smelting prices and the emergence of cost support, the market rebounded slightly after hitting bottom. On exchange transactions mostly focused on long orders, while individual order activity was average, and the market atmosphere was strong. The overall fluctuation range of the electrolytic manganese market is limited, and there is a clear game of long and short in the market. Cost and production reduction expectations form support, but weak downstream demand suppresses the increase, and transactions are mainly based on long-term contract demand, with weak individual trading.
In terms of manganese ore: In October, the external quotation for manganese ore was slightly increased, and the cost of arrival at the port provided bottom support for electrolytic manganese. There is sufficient circulation of spot manganese ore at the port, and the upward space for ore prices is limited, making it difficult to drive the price of electrolytic manganese to rise significantly. The main production areas are gradually entering a dry season, with rising water and electricity costs and increased production costs for smelting enterprises. The profits of some small and medium-sized factories are being compressed, and the willingness to reduce production is increasing; But the mineral resources continue to arrive, with no obvious supply gap, and the cost side only serves as a bottom support, with insufficient upward driving force.
As the core raw material unloading port of the Southwest electrolytic manganese production area, Qinzhou Port in the south has continued to receive manganese ore this month, and the port inventory remains at a medium to high level. The ore market is relatively firm, and the price difference between high and low quality manganese ore remains stable. However, under the pressure of losses from downstream smelters, there is a significant pressure on procurement prices. Port spot prices show a pattern of firm quotes and weak actual transactions. Traders’ shipping pace has slowed down, and they mostly ship according to the demand of downstream smelters. The lack of sustained transaction support for the continuous rise of mineral prices.
Supply side: The performance of production in major production areas such as Guangxi, Yunnan Guizhou, and Hunan is differentiated, while large smelting enterprises maintain normal production schedules and prioritize the delivery of long-term contract orders; Due to factors such as high electricity prices and weak profits during the dry season, some small and medium-sized smelters have taken the initiative to reduce load and conduct periodic maintenance to control production. Manufacturers have a clear mentality of being reluctant to sell and raising prices, and there is a shortage of low-priced sources of goods. However, there has been no concentrated production stoppage in the industry, social inventory remains neutral, and there is no substantial shortage of supply; If the market continues to rise, the expectation of incremental resumption of production will also increase, suppressing the upward space of prices, and the temporary supply contraction will be difficult to drive the trend upward.
On the demand side: In October, the downstream stainless steel industry saw an increase in maintenance and load reduction production capacity, resulting in a slower pace of finished product destocking. The procurement attitude was cautious, and there was a widespread practice of price cutting in bidding, with a focus on long-term procurement for essential needs and a weak willingness to replenish scattered inventory; The downstream demand for lithium manganese oxide batteries has not recovered as expected, downstream enterprises have low production, limited new orders, and it is difficult to form a strong driving force. Traders tend to adopt a wait-and-see approach and maintain a low level of enthusiasm for chasing price increases. Export inquiries are light, and overall demand support is weak, which remains the main factor restricting the strength of the market.
Market forecast: The short-term supply-demand game pattern of electrolytic manganese continues, and the willingness to raise prices at the smelting end is still present. However, the weak downstream demand situation is difficult to improve quickly, and it is expected that electrolytic manganese will maintain a narrow range oscillation trend. The upward pressure comes from the limited acceptance of high priced sources downstream and the continuous price suppression; The support below relies on the cost of manganese ore and the expected reduction in production during the dry season. In the future, the focus will be on changes in production in the main production areas, the pace of resuming stainless steel production, monthly bidding pricing, and the arrival of manganese ore. If there is no concentrated recovery in downstream demand, electrolytic manganese will find it difficult to break out of the trend market and will mainly experience narrow fluctuations.
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