1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China has been rising steadily this week, with the weekly low price of 6332 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the weekly high price of 6657 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly increase of 5.13%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Product: last month, Shandong propylene price soared and plummeted, and then remained stable again, and the market was stable. During the May 1st period, the price of propylene slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. On the 6th, the price went up by 100 yuan / ton again. On the 7th, 8th and 9th, the price went up by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 10th, some enterprises went up by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 11th, they went up by 50 yuan / ton again. On the 12th, they went up by 100-200 yuan / ton obviously. On the 13th, they went up by 100-200 yuan / ton continuously. On the 14th, they went up by 50-100 yuan / ton again. Today, they are still up by 50-100 yuan / ton. Now, the market The turnover is between 6600-6800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is around 6600 yuan / ton. At present, propylene inventory is low, goods are slightly in short supply, and shipment is relatively smooth.

Industry chain: influenced by the international situation, the international crude oil price rose significantly at the end of last week. Now, the crude oil is still rising, but the trend is slowing down. Influenced by the international events on August 8, the crude oil rose again significantly. On November 11, the crude oil went down slightly. In the later period, the crude oil price increased slightly, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.

Affected by public health events, the modified special material in PP last month was melt blown cloth material, and the price rose sharply in the early stage. Now, the price of melt blown cloth has been lowered, and PP futures have been restored to rationality. This week, PP spot has stepped down, with a weekly decline of 3.67%, slightly negative impact on propylene.

This week, acrylic acid market continued to rise, up 2.93%, slightly positive impact on propylene.

This week’s propylene oxide market also continued to rise, up 3.35% week on propylene small positive impact.

Epichlorohydrin was up in shock this week, up 2.99%, which had a little positive impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic price of n-butanol rose continuously, with a weekly increase of 4.78%, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.

In the first ten days, octanol market fluctuated steadily, with weekly increase of only 0.84%, which had little impact on propylene.

Affected by the epidemic situation, the isopropanol market, as one of the raw materials of foreign disinfectants, experienced a sharp rise in the early period and a steady decline. This week, it was up in shock, with a weekly increase of 4.19%, which may still have a positive impact on propylene.

The phenol Market in Shandong Province remained stable this week, with a weekly decline of 0.54%, which had little impact on propylene.

The acetone market in Shandong Province was stable and fluctuated after rising this week, with a weekly increase of 3.85% and a weekly amplitude of 4.49%, which had limited positive impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, on the whole, the international crude oil market has a positive support, and the price has been rising for many times, which has a certain supporting effect on propylene. However, the downstream operation rate is relatively high, propylene inventory is not much, and the recent shipment is still relatively smooth. Currently, there is a small increase in the downstream. However, the increase of propylene for several consecutive days still puts pressure on the downstream. It is expected that the price of propylene will stabilize after a small increase in recent days.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of May 14, the average price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-quality power product in China, was 39000.00 yuan / ton, down 1000 yuan / ton from the previous day.

market analysis

Product: the domestic power type premium product lithium iron phosphate is in weak and stable operation. Now the mainstream market price range is 36000-39000 yuan / ton, which is 1000 yuan / ton lower than the previous day. At present, the domestic power type lithium iron phosphate demand is weak, which leads to a slight decline in price, and the order quantity is difficult to increase. The domestic power type lithium iron phosphate has excess capacity, and the market grabs orders seriously, so the enterprises are forced to reduce price and let the profits go The price competition of lithium iron oxide is fierce, and the price basically hovers on the cost line.

Industry chain: the price of upstream lithium carbonate keeps falling in the near future, and the inventory is overstocked seriously. The manufacturer actively ships the product and leaves the single price below the cost. The cost of lithium iron phosphate is not well supported, which then declines. At present, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 43000-44000 yuan / ton, and that of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 34000-39000 yuan / ton.

Industry: on May 13, the chemical industry index was 638, the same as yesterday, 37.20% lower than the highest point 1016 (2012-03-13), and 6.69% higher than the lowest point 598 on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Future forecast

Iron lithium phosphate analysts believe that: in the short term, the weak operation of domestic power-driven high-grade lithium iron phosphate has the possibility of further price reduction. (the above prices are provided by the major manufacturers of lithium iron phosphate all over the country and analyzed by the analysts of lithium iron phosphate in the business. For reference only, please contact the relevant manufacturers for more details.)

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market situation of PA66 in China continued to be weak in the first half of May, and the prices of various brands were still slowly reduced. As of Thursday, May 14, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 is about 19150.00 yuan / ton, down 3.77% from the average price at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of influencing factors:

The market of adipic acid in the upper reaches of PA66 is stable at low level. Most of the spot price adjustments are weak. The manufacturers still maintain a high rate of start-up, but they still haven’t reached the level of shipment before the outbreak. At present, the social inventory pressure is general, but the demand is not strong, the business delivery is blocked, and the supply and demand in the field are not prosperous. The price of pure benzene at the cost end has increased recently, but under the current situation of shrinking orders at home and abroad, the price of adipic acid is difficult to improve in the near future;

The upstream adipic acid gave poor support to the PA66 cost side. The market price of PA66 continued to weaken in the first ten days of this month, and the market side continued to be negative. On the supply side, PA66 spot showed consistent adequacy, and the starting load of downstream plants was low. The consumption of PA66 plastic products is at a low level, and the imbalance between supply and demand is increasingly obvious, which is difficult to boost the market. There is little trading on the floor and little trading news.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe: in early May, the domestic PA66 market continued to adjust its weak position. The spot price of adipic acid in the upstream is low, which is not good for PA66. The return rate of downstream factories needs to be improved. The replenishment operation is rigid and the demand is very limited. The contradiction between supply and demand in the market is the main reason for the weakness of the market and the lack of confidence in the future. It is expected that PA66 market will not improve in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Affected by the tight supply of goods in some regions, the domestic ethanol market rose again. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 14, the price of domestic ethanol market was 5775 yuan / ton, 9.74% higher than that of the same period last month, and 10.63% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the domestic ethanol market in East China and Henan is on the rise. The ethanol market in the north of Jiangsu Province in East China is up, the surrounding price is up, and the enterprise’s quotation is up; the ethanol market in Henan Province is up, the raw material price is high, and the enterprise is waiting for the increase of vehicles; the ethanol price in Shandong Province is in order and operation, and the enterprise’s anhydrous price is back to normal; the corn ethanol market in Jilin Province in Northeast China is stable, large-scale orders are delivered, and the inventory is low; the raw material price in Heilongjiang Province is high At present, the low price of the enterprise is not available, the order of the enterprise is delivered, and the quotation of some enterprises is increased; the negotiation focus of the ethanol market in South China and Guangdong Province is down. Guangdong has no shortage of water and its price remains at a high level. Although there are other sources of goods coming to Hong Kong in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, there are sufficient sources of goods in the hands of traders in the market at present, which is affected by the decrease of Guangdong Province. Guangxi molasses ethanol market is waiting and watching. At present, molasses ethanol enterprises order shipment, individual enterprises inventory is not high, and the price is high. Anhydrous ethanol enterprises inventory is low, and the price is firm. Anhui Province The regional ethanol market rose, affected by the price rise in East China, and the price of enterprises increased.

Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, corn: corn prices continue to fall. The temperature in most parts of Northeast China is rising, the sowing progress is speeding up, the multi field corn sowing is close to the end, and the planting area of intending corn in the production area is expected to increase. At present, most of the domestic corn is controlled in the trade link, and the surplus grain inventory at the grass-roots level has declined significantly. We predict that in the near future, the probability of corn price continuing to be stable, moderate and strong is still high, and this judgment will not be changed temporarily. It is worth mentioning that more than half of the temporary storage corn is in Heilongjiang area. Affected by the new crown epidemic in Heilongjiang, the temporary storage auction may be delayed. The probability of starting grain auction after the middle of May is higher. It is expected that the corn price will show a new trend after the temporary storage auction is started. This change is more likely to occur after the late May.

Ethyl acetate: the domestic market of ethyl acetate is light. The mainstream manufacturers are mainly stable in price and delivery, but the downstream substantial demand is limited, and the digestion cycle is long, resulting in insufficient transaction of new orders in the market. However, the inventory quantity of mainstream manufacturers is low, and there is no inventory pressure for the time being, so stable price and offer are mainly maintained. The spot supply in South China market is sufficient, and the downstream demand continues to be weak, leading to partial competition among suppliers and weak market. In the short term, the domestic market of ethyl acetate in East China and North China is stable, while the market in South China is weak at different stages.

3、 Future forecast

The ethanol analyst of business club predicted that the price of domestic ethanol market remained stable in the short term, large-scale orders were delivered, there were few enterprises in stock, the auction of raw corn was delayed, the price of corn continued to rise, the ethanol production enterprises had high-pressure production, the enterprises were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the export orders continued, slightly slower than last month’s performance, and the middlemen had a high wait-and-see mood under the current high price Recently, the goods from other places in the South have not yet arrived at the port of Guangdong. The owners have a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the short-term market will be stable and wait-and-see.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China fell slightly. As of May 13, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic method was 5025 yuan / ton. The price of phthalic anhydride in China was stable, slightly decreased, the demand of plasticizer industry was normal, and the market of phthalic anhydride was stagnant.

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has dropped slightly. The market demand of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the market of phthalic anhydride is general. However, the fluctuation of crude oil price has boosted domestic petrochemical products, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is stagnant. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the site is more than 60%, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the procurement of downstream plasticizer industry is general, the market of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is general, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is slightly down. By the end of the 13th, the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China had declined slightly, but the high-end transactions in the market were blocked. The main flow of negotiation of neighboring France’s source of goods in East China was 4900-5100 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene’s source of goods was 4500-4700 yuan / ton. The main flow of quotation in the phthalic anhydride market in North China was 4700-5000 yuan / ton, and the wait-and-see mentality in the phthalic anhydride market was still there. The market price of phthalic anhydride was general, and the price of phthalic anhydride was stable.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 4000 yuan / ton, and the price of imported phthalic anhydride in the port area fluctuates and rises, maintaining stability. In the near future, the price of phthalic acid in the port area is general, and the price of phthalic anhydride in the external market rises. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, with detailed discussion. Affected by the fluctuation of the price of phthalic anhydride upstream raw material, the price of phthalic anhydride market is mainly stalemate.

The downstream DOP market price is higher, the price of isooctanol is warmer and higher, DOP enterprises operate at low load, and DOP manufacturers stock sales. DOP price rises, PVC enterprise equipment starts normal, customer procurement enthusiasm is stable. The price of plasticizer fluctuates and rises. The market price of DOP is about 6700-7000 yuan / ton. The market price of plasticizer is generally active, high-speed charges are increased, and logistics and transportation costs are increased. The downward pressure of DOP market in the future still has a strong driving force. Supported by the favorable downstream price, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate in the later period.

1、 Trend analysis

 
According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on May 13, the spot nickel price was 100650 yuan / ton, down 2.15% from the previous trading day, 11.5% from the beginning of the year, up 2.91% year on year. Shanghai nickel mainly opened at 101020 yuan, and then the price first suppressed and then rose, closing at 100900 yuan, up 0.03%. LME3 closed at $12285 at the end of the month, unchanged from last day’s closing price.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, nickel price fluctuates widely. Norilsk Nickel Co., Ltd. of Russia expects that the nickel market will supply 130000 tons of excess in 2020, and the global nickel market will supply excess in 2020, which is expected to make nickel price under pressure. London Metal Exchange (LME) 13 Lun Ni inventory at 233310 metric tons, compared with the previous trading day inventory level. China’s nickel production rose, with refined nickel production rising 5.7% month on month (MOM) in April, up 9% year-on-year to 1472 tons. In addition, on May 12, the Tariff Commission of the State Council announced the second exclusion list of the second batch of goods subject to tariff on the United States and Canada, which mainly includes: rare earth metal ore, silver ore and its concentrate, gold ore, nickel alloy plate / sheet / strip / foil, nickel alloy wire, nickel alloy tube, aluminum alloy tube, titanium tube, nickel cadmium battery, etc.

3、 Future prospects

Future forecast: the increase of production and the oversupply of nickel market are expected to put the nickel price under pressure, but the downstream stainless steel consumption turns better and the inventory drops, supporting the nickel price. It is expected that nickel price will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term.

On May 13, the hydrogen peroxide commodity index was 81.52, unchanged from yesterday, down 62.43% from 216.98 (2017-12-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 13.63% from 71.74, the lowest point on August 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data monitoring of the business agency: since May, the terminal demand is still low, and the price of hydrogen peroxide continues the weak market in April, and the price continues to fall. As of May 13, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide fell to 750 yuan / ton, 5.86% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

market analysis

Products: after the May Day holiday, due to the decline of the downstream product export volume of hydrogen peroxide, the industry is in a recession, the demand for hydrogen peroxide continues to be depressed, the supply is loose, the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide of some manufacturers continues to be lowered, the mainstream quotation is 700-850 yuan / ton, and the price drops about 50 yuan / ton. Although the market of terminal caprolactam products is rising, it has little supporting effect on hydrogen peroxide, which is still difficult to change the weak situation.

As of May 13, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in each region is as follows:

Shandong Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Luxi Chemical Industry is 700 yuan / ton, 40 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month.

Hebei Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Zhengyuan fertilizer industry is 700 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month.

Anhui Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Quansheng, Anhui Province is 850 yuan / ton, the same as that at the beginning of the month.

Hunan: Hunan Shuangyang 27.5% hydrogen peroxide price is 900 yuan / ton, which is the same as that at the beginning of the month.

Zhejiang: Hangzhou Mingxin 27.5% hydrogen peroxide quoted price of 950 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the month.

Industry chain: the terminal caprolactam is in short supply, the raw materials are rising, and the price is rising. The paper and printing industry is limited by the decline of export volume, the market is weak, the demand for hydrogen peroxide is relatively low, and the market is weak, mainly declining.

Future prospects

Li Bing, an analyst with hydrogen peroxide of the business club, believes that the rise of terminal caprolactam market is expected to boost the price of hydrogen peroxide back to the rising market, and the price of hydrogen peroxide in the future may stop rising.

In April, affected by the sluggish demand of China and India and other major coal importing countries, the international power coal market was more pessimistic, and the downward pressure on coal prices remained unchanged.

According to the latest monitoring data of the General Administration of customs, in April 2020, China imported 30.948 million tons of coal and lignite, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%; from January to April, China imported 126.726 million tons of coal and lignite, a year-on-year increase of 26.9%, and the average import price was 510.1 yuan per ton, down 4.9%. Although the number of imported coal has increased, the average price still shows a downward trend, which to some extent reflects the essence of pressure operation of the international coal market.

“In April, China’s multi regional customs import policy tightened, while some power plants delayed the bidding plan for imported coal, and the international power coal market became more pessimistic; India, another big coal import country, began to implement the blocking measures in late March. In April, the coal import also “fell sharply. In addition, recently, the Indian government asked domestic power enterprises to use domestic coal to reduce the coal import used for mixing.” Analysts said.

The author finds that the demand of the two major coal importing countries has declined significantly, which aggravates the downward pressure of the international power coal price. In terms of Australian coal, the FOB price of Australian coal fell all the way in April. By the end of April, the FOB price of 5500 kcal of Australian coal had fallen to about $41, down $12 or 22.64% from about $53 at the beginning of the month. In terms of Indonesian coal, as of the end of April, the price of 3800 kcal of Indonesian coal was about 26 US dollars, which had fallen below the cost line of some coal mines, and some coal miners had taken measures to stop production; however, the reference price of power coal (HbAS) released by the Ministry of energy and mineral resources of Indonesia in May 2020 was 61.11 US dollars / ton, still 7.09% lower than the price of 65.77 US dollars / ton in April, a new low since August 2016; Compared with the same period of last year, 81.86 USD / ton decreased by 25.35%.

In addition, the Baltic dry bulk index fluctuated at a low level in April. As of April 29, the overall dry bulk index was 643 points, up 95 points or 17.34% from 548 points in the same period last month. The Baltic Capesize Index rose 995 points to 926, the Baltic Panamax index fell 12 points to 732, and the super convenience index fell 202 points to 404, or 33.33%.

“The CIF price continued to decline, the price of foreign mines was under pressure, the driving force for the rise of international sea freight was insufficient, and the CIF price of imported coal with calorific value continued to decline in April.” Ren Huiyun said. China’s power coal CIF index shows that as of April 24, the average value of each calorific value index in April has declined to varying degrees compared with the average value in March, among which the average value of 3800 kcal imported coal in South China in April is 32.92 USD / ton, down 5.55 USD / ton compared with the average value in March of 38.47 USD / ton, the most obvious decline, reaching 14.42%.

One enterprise person told the author that in the near future, the contradiction between supply and demand still exists in China. With the temperature rising gradually, the daily consumption of key power plants has increased, but under the restriction of high inventory, it is still dominated by digesting its own inventory, the actual purchase demand is limited, and the support of demand for imported coal price under the background of supply exceeding demand is limited; However, after the sharp decline in the price of imported coal in the early stage, some miners have issued relevant quotation measures. On the whole, it is expected that the decline in the price of imported coal in the later stage will be gradually narrowed, and in the short term, the price of coal may be dominated by weak operation, and it is still necessary to focus on the changes in domestic demand and import policies.

However, for this month’s coal price aftermarket, Chen Tianyu, manager of power and coal department of Weihe energy price center, believes that the stability is stronger than the stability, and the spot downward momentum is not strong. But the rising space is not large for the time being. It is more influenced by emotions.

By the end of this afternoon, Zheng coal’s main contract in 2009 was on the rise, with the opening price of 505.6, closing price of 509.8, up 1.15% (5.8), trading volume of 110800 and position of 214400; the port price stabilized, high calorie and low sulfur coal varieties were in short supply, and the demand side of coal price rose against the demand for better performance.

According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of power coal (port) is around 471.75 yuan / ton, 0.16% higher than that on May 11. In the near future, the price of power coal has ended a continuous decline and recovered. In terms of production area, affected by the recent high-speed recovery charges, the cost of transportation in production area increased, and the number of coal hauling vehicles in some areas decreased significantly. Due to the limited downstream demand, the main producer price of power coal at this stage is still weak. However, the port market shows signs of stabilizing and rising slightly. From the downstream power plants, as of May 12, the inventory of six coastal power plants is 15.1278 million tons, the daily coal consumption is 642000 tons, and the available days are 23.56 days. Since May, the national temperature is significantly higher, the daily consumption of power plants is significantly increased, but the inventory is still high. The actual procurement demand is limited, and the background of supply exceeding demand continues. The inventory of six major power plants has declined, but the current inventory level is still on the high side.

Business analysts believe that: after May 1st, highway recovery charges, coal downstream users more on-demand procurement, poor mine market shipments, price pressure. The market demand of downstream power plants has picked up slightly, driving the price of power coal to rise slightly. Generally speaking, the price of power coal may rise slightly in the short term, but in the long term, the pressure of power coal supply and demand contradiction still exists, the weak demand situation of port market is still obvious, and the space for power coal to rise in the later period is insufficient.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of May 12, the average price of domestic power product lithium iron phosphate was 40000.00 yuan / ton, and the market remained stable.

market analysis

Product: the domestic power type high-quality product lithium iron phosphate maintains stable operation. Now the mainstream market price range is 36000-4000 yuan / ton. Lithium iron materials are mainly self supplied, with few outsourcing orders, which has little impact on the whole market. BYD is currently the world’s largest supplier of lithium iron phosphate with the largest production capacity. Its battery technology is recognized by the world, and lithium iron phosphate is used as a new energy battery At the same time, domestic enterprises have made efforts frequently, and domestic lithium iron phosphate has begun to march into the overseas market. The advantages of lithium iron phosphate are low cost, good safety performance and rapid technological progress.

Industry chain: the quotation of some upstream lithium carbonate enterprises was slightly reduced. At present, the overall supply of lithium salt is relatively sufficient, the demand side performance is still poor, and the market trading atmosphere is general.

Industry: on May 11, the chemical industry index was 636, up 3 points from yesterday, down 37.40% from 1016 (2012-03-13), and up 6.35% from 598, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Future forecast

According to the analyst of lithium iron phosphate of business association, lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product in China, will maintain stable operation in the short term. (the above prices are provided by the major manufacturers of lithium iron phosphate all over the country and analyzed by the analysts of lithium iron phosphate in the business. For reference only, please contact the relevant manufacturers for more details.)