1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of the business association, the average price of the main market of 180CST fuel oil in China as of January 31 was 5030.00 yuan / ton, up and down 9.87% compared with 4578.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

On January 31, the fuel oil commodity index was 101.87, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.11% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 121.07% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the price of domestic fuel oil rose sharply this month, with low inventory. The mainstream price at the end of the month was about 5100 yuan / ton. On January 31, the spot price of Singapore fuel oil (high sulfur 380cst) was 284.76 US dollars / ton, down 9.83 US dollars / ton compared with the previous day (converted to 1972 yuan / ton at the RMB exchange rate of that day). According to data released by ESG, the stock of residual fuel oil (excluding asphalt) in Singapore increased by 737000 barrels to 22355000 barrels in the week ended January 29, including fuel oil and low sulfur and waxy residual oil; the stock of light distillate oil increased by 84000 barrels to 13005600 barrels; the stock of medium distillate oil increased by 389000 barrels to 11212000 barrels.

Industry chain: according to the monitoring of business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States at the beginning of the month is 61.68 USD / barrel, 58.54 USD / barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of – 5.09%; Brent crude oil at the beginning of the month is 68.44 USD / barrel, with a monthly increase or decrease of – 5.25% at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of – 5.09%. At the beginning of the month, the tense situation in Iran and the rapid rise of international oil price, however, with Trump’s comments easing, the international crude oil price fell sharply. In the following two weeks, the long and short factors of the international crude oil market were intertwined, and there was no decisive factor for the time being. The sharp increase in fuel oil this month is mainly due to the tight supply of low sulfur asphalt and residual oil, the sharp increase in price, and the price difference in domestic trade and foreign trade ship fuel market.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 8 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in January 2020, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase are fuel oil (9.87%), methanol (9.12%) and dimethyl ether (7.17%). There are 7 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are liquefied natural gas (- 17.45%), Brent crude oil (- 5.25%) and WTI crude oil (- 5.09%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 0.77%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business club think that logistics is greatly limited due to a series of factors such as Spring Festival. At present, it is expected to recover after February 10. It is expected that the fuel oil market price in February will fall slightly, and the price range may be 4900-5100 yuan / ton.

On February 4, the PX commodity index was 54.00, flat with yesterday, 47.27% lower than 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 18.55% higher than 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is significantly lower, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi is started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai is started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant is overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX plant is put into operation, other units are temporarily stable, and domestic p-xylene plant is opened The working rate is about 70%, and the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. However, in the near future, the price of crude oil has fallen sharply, and the market price of p-xylene has fallen sharply. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On February 4, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia dropped by 4 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 710-712 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 730-732 US dollars / ton CFR in China. About 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The sharp decline of external market price has a certain negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the price trend of p-xylene market has declined.

Recently, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell to US $49.61/barrel, or US $0.50, while Brent crude oil futures fell to US $53.96/barrel, or US $0.49. The oil market has not escaped this round of Black Swan – after another round of big fall, crude oil inevitably entered the bear market. The pattern of oversupply originally depressed the price of crude oil. However, the sudden outbreak has further increased the concern of global energy demand. Now, Saudi Arabia has been unable to sit still. The news that OPEC is planning to cut production is frequently heard in the market. However, the oil price is still “falling constantly”. Whether this measure of reducing production can work, it may also be said that the decline of crude oil price is bad for domestic chemical prices, and the domestic price trend of p-xylene is significantly lower.

In terms of raw material PTA, the recent price has dropped sharply to the level of 4300-4400 yuan / ton. At present, the PTA processing fee has dropped to about 50 yuan / ton, and the processing fee before the festival is nearly 600 yuan / ton. The new production capacity before the festival is put into use, and the current operating rate remains high. During the Spring Festival, the accumulated inventory is obvious, the social inventory is increased by nearly 30% compared with that before the festival, and the light transaction price in the spot market has fallen down. Affected by the epidemic situation, the downstream construction is postponed Later, in addition to the limited logistics, the unsmooth transportation of the industrial chain leads to the accumulation of inventory. In the future, the downstream textile will face the situation of delayed production or even contract breaking of orders. The downstream demand of PTA will worsen, the market price of PTA will fall sharply, and the price trend of p-xylene will decline.

In the near future, crude oil prices have fallen sharply, which has a certain negative impact on the xylene market. In addition, the downstream demand of the terminal has not improved significantly. Business analysts believe that PX market price may remain low.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China is slightly lower. As of February 5, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic acid process is 6037.5 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride in China is slightly lower, the demand of plasticizer industry is not improved, and the market of phthalic anhydride is in a downturn.

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has been slightly lower. Affected by the epidemic situation, the transportation of chemicals is limited. The inventory of some phthalic anhydride manufacturers has increased and the delivery situation is poor. In East China, the market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride has fallen, downstream factories have shut down a lot, factory inventory pressure has increased, and high-end transactions have been blocked. Recently, the factory inventory has increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and naphthalene process is 5800-6200 yuan / ton and 5700-5900 yuan / ton respectively; in North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 5800-6100 yuan / ton. Most of the manufacturers in the site have price callback, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, and the wait-and-see mentality is strong. The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is under normal operation, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is sufficient, in addition to phthalic anhydride The demand for phthalic anhydride is not good, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride is slightly down.

In the near future, the execution price of phthalic anhydride upstream products in China on February 5 is 6300 yuan / ton. The import phthalic acid Market in the port area is temporarily stable and the quotation is stable. In the near future, the port phthalic acid market is stable and the port inventory is increased. The external quotation of phthalic acid is stable. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. Influenced by the upstream raw material phthalic acid price support, the decline of phthalic anhydride market price is limited.

In the downstream, the price of DOP raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the cost of DOP raw material fell, the start-up of DOP enterprises was basically normal, the start-up rate fell, during the anti epidemic period, the logistics was limited, the transportation was difficult, and the inventory of DOP manufacturers was high. The price of DOP fell, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers was poor, the price of downstream PVC fluctuated and remained stable, the equipment of PVC enterprises started at a low level, and the mainstream price of DOP market was about 7100-7500 yuan / ton. In the future, the downward pressure of DOP remains, the upward momentum increases, the trend of downstream price declines slightly, and the upstream ox price remains volatile. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain a slight downward trend in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, in January, the trend of domestic polysilicon was not changed much compared with that of the previous month. Before the market accepted the trend at the beginning of the month, it went down with the trend, and then stopped falling, but did not usher in an increase. According to the monitoring, the monthly decline was 1.18%. The market stalemate is mainly stable, and the purchase volume of the downstream before the festival has not increased, mainly due to the influence of the light atmosphere around the Spring Festival. Before that, most of the enterprises have signed the bill. At the end of the month, the market price has no market, and the supply pressure has eased slightly. As of January 31, the average external quotation of the enterprises was 52000-56000 yuan / ton, and the current price has dropped about 20% compared with the previous year. At present, the domestic single crystal is still stable, the price range of compact material is 680-700 million yuan / ton, and the price difference of single polycrystalline is not much different from that of last month.

2、 Market analysis

From the perspective of market supply and demand, the supply pressure is still moderate. In January, 12 polysilicon production enterprises mainly operated normally with partial load reduction. According to the production plan of each enterprise, the enterprise’s inventory control was effective and did not form a huge social inventory pressure. In addition, the two enterprises in South Korea shut down production for maintenance in January and February, and the domestic import volume will be reduced accordingly, which also slowed down the domestic supply pressure to some extent. From the comparison of monocrystal and polycrystal, the performance of monocrystal silicon is slightly better than polycrystal silicon, which occupies part of the demand of polycrystal silicon. The growth of monocrystal production is still continuing, and the demand is increasing. According to the situation of manufacturers, in polysilicon enterprises, after the order signing year, the market purchase volume has increased slightly. Although the price remains low, the order has increased significantly. On the other hand, the single crystal inventory of silicon material enterprises has been completely digested during the low price period of the market a few weeks ago, and there is no more supply pressure, so the price of single crystal has not been shaken, the downward pressure of polycrystalline silicon has also been eased, and the market is rigid and stable.

Let’s take a look at the demand: since January 2020, polysilicon demand has remained rigid and stable, and the price has stabilized. Most of the orders in the downstream before the festival are placed in advance, and most of the orders are signed in February. The transaction price of some enterprises shows a slight recovery. On the one hand, due to the rigid demand in the downstream, the purchasing base gas at the end of the lunar year, and the polysilicon operation rate has increased to 100%, which also confirms the following The improvement of travel demand is not entirely optimistic, which is inseparable from the Spring Festival procurement peak. The downstream stock up is completed. The previous expectation is that the enterprise will gradually accumulate the stock after the festival, but at present, affected by the epidemic situation, the enterprise starts a little late, the stock pressure may not be too large, and the downstream consumption of polycrystalline will slow down. It is expected that the market will be empty in the first ten days of February Window period.

3、 Future forecast

In the future, business analysts believe that the price of polysilicon is expected to be mainly stable. Since the enterprise has not started yet, the inventory pressure is not great. The order was full before this year, and the enterprise’s operating rate will reach the freezing point after the festival, and the downstream order may be reduced. However, with the recovery of downstream demand after the outbreak, polysilicon market may pick up.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride rose sharply in January. As of January 31, the average price of acetic anhydride enterprises was 4775.00 yuan / ton, up 6.11% from 4500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 23.80% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product analysis:

In January, the price of acetic anhydride rose sharply. The ex factory quotation in North China was about 4700-4800 yuan / ton, the quotation in East China was about 5000 yuan / ton, and the quotation in South China was about 5300 yuan / ton. The quotation rose, and the actual transaction price rose about 200 yuan / ton. The acetic anhydride manufacturer’s inventory is low, Yankuang’s acetic anhydride inventory is low, and the shipment is difficult. Hualu Hengsheng’s acetic anhydride inventory is low, and the normal shipment, the acetic anhydride supply is insufficient, and the downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm increases. The market of acetic anhydride is good, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride is increasing.

Industry chain factor analysis:

It can be seen from the figure that in January, the price of acetic acid rose sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, the pressure of acetic anhydride rising increased, the market of acetic anhydride was good, and the price of acetic anhydride rose.

It can be seen from the figure that in January, the price of methanol increased, the cost of acetic anhydride increased, the pressure of acetic anhydride increased, and the price of acetic anhydride increased, which is good for the future market of acetic anhydride.

3、 Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data of business association, in January, the price of acetic anhydride raw materials acetic acid and methanol rose sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride rose sharply, the market of acetic anhydride was favorable, and the price of acetic anhydride rose; the stock of acetic anhydride manufacturers was low, the delivery was difficult, the supply of acetic anhydride was insufficient, and the power of acetic anhydride market rose increased; the impact of force majeure events, national control, logistics and transportation were difficult, and the operating rate of enterprises was low In the future, the market of acetic anhydride is expected to maintain stability in the short term and increase in the medium and long term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of plasticizer DOP fell in January, and the market of DOP fell. As of January 31, the price of DOP in East China was 7300.00 yuan / ton, down 1.13% from 7383.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 13.44% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

It can be seen from the figure that in January, the price of DOP raw material octanol fell in shock, which was bad for DOP market, the cost of plasticizer fell, the upward momentum of DOP weakened, the downward pressure increased, and the overall DOP market was bad.

In terms of phthalic anhydride, the price of phthalic anhydride fell in January, the cost of DOP fell sharply, which was negative for DOP market. The downward pressure of DOP is high.

3、 Future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP business agency, in January, DOP raw material prices continued to fall, DOP costs fell, and DOP downward pressure increased. Affected by the force majeure event, the equipment of the enterprise started at a low level, the logistics stopped, the high-speed transportation was difficult, the downstream customers started to reduce, the demand fell, and the overall supply and demand fell. Generally speaking, the downward pressure of DOP was large, and the DOP price remained stable in the short term.

In the near future, the price trend of rare earth in China has remained stable. Near the Spring Festival holiday, the trading atmosphere in the market is light. The price trend chart of some rare earth products in China:

In recent years, the price trend of domestic heavy rare earth market is stable, as of the 21st day, the price of dysprosium oxide is 1.7 million yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.685 million yuan / ton; the price trend of domestic light rare earth market is stable, as of the 21st day, the price of neodymium oxide is 292000 yuan / ton, the price trend is stable; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 358000 yuan / ton, the price trend is stable; the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 279000 yuan / ton, the price is stable The price of neodymium is 367500 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price trend of domestic rare earth market is stable. Affected by favorable national policies, the domestic rare earth market remains high.

On January 20, the rare earth index was 338, unchanged from yesterday, 66.20% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1000 (2011-12-06), and 24.72% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In recent years, the market price of rare earth has stopped falling and stabilized. According to statistics, the export volume of domestic rare earth market in December increased significantly. The export volume of China’s rare earth in December was 3657.3 tons, an increase of about 38.7% compared with the export volume in November. The significant increase in export volume is good for the domestic rare earth market, and the domestic rare earth price trend remains high. In addition, in the near future, the demand for permanent magnet remains high, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products rebounds, the on-site supply is normal, the recent demand for light rare earth is general, and the market price changes little. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

Geng Shuang, a spokesman for the former foreign ministry, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has always adhered to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoted the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to use rare earth resources and products to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world, so as to promote China’s economy and the world Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. The export volume of domestic rare earth products has increased, which is good for the market price of domestic rare earth. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and 2019 is the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The price of rare earth in the domestic market remained high and volatile.

Rare earth analysts of business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced, coupled with favorable domestic support for the export of rare earth industry, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market will remain high after the Spring Festival, and the trend of light rare earth market will be improved.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of SG5 of carbide method), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on January 21 was 6825 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous day, and the market was temporarily stable, up 7.48%%% compared with the same period last year. On January 21, the PVC commodity index was 86.48, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.52% from the highest point in the cycle, 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 48.41% from the lowest point, 58.27, on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: near the Spring Festival, PVC market trend is stable. In recent days, the spot market has been light in trading, downstream factories have been on holiday, the intention to prepare goods before the festival is light, there are not many sporadic replenishments, and the traders continue to withdraw from the market, market transactions tend to stagnate. At present, the social inventory of PVC continues to increase, and the operation rate of upstream PVC factories decreases. The inventory increase during the Spring Festival holiday may be lower than that of the same period last year, and the enterprises are facing certain pressure. In the demand side dominated situation, PVC spot price trend is weak. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of January 21, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6600-6950 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou district is 6850-6950 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou district is 6750-6950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou district is 6850-6920 yuan / ton. The real deal can be negotiated.

Futures: on Monday, PVC main v2005 contracts were narrowed, closing at 6470 yuan / ton, compared with – 5 yuan on the previous trading day; trading volume was 68333 hands, + 10569 hands; positions were 197607 hands, – 4819 hands, basis difference was 280 yuan, + 5 yuan; 5-9 price difference was 40 yuan, + 20 yuan. Futures closed up 10 at 6490.

News: on January 17, the National Bureau of statistics released data on investment and sales of real estate development nationwide from January to December 2019. Accordingly, in 2019, the national real estate development investment was 13219.4 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9% over the previous year, and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous year. Among them, residential investment reached 9707.1 billion yuan, an increase of 13.9%, 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous year. The new construction area changed from negative to positive year on year, showing a positive trend.

Industry chain: disturbed by various news, although the US Iraq conflict temporarily released the easing signal, the contradiction still exists, and there is certain uncertainty in the direction of the situation. In the short term, crude oil will continue to fluctuate broadly, and ethylene market will rise. As for calcium carbide, the capital return of each factory is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, the production capacity is increased, and the price is slightly increased.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on January 20, 2020, there was a total of one kind of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, with PA66 (0.09%) rising. There are two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, the first two products falling are PP (- 1.53%) and natural rubber (- 0.24%). The average price of this day was – 0.11%.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that: near the Spring Festival, the factory’s operating rate is at a low level, and it is difficult to make a big change in the downstream demand end, so it is expected that PVC will run smoothly before the festival.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (January 21): 503.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic sulfur market is stable and the atmosphere is quiet. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the quotation of various regions in China is stable. The mainstream price of solid sulfur in East China of Sinopec is 520-610 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 490-580 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of solid sulfur in North China is 400-440 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 380-420 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Shandong is 480-510 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 400-450 yuan / ton.

At present, the port inventory is high, consumption is slow, the atmosphere of on-site negotiation is cold, and the market performance is quiet. The downstream sulfuric acid market maintains stable operation. The price of the mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong Province is temporarily stable. The inventory of manufacturers is small, the downstream demand is general, and the sulfuric acid market is dominated by low consolidation.

Future market forecast: at present, the domestic sulfur market is quiet, the port is still high in inventory and slow in consumption, the contradiction between supply and demand is still the same, the Spring Festival holiday is coming, the on-site operators are mainly cautious and wait-and-see, and the sulfur market is weak and stable.

Us WTI crude oil February futures rose $0.59, or 1%, to $59.17 a barrel on Monday (January 20), and will not close today due to the US holiday. Brent crude oil futures closed up $0.65, or 1 percent, at $65.50 a barrel on Monday. Crude oil supply in the Middle East is at risk and the morale of crude oil bulls is encouraged. WTI crude oil futures in the U.S. peaked at $59.66/barrel, while Brent crude oil futures peaked at $66.00/barrel.

Fundamentals positive factors:

Iraq’s al Ahdab oil field was forced to shut down, with an average daily production of 70000 barrels / day as protests intensified. At the same time, Libya’s two major oil fields were forced to close because of the closure of an important pipeline.

According to the latest monthly report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday (January 16), the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2020 will remain unchanged, maintaining 1.2 million barrels / day. IEA said there are risks in Iran’s crude oil supply, mainly affected by the situation in the Middle East. U.S. economic sanctions against Iran and domestic protests threaten the country’s oil supply. It is worth noting, however, that internal security problems in Iraq are limiting the country’s production plans, which may make it difficult for global crude oil supply to meet long-term demand growth. At the same time, crude oil demand of OECD member countries is expected to decrease by 115000b / D in 2019, but it is expected to increase by 275000b / D in 2020, due to the improvement of GDP growth and the decrease of trade risk.

U.S. crude oil inventories fell 2.549 million barrels to 425.5 million barrels in the week ended January 10, according to a report released by the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday, with the market predicting a decrease of 343000 barrels.

According to the latest survey released on Monday (January 6), crude oil production of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) fell in December due to Nigeria and Iraq’s more strict compliance with the production reduction agreement, and Saudi Arabia, the main exporter, further cut crude oil production before the new production restriction agreement was reached. According to the survey, OPEC’s crude oil production last month was 29.5 million barrels per day. It’s down 50000 BPD from the revised figure in November. Improvements in Nigeria and Iraq, which had previously failed to meet production reduction commitments, helped the implementation rate rise from 153 per cent in November to 158 per cent in December.

Fundamentals negative:

The International Monetary Fund’s optimism about global economic growth has declined, warning that the outlook for the global economy remains weak and there is no clear sign of a turning point. In the latest world economic outlook report, the IMF lowered its forecast of global economic growth to 3.3% in 2020, 3.4% in October last year, and 2.9% in 2019, 3% previously. The main reason for the downward correction is the slowdown in India’s economic growth. The global economic growth rate is expected to be reduced to 3.4% in 2021 and 3.6% in October last year

Data released by Baker Hughes on Friday (January 17) showed that the number of active US oil wells increased by 14 to 673 in the week ending January 17, the first increase in four weeks. There were 852 in the same period last year. According to the latest EIA report, the growth rate of US crude oil production is expected to slow to 3% in 2021, the lowest since 2016. At that time, crude oil production in the United States recorded a decline, while in 2019, it increased by 18% to a record high of 12.2 million barrels / day. Meanwhile, US crude oil production is expected to further climb 9% to 13.3 million barrels / day in 2020.

Crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, rose 342000 barrels last week in the week ended January 10, after falling for nine consecutive weeks, according to a report released by the EIA on Wednesday. U.S. refined oil inventories rose 8.171m barrels, a three-week increase, with the market predicting an increase of 2.477 million barrels. U.S. gasoline inventories rose 6.678 million barrels, a 10 week increase, with the market predicting an increase of 3.642 million barrels. In addition, domestic crude oil production in the United States last week increased by 100000 barrels to 13 million barrels per day, a record high.

The organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Wednesday (January 15) that despite the increase in global demand, OPEC expects the organization’s crude oil market demand to decrease in 2020, as competitor production growth will grab market share and the United States is expected to set another production record. In its market report, OPEC predicted that in recent years, driven by shale gas, U.S. crude oil production has soared, and the total U.S. crude oil production is expected to break the milestone of 20 million barrels / day for the first time. Meanwhile, OPEC said that in the fourth quarter of 2020, the total output of crude oil and liquid fuel in the United States will reach 20.21 million barrels / day, almost meeting the demand of 21.34 million barrels / day in the United States. OPEC, on the other hand, has raised its forecast for supply growth in non OPEC oil producing countries in 2020, which is expected to increase by 180000 barrels per day to 2.35 million barrels per day from 1.86 million barrels per day in 2019.

The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) pointed out in the short-term energy report that the US crude oil production is expected to increase by 1.06 million barrels / day to 13.3 million barrels / day in 2020, higher than the previous expectation of 13.18 million barrels / day. In 2021, the crude oil production of the United States is expected to further increase by 410000 barrels / day to 13.71 million barrels / day.