1、 Price trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone fell in a weak way. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of April 23, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone was 5480 yuan / ton, 13.02% lower than that of the same period last month, 46.97% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the market of cyclohexanone fell in a weak way, crude oil and pure benzene fell, bad news was released, the cost side was lack of support, the market was pessimistic, the demand side had not improved significantly, the market was cautious and the transaction atmosphere was general. The market price of cyclohexanone in East China is 5600-5800 yuan / ton in cash, and the actual order is mainly negotiated.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, pure benzene: East China’s pure benzene dropped slightly to 2800-2900 yuan / ton, while Shandong’s pure benzene center of gravity weakened to 3500-3600 yuan / ton. Pure benzene closed weaker, but crude oil rebounded overnight, which is expected to support the market mentality to some extent. East China’s negotiation reference is around 2900 yuan / ton, and Shandong’s is about 3400 yuan / ton.

Caprolactam: caprolactam is still dominant. In terms of supply and demand, Shijiazhuang refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. is about to produce caprolactam, and the downstream polymerization plant has enough orders to start early delivery. However, due to the drop of chip price, it is difficult for manufacturers to accept high price raw materials, and the on-site operators have pessimistic expectations for the later market.

Adipic acid: the domestic adipic acid market is weak. At present, the raw material of pure benzene is still relatively high, the cost of adipic acid is acceptable, and the mood of wait-and-see spread in the field. Crude oil continued to fluctuate at a low level, which was bad for downstream purchase intention and cautious position filling. Near the end of the month, the factory has no clear attitude guidance, and the supply of goods for traders is limited. However, driven by the bearish outlook on the future market, the quotation is lowered, and the mentality of shipment still exists.

3、 Future forecast

The market lacks the support of good news, and under the influence of multiple negative circles, the business community cyclohexanone analysts expect that the short-term market of cyclohexanone will continue to operate in a weak way.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business association, as of April 21, based on the quotation of several sample enterprises, at present, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market is around 6166 yuan / ton, down by 1.07% compared with the previous day (April 20, the market reference average price is 6233 yuan / ton), down by 70 yuan / ton, and up by 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month (April 1, the market reference average price is 6066 yuan / ton), Up 1.65%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: from April to now, the trend curve of domestic butanone market can be described as “lying s” curve. At the beginning of the month, the butanone market continued to decline in March. There were few orders in the market, the inquiry atmosphere was poor, the factory could not bear the inventory pressure, and the price continued to decline. On March 3, the market reference price dropped to around 5900 yuan / ton, which is the lowest price in the current month. The weak market position has been running for nearly a week until September 9. On October 10, there was a turnaround in the domestic butanone market, and the market price slightly increased. On November 11, according to the data monitoring, the market reference average price of butanone was around 6066 yuan / ton, which was about 150 yuan / ton higher than the previous days. Next, the market rose for two days in a row. To the 15th, the reference average price of butanone market was 6234 yuan. Tons, which is the highest price at present. Compared with the previous 11 days, the average price increased by 200 yuan / ton, and the market kept stable and high until the 20th. Up to the 21st, the market has been weak. At present, the butanone market in North China has fallen, with the reference to the factory price of 6100 yuan / ton; the butanone market in South China has been lowered, with the reference to the factory price of 6100-6200 yuan / ton; the butanone market in East China has fallen, with the reference to the factory price of 6100 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in the first ten days of April, as soon as the civil liquefied gas market changed from March to March, the overall market rose significantly. On the 15th, the market reference average price was around 3350 yuan / ton, up nearly 700 yuan / ton, or 25.31% compared with the beginning of the month (2673 yuan / ton on April 1). From 17R to 20, the civil liquefied gas market in Shandong, East China and North China began to reduce the price one after another. As of the 21st day, the mainstream price of liquefied gas market in Shandong Province is about 2900-3150 yuan / ton, and the market transaction is normal; the mainstream price of liquefied gas market in North China is about 2850-3000 yuan / ton, and the market transaction is normal; the mainstream price of liquefied gas market in East China is about 2820 yuan / ton, and the market transaction is normal.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business club, affected by the decline of crude oil again, it is expected that in recent days, the market price of butanone may still fall, but the decline is limited, and the overall weak operation is the main factor.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China fell. As of April 21, the price of phthalic anhydride in ortho phthalic method was 5100 yuan / ton. In recent years, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has dropped sharply, the demand of plasticizer industry is normal, and the market of phthalic anhydride has declined slightly.

In recent years, the market price of domestic phthalic anhydride has fallen, the market demand of phthalic anhydride is poor, the market price of phthalic anhydride is poor, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has fallen slightly. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the site is more than 60%, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the procurement of downstream plasticizer industry is general, the market price of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is poor, and the market price of phthalic anhydride drops slightly. As of the 21st day, the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China was lower, but the high-end transactions in the market were blocked. The main flow of the negotiation of neighboring France’s source of goods in East China was 4900-5300 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene’s source of goods was 4500-4800 yuan / ton. The main flow of the quotation of phthalic anhydride in North China was 4900-5300 yuan / ton, and the wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride in the market was still there. The market price of phthalic anhydride was generally low.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 4200 yuan / ton. The price of imported phthalic anhydride in the port area is stable and stable temporarily. In the near future, the price of phthalic acid in the port area is general and the price of phthalic acid in the external market is stable temporarily. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. Affected by the fluctuation of the price of phthalic anhydride upstream raw material, the price of phthalic anhydride market has slightly dropped.

Downstream DOP raw material phthalic anhydride price fluctuation adjustment, isooctanol price fluctuation drop, DOP raw material cost fluctuation drop, DOP enterprise low load operation, DOP manufacturer inventory more. DOP price fell, PVC enterprise equipment started low, customer procurement enthusiasm picked up. Plasticizer prices fluctuated and fell. DOP market quotation is about 6700-7000 yuan / ton. The upstream ox price trend is temporarily stable. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will be slightly lower in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on April 13, DME again ushered in the rising market driven by liquefied gas (Civil), but the late positive was limited, and on April 20, it returned to the downward trend. On April 13, the average market price of dimethyl ether (Henan) was 2686.67 yuan / ton, and on April 21, the average price was 2650 yuan / ton, with a decline of 1.36% and an earthquake amplitude of 5.58%.

2、 Market analysis

From April 13 to 21, DME rose first and then fell, and the trading atmosphere of the market was weak from improved. As of April 21, Hebei Yutai, Shanxi orchid, Dezhou shengdeyuan and other devices had been shut down for maintenance; Henan Yima Xinyuan dimethyl ether device failed, so no offer was made temporarily. The ex factory price of Shengxin dimethyl ether in Qinyang, Henan Province is 2590 yuan / ton, and that of Henan xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is guaranteed. The ex factory price of dimethyl ether in Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2700 yuan / ton, that of Henan lankaohuitong is 2600 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Yuhuang is 2600 yuan / ton.

In the early stage, the market of dimethyl ether (Henan) continued to rise, with a good trading atmosphere. Propane market surged on April 12, driving the civil LPG market up. Dimethyl ether rose on the back of this positive trend, especially Henan xinlianxin raised its price for 4 consecutive days. Under the mentality of buying up in the lower reaches, actively enter the market to replenish goods. However, the propane Market reversed sharply, the civil use of liquefied gas lacked support, and the rise slowed down. DME rationally recovered under this influence. On April 20, the market of dimethyl ether ushered in a downward trend. The trading atmosphere of the market was significantly weaker than that of the earlier stage. The decline of civil LPG affected the market mentality. The downstream market was delisted in a rational way, with the focus on wait-and-see. Among them, Henan xinlianxin implemented the 2-day minimum policy.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 15th week of 2020 (4.13-4.17), there are 5 commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top 3 commodities are liquefied gas (8.62%), dimethyl ether (4.47%) and MTBE (3.86%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are WTI crude oil (- 12.70%), Brent crude oil (- 11.63%) and naphtha (- 10.17%). This week’s average was – 1.58%.

3、 Future forecast

At present, international crude oil has fallen sharply, affecting market mentality. The civil trend of liquefied gas is weak, which has some impact on DME market. And with the completion of the early replenishment, the downstream market mainly consumes inventory, which is expected to fall in the short term.

On April 21, the sulfur commodity index was 30.18, down 2.74 points from yesterday, down 70.94% from 103.84 (2011-11-02), the highest point in the cycle, and up 17.02% from 25.79, the lowest point on February 24, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the sulfur production price in East China fell 8.33% to 550 yuan / ton on the 21st. The domestic sulfur market has a cold performance, the enthusiasm of downstream market procurement is not high, the port inventory is high, the consumption is slow, in the end of spring ploughing with fertilizer, the export of phosphate fertilizer is not clear, the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the attitude of the industry towards the future market is not stable. At present, the domestic supply and demand performance is stagnant, the downstream follow-up is insufficient, the trading atmosphere of the sulphuric acid market is sluggish, and the supply and demand in the market lacks the guidance of substantive information, so the buyer and the seller have different forecasts for the future market.

On Tuesday, refineries in various regions adjusted their prices according to their own delivery conditions. Sinopec Jinling Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reduced the prices of solid and liquid sulfur by 30 yuan / ton, East China by 540-680 yuan / ton, and liquid sulfur by 480-600 yuan / ton. Sinopec’s prices in North China were temporarily stable. Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reduced the prices of solid sulfur by 70 yuan / ton, Qingdao refinery by 50 yuan / ton, and Shandong by solid sulfur The price of sulphuric acid is 550-560 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: it is expected that the domestic sulfur market will be weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, on April 20, the nickel price rose sharply to 101216.67 yuan / ton, 3.14% higher than the previous day, up 0.40% year on year. Shanghai nickel opened at 98970 yuan, followed by a sharp rise in price, closing at 102300 yuan, up 3.29%. LME3 ended at $12385, up 2.61%.

2、 Market analysis

Supply blocked: at present, the production and transportation of nickel mining area in the Philippines is suspended until April 30. Last week, only 8 ships were loaded, far less than the 23 ships in the same period last year. If the supply is restored at the end of April, it is estimated that the metal loss will be about 30000 metal tons, and if it is restored at the end of May, the metal loss will reach 70000 metal tons. On the Indonesian side, the six lines put into operation this year are lagging behind the release increment of this month, Jinchuan The maintenance of two lines in Indonesia affected the supply of nickel and iron, and the epidemic also affected production efficiency.

In terms of inventory, LME inventory increased by 1242 tons to 330000 tons, while domestic inventory in the previous period decreased by 179 tons to 28000 tons, bonded area inventory decreased by 1700 tons to 17900 tons, and inventory in three areas increased by 363 tons to 276000 tons on a month on month basis, an increase of 61000 tons compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 64000 tons compared with the beginning of the year.

Downstream rise: the downstream stainless steel price rose nearly one thousand yuan in two weeks, which led to a substantial increase in spot price and supported nickel price.

3、 Future prospects

Future forecast: the supply of nickel is blocked, and the price of stainless steel in the downstream is rising, which forms support for nickel. It is expected that the short-term nickel price shocks are relatively strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the large scale list of business agencies, the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China rose and fell sharply from April 10 to April 18. The prices on April 10 and April 18 were 5957 yuan / ton, with no increase or decrease. However, the highest price was 9446 yuan / ton from April 12 and 13, with an amplitude of 58.56%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Product: the price of propylene in Shandong Province fell in shock last month, and dropped sharply again at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of more than 15%. On the first day, the price continued to decline by 100-200 yuan / ton, and on the second day, it still declined by 50 yuan / ton. On the third day, the price of some enterprises slightly increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. After the Qing Dynasty, the price of propylene increased steadily. On the seventh day, the price began to rise by 100 yuan / ton, and on the tenth day, it rose by 200-300 yuan / ton, while on the 11th day of Saturday, it rose by more than 1000 yuan / ton. On the 12th day of Sunday, it continued to soar by 1000-5000 yuan / ton, Monday After the sharp rise on weekends, the market may need to digest, and the price remained unchanged on the 13th. On the 14th, most of the enterprises’ prices dropped significantly by 1000 yuan / ton, and some of them recovered to the price before the sharp rise. On the 15th, the price dropped more than 500-1000 yuan / ton, and on the 16th, the price continued to drop by 200 yuan / ton. On the 17th, the price still fell by 400 yuan / ton. On the 18th, Saturday, the market made up for the drop. Saturday, the transaction was concluded Between 5850-6300 yuan / ton, the mainstream price is 5850-6000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, affected by the international situation, many countries have introduced production reduction policies to improve the crude oil market, but recently the crude oil price is not ideal and fluctuates frequently. Last Friday, the crude oil price rose slightly, but it is reported that it declined in the later period, so it has a certain negative impact on the future market of propylene.

Under the influence of public health events, the modified special material in PP is melt blown cloth raw material, and the price is soaring. However, PP futures returned to rationality last week after the previous surge. In the near future (April 10 to April 18), PP increased by 10.05% with an amplitude of 19.18%, which had less positive impact on propylene.

Recently (April 10 to April 18) acrylic acid market continued to rise, up as high as 30.94%, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.

In the near future (April 10-18), propylene oxide Market is similar to propylene market. After the rise, it fell, with an increase of 4.39% and an amplitude of 21.05%, which has little impact on propylene.

Recently (April 10 to April 18), epichlorohydrin increased continuously, with an increase of 9.74%, which had a certain positive impact on propylene.

Recently (from April 10 to April 18), the price of n-butanol in China fell slightly after rising, with an increase of 25.46% and an amplitude of 31.37%, which had a small positive impact on propylene.

Recently (from April 10 to April 18), octanol market also fell slightly after the upward shock, with an increase of 12.30% and an amplitude of 16.09%, which had a slight positive impact on propylene.

Affected by the epidemic situation, the isopropanol market, as one of the raw materials of foreign disinfectants, continued to rise steadily in the near future (April 10 to April 18), with an increase of 15.14%, which still had a positive impact on propylene.

The phenol Market in Shandong Province recently (April 10 to April 18) rose steadily, with an increase of 15.17%. However, the subsequent weakness has limited positive impact on propylene.

The acetone market in Shandong Province recently (April 10 to April 18) also rose steadily, up 29.55%, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of business and chemical branch, although the international crude oil market has reached an agreement to reduce production, the demand is not strong and the market is volatile, so the impact on propylene is limited. While the downstream PP futures have begun to return, and although other downstream markets have a positive impact, they are unable to continue. Now, the propylene price has fallen to the level before the surge, and it is expected that the propylene price will start to stabilize in recent days, not excluding the possibility of small shocks.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on April 20, the domestic PTA spot market price maintained a slight decline. The average spot market price was 3314 yuan / ton, down 0.90% compared with the previous trading day, down 49.42% year on year. The main futures market closed at 3412, down 64 or 1.84% from the previous trading day.

At present, due to the centralized volume of transactions at the end of March, the spot liquidity supply is abundant, and PTA continues to maintain a high level of more than 92%, with relatively sufficient supply. In terms of plant, 340000 ton PTA plant of Tianjin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was overhauled on April 17, and it is planned to be overhauled for one month. The 600000 ton PTA plant of Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was restarted over the weekend. The 500 thousand ton PTA unit of Taiwan Ya Dong Petrochemical line 2 started to stop for maintenance today (April 20th) and is scheduled to be maintained until July.

Crude oil market, last week, due to OPEC + production reduction less than expected, but not enough to offset the sudden drop in demand caused by public safety and health prevention and control, the crude oil rally was blocked and fell. At the same time, with the sharp increase in U.S. crude oil inventory and the decline of 9.3 million barrels per day global oil demand, the oil market was bad news, and the cost support was insufficient. However, due to the surging demand of the global mask market, domestic polyester staple fiber, polyester chips and other downstream production and sales are picking up, PTA has been supported by the rising demand. At the same time, after the production and sales volume at the beginning of the month, the inventory pressure of polyester factory has been relieved, and the polyester profit has been maintained at a relatively good level at present, the unit maintenance plan has been reduced, and the polyester starting load has been maintained around 83%. However, the overall transaction atmosphere in the downstream polyester filament market continues to be light, and the prices of mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are still stable. At present, the price of polyester poy150d / 48F is 5050-5350 yuan / ton.

Xia Ting, an analyst with business club, believes that the end support of crude oil’s sharp drop in cost has been weakened, the quotation of mainstream polyester factories in the downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has been temporarily stable, the overall production and sales performance is weak, the purchasing sentiment of weaving and texturing is still not high, and there is a possibility of further decline in the start-up of terminal links. Demand has cooled, PTA supply has continued to increase, and supply and demand pressure remains. PTA market is expected to continue to fluctuate and weaken.

1、 Price data

This week (4.13-4.17) the price of ground refined petroleum coke decreased slightly. According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries was 1080.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1055.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 25 yuan / ton in the week and down – 2.31% in the week.

On April 17, the petroleum coke commodity index was 82.06, unchanged from yesterday, 47.26% lower than 155.59 (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 22.68% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the overall delivery of refined petroleum coke this week is general, the operating rate of refining is increased, and the inventory pressure of the refinery is large.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is 22.76 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 19.87 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down by – 12.70%; Brent crude oil is 31.48 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 27.82 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down by – 11.63%. Although OPEC + production reduction meeting achieved production reduction, it was less than the expected quantity. In addition, with the continuous increase of US crude oil inventory, the demand of crude oil market is expected to decline sharply, and the international crude oil price continues to decline. Downstream: some calcined coke burning enterprises will produce, and the overall demand of downstream enterprises is general. The operating rate of downstream carbon enterprises is low, and the demand is general. The price of electrolytic aluminum is supported by cost, and the price has increased. According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market as of April 17 is 12016.67 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 15th week of 2020 (4.13-4.17), there are 5 commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top 3 commodities are liquefied gas (8.62%), dimethyl ether (4.47%) and MTBE (3.86%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are WTI crude oil (- 12.70%), Brent crude oil (- 11.63%) and naphtha (- 10.17%). This week’s average was – 1.58%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of petroleum coke of business association predict that the market price of petroleum coke in this week will drop slightly, mainly due to the increase of the operating rate of local refining enterprises, the increase of market supply, the large inventory pressure, the limited operating rate in the downstream, the general demand, and the strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke in the local refining industry will stabilize in the near future, and some enterprises will fluctuate slightly, with the price range of 950-1100 About yuan / ton.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, the spot nickel price fluctuated narrowly this week. The weekend price was 98133.33 yuan / ton, up 0.29% from 97850 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 4.6% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

The main nickel market in Shanghai opened at 97100 at the beginning of this week. Since then, the price is relatively strong. It rose sharply on Friday to close at 98970, up 1.71% in the week. Lennie closed at $12035 at the end of Friday, up 2.82% on a weekly basis.

In recent years, the price of stainless steel has continued to rise, the spot profit of stainless steel has been quickly repaired, and most domestic ferronickel plants are still in a loss state. Due to the tight supply of nickel ore and the recovery of downstream demand, ferronickel plants are reluctant to sell. In the near future, nickel supply end is affected by the epidemic. In April, nickel supply in the Philippines may decline significantly. The nickel ore inventory of main domestic nickel iron plants can still support January March. The nickel ore raw material inventory of some nickel iron plants is in short supply. The domestic nickel iron production may remain low in April and may.

3、 Future prospects

Future market forecast: the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is affected by the epidemic situation. In April, the shipment of nickel ore may be significantly reduced. The domestic port inventory of nickel ore continues to decline. In April and may, the output of nickel iron may remain low. In the later period, the price of nickel ore may rise to raise the cost of nickel iron. It is predicted that nickel may fluctuate strongly in the short term.